Like they say fools are always so sure! But its really hard to say how things turn out. I remember reading back in school how Amazon was so over prized and how it was doomed to fail (during late 90s). We all know how it turned out.

It could just be survivor bias. But the thing is - its hard to predict the future and to be certain of any prediction is profoundly inane.

PS: NOM to author. I really like David and I used to have the same opinion of FB at that time.

Correct, it's worth about nine times that.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FB