With Russia bumping against all of Europe, and China bumping against Japan/Korea/Taiwan/Vietnam/Malaysia/Indonesia/Phillipines, this is going to be bad for world stability.
https://www.facebook.com/notes/tarek-fatah/chinas-border-dis...
Putin is worth $200 billion, "After 14 years in power of Russia, and the amount of money that the country has made, and the amount of money that hasn't been spent on schools and roads and hospitals and so on" http://www.businessinsider.com/russias-former-largest-foreig...
China's rubber-stamp parliament is a billionaires' club http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/10/news/economy/china-billionai...
China pretty much made claim to all of the waters it's claim extends as far as the shore lines of Malaysia.
China also extends it's claim over waters outside of the immediate territorial waters by building artificial islands so far only within the 200 n/M of their exclusive economic zone which it claims extends it's coastal waters even further (this isn't exactly the case for this specific island (it's land mass was artificially extended, and a large harbor was built) but an important background point for the entire dispute).
So far countries have refrained from militarizing the islands too much sure they might post a couple of sailors here and there but this is a long rang air defense system capable of shooting down aircraft as far as 400km away, this is basically an S-300/400 [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_(missile)] "copy" with a much more advanced radar and better interceptors by all counts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KudfRyn3ZbA
interesting to watch it now, where will this lead to, and what is the strategic goal here?
protestations by the phillipines and other smaller outlying nations are again, the same as cuba or puerto rico or haiti protesting against guantanamo bay. the bottom line is that the dominant regional power dictates the terms and the smaller guys follow. if i were a western power i would spend just a modicum of effort pushing back against china but concurrently prepare to lose this battle.
It is also much easier to understand the strategic goals of China:
This "dispute" will eventually amount to nothing; it is mere posturing showing the Americans that any military action will be too costly.
In a couple of decades; Taiwan will join China in a manner similar to what happened to Hong Kong and Macau. This will happen when the wealth of the average mainland Chinese is compareable to that of the average Taiwanese and China will be Taiwan's absolutely dominant trading partner.
When this happens China will for purposes have broken American control of the South China sea.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_So...
In the 1980s I talked with a guy who had been a landing-craft driver for the Army in the early 1960s. His unit was sent down the Intercoastal Waterway to pick up an armored division in Florida. Fortunately for all, the tanks stayed on dry ground, and landing craft went back north.
Unlike HK or Macau, Taiwan is a fully democratic state and has been for decades. Also unlike people in HK or Macau, Taiwanese don't consider themselves Chinese.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/12/we-are-no-compatriots-of...
The only way China could annex the island would entering a war. That would be extremely ill-advised considering the US committed to defending Taiwan in that case (due to the Taiwan relations act).
Maybe ten years ago, I would say it would never happen.
However, fighting several wars in the middle east, the Russian annexation of Crimea and the US not doing anything, let alone NATO not doing anything, leads me to hesitate to say anything would be done to stop it. Maybe this changes over the next decade, but if it were to happen soon, I have my doubts the US would have the moral constitution to do anything to stop it.
I was mostly referring to the what I believe be the strategic thinking of the Chinese communists.
"Also unlike people in HK or Macau, Taiwanese don't consider themselves Chinese."
That is not my impression. But it is hard to gage for me.
Victory for Tsai Ing-wen, head of a party promoting independence from China, will likely usher in uncertain relations between Taipei and Beijing
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/taiwan/121031...
Foxconn (Taiwanese manufacturer for Apple) decision to invest a whopping $5 billion in India has caused unease in China as it marks the first top international firm opting for India amid a slowdown in the Chinese economy.
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-08-10/news...
Taiwan GDP per capita $30,000
China GDP per capita $3,000
Mark Hart: The Yuan Devaluation Still Has 50% To Go http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/01/mark-hart-the-yuan-devaluat...
Personally I'd rather bet on the CCP loosing/giving-up power than Taiwan joining the Mainland. And Hong Kong could possibly be one of the triggers.
Not to mention US loosing Taiwan [and South Korea] as huge allies would be almost as bad as loosing Israel. They won't let that happen.
"Shortly after Portugal's 1974 Carnation Revolution, which overthrew the Estado Novo dictatorship, the new government determined it would relinquish all its overseas possessions. In 1976, Lisbon redefined Macau as a "Chinese territory under Portuguese administration" and granted it a large measure of administrative, financial, and economic autonomy. Three years later, Portugal and China agreed to regard Macau as "a Chinese territory under (temporary) Portuguese administration".[17][45] The Chinese and Portuguese governments commenced negotiations on the question of Macau in June 1986. The two signed a Sino-Portuguese Joint Declaration the next year, making Macau a special administrative region (SAR) of China.[46] The Chinese government assumed formal sovereignty over Macau on 20 December 1999.[47]"
this is not a foregone conclusion. it could in fact (and probably will) remain independent like Singapore.
Wrt. Singapore. There is a still a bit of unconquered land between that and the mainland :-)
Now about 2/3 of the population identifies as Taiwanese, about 1/3 identifies as Taiwanese and Chinese and the percentage identifying as Chinese is less than the standard error of the surveys. The long term trend shows no sign of slowing down or reversing either.
If you're interested in the topic, Zhengda (aka NCCU) has an election study center and publishes their findings.
That said, Taiwan is a country of roughly similar population and economic clout as Australia. Standing by and ignoring an act of war on that scale would be devastating to international stability (and US security interests).
That would tip the balance towards US intervention.
Chinese source: http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_49e4b637010007hi.html I don't speak Chinese but it seems to translate rather well.
The original HQ-9 interceptor is stated to have 200km slant range, just as the Russian missile it was faithfully copied from.
And yes I said that the system initially was deployed with a range of about 200KM but they have made improvements since: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HQ-9#Variants
Most SAM's have different profiles and interceptors that cover targets with different capabilities this quite often limits their range, you can argue about the exact range and operational ceiling for the interceptors in question all day long it still doesn't change the fact that China has deployed one of the most sophisticated SAM's currently in operation on and island that they might not have full legal claim for which can threaten quite a big chunk of the air traffic over the south china sea.
