On the Road to Recap(abovethecrowd.com) |
On the Road to Recap(abovethecrowd.com) |
In which we'll start another cycle in about 4-5 years promoting "growth growth growth" and do the same thing over and over again. We're on track for our 3rd 7-year cycle (1995-2002, 2002-2009, 2009-2016), so if you're an entrepreneur and you time it right, the next 1-2 years is the best time to start because exits will be best around 5-6 year mark.
The stuff the government (and Fed) did in 2008 and since can't really be repeated. We could try even bigger fiscal stimulus (government spending rather than monetary policy), but there are too many people that will lose their shit over that happening. There's also not really any monetary policy tools that are left when money is free and the Federal Reserve owns trillions of dollars of household debt.
The overall financial system will probably do a bit better, unless the student loan bubble blows at the same time. The dollar amounts in tech are tiny compared to the housing or student loan markets; there's just not as much room to go downwards.
Housing/student loan market seems pretty tight to me. Students loans cannot be discharged and house lending standards are under strict scrutiny due to 2008.
Would be interested to see any #s you have though.