Tim Cook, the interview: Running Apple ‘is sort of a lonely job’(washingtonpost.com) |
Tim Cook, the interview: Running Apple ‘is sort of a lonely job’(washingtonpost.com) |
"Larry Page may seem to have an enviable life, but there are aspects of it that are unenviable. Basically at 25 he started running as fast as he could and it must seem to him that he hasn't stopped to catch his breath since. Every day new shit happens in the Google empire that only the CEO can deal with, and he, as CEO, has to deal with it. If he goes on vacation for even a week, a whole week's backlog of shit accumulates. And he has to bear this uncomplainingly, partly because as the company's daddy he can never show fear or weakness, and partly because billionaires get less than zero sympathy if they talk about having difficult lives. Which has the strange side effect that the difficulty of being a successful startup founder is concealed from almost everyone except those who've done it."
With the difference that unlike a poor single working mother, or some 40-something factory worker, etc., he can quit anytime, and has billions in the bank to show for it...
If you dismiss difficult aspects of a person's life because somebody else has it worse, then nobody actually has a hard life except for starving children in Africa. Maybe not even them: captives who suffer regular torture and indignity probably have it worse. Or modern-day slaves.
You just proved this part.
That quote from the essay reminds me of a Silicon Valley scene [1] where the CEO of the pseudo-Google company in the show gets vilified (rightfully so in the show) for complaining about how hard billionaires have it in this country.
I bet the creator's read PG's essay and were inspired by it.
http://www.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142405270230454950457...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-01-26/kleiner-p...
I don't get why people think Hooli is some pseudo-Google company. In the Silicon Valley universe Google clearly exists. Eric Schmidt was in their series premiere and the show's opening intro animation clearly shows Google and YouTube.
billionaires == jews?
Can something be more wrong?
As CEO of Apple, Cook is expected to deliver the Next Big Thing. So far, he hasn't, and he's running out of time. (Cars? Tough, low-margin business. VR? Niche market. Watches? Tried that. Robots? Not ready yet. Voice AI? Already doing that, need to improve. Services? Crowded field, no edge.)
I don't understand how people think they've tried the watch and failed. They've put out ONE version. The first iPod was Mac only and therefore didn't sell very well. When the iPhone launched you had to buy the device outright - no subsidy and it was lacking features that other phones had for quite a while. It was a few versions before it really took off. I think people shrugging off the watch are being incredibly short sighted (and I say this as someone who had one and sold it). It's not perfect for a mass market now but it can be. The software changes in watchOS 3 are really going to help towards that but in the long term this thing could become essential to your health and from interviews Tim Cook has done in the past it sounds like that's the direction they want to go once they've got the basic software and form factor down.
It's probably too early to write off watches thus. Technically they're probably in the 'not ready yet' category: another few rounds of improvement in size constraints, battery life and potential independence from a smartphone (especially as putting in more types of radio becomes more viable) could make a big difference. The aWatch really was too early, or at least too early to create Apple's trademark illusion of perfection in a bolt from the blue. The obvious contrast is the iPod, where Apple didn't enter the game until its distinctive strengths in UI/UX and overall quality could be applied to already-existing components (most famously the Toshiba HDD) and concepts ('Palm-Pilot-like sync', 'WinAmp clone' ...) to create such a lightning-bolt with an obvious 'value proposition' for the user. Or maybe some of the aWatch's faults are actually down to UI or design failings which weren't really forced by technical limitations, but those too can be fixed over time, with MS-style release-until-good iteration.
> VR? Niche market.
No wai! VR/AR is also in the 'not ready yet' bucket; and it's not quite ready yet, rather than being another decade away or something. Between stereo cameras on smart devices, eye-tracking hardware for foveated rendering, and continued increase in flatscreen resolutions, in a handful of years VR is going to reach the 'iPod point' where there are no technical or price barriers to Apple putting together a product that's strongly desirable to a mass market. The initial 'system-seller'/'killer app' probably won't be anything very 'natively' 3D but, basically, 2D screens pulled into the VR space, likely with some modest 3D/stereoscopic enhancements. Think 'VR mobile' rather than 'mobile VR', as it were: VR as a way to escape the screen-is-too-damn-small/device-is-too-damn-big/screen-is-too-damn-close curve that box-with-a-screen-on-it mobile devices are trapped on. Likewise the trade-off between staring down, the gorilla arm and messing with a plastic widget. It won't make box-with-a-screen-on-it devices (including clamshells) obsolete, because being blindfolded by a VR screen is unviable or too scary or dangerous in many everyday mobile-device use contexts. (Mobile AR has a much better shot in those situations, but AR screen technology still faces real hurdles on the way to 'iPod point'.) But it doesn't have to: there are enough wealthy US baby boomers who take long journeys by air that Apple could probably have a hit device if it sold the thing only to them. (And remember, they're all farsighted.) Image sharpness won't be "retina" at first, but it will be good enough thanks to continued progress in LED pixel densities, especially for things that people are happy to do on a now-high-res-but-still-small smartphone screen. (And wealthy retirees aren't the most demanding judges of image sharpness.) Foveated rendering will keep the CPU/GPU burden down to within the abilities of a contemporary Appley mobile device. (Especially since you don't need to put the CPU/GPU on the damn headset! Apple can happily run a cable down from the HMD to an iPad-to-iBook-sized device.) Head tracking will be fully positional and good enough.
Mission statement: "Act like the CEO. But you are allowed to pass the hardest 10% of your tasks to Larry. 10%. Not more.".
By the way, Sundar is a genius- absurd level of memory recall, extremely logical (vulcan-class), and pretty personable.
But with time then freed up, the question becomes how you spend it. Do you vacation? Do you start a side project, or a bevy of them? Or, do you invest your time and energy into your highest point of leverage: your existing large, profitable company.
In the latter case, you still want ultimately to be CEO. Your goal then is to structure the company, if possible, so that it continues to fulfill its mission and to grow while you focus on the things that you feel are most important and which are most well-suited to your interests and perceived talents. For some company+CEO pairs, that may in fact be the core operations themselves. For others, it may be building toward conglomeration or investing in strategic R&D.
This helps explain the Alphabet restructuring. But it doesn't mean that suddenly Page has less to worry about. He could if he chose to step back, but as long as he feels drive to make an impact, to make the highest use of his talents, and that he can do that largely through Google/Alphabet, he'll want to remain CEO, he'll want to work hard at the company, and he'll still feel the (admittedly self-induced, chosen) pressure.
Let's also quickly look at each of the aforementioned areas of focus for a CEO who continues to have drive and believes that drive is best leveraged at their existing large, profitable company.
For some company+CEO pairs, that may in fact be the core operations themselves.
Apple is a good example here. Tim Cook could delegate whatever aspects of Apple's operation that he likes. But if he continues to have drive and views Apple as a great way to realize that drive, then his best use today is in focusing on Apple's core operations. This is because Apple's continued growth and profitability is, today, almost entirely dependent on continuing to frequently ship cutting-edge devices worldwide. That requires a very heavyweight operation, and there isn't much "revenue momentum". Apple gains network effects in the power of its brand, its distribution, and its manufacturing chain. But its revenue growth and profitability are dependent, today, on each new generation of devices. Thus, Cook had best focus there, while trying simultaneously to build toward greater "revenue momentum" in the future.
Compare this to Google, who just like Apple is also primarily dependent on one profit stream. But Google's profit stream in advertising has more self-sustaining revenue momentum. This allows Google to have focused on other areas outside the core profit operation earlier, and helps explains the Alphabet restructuring. Apple may get there one day (and it seems to me they are trying to... witness all of their recent attention on and talk about services/subscriptions), but they're not there yet. In addition, Cook is an admittedly operations focused executive, while Page is more inclined toward R&D and long-term strategy.
In combination, these things help explain how both Cook and Page can delegate as much as possible, but still remain very busy (and in very different ways) at both of their companies.
The push toward conglomeracy that Google is undergoing now is largely based on build-outs of internal brands ad operations through R&D. Others, like Disney and GE, went down the conglomeration path through combinations of internal buildouts and acquisitions. While building a conglomerate, the CEO is wisest to delegate on the core profitable operations and focus on the conglomeration process itself. This is what we're seeing with Google now, and something we may see in the future with Apple. After achieving a large and diversified conglomeration, the CEO is wisest to focus on governance/guidance/measurement and strategic guidance of the groups as a whole. This is what we've seen with GE, Disney, et al in the past.
`And while he’s quick to trumpet Apple, he is also unassuming, quickly noting, after saying his job can be “lonely,” that “I’m not looking for any sympathy. CEOs don’t need any sympathy.”`
Which is exactly why Tim Cook is such a great guy.
In the startup world, I wonder whether founders can find success in emulating Cook -- or whether a harder-edged, harder-driving style is required.
"It’s sort of a lonely job. The adage that it’s lonely — the CEO job is lonely — is accurate in a lot of ways. I’m not looking for any sympathy. You have to recognize that you have blind spots. We all do. Blind spots move, and you want to not just have really bright people around you, but people who will push on you and people to bring out the best in you. People that amplify whatever you’re good at. And then also the people who plug the parts that you’re not and may never be."
Unless Tim & co. decide to confront the reality that they're stepping up "vertical integration" model using the Robber Baron playbook when it comes to the actual arts, I think his "social responsibility" comments mean fuck-all. Go ahead, build a new environmentally friendly compound, that's great, good on you. And how's about that 30% you skim off the top of every non-Drake "Most-Favored-Nation" artist who has to go through your channels or lose out?
Actions about social responsibility speak louder than words, and right now, Braeburn Capital and billions of dollars being slushed around offshore rather than pay the tax to re-patriate those funds means talk is cheap. I'm a contrarian by nature, but I know a puff piece when I see it. So Tim is good at hitting softball questions, whoop-dee-whoo.
Of course it's lonely and isolating at the top of the mountain - just look at Kurt Cobain.
The Note 7 looks awesome due to it being waterproof and other features Apple hasn't bothered to include. Also, Google Now in terms of it understanding me is light years away from Siri, which I have used since 2011. Goigle Now's AI puts Siri to shame!
See ya Apple!
Yeah, because better CPU, GPU, camera(s), and such are not innovative enough...
>The Note 7 looks awesome due to it being waterproof and other features Apple hasn't bothered to include.
Yeah, for those of us using our phone on the shower it will be a god-send. Waterproof! Such innovation!
Overall, I want waterproof.. wireless charging... Google Now type AI vs. Siri. Their competitors have this .. iPhone 7 should have all or some of these features yet it won't.
Only good thing about the iPhone is it's more secure then Android. Putting my credit on an Android device to use Android Pay vs. Apple Pay is something I don't feel comfortable doing.
Per all my downvotes it looks like the majority still here love Apple. Personally I love innovation and Apple isn't innovating and or being the pioneer they use to be.
They're not. They're expected.
>Yeah, for those of us using our phone on the shower it will be a god-send. Waterproof! Such innovation!
Right...
> One day back then, he convened a meeting with his team, and the discussion turned to a particular problem in Asia. “This is really bad,” Cook told the group. “Someone should be in China driving this.” Thirty minutes into that meeting Cook looked at Sabih Khan, a key operations executive, and abruptly asked, without a trace of emotion, “Why are you still here?” Khan, who remains one of Cook’s top lieutenants to this day, immediately stood up, drove to San Francisco International Airport, and, without a change of clothes, booked a flight to China with no return date, according to people familiar with the episode. The story is vintage Cook: demanding and unemotional.
http://fortune.com/2008/11/24/apple-the-genius-behind-steve/
Less likely possibilities: was Cook talking to someone in the other direction and only noticed Khan? Was he thinking to himself Khan should leave immediately but wanted to give him some time to make the call himself?
Cook didn't start up Apple. I'm not saying his humble/listening approach can't work for startups, but it may not be practical when time/money are scarce. No doubt he feels pressure to perform, but he certainly isn't wondering where his next meal will come from, or if he'll be hirable again in the future, should he make a mistake and some new venture fails.
And as battery life increases, bluetooth tech gets better reach, wifi can last longer on it, and cpu/memory can handle more things right on the device, its usability will only get better.
What did you like about that statement? Your interpretation made it sound like you didn't agree with it.
The tone of the sentence seemed to me to imply that some day the Apple Watch would be a hit, but I'm skeptical.
Watch isn't even primarily a watch - it's an iPhone remote. And that's getting into rarefied meta-product territory.
So unlike the iPhone and the home computer, both of which have obvious use cases, Watch is still trying to define a compelling reason for existing.
But this just highlights the current Apple problem. Cook designs products using a very simple heuristic - smaller, bigger, thinner, more colours: basically good enough.
Jobs used to use a different heuristic - magical, original, creative, obviously useful, with world-beating production values.
It's a completely different approach. And you can see that in Watch.
Watch has no magic. It's good enough - barely, more or less. But that's all it is.
And if you're aiming for good enough instead of magical, it's too easy to fall short and end up with not quite good enough - which is where many Apple buyers are feeling the current product lines are heading.
https://twitter.com/asymco/status/753226197442654208
Puts things into perspective.
Apple under Jobs could do that. There is nothing so far to show that Apple can do that without him.
In contrast, a phone being damaged because it fell and broke its glass etc, I've seen and heard stories of dozens of times.
And the kind of work, research and investment in getting new and improved cpus, gpus, cameras is hardly trivial.
If anything, the innovations mentioned (wireless charging, waterproof case) are both existing and trivial to adopt (if one wanted).
Possibly Cook looked at it as a teaching experience for Khan.
http://www.everysecond.io/apple/
This is how things it is per second for Apple. Even flying with a Rocket to China is simply too slow.
http://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/how-silicon-va...
Some parts of everyone's life are unenviable.
That said, I don't think it makes much sense to comparmentalize working lives into "enviable" and "unenviable" parts.
The end result is what matters, and the bottom line is that he has billions to show for it, can work as little or as much as he wants (the other stuff, that he's somehow "forced" is BS, he could take a decorative role in the company if he wished to), and he can retire at any time.
So what part should I show sympathy for? That, despite all these facts, he works e.g. 15-hour days? Well, so do tons of double-shifting dirt poor people, immigrants etc. Without the good parts, and despite their inclinations.
>If you dismiss difficult aspects of a person's life because somebody else has it worse, then nobody actually has a hard life
Not just "somebody else" -- 99.999% of the population. He has it better than statistically almost everyone on the planet. There are maybe 1000 or 10000 people in his position (net worth, age, etc.).
It's mind-boggling how bad it must be in some places. And yet, I'm sure that most residents of these "bad" places are probably happy day-to-day, hanging out with friends and family.
That's not much of a point though.
Sure, it's a spectrum instead of being a binary "has it good/has it bad". Nobody said otherwise.
But spectrum or not, Page is on the very very very top end of the spectrum. He is in the very end of the "has it good" category, with miles to spare from the rest 99.999% of the population.
That doesn't change because an American 2-shift working 20K/year single mom has it better than an African modern-day-slave.
Hate your day job? Don't do it. Take the money and do something you'd rather be doing. Sail all day. Start a weird Russian nesting doll collecting hobby. Start a band and pay professional musicians to play with you. Whatever. Hate cleaning? Hire staff. Hate child care? Hire a nanny. Hate your wife? Get a divorce and hire / find a new one.
Most people don't have any of these options. They have the option to keep the short-term highest-paying job they can sustain in order to e.g. Pay for a mortgage and food.
At that point, you could literally do almost whatever you want (except e.g. buy true love, fulfillment, etc). If working all day makes someone feel fulfilled, maybe do that, but billionaires all have the luxury of being able to not do that, or not do anything if they don't want, and be 100% fine.
Money isn't everything. Even if you have it, some things about life can be difficult.
Whether or not you feel sympathy for it, the difficulty still exists.
"Light years ahead" is a common expression meaning "much more advanced".
And there's nothing that says it refers to time (except if we insist on the idea that technology advances with time, so every related analogy must refer to time).
But as an analogy it just as well means "it's much further ahead", as if we were speaking of a race.
Whilst it is true that parent didn't say that light years is a unit of time. But I find the general usage of the term incorrect :-)
Light years = distance traveled by light in 365 earth days!!
I'm not sure I follow. A wearable watch will have the biggest screen and better battery life combo than any other kind of practical wearable device I can think of (e.g. when not strapping a 3" screen and a battery pack the size of a Zippo on you and calling it a wearable).
>So unlike the iPhone and the home computer, both of which have obvious use cases, Watch is still trying to define a compelling reason for existing.
If not other things, Fitness/health/medical services would be a killer reason for existing.
The watch format is a dead end.
The user benefit of the iPhone was obvious. The user benefit of a wearable watch is not obvious at all. As soon as you call the product a "watch" you're constraining the possible design and the user expectations, and also competing with hundreds of years of history.
As for health - for now, FitBit does it better.
A permanent on-wrist health lab with medical record sharing would be amazing, but the technology for that is a long way away.
Meanwhile Pokemon Go has done a lot more for health than any wearable has.
https://www.niddk.nih.gov/health-information/health-statisti...
You don't have to convince the "populous", just enough tens of millions, and it would be a huge profit center.
And you don't have to convince them about exercise being fun or anything similar either -- just that not dying from heart attack and knowing your glucose levels and such is fun...
(There are 30 million people with diabetes in the US alone for example).
Think about this way. Imagine if you could spend the next year absolutely any way you want to (within bounds of laws and human possibility and decency).
Larry Page chooses to do his job instead of doing that. I can't imagine the unenviable parts of his job adds up to anything beyond a rounding error.
The one part I can have some sympathy for is the lack of any sort of privacy (and the accompanying inability to go for a walk in the park by yourself), but those aren't the points mentioned here, and are worse for your regular TV/Hollywood types, who have less privacy as they are more recognizable, and much less money.
This assumes said CEO is mindful and doesn't suffer from a mental disorder, like narcissism.
1. things which would clearly be useful, but couldn't be made yet or which cost too much to be practical. Example: flying cars, tablet computers.
2. things that could be done easily with current technology but hadn't been tried yet. Examples: Uber, Twitter.
A useful subclass of #2 is things which are known to be useful and have just become or are just about to become makeable. A good example is the Motorola Star-Tac, the first flip phone. It's a Star Trek communicator, made real.
Apple is good in that space. The Macintosh was of that type. Good UNIX workstations already existed, as did the Alto and Dorado, they just cost too much. The original 1984 Mac was a severely cost-reduced workstation - tiny screen, no hard drive, floppy disk storage only. It took a few more years to get a hard drive into the product, at which point it became useful.
The iPod was also in that space. It wasn't the first MP3 player. The iPhone wasn't the first smartphone, although it was the first to get rid of the keyboard.
So that's where Apple innovates - at the leading edge of what's commercially possible. They don't do long-term efforts to make a technology work, as RCA did with color TV and IBM did with computers.
They have voice control tech, they have end devices in all important form factors (TV, tablets, phones, watch), they have customers that like everything being tied together.
Only issue is that I'm not sure if they could do it with external partners making most of the devices (how do you guarantee quality to people? Premium home IoT is scarce for now), and making everything themselves would be a lot of different pieces to make.
Contrary to popular opinion, IoT is a dead end. The future isn't a million devices scattered around your home, but one capable robot that can be your servant and do everything for you.
Just grabbing something from the fridge and putting it on a plate is a massive task for robotics.
I do think it'll be more like 50 years to get self-driving cars being sold to the general public that can drive autonomously anywhere though.
HTC Vive sold 15,000 in ten minutes, and 100,000 in three months: http://www.roadtovr.com/htc-vive-sales-figures-data-100000-s...
"Digi-Capital cut its rather optimistic forecast for spending on virtual and augmented reality in 2020 to $120 billion, down from an earlier forecast of $150 billion." - http://fortune.com/2016/07/05/virtual-reality-htc-sales/
People in the 1890s and 1690s and so on probably thought they were plateaued on things too. What are the odds that we're the real plateau? It might not be in consumer tech, but it's out there, waiting for the right person to discover it.
Putting privacy concerns aside, imagine having contact lenses + voice and/or gesture control augmenting your life. Combine that with real-time health monitoring, all powered by your blood glucose.
That's hinging on still quite a lot of big technologies delivering and becoming mass-consumerable, but that is one way in which I can see technology and connectivity being taken to the next level in a similar sense that smartphones did.
Note: I am not particularly pro IoT nor wearables, but can see this becoming a thing in the future.
The one area where people's opinions did get the NBT right was probably in 2013, where the NBT was predicted to be enterprise.
It's okay. You're not an innovator. You're not a visionary. You can't see the horizon. You're probably fascinated by shiny objects; trapped in the superficial glaze, unable to comprehend the substrate.
The basic idea, that you don't seem to comprehend, is that it's not about the watch functionality at all. It's about having a 24/7 gizmo on you, with appropriate sensors to read medical data, movement etc, with enough screen and size to do a ton of things, from home automation to payments, etc, and eventually, and with
Here are things a smartwatch already does better or will eventually (as battery capacities get up to it) do better, with less bulk and faster access than a smartphone.
24/7 health monitoring Home automation controls Remote control (for tv, hifi, etc) Wireless Payments Panic button (health issue, crime, rape, whatever alert) Total phone operation (through voice recognition + wireless headphones) Navigation Music player (again, wireless headphones + voice/screen control) Show urgent notifications etc etc... ...tell the time.
It's a form factor common from the past notion of the watch, and simultaneously perfect for being always on you, always monitoring, small and non intrusive, and still having a large enough space for screen and battery.
>It's okay. You're not an innovator. You're not a visionary. You can't see the horizon. You're probably fascinated by shiny objects; trapped in the superficial glaze, unable to comprehend the substrate.
It's ok. You're not sophisticated. You're rude. You think in slogans. You can't see anything beyond an object being shiny or being made by Apple. You're probably fascinated by your own superficial analysis, and think your use cases are the measure of everything.
This is nowhere close to difficult to score. Larry Page 1, poor islander 0, won in regulation.
On the other hand, even with no more hits, they do still have incredible customer loyalty and a massively profitable product line. And a lot of people have predicted Apple's doom over the years, only to be proven wrong later. Betting on Apple for the next 5 years seems safe. I wouldn't bet on Apple for the next 20 years right now though.
It's also a narrative problem. Apple has the narrative going - Jobs is gone, can Cook really replace him? Google is mostly boring crickets as far as management narratives.
Working on the watch means that they aren't working on the Mac or the iPad. They are a victim of their own success in that a successful, well thought out, and profitable product like the watch is viewed as a neutral.
They've also flopped on the TV.
That said, their ability to execute is amazing.
You do know that all 3 share the same basic OS and technologies (kernel, filesystems, basic services, lots of UI and helper code, etc) just in differently tuned versions with a different "facade" on top, right?
Or that that they have different teams on each of these devices for everything that's not shared, teams that don't even communicate with each other...
I love the products. I probably have $15k of Apple hear in my home. But I'm not buying my kid a 3 year old computer to go off to college with at a premium price.
For a poor single mother or 40 something factory worker, their stress is more localised to their own family's well-being.
I think the problem here is that people try to compare or value stress on a scale of entitlement. I don't think it's that simple. I agree everyone deserves sympathy, because at the end of the day, we all experience stress on some level. One person's experience of stress is never more valid than another's.
Do you really think CEO's care about the help? Watch what happens if Google gets broken up, or takes a nose dive like so many companies. That Playland campus will just be a story we reminisce about. Larry Page, nor any of the others won't be crying in their wine.
They will take their safe money and do something else. Bill Gates had the hubris to think he could solve the worlds problems with his wealth. I always felt it was our wealth? He practically "strong armed" every pc user.
"Oh he's being negative! Let's get him with our finger." I don't think I'm being negative, just a realist. I have seen too many CEO's decimate companies when the wind starts to blow in another direction. They always fatten their stake.
I think people are selfish by nature. When they become wealthy, and the one in charge; they just get worse. I really can't think of an exception?
And yet, a vast majority of CEOs don't give a fuck about all this, and can destroy companies happily, and fly to another on their golden parachutes.
He is remarkable in every way possible, but I doubt this is true. World won't end, if he quits. Google and everyone in there will be just fine. Look at Jobs (and many other "irreplaceable" people), for example.
The latter was far worse – even though I knew we had a family safety-net.
I think it's reasonable to have more sympathy to problems of people struggling for well-being of their own family than "it's lonely at the top" kinds of problems.
"I have fired people. It is brutal. I have been fired. It's worse. So managers, please: Never solicit sympathy for the pain of firing people." – Reginald Braithwaite.
Expectations of course are ridiculously high.
Besides, this one version of the watch, outsold all competitor smart-watches 10 to 1 or more...
but you're right, there's alot of revisionist history when it comes to apple product success during Jobs era. iPhone didn't become this massive product til 2010 when the 4 was released. that device changed everything for them
If we ignore the iPhone 3G, which was the top-selling mobile phone of 2008. Revisionist history indeed.
The original 2007 iPhone was hugely successful out of the gate within the smartphone category, which it shaped and then dominated for the next few years.
2010 was a tipping point for people abandoning feature phones for smartphones, and there wasn't yet a comparable Android competitor. But the seeds were sown years earlier.
>> "The original 2007 iPhone was hugely successful out of the gate within the smartphone category"
And the Apple Watch is by far the best selling smartwatch. The market just isn't that big.
I think the 3GS was when I started seeing iPhone's everywhere in the UK at least and that was definitely the first really solid device where there weren't glaring feature omissions and performance problems. The market had also come to accept the high phone prices smartphones ushered in by that point too. Everyone I knew had a great PAYG deal back then so convincing them to go to a contract and pay 3-5x what they were used to took a few versions. I think with watchOS 3.0 the software is now at that point and we're just waiting on the hardware to offer something really compelling (which I think will be health related).
Because the Air and MBP want to phase out in favor of MBPr and Macbook (plain) and they've been waiting on Intel to deliver anything significant to warrant a new product line for ages. (Intel Skylake CPUs in form factors and energy consumption compatible with the MBPr line have been TBD until recently --some still are--, and in limited production yields still. And previous generation didn't even give any performance speed bump of 2 and 3 generations behind MBPr CPU, and in some cases, worse). In the cases where Intel delivered, Apple did too (e.g. Skylake iMac and Macbook).
The Mac Pro has a similar story (and isn't their first priority or biggest seller anyway).
That said, not sure about any "multi-year gaps" regarding the iPad. The iPad Pro 9.7 came out in March, and the iPad Mini 4 less than a year ago, on September.
Right. The fact that the smartwatch market is currently small doesn't exclude the possibility that it will grow huge, as happened with the smartphone market.
But if we want to continue with the analogy, there are other key differences between the Apple Watch and the early iPhone. I'll point out two.
First, even with the first-gen iPhone's feature omissions (its most commonly cited feature omission? No physical keyboard), the iPhone made the immense utility of the smartphone immediately obvious to most people who used it. Many people loved it. By contrast, the reaction to smartwatches from early adopters ranges mostly from cool to lukewarm.
Second, the first iPhone differentiated itself by nailing features that mattered most to most people. Compared to its leading competitors, the iPhone has 8 hours talk time vs 5 hours, 4+ GB memory vs 64 MB, 2 MP camera vs 1.3 MP, Wi-Fi vs no Wi-Fi, twice the screen size, built-in iPod functionality, etc. Nothing really came close in terms of its core features. The glaring feature omissions people complained about (no memory card slot, no physical keyboard (!), no third-party apps, no copy & paste) either turned out to be inconsequential or were obvious ways to make a great product even better. By contrast, the Apple Watch failed to identify key features that make it categorically better than the competition, and people are scratching their heads trying to think of "glaring omissions" that could make the smartwatch more essential.
The Apple Watch might have a future yet, but comparing it to the iPhone really doesn't work out in the Watch's favor.
Here's another youtube of it driving around on city streets https://youtu.be/_qE5VzuYFPU
Say what now? Perhaps you do not remember that most free email providers had a 2 or 4 MB mailbox limit and you had to delete emails as soon as you read them. When I signed up, Google was offering a whooping 1 gigabyte of storage - an improvement of 3 orders of magnitude. Gmail allowed attachments of up to 25MB which only served to make Hotmail's 4MB mailbox look absurd.
Other email providers (free and paid) struggled with spam filtering (and still do). GMails spam filters are magic, as far as I'm concerned - I never get spam and I also don't even bother checking my spam folder for false positives.
These 2 innovations alone can't be "moderate" by any stretch of the imagination.
It's not like email or webmail didn't exist before GMail, but I suppose you could argue that the revolutionary at the time use of AJAX plus gigabyte standard storage space, plus great spam filters was enough to transform webmail from a handicapped second-class citizen to something that tech experts would be happy to leave desktop email clients for.
But then, Google Maps was better than the competition, but enough better to be a revolutionary difference? I'd say no. But where do you draw the line between a good refinement of a pre-existing class of application to something that qualifies as revolutionary?
When Google announced turn-by-turn navigation in maps, Garmin's stock price took a tumble. Also, Street View hadn't ever been done before, surely that qualifies?