In Defense of Probability (1985) [pdf](ijcai.org) |
In Defense of Probability (1985) [pdf](ijcai.org) |
available athttp://www-biba.inrialpes.fr/Jaynes/cpreambl.pdf
It is probably (ha!) the most enlightening math book I have ever read.
That person already did the OCR cleaning (and the fonts are nicer).
Fuzzy logic recognizes degrees of occurrence, represented by any number between 0 and 1. Its proponents contend that this allows richer abstraction of the ways that humans actually perceive and reason about the world. In their view, probability is just a special case of fuzzy logic, using artificially restricted truth values.
If you're interested, check out Kosko's "Fuzziness vs. probability." International Journal of General System 17.2-3 (1990): 211-240 http://sipi.usc.edu/~kosko/Fuzziness_Vs_Probability.pdf
Donald Trump weighs 107 kg. Donald Trump weighs less than the sun.
"In this paper, it is argued that probability theory, when used correctly, is suffrcient for the task of reasoning under uncertainty."
The author, Peter Cheeseman, is a reputable figure and a solid practitioner. I'm sure he's just as annoyed that, on the second page, his own name is misspelled as "Cheesemart" ;-).
People may recognize him as a co-creator of the AutoClass software for Bayesian clustering, which was very popular in the late 1990s - the explanatory paper has 1700 citations.
please help clean up if you have time.
Apparently they had specifically debated about whether to weight it on population density. In other words should they try to make it be so that a 90% chance of rain means that 90% of the people listening to the forecast encounter rain? They decided not to on the principle that people do not care equally about forecasts. Farmers care more than city dwellers, and city dwellers who care about forecasts pay more attention when they are deciding whether to take a trip to the country. Sorting out all of these issues to produce a perfect forecast for the audience was a can of worms that they decided not to dive into, and instead they kept to the simple, unambiguous and easily measured percentage of land area.