North Korea fires missile over Japan(theguardian.com) |
North Korea fires missile over Japan(theguardian.com) |
Trump's inability to bluff (or communicate with precision in general) has really messed things up at this point. I mean, taking his words as spoken he has already threatened to nuke them if they even so much as continue issuing threats. Not only did they up the threat ante within hours of that remark (c.f. "attack the waters around Guam"), they've now put a weapon straight through an ally's airspace. Where do we go from here?
Meanwhile, everyone else works frantically on a backchannel plan that allows both Kim and Trump to save some face. I don't see how this happens unless brokered by China, who emerges the big winner on the world stage.
Have you studied a map around NK? To get a missile to a target that's free of people in international waters, you have to fly through at least one country's airspace.
I'm not sure you can say that about any of Trumos current advisers.
What do you propose that China can do after the regime change?
Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya and great examples that you cannot just throw away a dictatorship. What follows is practically a game of thrones of powers in the region which is a lose-lose situation for everyone, specially people of the "free'd" country and the neighbors.
I think it's wrong to compare North Korea to those countries. For one, the post-regime change problems in those countries have been caused by Islamic insurgencies, which is not something I'd expect to happen in NK.
Are you forgetting the Viet Cong so quickly?
Best case would likely be China just annexing the whole country and imposing martial law for the next ~30 years. At least people would be more likely to get fed, and the nukes would be safe-ish.
> No effort was made by the Japanese to shoot down the missile, which was launched early in the morning local time, triggering safety warnings.
Isn't that odd? Why mention this up front? Why not shoot this down given the warnings to the public indicated it was serious and a threat to life?
What tech do Japan use to shoot these down? Is it the same as the Yanks? What happens the moment they try to shoot one down and it sails right by?
As for tech, Japan mostly uses the same tech as the US, including THAAD, which is a ground-based radar and launcher, the Aegis system with the Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) which is a ship-based radar and launcher, and finally the Patriot system of ground-based radar and launcher. However, the Patriot's PAC-2 and -3 missiles are designed for missiles with a shorter range than ICBMs. All of them have data-sharing, so you can use an Aegis radar to track a missile for a THAAD battery to launch.
If you try to shoot a North Korean missile and miss, then either morale goes out the window if it was an NK test, or you have to fall back on the next line of defense (Aegis -> THAAD -> Patriot) and hope that it hits. The further the ICBM goes though, the lower pk you have since it's going faster and potentially has better maneuverability.
(Not that there's much they could usefully do to NK, AFAIK, but I'm curious about the principle.)
In today's world I'm skeptical to say the least.
Furthermore, if you don't trust reports from two nations' militaries, you definitely shouldn't trust anything on the Internet.
Hokkaido is beautiful this time of year, just sayin'
Why? NK has been launching missiles for quite some time now, and this fits reasonably well with their overall pattern of escalation. I don't really pay that much attention to NK, but this launch is utterly unsurprising to me based on my very limited and amateur interest in the subject.
I'm assuming the US Coast Guard is all over this kind of threat, but I don't know how hard it is to detect a bomb hidden aboard in some cranny, shielded by multiple layers of inches-thick steel.
How does North Korea benefit from an attack like that? The regime isn't suicidal, every move they make is to strengthen their own position.
inches-thick steel
Also, the Viet Cong were supported by a state, North Vietnam. They also weren't able to defeat South Vietnam; that took a withdrawal of US support and the actions of the regular North Vietnamese Army.
Why he needs to go precisely this far is a good question. Possibly because Trump has consistently misplayed his hand and made a series of stupid bluffs that were quick and easy to call. Kim is probably testing the edges of his geopolitical box, figuring that it's a bit roomier than he'd previously calculated.
The nukes are to make them too dangerous to invade.
So, Kim Jong-Un accidentally trips down the stairs and lands head-first on a bullet, along with his entire regime, and we all look the other way, and the US sends everybody lots and lots and lots of money.
NK is entirely dependent on China, and every administration has tried to get them to do something about their unruly vassal state. Unfortunately the status quo is what they desire most, so absent escalation they won't do anything.
The US will also have to convince China it was attacked in order to get support. Otherwise China will sit out any conflict, as ugly as it might get.
North Korea is really smacking the bear around with a stick here seeing how far they can go before they get bit.
Meanwhile, China can come out a big winner by seizing this opportunity to play the adult in the room while simultaneously embarrassing the US. Trump has handed this win to Xi in a tidy little gift box.
Of course, coming to terms with China will be an entirely different matter.
1: https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-th...
It would take thousands of cruise missiles to even dent their defenses. You can't use bombers until the anti-aircraft systems are down. It's going to take hours to finish the job, and even then who knows what they've launched in that time. Seoul is an easy target, very hard to miss.
So what happens now? Do we just let China keep protecting its puppet until the puppet has shipped a nuclear bomb to a port in Los Angeles? I hope not. I hope the world takes action before then.
Plus, China could cut or reduce the oil/gas supply any day to zero.... if they wanted.
What we should focus on is strengthening the democracy and the economy of ROK so when DPRK fails, ROK can be independent and strong like Germany was in the nineties in its unification. We are nowhere close.
To me it all feels like the classic "I dare you to punch me"
What a load of malarkey.
Interestingly enough, I see the emergence of common ground between Washington and Beijing on this issue. Sooner or later, China is going to calculate that Kim Jong-Un is more trouble than he's worth. When that happens, I can see the US and China arranging an unwritten agreement to take out Kim in exchange for the US's acceptance of the legitimacy of the North Korean state.
That would be a bitter pill for the US and its allies to swallow. But it seems preferable to the current course and speed of events, which basically have Kim developing usable ICBMs within a decade or less. To assume that a growing nuclear arsenal will somehow make Kim less of a threat, or endow him with a newfound sense of global stewardship and responsibility, is to place a particularly strange bet.
However the civilians part between Seoul and the DMZ, home to millions, is not going to fare exceedingly well - if the North decides to "waste" their ammo on civilians instead of the military that will be hitting them back.
1) https://www.quora.com/Can-North-Korean-artillery-really-kill...
Hopefully we can encourage or entice China into forcing systematic reform on a post-Kim DPRK. I don't think China will all too keen to foster democracy and open markets, so we shouldn't expect too much. But we can probably inveigh on China that an economically and socially stable DPRK is preferable to an unstable one, and that the global soft power China desperately craves will come when it is seen as having at least a shred of concern for human rights. Up to us and China to come to terms on exactly what the bargain would be. But my best guess is that it won't be something we'd currently find conscionable or acceptable.
My point is, from a realist perspective, our bargaining power is only going to incrementally diminish over time. Today we have the strongest hand of cards we are ever going to be delt, and it is a really shitty hand. Tomorrow our hand is going to be even shittier, and China's stronger. You dont need to stretch your imagination too far to see that we have no real way to win this game. Previous presidents have tried checking. Trump has tried bluffing. Sooner or later, someone at the table is going to call.