Global smartphone market drops 9% in biggest ever fall

Global smartphone market drops 9% in biggest ever fall(theguardian.com)

15 points by jansho 8 years ago | 10 comments

ksec 8 years ago |

I think it is worth pointing out, China has literally 3 - 4x the market size compared to 5 years ago. Apart from India, I think globally all the important market has reached a point of near saturation.

The transcript in Apple conference call actually had a question similar. There are still new customers coming into the iPhone ecosystem, but the number suggest that users are now taking slightly longer cycle upgrading their Phones. So while in terms of market usage it is still expanding slowly, the unit sales is flat / stable.

For Android this is more of a problem, since there are larger number of people switching to iPhone then vice versa.

0ld 8 years ago |

No wonder, there was no significant advances in the market since several years, only bells and whistles

I personally do not feel any need to replace my current phone (even though it's 4 years old) - the new one simply will not really add any significant value to my everyday smartphone experience

Yesterday I've replaced the battery because the old one was slowly dying (cost me around $8), and that's it

ocdtrekkie 8 years ago | |

Indeed. People still like to talk about the "post-PC era" becaust PC sales slowed. PC sales slowed because they reached a level where a PC remained "good enough" for an extended period.

Is the "post-smartphone era" coming soon?

As it is, the main issue with old devices right now is that most of them are Android, and basically unsupported. If the dominant mobile phone OS ever gets serious about long term support, sales will slow even further. Maybe that's why they haven't.

spicymaki 8 years ago | |

I am not sure that is true. Smartphone core performance improvements have been impressive. For example: just compare the geekbench mulitcore scores of the iPhone 6+ released from late '14 to iPhone 8+ today: ~2400 to ~10200 relative to battery scores of 1510 @ 2915mAh to 2764 @ 2675mAh. You are getting 4x core performance and 1.8x battery performance with ~10% less battery capacity in just 3 years. It is more than just bells and whistles.

ksec 8 years ago | | |

Multicore*

That is like saying you can have 4x more performance with the 16 Core Ryzen then your 4 Core Intel Chip.

The problem is multi core performance aren't as important as Single Core. And these improvment has lots to do with node size.

When it is good enough, more performance dont sell.

jansho 8 years ago |

with incremental increases in artificial intelligence now taking the spotlight.

Hmm that does nothing for me. I wonder what the next big device is? Augmented reality? (Yes there was Glass but maybe the next generation will be more thoughtful.)

What I personally fancy is a drone-phone with more human-like AI assistant. Yes a talking, flying superphone. Inventors: please credit me, will ya ;)

throwawaybbqed 8 years ago | |

Been done already. Sorry. Google for selfie drone. I think you can buy it from the Apple store. Also, people have done drones inside phone cases too. Not sure if this is a great business idea btw.

jansho 8 years ago | | |

I’ve seen them, and still think there’s lots of space for innovation. I’m not just thinking about its ability to fly, but as a dynamic, interactive AI companion. Just how the smartphone now isn’t a purely functional device for communication like a brick phone was.

Edit: maybe a scenario illustrates this best.

Me: “Mimi, what do you think of this? Is it right?”

Mimi peers, no doubt fancy AI tech whirring in the bg.

Mimi: “Looks good! I would also suggest recapping sohcahtoa.”

Ding-dong.

Me: “Mimi, can you get the parcel please.”

spicymaki 8 years ago |

I think the market is saturated. Most people in rich countries are getting the mobile experience they desire (anecdotally: just look at how addicted the user-base is) even at the price points they desire. The phones provide so much value that they do not need to be replaced as often.