I frequently come across a claim that only 2% or 5% or some other minuscule amount of applicants for most software development positions come close to being actually qualified. (Most recently in the discussion about Google hiring process, http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1690792).

I've been wondering what the overall number and therefore what number of remotely qualified applicants might be expected to be. Assume a junior position, asking for new grads to maybe a year or two of experience, at a non-Google-caliber company in a major city. Advertise on a job site or two, and perhaps with a couple of nearby technical post-secondary schools, but without spamming the posting absolutely everywhere. How many applications would you expect to receive in a week or two? Fifty, one hundred, five hundred? Answers from people who have done this and screened the resulting applications especially appreciated.

Thanks!