Does anyone else find this very hard to believe? I tried to track down the source [0, 1, 2] but I'm unsure how reliable "American Pet Products Association". It's describes itself as "The leading not-for-profit trade association serving the interests of pet product manufacturers and importers"
[0] https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2018/9/12/17831948/rover-wag-d...
[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2016/09/13/m...
[2] https://americanpetproducts.org/Uploads/MemServices/GPE2017_...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2016/09/13/m...
I assume vaccinations could make a reliable sanity check for pet ownership, but I am having trouble getting annual numbers.
They can't keep the good housecleaners because they quickly arrange better side deals. Eventually my ex did the same to get a consistent cleaner.
Some people have this idea that all human processes need to be mirrored in software. This type of gig work is best left to ad-hoc job boards like craigslist or kajiji or facebook marketplace. Why do we continue to try to force this into software?
I think part of it is that the dumber VCs out there are in such a rush to get in on the ground floor of "Uber for X", that they don't bother checking whether Uber's business model is valid for X. Uber doesn't have to worry about getting shut out by drivers and passengers making deals directly with each other, because people need rides at random and going directly to the driver means basically hiring them full-time. But that logic doesn't apply for someone coming on a fixed schedule to walk your dog or clean your house: middlemen provide no value beyond initial contact.
It's investing by fad and it's all going to come unraveled soon enough.
And some of the sitters and walkers who use these apps already had established sitting and walking businesses.
As someone who loathes the startup tendency to misclassify employees in order to shift costs onto them, I do savor the schadenfreude when it backfires like this.
To walk a dog for money in Vancouver, you are required to have a $2 million insurance policy.
https://i.imgur.com/ZEVBBuD.png
Saner cities covered this liability with the $10 dog muzzle.
If you didn't think we were in the dot com bubble 2.0 and the re-emergence of the Pets.com strategy won't show you, I don't know what will. I wonder which one will get the superbowl ad.
This is a silly, meaningless analogy. Every grown adult on earth was not walking around with a computer connected to broadband internet in their pocket in 1999. There were less than 500 million internet users total.
I also find the recent notion of "pet parents" rather offensive. My dog is my property. I have a responsibility to take good care of her, but ultimately I am her owner not her parent.
There are all kinds of reasons one may employ the services of a dog walker: reduced mobility of a previously healthy owner, impaired functioning of an elderly dog's bladder necessitating more frequent bathroom visits, travel, the arrival of a new child allowing less freedom to walk the dog, and about fifty more that spring to mind without even putting much effort into it.
All that said, there is not a chance in hell that I would ever trust a dog to a "valley" startup employing (effectively) randoms vs a local company with prior approved knowledge of who will be performing the service.
I find your second statement a little bizarre. People are going to feel varying degrees of attachment to their pets. Why would you care? You can think it's silly or weird, but who are you to take offense at something like that?
Every once in a while, the Bay Area picks a new phrase that it enters into the public lexicon. "Pet owner" was said to invoke slavery, so "pet guardian" was the new thing you had to say, otherwise face consequence.
To each their own. Of probably equal or greater offense to me is the idea that one treat living, sentient beings to be owned and treated as property.
As to your other point, I have no idea other than changing circumstances. I find that having a dog saves me from being a lazy slob and forces me to drag my arse out the door for an hour when I otherwise wouldn't.
That's exactly how the law treats animals. They are property of their owner.
Parents have children, and then send them to daycare. Is this significantly different?
Hell, I’m out of town right now and needed a sitter for my dog. Opened the wag app and within 10 min had someone scheduled (and insured) to watch my dog for 5 days.
(Kidding, and congrats on the child)
I completely agree with you that being the parent to a human child is harder, more work, more stressful, and that the stakes are way higher. I can absolutely understand feeling belittled and upset if someone tries to argue that raising a child is anything like taking care of a pet. It's not.
I don't think that this is the argument that most people who refer to themselves as "pet parents" are trying to make, but certainly some of them might be doing so. I think that that's silly and easily refutable.
However...
This whole thing seems too similar to the religious conservative argument that referring to gay unions as marriages was degrading the sanctity of their own marriages because of a word. That argument has always seemed pretty pathetic to me. The weightiness of a concept isn't diminished when people decide to recycle a word [1]. The sanctity of someone's marriage isn't defined by use of the word marriage. Similarly, the sanctity of human parenthood has nothing to do with how dog owners want to refer to themselves.
Language evolves, and it's usually pointless to fight this process. Sure, ambiguities that are introduced may be annoying, and you may get frustrated that you now have to clarify something when previously you didn't, but there's no reason for you to have the right to dictate how other people decide to see themselves. Trying to fight this with outrage and offense seems to me like shouting at a rain cloud for getting you wet.
If people want to refer to themselves as pet parents because they don't currently have or aren't planning to have children ("No, I'm not a real parent, but I am a pet parent"), leave them be. If they seriously want to make the argument that taking care of a dog is anything like raising a kid for 20 years, shake your head in smug amusement and leave them be. They're obviously wrong, and you know it. Hell, I even know actual parents to human children who also have a dog or two, and who consider themselves both parents and pet parents. They're clearly just trying to be cute rather than equating the two. Enjoy it if you think it's cute, or don't, and then leave them be, because at the end of the day, it doesn't affect you. It'll only affect you if you let yourself get upset by it, and that's just a really poor use of your time and energy.
[1] Obviously a lot more was/is at stake for the LGBTQ community, and I don't mean to belittle actual LGBTQ struggles for equality and acceptance by comparing them to the plight of people who want to be cute by referring to themselves as pet parents (there, I guess even I need to clarify).
If you want to consider yourself a "pet owner" -- that's fine with me. If you'd rather be a "pet parent" -- more power to you.
But to take offense at someone else choosing either one of those for themselves?
Fuck off! What the hell do you care? If it hurts your sensibilities then do it differently yourself, but leave other people alone!
EX: The 2017-2018 APPA National Pet Owners Survey
https://americanpetproducts.org/Uploads/MemServices/GPE2017_...
Overall dog ownership in the US at 48% +/- 4.4 based on 505 completed surveys. But, that's not nearly enough data to slice things down to 30-40 year olds and worse it's a servery which have dubious accuracy overall.
Their methodology as outlined on their web site (https://store.mintel.com/mintel-methodology) and details the quotas they utilize to get what they feel is a statistically relevant cross section of data.
Anytime sampling is used, of course it's not going to be exact. But a 2000 person survey is, given equal statistical rigor, going to be better than a 500 person online survey and might be enough of a population to justify more detail.
(Unfortunately, the Mintel survey results cost $4300, so other than their methodology page it's going to be difficult for me to infer much more. But the methodology page seems to suggest they aim for +/-2 or 3% confidence level.)
Now, if they had sampled ~20,000 people then sure you can slice and dice like that. But slicing data always increases the risk of sampling bias as would anything that targets 30-39 year olds specifically.
Just because you think walking a dog is trivial doesn't mean that there isn't a huge need for a service like this.
A marketplace that can capture a majority of the marketshare in the US in the dog walking category will be minting money. Some of the back of the envelope calculations posted here easily show this.
Analogies from 1999 are no longer useful and haven't been for some time now. Just because Pets.com didn't succeed in 1999 doesn't mean Pets.com can't succeed today. Timing matters. Some of the early dot coms were just too early. The internet as a whole didn't have enough penetration for those kinds of businesses to work out the economics so early on.
Your perspective seems outdated.
Great outcome, and great example of what I was trying to convey in my post.
People still underestimate the headroom that the internet has to transform how we live and behave in the world. The last 20 years was really only the beginning.
I can get behind gig economy companies like Uber because transport is a HUGE industry and the taxi experience was generally not very good, but dogwalking? If I wanted my dog (assuming I had a dog) walking, I'd just google "dog walker near me" and pick some local person off google's local business listings that would charge me a lot less than a startup that's going to charge me through the nose for a much less personal service.
If you really want to know the answer, you have to do the work to get to it.
I'm not going to engage with emotional arguments filled with rhetoric like "all the single yuppies who feel bad leaving their dog locked in their $1m/yr closet apartment". It's just not a good use of my time, I'm sorry.
If you want to have a reasonable argument with rough numbers, calculation and analysis of customer behavior, then I'm game. If you just want to specifically convince yourself that walking dogs isn't worth the money that was invested, then it seems you've done a good job of it already and you're not really interested in having a balanced debate.
How big of a market do you think staying in a stranger's spare room is? Your answer a few years ago likely wouldn't have been more than $1 billion globally. AirBnB is a $30B company on the verge of going public.
The internet is not yet done transforming how we live and work. The world you live in 10 years from now will look very different. Economic priorities will look different. The way people behave will be different. And it will all happen faster than at any other point in history.
There are around 80 million pet dogs in the United States. Let's say the success case for one of these companies is to capture 10% of that market -- 8 million dogs in need of walking every day or two or three. Let's say they can take in $5/month in revenue from 10-30 walks (it's probably more than this).
That's almost half a billion in revenue per year.
Although 10% may, ultimately, be a good estimate, it's a bit misleading to equate all owned dogs to the whole "market".
At the very least, you'd want to exclude rural dogs, who, presumably, have plenty of outdoor access. Probably pro-rating this for some definitions of "suburban" would make sense, too.
I'm not sure how multi-dog households would work in terms of pricing for a dog-walking service, if an owner wanted them all walked at once, but it seems better to count dog-owning households rather than dogs.
Most importantly (and this could obviate the need for any of the other filtering), the real market is only those owners who can afford to pay $20-$30 for a walk. Of those 80 million dogs, how many are owned by people who can afford an extra $2k-$11k/yr on top of basic pet care expenses (<$1k/yr)?
> Let's say the success case for one of these companies is to capture 10% of that market
> That's almost half a billion in revenue[1] per year.
[1] Not profit
$600M in VC money is $2/US citizen. If half of households have a dog, that's ~$8/dog-house. If 10% of them want a dog-walker (the biggest "if"), that's ~$80/customer. At $30/walk, $600M in investment doesn't seem entirely crazy.
You need to divide $600M by the 7 million households that own dogs in that area. That's $80 per potential customer. And you need to convert and not churn all 7 million.
First, it seems like another instance of very wealthy people in big tech cities living in a bubble. Sure, many people who live in these cities can afford high prices for dog walkers. But that doesn't scale to anywhere beyond these hubs of uber-rich. No-one in middle America, let alone anywhere else outside hyper-wealthy cities, is going to be spending $30/day (I'm talking this number from another comment, I don't know where they got it) to have their dog walked. Assuming that's every weekday, that's at least $600/month. That scales if you ("you" being the founders/investors, not actually you) believe solipsistically that being able to do so is somehow common or even desirable to most people. It's a very yuppie thing to get a dog just to pay someone else to walk it. Even only having a dog walker a fraction of that time would be a huge expense to most people. So it's a service for the already-pampered tech/finance class. Hence, my comparison to the dumpster fire that was Juicero.
Secondly, the investment of $600 million in companies that basically exist to leech off dogwalkers shows me how far some parts of the startup world have veered from "disruptive innovation" towards rent-seeking and middlemanning. Not that this is particularly surprising - I've not particularly enjoyed watching the industry become more cancerous over time. But I guess I still like to think of the industry as if the old idea that startups were going to make the world a better place were true.
Thirdly, even ignoring all that - there seem to be a lot of flaws with the business model. I mean, what's to stop someone just hiring the dogwalker direct after the first time? Why would I trust a complete stranger from a big-brand company to walk my dog, compared to speaking to someone independent? If there's a PR crisis (like, say someone's dog being lost or killed while being walked like in the linked article) that damaged reputation is going to affect every dogwalker under the company umbrella.
I guess overall it seems like $600 million going towards making the world a worse (or more realistically, simply not-better) place.
Now, to answer your actual comments:
> How big of a market do you think staying in a stranger's spare room is? Your answer a few years ago likely wouldn't have been more than $1 billion globally.
It isn't. AirBnB is basically just a independent-contractor villa rental chain now. What % of AirBnB places (or more importantly, AirBnB revenue) are actually people's spare rooms? It seems they've just centralised the market for renting an apartment or house for travel and provided a more visible alternative to staying in a hotel.
> The internet is not yet done transforming how we live and work. The world you live in 10 years from now will look very different. Economic priorities will look different. The way people behave will be different. And it will all happen faster than at any other point in history.
If paying other people to spend time with your dog is the internet revolution we've been working towards, count me out. I thought we were going to be making the world more efficient, scaling up towards closer integration so we could all make smarter decisions and lead better lives. There's some cool stuff going on in that space for sure, but all the money seems to be getting dumped into turning Silicon Valley into assisted living for rich young adults. And that's coming from a rich young adult (though I don't live in one of these cities).
They're only starting in NY and Cali, which I estimated to be about 7 million dogs that needed walking. Additionally, Uber and Lyft combine to do $8 billion in revenue per year, operating at much larger scale with much larger demand and averagr sale price.
So I think $500M a year is optimistic. I would expect this type of startup to do more like $50M a year in revenue with a modest loss, and the users are then sold peripheral pet services.
I would definitely expect them to be pulling in far below that for a long time.