Numbers:
- Q3 production 53,239, - Bloomberg’s estimate: 53,457
- North American deliveries of 55,840 rank the Model 3 among the 10 best-selling sedans in the region--and the only one that's electric
- pretty good news in the face of what other car companies are doing
- GM sales are expected to fall 14%, after falling 13% in August.
- Analyst estimates for Ford (-9%), Toyota (-6.5%), Honda (-4.1%)
Thankfully, the VW group will actually be okay - they've tasked Porsche's engineers with electrification of all the companies owned by the group.
The Taycan will be built on the J1 platform (Porsche controlled/built). Porsche is developing 3 different packages for other car makers: the SPE (Sport platform electric) for Lamborghini, and then they’re developing a PPE (Premium Platform Electric) for Audi and Mercedes, and finally, they’ll have the MEB (modular electrification box) which is a kit for anyone else who wants electric drivetrains (VW, others)
After the TDI emissions scandal I would never support this corrupt company. Porsche, VW, or Audi - they're all corrupt and in my opinion create engines that systematically fail to keep you coming in. Look at the reimbursement schedule on the class action lawsuit - if your car's engine fails after 100,000 miles they are not paying for anything, which has personally affected me.
Bias + old thinking dies hard, it seems.
Musk was actually one one of those asking the US government to force VW to build EVs instead of just taking a large(r) fine from them.
If VW hadn't been caught they would've likely continued to be among the very last to switch to EVs because they knew they could rely on the cheating software to pretend that their cars are super efficient and can avoid penalties against new pollution laws longer.
0: https://electrek.co/2018/08/01/tesla-claims-model-3-outsold-... 1: https://electrek.co/2018/05/02/tesla-model-3-best-selling-mi...
Their performance has nothing to do with Tesla what so ever and everything to do with the trend in the market towards SUVs and crossovers which Ford, GM etc are highly exposed to.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-05/sick-of-s...
Unless you're saying the cited sales are sedans only, in which case I get your point.
To put simply, they will eventually figure out their manufacturing and economies of scale (they are already well on their way to doing so) and when that happens it will be a dramatic rise and unseating of power. We've seen time and time again market share and dominance means very little in the long term and the ability to manufacture a car isn't an exclusive right to the current incumbents.
Just check this out: http://www.autonews.com/article/20140113/OEM/301139981/audac... (or watch any JB Straubel's keynote)
They're killing it. In fact, the naysayers just keep moving the goalpost.
"We also want to thank all of our customers who volunteered to help us with deliveries, and our new customers who are showing their faith in Tesla by purchasing our products in such large numbers."
Isn't it illegal for a for-profit company like Tesla to make use of "volunteers"/unpaid labor? There are only narrow exceptions e.g. interns for school credit.
I think you're going to have a hard time getting any of the people involved to try and fight to be classified as "employees"
http://www.thedrive.com/news/23779/tesla-accepts-volunteers-...
Sounds like a face-to-face version of the unpaid peer-to-peer "support" you get in some product support forums.
The Model 3 is still wildly expensive. The ones being shipped now aren't affordable cars. 35k really isn't affordable for a car either. It's firmly in the luxury market until 35k models ship. Even then, it doesn't make financial sense to buy a Tesla over another car without government incentives.
Charge time is a major issue and will be critical for Tesla to solve.
Durability and reliability for high miles remains to be seen. Batteries are expensive to replace.
As for manufacturing, mechanically electric vehicles are far simpler. I highly doubt there is much more to be gained from manufacturing improvements, and most of the car already benefits from the already existing economy of scale on hardware and metal forming. The issue is 1000% the battery. Everything with Tesla hinges on that battery - making it cheaper, more reliable, longer lasting. That's the hard part - because increasing range decreases efficiency because of the size and weight of the battery.
I'm excited - I think with any changes that can disrupt a business a lot of resistance will be faced. But I hope Tesla succeeds.
> Durability and reliability for high miles remains to be seen. Batteries are expensive to replace.
Actually, we have very good data for longevity of the Model S batteries, and it looks beyond great. [1] Reliability of drive train and suspension remains to be seen for the 3 since it's so new, but the expectation is that maintenance is significantly cheaper for an electric vehicle due to so much reduced complexity.
> ...I highly doubt there is much more to be gained from manufacturing improvements...
Says almost everyone ever about whatever the current state of the technology is they are currently discussing? Materials science is constantly improving, and it would be shocking to me if they are making the 3 basically the same way 20 years from now as they do today.
> Everything with Tesla hinges on that battery...
And hasn't Tesla proven that they are able to consistently drive battery costs down and density and reliability up? Tesla has hinted at $100/kWh costs by the end of 2018. They are at forefront of battery production, and have consistently pushed the envelope since the 900lb, 53kWh battery in the Roadster which cost something like $600/kWh to produce. [2]
[1] - https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-dat...
Meaning there is no technical, economic, or skills related[1] reason that can't pull this off.
[1] Skills related. There are large numbers of engineers and techs that know how to work out Tesla's production issues. Meaning it's not like Tesla can't find people to fix these issues.
Then you realize that this board has no Auto experience, upvotes/downvotes based on their cult hero.
Since HN rules say we cant hypothesize about Tesla Astroturfing these threads, I'll just say that the information on HN regarding automotive is... questionable.
Please do correct misinformation with facts, especially if you know a lot about a field where most of HN doesn't. As long as you're civil and can back up what you're saying, that adds value.
"UBS says Audi's new electric car shows industry has a long way to go to catch Tesla"
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/ubs-says-audis-disappointing...
I have a 3, it is a great car, but it is also proof of how far EVs have to go before they can be the only car for many families. I think an EV is a great second car for all families. If you don't make any long trips then an EV might suffice. I did a long trip recently but I had the luxury to stop for the thirty-fifty minutes needed to get sufficient charge for my next stop or destination travel.
It always seems like it should be easy for legacy companies to stamp out disrupters but it almost never works out like that. It is very hard to refocus giant companies.
Sure your existing car companies are better right now at physically building the conventional parts of a car, but the most expensive part of an electric car is the batteries. Tesla's partnership with Panasonic (Gigafactory) is their true advantage over all the other manufacturers, since they have a reliable source for large quantities of batteries. The rest of car companies are fighting for supply from LG Chem.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/sep/27/south-aus...
Batteries are going to be an issue
This is ignorant and downplays the companies that have existed for decades.
Tesla isnt profitable, the rest of the auto companies are profitable.
These auto companies have already developed electric vehicles(see Bolt and Leaf) but demand doesnt cause them to produce Tesla amounts of electric vehicles. If they saw an increase in demand, they will use their billion dollar infrastructure to continue to produce vehicles.
To think there is any 'struggling to keep up' with Tesla for automotive is an ignorance of the automotive industry. Tesla is trying to survive, the established players are developing their own new technology.
Countering your nitpick with another nitpick seems inadvisable, but like... you're blatantly ignoring the actual company guidance to focus on a single random remark that was still essentially right. That's just goofy.
This is a big disincentive for bmw, etc (ice makers), in kind of the way that the web was a challenge to windows dominance - if microsoft supported the web too well in a standards compliance way, it would hurt their future prospects. There wouldn't be a viable ev market with customer pressure without tesla.
And exactly what car companies will pay for engine if it fails after 100K miles? Come on, 100K miles and you want to complain about reliability?
> which has personally affected me.
And here you've clearly announced that your condemnation of VW has nothing to do with morals or ethics and everything to do with your personal inconvenience. Your indignation about the diesel scandal is a front to mask your self-serving agenda.
Chrysler (incl. Jeep and Dodge) has a standard lifetime powertrain warranty.
Hyundai/Kia will, at least up to 100k. I think Suzuki tried to promise a 10/120 warranty for a little while before they went out of the US.
Life sucks, WWII sucked, all of my family, women and men served, but I love Porsches and I will continue to own them.
You're right to point out that Tesla has years of pent up sales, but it is still true that, whatever their sales are, they are more impressive in a market where other automakers are declining than they would be in a market of overall double-digit auto sales growth.
Based on? There's been no official release. If they stood at 400k, Musk would be shouting it from the rooftops.
Many reservations were expecting a $35k car (with a substantial rebate). Even Musk himself said the demand for $50k+ sedans is ~100k annually.
That's like saying Amazon won't continue because I can walk to Walmart. If the numbers won't continue give specific facts relating to the market of teslas vehicles. Unless the vehicles become failures themselves, a better alternative is made, or tesla suddenly bottoms up, 400,000 new vehicles isn't too bad.
> Customer deposits decreased slightly compared to Q1 to $942 million. This does not reflect the incremental deposits we received once we opened the Model 3 configurator for orders in early Q3 2018. Deposits impact the P&L only once the vehicle gets delivered to a customer.[1]
$.94 billion in deposits, where deposits are $1000 for a model 3, $20,000 for a Semi, and $250,000 for a roadster. It's also up by $90 million from two quarters before. No matter how you slice it they have a crazy number of deposits. Musk also does bring it up fairly often, certainly every earnings call that I remember.
[1]: http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/7235e525-db16-470c-8dce-9ec...
The bottom line though is that any reasonable observer will expect the Model 3 to keep a sustained demand at its price point. People really do like them despite what critics say.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/ubs-says-audis-disappointing...
Its not as easy as they thought.
They used to have Best In Class interiors which gave them a boost in the luxury markets, but they are average in 2018.
If tomorrow Ford/Chevy/Toyota announces a model 3 like car for 2020 release with something close to the 3's specs, Tesla is dead unless they can pull a rabbit out of their hat. Tesla can do what- 350k to 400k cars a year based on current numbers? The big players can do that in weeks.
I think there is some merit to the point about batteries- Tesla has a supply chain in place for that while everyone else is going to be fighting on the open market (as far as I know).
Tesla, even with Elon's ability to raise money, does not have that sort of back up.
https://www.automobilemag.com/news/porsche-and-volkswagen-wh...
Just a year later, after the global recession and the resulting decrease in Porsches sold, they were facing problems repaying debt and ended up being purchased by VW.
(1) https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/business/worldbusiness/30...
Also, define Porsche:
"Porsche AG is headquartered in Stuttgart, and is owned by Volkswagen AG, which is itself majority-owned by Porsche Automobil Holding SE." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche
I'm a bit skeptical whether Tesla will survive a behemoth like Volkswagen shifting gear towards main focus on electric vehicles.
Its more like the other way. Imagine a behemoth having to toss out all that IP, know how, patents, manufacturing, factories, assets, product lines and what not all to compete with a start up.
Why do you think Microsoft can't compete with Android? Doing so requires tearing the Windows Operating system and there by the whole company.
Imagine somebody like Volkswagen being made to do that.
No matter what happens, anyone wanting to build serious EVs will at some point be licensing patents, especially the stuff they do which really is cutting edge around their battery packs.
History is full of examples of this to be the case. Has Apple ever had a head start on any industry ?
I would like to see what Tesla’s profit per car is in a few years once the Model 3 production lines have settled.
[1]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-20/the-porsc...
Meanwhile all other EVs are nothing more than commuter cars. Maybe suitable for day-trips if you're really lucky.
Tesla also acknowledges that you need these high-speed charging stations conveniently located along the highway. Not in the middle of town, and certainly not in the parking lot of a store you'd never spend more than 10 minutes at.
Part of the VW "Dieselgate" settlement requires VW to invest $2BB in charger infrastructure.
Installing chargers is not rocket science, nor a huge advantage.
I grab the appropriate card of the two (Blink and ChargePoint) in the console, tap it, sorted.
But you don't have the super charger network which might be a deal breaker.
In seven years of Nissan Leaf ownership, I’d bet i could count the number of times I’ve used a public charger on both hands. Electric’s aren’t like ICE where you’re always looking for a place to fill up. You fill up at home, like civilized people do. Super charger is nice, but I personally wouldn’t factor it in.
Until there is a widespread, standard high speed charging network available, Tesla is basically the only choice for an EV that can do road trips.
Also it is good to hear that it only takes about two cards for charging. It is something that you think about but can't really test how it would work with your driving until you do it.
The startup would install the charger and split the fee with the homeowner.
Anyone want to work on that with me? Or feel free to critique. It’s sort of like air bnb for car charging.
Who is going to spend 10k to get a charger in their driveway strangers can stop by and pay you $20 to use?
Uber works because people already own the car. Even EV people don’t already own a supercharger, they have a much simpler one.
My road trip to the beach would take 4 hours more in a Tesla than a ICE. That time would be waiting at rest stops along the way...
Do drive through Canada, or is it too much hassle?
(I live in Europe; within most of the EU a national border is irrelevant to planning a route – there is no check, just a blue sign "Welcome to XYZ". When I visited Quebec, I couldn't drive with the rental car to the USA, so I never saw the border.)
No, and that is also why the iPhone is so expensive.
Almost everything in the iPhone has Apple paying some licensing fees to Qualcomm.
Late entry is not free.
Really? Unless you do road trips every week, you'd be way better off buying the Bolt or Leaf and then renting an ICE for whenever you go on a road trip.
Maybe if I replace my minivan with an EV minivan I would care.
Then you'll understand the value of a fast charging network like Tesla has.
I understand the value just fine. And for me, it's not very high; certainly not high enough to pay more than double for the car (had Model S's even existed when the Leaf was purchased).
No wonder Tesla-related threads on HN are such high value.
Next up: guy complaining that electric cars will never succeed because he lives in an apartment and can't currently charge at home.
I can’t begin to imagine the mental confusion necessary to lead you to that conclusion. To be clear, no, that’s not what I said at all.