Ask HN: 3 Successive Census ACS Surveys - What Are the Odds?

1 points by philodough 7 years ago | 1 comment

Am I just unlucky?

The American Community Survey (ACS) is a detailed questionnaire the Census Bureau gives to less than 1% of the population. I think the odds of being selected at random three times in a row is low and consequently am now wondering about the Bureau's selection process.

Could the Census Bureau possibly not be selecting different seed values each time they run their random number generators and thereby inadvertently select the identical sample of people each time? Who checks and does QA on the Census Bureau's algorithms and selection processes?

Or once you are selected in a year, are you doomed to answer their questionnaires until you die?

AnimalMuppet 7 years ago |

Well, if it's given to 1%, at random, then one out of a million get it three times in a row. That's over 300 people. So, yes, you're unlucky, but not that unlucky (presuming it's truly random).