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31 points by joefranklinsrs 7 years ago

I wonder how many times a security of any kind has exhibited exponential growth, and then crashed exponentially to a multi-month plateau, and then dumped some more.

Bitcoin definitely did it post mtgox (1200 to 300), but the only other securities I can think of dumped linearly (sears)

dnautics 7 years ago | |

Dont know what you mean by "dumped linearly", but INX, 2008. Had a second drop a few months after the main.

anoncoward111 7 years ago | | |

Math isn't my forte :) But exponential growth is a hockey stick chart upwards, and inverse growth chart is like the opposite of that in my mind.

A true pump and dump exhibits both behaviors, but Sears and most other stocks don't dump as quickly because stocks operate on slower reporting cycles I guess

nikolay 7 years ago | |

Except that Bitcoin is more of an insecurity - pun intended!

jasonwen 7 years ago |

So many useless services and so many who believe this year will end in a bullrun. If you ask them why, they can’t give a good answer, or it’s “because last year we had a bull run in December”.

I believe in Bitcoin and blockchain, overall I think last years run was good for mainstream understanding, but adoption and technology didnt keep up the pace of all price speculation. We correct, we cry, we slowly recover. Not this year, and not next year.

eyeball 7 years ago |

I have a hard time believing bitcoin could ever replace govt issued currency as hodlers dream. The power of the printing press is too important for them to give up. Any threat to that would be dealt with.

craftyguy 7 years ago |

Why do we need a post on HN every time bitcoin passes some arbitrary value? This rarely sparks any meaningful discussion here (case in point, the other comments in this post).

o_wilson 7 years ago | |

A self fulfilling prophecy I see

aritmo 7 years ago |

People are just cashing out. They are no longer hoarding the bitcoins.

aviv 7 years ago | |

The Saudis are returning the cash back into the country.. not fearing confiscation anymore.

anothergoogler 7 years ago |

And to think, one year ago we had the fad of Bitcoin Christmas gifts. I know some intelligent people in tech who bought into BTC and ETH around then. Sub-$1k BTC by year's end is a real possibility.

nikolay 7 years ago | |

I think we again and again come to the conclusion - the world careless less about crypto.

jarfil 7 years ago | | |

The world cares about useful things, like the ability to wire money with low fees, or being able to buy a pizza. Very few care about holding onto an asset hoping that it will go up indefinitely... and it never does if it isn't needed for daily use by many others.

darawk 7 years ago | |

I think sub-1k btc is extremely unlikely. The history of BTC's growth and crashes is strikingly similar each time. It goes up 5-10x, then crashes to roughly 2x where it started, stays still for a while, and then repeats. I'd be willing to make a bet with you that it won't go under $2k by years end, if you'd like :)

CommieBobDole 7 years ago | | |

How do you support the statement "It goes up 5-10x, then crashes to roughly 2x where it started, stays still for a while, and then repeats"? It was flat for a long time, it rapidly peaked at somewhere north of 19k, and has been on a fairly steady decline for most of the past year, with occasional price spikes.

If what you say was true, the price would be rising. Which it's not.

thanatos_dem 7 years ago | | |

If you make the bet in Bitcoin, losing is less damaging to you than winning is prosperous.

sdinsn 7 years ago |

Not sure why this was flagged.

HenryBemis 7 years ago |

The below comment is more political than anything else.

Like any commodity/currency/anything of value, at this point the massess have plenty of/the majority of BTC. Once this changes and hedge funds, banks, et al, will hold the majority of any/all ctyprocurrencies, then 'suddenly' the prices will rise, cryptocurrencies will be mainstream and accepted in your local grocery store, and they will bloom. Only then and not a day before. 'We' can't have the people running their own money. Once their money becomes 'our' money, then we will allow them to play with some of it.

It is called capitalism and holding/controlling the power.

If someone is selling at $4k, it means that someone is buying at 4k. Tomorrow someone will continue buying at 3.5k. I don't think big banks are stupid. They can and will speculate, wait for it around the corner, and when you see it next time hittint $10k, remember that someone who bought it TODAY for 4k is selling it for 10k, making 60% sweat-free profit.

It is a long game.