I'm a pilot (commercial, former CFII, not ATP, no turbine), I don't really recommend watching the video. Basically it's 34 seconds of cell phone camera video, night, of a burning plane a little bigger than the size of an ant on your screen. But there is enough information to see that: it's flying (control surfaces are producing lift, the plane is intact) for most of this time and obviously the time before the video starts, there's a burst when it's maybe a couple hundred feet above the ground which could be an inflight breakup at that point and trajectory becomes more steep, and then it's hidden as it impacts the ground but there's a big explosion. Not likely survivable. I don't have the experience, and can't tell from the video, what exactly is on fire: engine, wing, fuselage. In the end it does look like the entire fuselage is on fire.

Here’s a NSFW video from twitter of the plane’s supposed last moments:

Footage of Ukrainian flight going down: https://mobile.twitter.com/mehrdadt1987/status/1214756444421...

From PPRune, these are supposedly pics of the crash site: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1085x464/p...

Debris looks scattered which would indicate an in-flight breakup and would lend credence to the rumors spreading online that the plane was shot down.

Also of note: the plane was delayed by an hour and Tehran had icy conditions this morning. I wonder if the plane was de-iced prior to takeoff, or if it was de-iced, perhaps it wore off by the time it took off?

In any case this is all wild speculation; hopefully better details emerge soon.

This really reminds me of Iran Air 655 that was accidentally shot down by the US in ‘88. I hope this doesn’t lead to any further escalation of current tensions. RIP to all of those onboard.

Side note: Whoever is flagging all the reports on this incident, quit it. This is a legitimate topic of discussion and there are a lot of people on HN with aviation insight who I would like to hear from even if it takes time for full details to emerge.