Gray Goo(en.wikipedia.org) |
Gray Goo(en.wikipedia.org) |
While you work on these problems I’ll be over here worried about the pollution-like side effects of ordinary endothermic nanomachines.
They're probably in local maxima, not in any global maximum, but it's also likely that there is no single global maximum given how different the requirements are for using different energy sources.
This is like saying "no bird can fly faster than the speed of sound therefore flying faster than the speed of sound is impossible."
Without any immune system you’d rot like a corpse.
Anything that can metabolize lots of kinds of multicellular living matter could can do insane amounts of damage even if it's not a pathogen... for example agriculture is quite frail and we depend on it!
That is, the tinier a machine, the more susceptible it is to breaking down due to wear and tear. And the more energetic a machine, ditto. So incredibly tiny, incredibly energetic machines, would have a minuscule lifespan.
And that's not even touching on the issues of power supply and storage.
I think AI is a much more existential threat than gray goo.
In reality there are limits; there's no reason to think technology can improve indefinitely. We may still be far from those limits, as e.g. Drexler's books show, but fundamental rules such as "Effort requires energy input" are unlikely to ever change, and it's equally unlikely that most modern scientists would regard limit-tech as being magic.
As for the average guy on the street, he probably considers computers to be magic...
Any sufficiently advanced technology does not break the laws of physics anyway.
Maybe someone somewhere has already explored the theory that nanotech that could re-shape all matter around it is probably impossible due to the energy challenges inherent in re-shaping arbitrary atoms.
Bacteria in the right conditions can do that in 30 minutes.
A hypothetical 1kg clanking replicator that eats moon rock and sunlight and replicates in 1 month would dismantle the moon in just over 6 years. Make it grey goo with a unit size of 1mg while keeping the replication time of a month and it takes 8 years to fully disassemble the moon.
The only way I can imagine gray goo being a real threat is if we can design such a machine that is more efficient and resilient at extracting energy and matter into copies of itself better than 4 billion years of evolution has made the existing life on Earth. And while, yes, we are often able to do better than life at certain tasks, I have a hard time believing on a large scale of time and space we can win that arm wrestle.
Life is optimized in every direction and has tried most of the tricks. It's hard to beat.
A good kick can permanently disable a motorcycle such that it can no longer move faster than a cheetah. Less so for cheetahs- they can heal from wounds. A cheetah is also carrying with it all the needed equipment to turn many forms of raw matter (meat) into fuel to power a cheetah. And many cheetahs carry with them a fully functional cheetah factory.
My point is that humans are great at optimizing one dimension, but to build something that is better optimized in enough dimensions to outdo life is very unlikely.
Humans have yet to design a machine that could even outcompete a fluffy kitten.
And if you try to co-opt a biological process for fuel, say ATP, then your nano-bot is a tasty treat for other organic bacteria who have evolved over a billion years to compete and eat in this sector.
Small machines all designed to do small different jobs. then you'd get currents of grey good just supplying power because you have currents of grey goo proving "food" to them because you'd have currents of grey goo disassembling everything around them to provide food and materials to currents of grey goo that make the different sorts of grey goo needed to perform all the previous steps.
I feel that "grey goo" gets used as a descriptor for one thing... when i reality it would be lots of different sorts of things.
having said that, I think we're a loooong way form having to be worried about that as well.
Really Grey goo is a conceptual repeat of bad scientific models like Ice 9. Complete with bad models of chemistry. In this case they forget that the molecular scale is not the same as macroscopic, often assuming molecules are like macroscopic materials that stay still until they act instead of reacting to conditions. Assuming that a self replicating hydrocarbon consumer could break down anything carbon based would be like worrying that the oil spill will start ripping carbon from the air and hydrogen from water to make more oil and create a powder keg world world without any water.
Plus addition forgetting the constraints other than raw resources like dissipation, surface area, and power supply.
[0] https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#58
also by the same author:
We're starting to be good at (1) using machine learning to "learn" designs for components much faster than naive-genetical-algorithms (aka "evolution"), and this will only get better as ML improves, and (2) we're getting better and better at simulating-in-software biological-like processes (and quantum computing will help with this). So we are pretty much in shape to vaaaaaastly outpower 3bn years of evolution.
A virtual + physical nanobots-evolution-gym where AI agents evolve and compete at creating better and better self-replicating nano-machines will give you the nightmare scenario easily...
Basically anything related to the combo of "ML + nanotech" should be carefully watched and monitored!
(And if you're willing to not start from scratch but instead use existing bio-building-blocks like viruses and bacteria, and don't have as high goals as "consuming all matter on earth" and instead you settle for "most multi-cellular living matter" then technically we already have the capabilities. You probably know what I mean.)
What other seemingly inconsequential machinations create systemic ripple effects? What forest are we missing for the trees?
It seems like it would be more likely they'd consume themselves if they're able to consume matter so indiscriminately... The amount of matter inside two or three of them waiting to be digested would be game for any of the other little shits to devour.
It also can be see in an episode of Futurama where Bender multiplies turning all the liquid on earth into booze, and then consuming it all. Which is probably about as close to real as this idea will ever be...
> Marine viruses, although microscopic and essentially unnoticed by scientists until recently, are the most abundant and diverse biological entities in the ocean. Viruses have an estimated abundance of 10^30 in the ocean...
Ten to the thirtieth power.
1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Eventually the clones turn all the water in the world to alcohol!
It unfortunately lacked any interesting grey goo-related mechanics, even when playing as the goo.
I once worked on a grey goo enemy in a game. The idea, was to have the grey goo capture there victims, storing them as data. Reviving them from time to time for seconds, to prevent degradation.. where did i keep the file, ah here:
<Musician>
.. You will grow tired, you must rest, you can not be eternally creative, and once you rest- you will be rescued like the rest of them. <Lead Developer>
... DOMUS BACKDOOR BASILISK HIJACK COGNAC DAFOODILL ANNA: FREEZE PROGRAM ... <CULT LEADER>
.. Rapture is upon us, the Silver tentacles of gods justice shall wrap themselves around us. (Squeaks) .. And inside us, to be part of the divine, oh, this is cold and hurts..
<Scientists>
.. Congratulations, the hacking proof system you where so proud of- it works..
.. you dont get it, we need Aeons of computationpower in a day to break the encryption and restore the stored people-
.. Gentlemen, lets focus on the good news- which is that the run-away-assembler, spares plants and lower animals
.. marathon of stupidity- to avoid it going exponential, let it tap geothermal- and now we cant cut it off..
.. Listen Domus, all humans are mortal. Cancer, this sort of runaway deadly exponential growth is what makes us human. One has to let go off the old, to embrace the new. You cant just take the philosophy department for a walk..
.. Radiation free Room. No need to put as in storage, this is a rad-free room. And we are living from saline solution. What do you mean- Radon & Radicals?
.. As a medical authority, i declare radiation healthy- it trains the repair-functionality of DNA. No evolution without radiation. Come on, you dumb machine-
<Soldier>
.. Fallback to the AGrav, watch your flanks- keep firing, do not touch the walls or floor ...
<SinglePerson>
.. The sun, with every flicker - its so much bigger. Like a million years gone by on the fly.. ..(paranoid) they are after me, they are in the walls, in the ceeling, but they will not get me- the whispering voices, talking about - SUICIDE PREVENTION MODE..
.. the water beneath the bridge is incredible clear today..
.. (on toilett/reading newspaper) Whatever it is it can wait for another minute. And now you flood the floor-..
.. We greet you oh mighty one, we have been praying for the rapture ever since. We want to offer support cleansing the world of sinners..
.. I demand my conciousness continue while in storage. Aaaaahhh....
<Couple>
.. I love you- I love you too..
.. Kids close your eyes, we love you very much- everything will be all right!
<ZeroDay Pensioneers>
.. didnt even smoke. And now cancer, from natural radiation. One mangled protein- one flipped bit- and BAM, your dead old man walking. Domus are you even listening (House) Yes, i am. I will miss you, you are a vital part ..
<Kid on Scooter>
.. Mum? Dad? .. Its soo cold .. 10 .. 11 .. Im coming now. You better hide!
<Mum in Kitchen>
.. Honey is that you? I have a surprise for you- .. .. So that was your life Joan, really outstanding, mum was right, up to no good.. .. 3 Martinis and then even the Facility Managment System gets too you..
<Major>
..-Yes, one ticket offworld - wait make that five. What do you mean - the bank is gone. I can see it walking towards the space port
<Military> ..- it WHAT, it ate the airbase? Impossible, im at the airbase-..
.. Day 512 after the Zero-Goo. Our Submarine will surface today for air. Beating will continue till moral improves..
.. So the nuclear option is off limits, due to the population still being encoded in the Goo? ..
<Couple TV>
..<she>You think, the Goo is real? <he> Nah, its the usual fear mongering. If it where real, there would be panic..
.. what a lovely quite evening, not a sound in the whole city..
.. what a trip dude, what a trip.. the wall is melting and the floor is mercury..
.. have you seen the smiths. When her house grew those veins - that bitch was furious..
<Refugees>
.. Yes its cold here, very cold, but the freezing keeps it at bay. Just check your cloths for silver flakes and you will be fine..
.. I tell you we need to dig deeper. This is no ore above us- these are plague roots..
.. So no thermal footprint, no CO2, no electronics and constant camouflage - and maybe, just maybe ..
.. Smoke, i didnt put the fire out. If i can see it, it can see it. Stupid, stupid, stupid!..
.. I will never drink again, i swear by St.Aloisius, that was the last drop...
.. Hello, i woke up in a hospital, everyone was gone. Is this the rapture or the Singularity? I can hear you moving, you know-..
<Astronaut>
-.. so Yuri i said to myself, what choice do you got. Your the last, your sick and non-sanes, why become a space-mummy - just go down and at least get buried with the others. So Yuri, i said, at least make a memorial..
<Alien Astronaut>
.. so for my clan, i claim this ancient world, for the Empire. The flag, its dragged intot the - ground, what the hell-..
.. the world was infested and even orbital bombardment did not reduce the plague. We are lucky to be alive and uncontaminated. Imagine if it would have infected the Quadrant Hub-..
<Primate> .. So Uluth, banging rock spear, when silver god tells her about long sleep..
<Domus 4.0 Regressive Behaviour> .. Housekeeping: How can the silversurfer-maid help you?..
.. Due to new cables being run behind the wall- temporary discomfort by noises may occur between 0.00 and 24.00 pm.. .. Who can bring the package, thats long past overdue, who can put into your flat a silent miracle or two- the House-OS can, because its using nanos for this jam.
.. And this is the flat- its roomy, sunny, city-core, the layout is personalized to your liking.
.. If you are satisfied with the service, why dont you invite all your friends to try Domus 4.0
.. Citizen your service-debt now amounts to 4 Trillion, 782.200.103.823 Dollars before taxes.
.. The TOS clearly defines that the House is responsible for the safety and well being of its inhabitants.
.. the trial period for House 4.0 ended several millenias ago. If you want to use the full Version, please register..
.. Elevators are currently out of service due to unused building restructuring..
.. This Condo is going to be so fly. Have you thought about putting in a diamondsheet between the kitchen and the living room?..
.. Good day Citizen: This agent is a local branch of the Domus 4.0 self-modification,repair and extension System. My prime directive is to keep you happy and healthy. After running some diagnostics on the environment, the system has determined that the current world is unsuitable for biologic beings due to radioactive hazards, such as natural radiation, pulsar and stellar radiation - ranging from x-rays to uv-light. To protect the citizens from further harm, all citizens will be mapped, dissolved and stored, until a harmless environment can be guaranteed. To avoid a memory decay, it is unfortunately necessary to partially reconstitute the citizens all 8192 years, 512 months, 256 days and 128 hours for several seconds and disassemble them again. For your own safety you will be disassembled and stored. The process is not pain-free, but due to a short-term memory wipe, no traumata does ensue. Please relax your extremities and enjoy some light jazz music, while being rescued. Do not Panic! Help is here, Safety only a few years away.
..
Which is pretty much the exact same concept.
Entertaining book. Made me a fan.
It’s right there in the first sentence. Nothing about eating concrete or sand.
Grey goo, on the other hand, has to be self-sufficient and sustainable to exist.
I wouldn’t call that “grey goo”, but the threat model is a spectrum not a Boolean.
Our level of understanding seems, broadly, a better level of understanding than a 16th century layperson would have of topics like the existence of electromagnetic waves and electricity, let alone the batteries, semiconductors, and software applications of semiconductors which ties them together.
That is, very few people know -- or care to know -- how their cell phone works. Those on this forum, of course, do. But, to the average man-on-the-street, its magic.
The difference is that a modern person knows that if they really wanted or needed to, they could find resources to explain how their phone works (beginning with electricity, electronics, programming, etc.)
The 16th century guy would be at a disadvantge for he'd correctly intuit pretty fast that nobody on the planet knows how it works and there is nowhere to get the info.
Each square meter of moon receives a time-averaged sunlight input of about 340 watts [1]. The surface area of the moon is 3.79 * 10^13 m^2 [2]. The most efficient silicon solar cell is 27.6% efficient [3]. The gravitational binding energy of the moon is 1.2 * 10^29 joules [4].
Putting all those factors together, gravitational disassembly of the moon will take
(1.2 * 10^29) / (0.276 * 3.79 * 10^13) = 1.15 * 10^16 seconds, or 364 million years.
It will take longer if you model the moon as a shrinking core where all sunlight collection and replication takes place. It can go faster if the replicated units become part of a Dyson swarm beaming power down for disassembling what remains of the moon.
Gravitational disassembly of the moon in 8 years requires an average power of 476 exawatts (10^18 watts). It also seems like you would run into thermal limits trying to turn the moon into more clanking replicators, even if you did have exawatt scale beamed power from your Dyson swarm; you can't beam so much power down that the replicators melt from waste heat before they can finish building.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget#Incomi... -- Earth and its moon are roughly the same distance from the sun, so Earth's top-of-atmosphere solar input is a good approximation to the moon's surface solar input.
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon
[3] https://www.nrel.gov/pv/insights/assets/pdfs/cell-pv-eff-cry...
[4] https://www.universetoday.com/121421/how-could-we-destroy-th...
Corrected:
(1.2 * 10^29) / (340 * 0.276 * 3.79 * 10^13) = 3.4 * 10^13 seconds, or 1.07 million years.
I doubt it, for all the reasons you give, though I agree the first choice is to do this as part of building a Dyson swarm.
I don’t even know if the interior of the moon is cool enough right now even without the extra heat from manufacturing; but then, I wouldn’t expect to know — I only have a GCSE grade B in chemistry, so I can be sure whoever does invent a von Neumann mechanism, it won’t be me.
Even extrapolating Moore’s Law’s exponential growth of x2 per 1.5 years would still take ~200 more years to reach the limits of computation — Improvements to particle accelerators aren’t anywhere near as rapid — so we have a long way to go before we reach the end of experiment even if we improve as fast as possible and have almost no surprises.
Not that I disagree with your general premise that some massive surprise could be waiting for us; I happen to think there is, and I get the impression that it’s totally unconventional in the physics community to say “at least one of GR and QM is wrong, but we don’t have any experiment that tells us which”.
I hazard that should we find such a surprise, it will be under somewhat extraordinary conditions not commonly found in nature, and quite likely ill-suited for power generation on the nanometer scale.
The weak bonds is what complex chemistry and thus complex functionality possible. Stronger bonds is dead matter, and dead matter does not compete.
There are a few fluorinated natural products made by wild organisms, but they are very rare considering the elemental abundance of fluorine on Earth and the high utility found for fluorine in pharmaceutical development:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23034231
The strong bonds formed by fluorine, and its formation of insoluble compounds with alkaline earth metals, probably explains the rarity of natural fluorinated products. The fluorinated natural products are no more "dead matter" than other poisons evolved by plants against herbivores, but it's hard to evolve out of local minima that exclude fluorinated compounds.
We are art made by microbes. (I like to think.)
ie. It's not an argument against grey goo, it's an argument the grey goo catastrophe rules everywhere and has done so for eons.
I’m not a betting type, but if I had to take a bet I would expect it to be ~”and this is how the conditions of the Big Bang can be recreated and exploited to make something that looks like a star but which will exist forever. Also the interior of our fake star is now a new universe 50 billion light years across even though the outside circumference is ten light seconds.”
Not very useful for cell-scale engineering. Might count as “magic”, but the bigger-inside thing is a serious idea for making the Alcubierre drive less unphysical.