The Virus(blog.samaltman.com) |
(was curious)
[0] https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state...
Even if it’s Sam Altman writing this, I wish he were more scientific instead of appealing to an anonymous authority.
The question is how will supply chains change. Will Apple really stick all their eggs on China again or will they change strategies. It probably depends on how much it costs them, ie its easier to keep everything in China and pay downtime costs when a new virus hits. Luckily Tim Cook is an expert in supply chains so he is perfectly positioned for this. Other companies probably aren’t and a few will make the wrong decision.
Why would people working from home not stick? Of all the enumerated changes, this one seems like the most likely to stick. At least for any worker that has no direct contact with clients needed, going to an office seems to be not that useful and a waste. As a remote worker myself for more than 10 years, I don't really see his point here. Anyone?
The assumption behind it sticking seems to be that WFH is so obviously better if you just try it you'll be convinced. While I think there's some truth to that (=people objecting to it without actual experience), many companies are going to jump into large-scale WFH badly prepared now, so it could pan out either way. Turning a company remote is a culture shift.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0bPSseOlMc&feature=youtu.be
- What is the chance that we develop an effective vaccine in say 6 months? In 18 months? (I'd love to see this question tackled by the Good Judgement project [1])
- Singapore appears to be doing a good job of controlling the spread of the virus. Perhaps they will soon require all travellers to provide documentation of a negative covid19 test result before entry to Singapore?
- How many fewer flu deaths will result from changes to travel and hygiene?
https://gcgh.grandchallenges.org/challenge/ending-pandemic-t...
It‘s growing exponentially, so one week we‘ll still have a working healthcare system, the next week it will be overwhelmed by the low percentage of people needing O2 or breathing support for a few weeks.
We‘ll improvise and then there will be next week with a double number of cases. And a further diminished number of healthy people working in health care.
Then our healthcare system will just collapse and those people will die that would otherwise have recovered after a few weeks. It‘s a combination of exponential growth of infections and accumulating numbers of people who need treatment for a while.
As I understand this about is the current situation in Iran, it just happened earlier there.
We‘ll try a lot, maybe find a way of better treatment to mitigate this a little. This will happen until mid april, next year we‘ll have a vaccine, maybe.
Oh, and this is what I fear for my country. We have public healthcare without copay, you can’t be layed off for being sick and if you’re sick (or quarantined) you’ll still be payed.
This is going to be a wild, depressing ride and it will come ‚suddenly‘.
>the tendency for positive impressions of a person, company, brand or product in one area to positively influence one's opinion or feelings in other areas
I find that a severe underestimate. Barring a miracle medical cure, given the death rates we've seen so far the number of deaths will be in the tens of millions.
It's not hard to estimate the number of deaths with a spreadsheet https://i.imgur.com/e86IcaK.png
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-r...
All that said, I still mostly want to see your work. This isn't my specialty, and if you have well thought out optimistic numbers they would make me and a lot of people feel better--they would relieve a lot of anxiety.
In the us, we have signs in restaurants reminding employees (and customers) to wash their hands. Now in all honesty probably only 80% do in normal times but certainly more are now, and in any case, it's part of the active day to day thinking (or even better, it's part of letting the monkey drive) in our culture.
