Ask HN: Coronavirus has a huge economic impact. What are your predictions?

5 points by evangelosdotnl 6 years ago | 1 comment

As the title suggests; Coronavirus seems to have a huge economic impact. What are your predictions?

treyfitty 6 years ago |

In 2 weeks, 3MM will file for initial unemployment claims. That’s almost 5x more than the previous weekly record of ~650k. Unemployment rate will reach 10% in a month, the fastest it got to 10% ever.

All this will propagate to a full year of negative GDP growth each quarter. Economists are predicting GDP to grow in Q3 and Q4, but that was as of last week and every data point becomes stale every day.

Trump will be re-elected- not because he did anything remarkable during all this, but because the naturally progression of the virus will make it SEEM like he did it.

By 3 years, many more jobs will be outsourced. We think all this technology will help a WFH culture, and it will... just in homes/offices in other countries.

2 US airlines will go bankrupt and/or United and American will merge.

Schools will remain virtual after summer vacation of 2020.

Olympics will be canceled.

Longer term: Amazon will reach a $2T valuation by 2023. This won’t mean necessarily that their business will double in output- asset price inflation will be a big factor.

By 2030 rural fly over cities will develop enough infrastructure to displace the largest cities today and we will see a big migration to new cities.