Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza(ijidonline.com) |
Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza(ijidonline.com) |
As bad as Italy is, India worries me the most by far.
Calculating deaths/cases is very misleading, as there are many people still in the "pipeline"
Once we run out of beds and ventilators, the picture will look very different. I don't know about you, but I'm not old but I'd much rather be in a hospital if I have a nasty case of pneumonia, but we certainly can't fit 40-80% of the population in hospitals, let alone have enough health workers to treat them.
This article would imply that Italy was coming closer to saturation on hospitals before this virus. Not claiming that this virus wasn't worse. The implication is they were closing to a topping point than elsewhere.
It does fit, in that so far Italy is the outlier, not anyone else. Japan, in particular, but also Norway, Germany, and most of the US.
I think Spain throws a but of a wrench at this, but don't have that looked at handily.
Visits to emergency for Influenza-likeIllness+Pneumonia is at ~1.5x a bad flu season's peak and ~4x a normal flu season. Admissions for the same are at ~2-3x.
I think there are lots of people that don't realize how many die of the flu every year, but that is a different claim.
Italy is counting ALL deaths as Covid deaths.
Their Covid numbers are simply incorrect.
Where are you getting these numbers?
My flu death rate of 200/day comes from the CDC's last year figure of 34000 / 6 months (a really stretched flu season).
Any chance you know where to find this for other countries?
This article implies their infection to death rate was already elevated for the flu. Most accept this is, at best, a deadly flu. That would strengthen this hypothesis.
But your hypothesis seems to be there are more infected in Italy than elsewhere. But you then have to explain why it did more there.
If we have infection to death rates in all countries, that would let us predict if the first hypothesis is true. To test yours? What can we do?
Let that sink in. Italy had 25,000 deaths attributed to flu like illness two years ago. They are at 6000. Accepting that this is a hard flu like virus, we would expect them to have bad numbers. Why? What is so bad about Italy?
Again, comparing to the flu is not minimizing. The flu is already a terrible virus.