Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf](coronavirus.ohio.gov) |
Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf](coronavirus.ohio.gov) |
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22980932
There was much speculation, but many people agreed that in 2 weeks we would have super interesting data.
It's been 17 days. We have an update from ohio.gov that tested individuals climbed to 7536, 4439 are positive (59%), total 49 deaths (.01)
Not an epidemiologist. Does this data fit the Diamond Princess model? Or more broadly, which model fits this data best?
Is there other data to show how many became symptomatic? How do we interpret this update, more than 2 weeks after initial reports?
If you're going to report other ratios as percentages, could you please be consistent? I initially erroneously read this as 0.01% deaths, which would be an absolutely enormous update, but 1% isn't surprising at all.
The problem is that prisoners routinely share common spaces. It doesn't matter how the air circulates, when they all cook, eat, work, shower, and exercise in the exact same communal rooms.
Combine that with insufficient sanitation, and it's a miracle that only half of them got sick.
I think you're counting tests, not people. Those numbers double count inmates who receive multiple tests, and it's likely that those who have tested positive will receive frequent retests.
FYI there's just under 40k total inmates.
If you just look at the stats initially you run into the problem that a lot of infected are preasymptomatic are in the early course of infection. So retrospective stats are very important.
So death rates may still be reduced by interventions. Take care, arm chair statisticians.
FWIW, during this whole process, people reasonably described as “arm chair statisticians” have been putting out higher-quality and more accurate statistical analysis than any public-facing government or media source. The only high-quality analysis I’ve seen has been from “amateurs” (I.e. not employed by institutional sources of narrative information) and expensive subscription-only financial analysis services.
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/494266-judge-sa...
EDIT: “Marion houses a high number of older individuals, many who have pre-existing health conditions. Pickaway houses our long-term-care center similar to a nursing home, and Franklin is our state prison medical center.”
Marion is 25% of the deaths. Pickaway 59%. And Franklin 10%.
The 0.47% FR would seem much more plausible given the spread of the virus and the number of asymptomatic cases that appear to exist from serological testing.
[1] https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1327 [2] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v...
The most recent information I could find says that Ohio has 48,765 inmates in total. They have quarantined 80% of prisoners and tested 15%. Their infection numbers are likely artificially low due to asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic cases.
There was an article recently on HN that talked about the possible lasting effects of the virus[0]. I am interested to know how frequently lasting effects occur
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/here-is-w...
[0] Though even with those you can isolate it to particular rooms if you have the testing capacity.
Within the data itself, it shows that quarantine and isolation are effective practices against spreading covid in a hotspot. This may be a good stop-gap measure while researchers are able to study it more, but government's responsibility at all levels of keeping people safe in returning to work has has greatly fallen short of expectations.
Then there is this - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7185012/
just the two clicked together somehow, but might not be related after all..
16% of the US population is 65+, but only 2.7% in (federal) prisons. So that must account for a decent chunk of it.
https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_age.j...
Also, there are fewer old prisoners than old people in the general population.
We typically had lower quality of the same food stuffs you'd buy at the grocers. Protein/canned vegetables/"fresh" fruit/rice.
fwiw.
edit: the previous story https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22941493
age stats: https://www.cleveland.com/news/erry-2018/08/84f4aab48f389/oh...
(the underlying source is not accessible to me either at the moment)
I'd think the statistic of "average years of life lost" based on expected average of lifetime. Otherwise not sure of a better statistical way to measure age-adjusted IFR, which would be helpful.
I’m also curious how you could account for that if you could. Besides random sampling + tracking individuals afterwards even if they left the prison.
I’ve recently started digging more into statistics and probability theory and looking forward to learning how these biases might be factored in.
You don't need a PhD to gain enough knowledge of covid from literature to speculate meaningfully on an internet forum, especially if you already have a graduate degree and practice research, as many people undoubtedly on HN do.
That said, I think statistics is like most other skills in that you get better at it the more you do it. All things being equal, I would trust the person who has spent more time thinking about a subject.
In fact that was one of the earliest common sources to mention ACE2 receptors. A month or so later there is at least one study looking at nicotine patches as prophylactic and/or treatment for covid. I'm having trouble finding the reddit thread, standby.
http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?s=covid
.
https://marginalrevolution.com/?s=covid
https://marginalrevolution.com/about
Those are two blogs that I think everyone should subscribe to.
arnoldkling.com is particularly interesting because it seems to have unusually high quality in the comments section.
>Having said all that, I am also dismayed that laymen put such pressure on epidemiologists to make forecasts. Imagine if it was your job when you see a leaf falling from a tree 40 feet overhead to place your foot on the exact spot where you “forecast” that the leaf will land.
I don't think I made any complaint, did I?
This forum is becoming more inexplicably unusual every day - provide objectively quality responses to a specific request, and get downvoted, with a side order of insult to boot.
So what if you did? What if I had made a criticism of experts, do you then downvote every other comment I make, regardless of its quality?
I would very much like to hear your justification.
EDIT: It might be a good idea for you to subscribe to the two blogs I mentioned above. It sounds like criticism of experts is something you haven't had a lot of exposure to.