Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'(daniel-suarez.com) |
Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'(daniel-suarez.com) |
Delta-v is good scifi and I love this kind of background detail.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/review/B07FLX8V84/R1CKDTZCNU5E6...
How do you feel about the non-tech parts of the novel? Does it get soapboxy or cartoony, or does it hold a sensible tone?
He was considered one of the founding fathers of cosmonautics in the USSR.
(My guesses: Циолковский, Королёв, Гагарин, ??)
If your goal is to setup manufacturing in space, then that's far more complicated. You'd be working with massive amounts of low-value metals and refining them into aluminum, or steel, or whatever it is you need the most of right now, and then turning the metal into usable parts for habitats or ships or mining equipment. (Whatever is too bulky to be cost effective to ship from Earth.) Again, I don't know enough about metal refining processes to make much of a guess what the logistics would entail, but I can predict it'll need a lot of intermediate products and chemicals which might or might not be available on-site, and it would consume an enormous amount of energy. That could be from solar (though the asteroid belt is quite a bit farther from the sun than we're at) or nuclear.
Nuclear generally doesn't work well in space because there's not usually any good way to get rid of excess heat, but conducting the heat to a large asteroid could work pretty well. So then you'd just have the usual barrier that putting a reactor is space will require a launch from Earth, and that makes everyone rightly nervous.
That's not how it works.
Simply put, most small asteroids are undifferentiated. Meaning, they all have roughly similar mix of materials that depend mostly on the distance to the sun of where they formed. Unlike on earth, since they formed they have never been molten or been subject to erosion and transport by weather and water, which concentrates like materials together. Most asteroids are basically balls of dust where any grain is pretty much in the place where it landed when it first hit the ball.
The upside of this is that gold (and similar heavy metals) is much more abundant in asteroids than it is in the earth's crust, because when the whole earth was molten, all of our native gold ended up deep in the core. The gold we do have on earth is mostly what has rained down in meteors since the earth's crust has been solid. If they were on earth, each and every asteroid would be made of an exceptionally rich gold ore. However, add the cost of moving all of it back, and even with implausibly good rockets, it's just not worth it.
The feasible options are either:
1. Refine in situ. Develop some process of separating all that gold (and other valuable materials that are much more abundant in asteroids than on earth) from the less valuable materials, and then just send the gold back. The fact that we are talking about dealing with a ball of barely-compacted dust makes this in some ways easier, in others harder.
2. Find one of the much rarer differentiated chunks of rock and metal instead. They have much higher concentrations of the stuff you want, and are in many ways much more convenient to deal with, given how they actually have a hard surface and all. The biggest problem with them is that they are generally going to be very big. As in, less rocks floating in space and more minor planets. The most promising candidate for this is 16 Psyche, which is believed to be an exposed iron core of a protoplanet that got smashed apart by a very energetic collision. It probably has more gold than all of earth's crust, and it probably exists as an uniform solid gold layer.
The problem with 16 Psyche is that you are not moving it anywhere. It's >250km across and masses more than 2 quadrillion tonnes. So you have to dig into it. And, the layers above the gold layer are made of solid nickel-iron. So you either hope that there is a crack into the deep layers formed when the protoplanet was busted apart, and use that, or you somehow tunnel through a hundred kilometers of iron.
The effort required to set such a chain up, in space, for not one, but for dozens of metals (modern manufacturing requires many of them), as well as other chemicals (many of whom are inputs into other processes) would be astronomical.
And then you would actually need to do something useful with that metal.
If you're not refining and using what you mined in orbit, and are bringing it back to Earth, it's cheaper to just mine what you're looking for on Earth. We have no shortage of mineral deposits that are considered economically non-viable today - but are still far easier and cheaper to extract than anything in space.
If there was already a town/colony on the moon, they'd attract the entire current space industry, because it's simply cheaper to launch things into earth orbit from the moon.
Specifically from the moon, you can probably upgrade your launch options and get launch costs low enough to compete with earth-surface to earth-surface shipping, in some cases.
People somehow mis-estimate delta-v costs. Take a look at the Saturn-V for an intuition. Pretty much the majority of that towering machine was needed to get people to LEO + first leg to the moon (and most of it was fuel), but only the 2 tiny space-ships at the top were needed to get people back.
https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2019/08/27/there-are-no-k...
In the short orbital communication is a >$100 billion a year industry and people are already looking at ways to manufacture larger antennas than can fit in rocket fairings in space for better signals. Even modest amounts of metal from an asteroid would be very valuable in orbit there since your competing with material that has to be brought up from Earth. Even bags of loose regolith could be very useful as radiation and meteorite protection.
If we had a good reason to mine an asteroid, knew we could get to said asteroid, and the asteroid has a composition we predicted. It’s probably possible to mine it to some extent.
However, in terms of economics... today, we haven’t proven we can mine an asteroid in a meaningful way.
Assuming we could, why? It would be cheaper at this point to just send up stuff from earth. If we prove our the mining tech, then it becomes cheaper to replicate, then it becomes more economical. However, first we need a use case that precludes an earth resupply (to force the major investment of tech). I suspect this will happen when we mine some super rare substance that is never found on earth (and/or we are curious about what’s deep inside an asteroid)
I would suggest finding a small enough (a few dozen kilotons) space rock made of a valuable / precious metal, and brought to it a large solar array and an ion gun. Metals make good ion gun fuel. Slowing the asteroid down to fall to an elliptic orbit around Earth, and then righting the orbit to put it on GEO or drop it to.the Moon seems doable with a rather limited use of mass. Technology permitting, a large enough solar sail could help slow down / steer the rock on its way towards Earth (or Moon, or Mars).
But again, personally I think that's wishful thinking to try and get investors to push money into a space mining company. Based on nothing whatsoever, I believe most asteroids will be made out of fairly worthless materials.
I think it's technology and up front financing. Well, and there are probably space treaties that are problematic.
I'd drop an ion drive on the asteroid and nudge it towards the earth (but not AT it), and once it's in a stable near orbit, figure out what to do with a much faster communication loop with remotes/robots:
process in orbit, drop parts down to earth, or some combination.
100% chance SpaceX is considering this long-term.
First, water is pretty abundant almost everywhere on Mars.
Second, carbon is abundant and nitrogen is abundant enough to make food and plastic production viable.
Third, Mars has an atmosphere which is thick enough to provide some protection from radiation and meteorites but thin enough that conductive heat loss isn't too big of a concern. Also, aerobraking massively decreases the amount of fuel required to get to Mars.
Fourth, Mars probably has enough gravity to prevent most of the health risks associated with low gravity.
I don't think either Mars, the Moon, or asteroids are dead ends for colonization. In the long, long run I think more people will live in rotating habitats in cis lunar space than on Mars, and more people will live on Mars than the Moon, but I think there are enough resources for millions or perhaps billions of people to live on Mars.
The Moon has plenty of solar to harvest.
In the far future we might have better habitats in the asteroid belt than on Mars, but that's pretty far out. In the medium term, I expect Mars will be an important fuel stop at the least.
I guess there'd be a kind of a self-perpetuating economic force at work: mining would be most lucrative when the products can be consumed near where they're made, and if there's a heavy demand for construction in the asteroid belts then the asteroid belts are where most of the materials will come from. If it's on Mars, then the materials will be gotten on Mars. (That's assuming that material shipment is expensive. On the other hand, if you can mine iron in the belts and then just lob it at Mars with a rail gun and have the Martians drive out in rovers to collect the splatters of molten metal off the surface, then maybe the economics of non-local mining can work out.)
You might even get most of the stuff aside from metals as byproducts of the metal refining process (water, oxygen(from oxids) and carbon mostly). Nitrogen and Phosphor might need importing.
Most of the leftover asteroid serves as Protection against small collisions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Leonov
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavel_Belyayev (some interesting tidbits about the Voskhod 2 mission there)
I'm assuming that huge amounts of methane (or other suitable fuel) and oxygen will be wanted for propellant, though maybe ion propulsion makes that less essential.
The metals that are much more abundant on asteroids than on Earth will be dissolved in the Fe-Ni-Co metal in concentrations varying between 2 ppm for the most abundant (ruthenium) down to 0.05 ppm for the least abundant (rhenium).
While these very low concentrations are still thousands of times larger than the average concentrations on Earth, mining them on asteroids would still require processing thousands of tons of Fe-Ni-Co metal for a few kilograms of precious metals.
On asteroids that have never been melted, the processing could be easier, because most of the precious metals might be present in very small refractory grains dispersed between the grains of Fe-Ni-Co metal and silicate minerals and maybe a cheaper separation method could be found than for the case when they are in solution.
However, the same huge quantities of material need to be processed.
Right now, it is quite certain that this cannot be profitable.
Some time, in a more distant future, we can imagine a technology much more advanced than what we have now, which would enable sending some robots able to perform completely automatically the tasks of building from local materials some huge installations for energy collection, for mining and for extracting the desired elements, so that asteroid mining would require the transport in both directions, between Earth and the mined asteroid, of only very small quantities of materials and equipment.
Even if this is much beyond our current capabilities, it might become a necessity if we would exhaust the exploitable reserves for some of the least abundant elements, dispersing them in junk from which their extraction could become too costly.
On the other hand, there are numerous research projects now trying to replace the use of less abundant elements with the use of more abundant elements, in a lot of applications.
In most cases, it is likely that such substitution attempts are likely to succeed much earlier than the time when we would be able to mine those elements from outside the Earth.
A kilogram of nickel costs ~13$. And nickel makes up a mere 0.0009% of the earth's crust.
It's completely pointless to mine them, with the hope of returning them to Earth. It's also completely pointless to mine them, with the hope of using them in space, for many, many reasons.
1. A spacecraft factory employs thousands of people, and requires hundreds of millions of cubic feet of space.
2. The supply chains that feed a spacecraft factory employ hundreds of thousands of people, and require billions of cubic feet of space.
3. They also require a long tail end of chemical inputs that are not iron and nickel.
The difference between 'We have a space factory that is fed by an asteroid miner and builds more spacecraft/space factories' and 'We have a proof of concept where we spent a billion dollars to mine and refine 20 grams of iron, which we fed to a 3d-metal printer (Never mind all the other consumable inputs into it), to print a little figurine of a rocket' is rather large... And only the latter is achievable in my lifetime.
I'm not saying it won't still be big. You basically need community in Low earth orbit, low lunar orbit, or on the moon. But it could well be worth it; depending on the demand for hardware in earth orbit to begin with.
If you get moon launch costs low enough (and they'd be low!) you might start competing with some traditional industries on earth.
These elements are: 1. The 6 platinum-group elements 2. Rhenium and gold 3. Tellurium, selenium and germanium
Besides these elements, only indium might be profitable.
Indium is depleted only a little at the Earth surface, but its original abundance is very low, so additional extra-terrestrial sources could be useful.
From all the rare elements, indium is the one for which there are no good substitutes in its main applications.
Indium is completely irreplaceable in the best lighting sources (i.e. LEDs), in the best power semiconductor devices (with gallium nitride) and in the best transparent conductors (required e.g. for computer displays).
For transparent conductors there are great efforts to find a substitute and those might eventually be successful. Nevertheless until now all the alternatives have various disadvantages.
2016 prices: TiO2 $150/ton; metal $3750/ton — https://www.metalary.com/titanium-price/
It would be reasonable to expect some level of concern from the governments of Earth that even relatively small metallic objects could be used as effective weapons if lobbed at specific cities or military installations. Perhaps heavy manufacturing will for that and other reasons be kept away from Earth orbit and instead be done in, say, lunar orbit or in one of the Earth-sun Lagrangian points where the gravity well isn't so deep and it's easier to move the product anywhere else in the solar system.
Have you seen the reports on the new data coming out of the mission orbiting Bennu a few days ago? It's looking like small asteroids might be a bit less undifferentiated than we thought those the story isn't changing by that much.
https://www.space.com/asteroid-bennu-formation-history-osiri...
In retrospect I guess it makes sense that if 16 Psyche is a chunk of planetary core, then the sort of impact that created it would likely have turned it molten, and its internal weak gravity may then have caused all the heavy metals to sink to the middle before it cools.
At any rate, gold mining sounds like an easier problem than, say, trying to manufacture stainless steel in space in a way that makes economic sense. (We'll probably get there eventually if we're going to have any kind of real space economy, but bootstrapping is going to be hard.)
But to be absolutely sure nothing bad can ever happen(TM):
Why not have purpose built catching planes match up with them, once they are low and slow enough? I imagine something Airbus A380 sized, or large Antonovs, C5 Galaxy, releasing a clamp or hook on a cable or boom, connecting to that glider in the air. And tow it to its designated splash down area.
Like in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-air_retrieval
There! Solved that for you :)
The problem with asteroid mining is that it faces one of the most expensive chicken-egg problems it is possible to imagine. Without industry in space there is no need for the bulk gathering of raw materials, but without the bulk raw materials it is not worth developing industrial processes for space and a zero-g environment.
Doesn't that depend on how you get it down.
Metal foam dropped from orbit into an ocean would float, you could have a retrieval vessel go pick it up.
Wouldn't that be a nice goal?
The profitable stuff to ship to Earth would be platinum-group metals, which have values in the tens of thousands of dollars per kilogram. But those require much more capital investment, as you need to get to farther-off asteroids and do more intensive in-space refining.
Says who? The solar constant on Earth is about 1360 W/m².
Due to the atmosphere, only about 1025 W/m² actually get to the surface.
Mars, just from applying the inverse-square law has an average solar constant of about 589 W/m². Due to the lack of clouds and thin atmosphere, most of that reaches the surface.
So basically you get more than half the energy per unit area than on Earth. Coupled with batteries or power-to-gas and even wind power, I see no major power problem on Mars.
It's not as if there's a lack of usable land for solar arrays or big stacks of batteries on Mars...
[1] And right next to an eternally shadowed crater we know has hydrogen, probably in water.
But that's besides the physics problems. It's not in any way simple to attach an ion rocket to an asteroid and change its orbit. Today's best ion engines used on probes deliver fractions of a Newton of thrust and requires several kilowatts of power to do so. That's just to accelerate a relatively small spacecraft (Dawn is a bit under 2 tons).
Adjusting the orbit of an asteroid of a non-trivial size with an ion engine would take orders of magnitude more fuel, power, and time than the Dawn probe. Even if by some magic you managed to mine the fuel from the asteroid itself, a technological feat unto itself, you still need power and time.
Power and time are doubly impacted because most asteroids rotate. Unless that axis of rotation is perfectly aligned with the desired trajectory you can only apply thrust for at best half the asteroid's rotation. Rotating is problematic for power generation. If the asteroid miner is solar powered it's panels would be in shadow half the asteroid's rotation so it needs extra mass and complexity for power storage. If it's nuclear powered it's radiators are in continual sunlight for half the asteroid's rotation so additional mass and complexity is needed to rotate them parallel to the bearing of the sun to remain effective.
Even with all that it could take centuries to move an asteroid of any significant size with ion engines. Even if it only took decades that is still a huge initial outlay with zero payback for decades. The only way that's even remotely sane is if you spammed every asteroid with probes to assess their composition and knew you were pulling in the Comstock Lode. But then you depressed the price of all the material and the whole effort barely pays for itself.
I.e. dropping a huge chunk of rare Earths onto Earth will make them not-so-rare and prices will collapse.
It's like if Jeff Bezos dumped a big chunk of his Amazon stock on the market. The price would collapse.
(the major cost of doing anything in space is the earth surface to low earth orbit tax, which is going to be over half your cost. If you can avoid that tax, suddenly a lot of things become very interesting)
Damn, you just outlined a horror novel in space
You can certainly get the speed down enough so that the words impact crater wouldn't be in the report, also you smack them into oceans not land (though smacking them into the desert would be an option I guess if you could shed enough speed).
For a 10 meter sphere of nickel foam with a density of 2000kg/m3 (so about 60% 'air' by volume) it's ~2000 miles per hour[1].
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/airfri2.html#c5
Fast but not insurmountable.
That sphere would be ~8000 tonnes of pure nickel minus ablative losses (which would reduce the impact speed).
Of course you'd want the density to be below 1000KG/m3 or it'd sink.
So a 10m sphere at 850kg/m3 would have a terminal velocity of ~1300 miles per hour - or about mach 2 and you'd be picking up about 3500 tonnes of pure nickel bobbing about.
I'd quite like to see that actually (from a good distance away).
Not a physicist, but my thinking would lead me to say that when this ball hits the water (after having already been heated a bit by ablation on the way down) it is going to compress into a pancake. Assuming the energy released at impact does not break the ball into lots of smaller pieces, the energy of the impact is going to vaporize a lot of water and melt a lot of nickle. I think what you are going to end up with after the large impact event is a compressed blob of nickle that is now rapidly sinking to the floor of the ocean.
We already know what happens to big chunks of metal from outer space that impact the surface of the earth, it tends not to be pretty. Oh yeah, and try to convince any country on the planet to let you drop your giant ball of awe-inspiring kinetic energy on a path that happens to cross over them. Not. Going. To. Happen.
Stop thinking in terms of projectiles. Just because the Space Shuttle came down like brick in a controlled crash doesn't mean there are no other ways to do this. Without the need for ablation, btw!