The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan(responsiblestatecraft.org)

36 points by porpoise 5 years ago | 21 comments

This is the same Ambassador who noted:

Tian'anmen, 1989:

“The Politburo’s response to the mob scene at ‘Tian’anmen’ stands as a monument to overly cautious behavior on the part of the leadership, not as an example of rash action,” Freeman wrote at the time. “I do not believe it is acceptable for any country to allow the heart of its national capital to be occupied by dissidents intent on disrupting the normal functions of government, however appealing to foreigners their propaganda may be.” National Review, 2020-07-31.[0]

[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_W._Freeman_Jr.#China

soupson 5 years ago | |

Could you add your commentary to the quote? I don’t quite follow the point you are making, or how it connects to the article.

nobodyandproud 5 years ago |

The author blames the US for chipping away its treaty agreements and paints the Taiwanese as naively pinning their hopes on US intervention, but China is far from an innocent party in this.

There would be no treaty or peace if Taiwan actively tried to arm itself back in the 80s, 90s, or 2000s.

I’m not sure what koolaid the ambassador is drinking, but we’re (as in, the US and most of the world) past any pretenses.

PEJOE 5 years ago |

Not sure I agree with the ambassador that China handed Taiwan over to Japan “nonchalantly,” in 1895. He certainly is more the expert than I am, but a lot of potential “bad China takes,” in this piece.

tasogare 5 years ago |

I recently asked Chinese coworkers (young, very educated, living abroad) about what they think about this and there were both supporting forceful annexation and thought it will happen someday. Given their profile, the average Chinese staying at home is probably thinking the same too, and supporting invasion too. Pretty depressing.

lasagnaphil 5 years ago | |

I think the highly educated Chinese who ventured overseas (which you need to be affluent to do it) doesn’t really represent the majority of the Chinese population at all.

theonething 5 years ago | | |

The Chinese in China are even more nationalistic and view Taiwan as a renegade province to be reigned in, forcefully if necessary.

andromeduck 5 years ago | |

This is generally true but I'd also caution that it's a pretty big third rail topic -- for lack of better example, akin to asking your German colleagues if they think Holocaust actually happened or not -- the problem being that you're generally not likely to get a straight answer even if they were sympathetic due to fear of reprisal if a non standard answer were to be discovered out by unsympathetic peers.

Tainnor 5 years ago | | |

what the hell? apart from some lunatics, no German person denies the Holocaust and this has nothing to do with "reprisals" and everything with proper education. The memory of the Holocaust and the Nazi era is omnipresent in Germany.

bamboleo 5 years ago |

It appears to me that we’re back into imperialism before the end of the century. Who will stop China if they want to expand? Nobody stopped Russia a few years ago. Hong Kong got fucked this year and nobody did anything.

China could expand into Kashmir and definitively “own” the South China Sea, including Taiwan.

Who will go to war with China? No one.

andromeduck 5 years ago | |

If the US doesn't defend Taiwan then its defense treaties with Japan and Korea become all but worthless and we'd likely see a major build up if nothing else.

The real danger is if the east and South and South East Asian countries can't put their historical differences behind them and China is allowed to divide and conquer or blitz their way through South East Asia such as via naval blockades of the SCS/Malaca or environmental terrorism via Mekong dam.

sudosysgen 5 years ago | | |

I'm not sure. There is no treaty that binds the US to defend Taiwan.

esarbe 5 years ago | |

It has always been that way. Just have a look at the U.S. imperialism in the 20th century.

The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must. Thus it has always been.

jerzyt 5 years ago |

I have been in Taiwan multiple times on business, but all trips came in two distinct time periods: about 1998 and then 2008. Each time I have spent several weeks there - not a two day trip like airport-hotel-client-hotel-airport. I had a chance to spend weekends with colleagues, and observe how locals spend time.

During the first stint (1998) I was impressed how proudly anti-communist the Taiwanese were. Proud of their independence and held Chiang Kai-Shek in high regard. The Chiang Kai-Shek mausoleum was bustling with crowds - I enjoed strolling around there on weekends. During my second stint (2008), the Chiang Kai-Shek mausoleum was a sorry sight - almost nobody around, most of it closed off for "renovation" and it felt desolate. I also detected a significant shift towards unification with China among my colleagues. I can only hope that Taiwan paid close attention to Hong Kong. I'd hate to see such a bustling, open and full of great people country fall under Chinese control.

powerapple 5 years ago | |

The truth is, China do not want to control Taiwan, and China do not want to lose Taiwan. Sounds contradict but because it is. Let's take Hong Kong for example, Hong Kong has changed China's view on this issue completely. Hong Kong would be a much better asset for China if it is independent but stay Chinese. China does not need another city. The problem is that even though Hong Kong is Chinese, the movement of seeking independence (I am sure you can find how some parliament members' display of 'fuck China' during inauguration would upset Chinese government) has lead to a stage, where Chinese government would be very worries if they don't have the control of Hong Kong. Now they are looking at this 'one country two systems' differently, because one party will not respect 'one country' and the other party will not respect 'two systems'. The same is Taiwan. One option is to have a friendly state, it is not going to happy; the other option is to have a independent state, China will not allow it to happen. Taking Taiwan does not really benefit China, but from the government's eye, if the relationship don't change, and Taiwan declare independence in one way or the other, China will be forced to react or suffer the chain reaction of the result of it.

andromeduck 5 years ago | | |

Oh please, the independence movement wouldn't have gotten any traction had they simply continued the original strategy of imparting the changes over generations but the emperor can't appear to be weak and none of the political appointments at the leaison wanted to risk their necks to call out how stupid the strategy was.

andromeduck 5 years ago | |

I think attitudes have changed a lot since events in Hong Kong, at least amongst the younger crowd.