Why Spy Agencies Say the Future Is Bleak(nytimes.com) |
Why Spy Agencies Say the Future Is Bleak(nytimes.com) |
I guess that is bleak for the spy agencies but not for the world overall. People will be happier with a reversal of the tendency of governments to get larger and a return to more fragmented communities that humans have evolved to be happy in.
I’m surprised they have the balls to say this though
The reason these things are happening is that the world needs different institutions going forward and the failure of the old is part of that evolutionary process. And the old naturally dislikes being replaced and invents myths that claim this replacement is a negative event. It is not.
I disagree and suggest this is dependent on your political viewpoint.
Whilst some (very frequently in the USA!) recite the mantra of 'small government', most of us don't care how big or small a government is, providing it is effective. I'd argue an effective government is one that protects its subjects & citizens by providing universal healthcare, education, a justice system and defence to all.
Your opinions may differ!
I'd also suggest that as the world gets more complex, governments should be getting larger. There are more facets to society that need understanding and regulating these days. I'd be alarmed if a government was shrinking under the conditions of population growth and high levels of technological advancement as that would suggest to me a dereliction of duty
Global Trends 2040 by the National Intelligence Council
https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/GlobalT...
Why? Because PV and wind are now the cheapest forms of energy, because even when you add the cost of batteries those are still cheaper than coal and oil, and because the factories to make them are being made as quickly as possible because the eco-friendly solution is so much cheaper than fossil fuels.
The current trend line for PV is an exponential that started in 1992, going up by a factor of ~9000 in 29 years. Keep it up just until the end of this decade and all power — electric, heating, transport; domestic, industrial — is PV by around 2030, and the only reason to expect reality to fall short is that transitioning the final few bits is going to be harder than the first few bits.
I’m still worried about biodiversity losses, phosphorus, antibiotic resistance, etc., but not about CO2.
The issue is with the most difficult.
Some 10% of our emissions are from steel and cement. There are no cheap green solutions here.
C02 in the atmosphere is grim problem. Disperse source pollutants suck.
And the recent CO2 emission trend is irrelevant compared to 37%/year compound growth for PV. Second half of the chessboard and all that.
Only for a very small part of the population though.
Ag is very scary to me. another article from today on first ever drought declaration for the CO river.
How much unsustainable water use in the west is used for 'wrong' crops (or just should be none at all)? And how much from huge population growth in hot deserts just getting hotter? Meat?
And is it even possible in the near (20 years) future to for instance change air and sea transport (those giant tankers). Maybe could move to autonomous smaller ships that use sail / electric combo but batteries are heavier than oil per unit of power right? cool startup idea.
I'm so pessimistic lately feeling totally powerless and that even if we collectively get it together, we might not be able to pull it off in time.
I think it might come down to whether or not this all causes a new world wide catastrophic event to force change. Ideally realizing climate change is that event before it goes off the walls. But maybe some confrontation like wealth inequality or 'west' verse CCP (even cold to spur competition).
https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emis...
https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-west-prepares...
This is a simple economy of scale. A government can provide stable security - police and military - consistent services, retirement benefits, certification, education, etc.
How a bunch of warring feudal clans are going to be in vogue again is hard to see. I mean, all of this is in medieval history. Technology did not suddenly make people "ready". If anything, it made us worse.
I agree that security can probably best be provided at a level of states, but does a kid in the Ghetto really receive a comparative level of protection, service or education as another kid in the US, chosen at random?
And also the flip side of security is that oppression can also best be delivered at the state level. North Koreans would be strictly better of if NK was a bunch of warring states.