I wonder how much our lifespans will be reduced by these vaccines?
Andddd downvoted. Cant even point out that there are actual experts on both sides of the argument without people being upset about it.
> Andddd downvoted. Cant even point out that there are actual experts on both sides of the argument without people being upset about it
I doubt anyone who downvoted you is "upset."
Personally, I feel like there has been an escalation where some have been so adamant that it is perfectly safe, that others jump on ultra-rare side-effects as evidence that it's not.
Playing the "both sides" argument implies a coin or card, where both sides are equal. In reality this argument is played by people who know their side is dwarfed but want to project legitimacy.
I know these are cases are very rare, but I would like to do my part in minimizing any potential risks.
So this side effect may be under-reported or misdiagnosed in women, so not male-only.
Note that I'm not saying that it is more prevalent. So far as I know, there is no data to support my suspicion. And, personally, I suspect that if some of that is heart trouble, it's the minority of cases of Covid (and Covid vaccine) fatigue. But I note that the possibility exists that this could be prevalent.
The most important information, i.e. if the young men engaged in heavy sports right after getting the vaccine, is missing.
Heavy sports is obviously also dangerous while recovering from the flu.
But the disorganized chaotic government presentation doesn't give any useful information.
I can imagine the heart rate during this ordeal is way higher than normal and could trigger inflammation.
Not saying that the science here is invalid, just actually curious to know how this gets ruled out.
It is a legitimate question. People get heart inflammation from things like court visits.
If you know something then please share.
Really, if this were intended for public consumption, they would avoid abbreviations like "AEs" and instead spell out "Adverse Events" or maybe be much more specific. I doubt most people even on here know what "pyrexia" is, I had to look it up to be sure.
Anyway, more to your point, the data presented is collected from VAERS. I've spent some time reading these exact data lately to try to understand the risk/reward for vaccinating children. The system is intentionally, I think, focused on a free-text data input, along with a huge grab bag of drop-down-box symptoms. In any event, there's no obvious way to ensure people report other activities.
If you read some of the VAERS reports you might appreciate my point better. They range from professional reports clearly written by a medical professional, to personal discussions, and in this age group have a lot of reports written by parents. In none of the hundreds I read did a person describe participation in heavy sports. By that omission we can conclude nothing whatsoever regarding the relationship between heavy sports and vaccination.
The powerpoint from FDA that I read actually gave a lot of useful information. It was a much better summary of the VAERS data than I was able to glean by manually reading through the reports. Myocarditis <edit: no!> and syncope seemed to me to be the most frequent side effect of vaccination at least in this age group, and the powerpoint seems to align with my impression.
EDIT: Syncope seemed to me to be the most frequent based on eyeballing the reports. I actually didn't notice myocarditis at all when I first looked through VAERS reports, not sure why I wrote that originally.
It would be irresponsible to report that as the headline because this is still a developing topic. What's important is that the FDA was watching it closely enough to detect the effect, and are following up on it.
Good job FDA. That's the kind of thing I want my taxes spent on.
I can't help but think about how someone with that mental state would feel while in the waiting room.
Not to be pedantic about it, but science always, and in any event supports non vaccination for self and everybody else vaccinating instead.
This is true for every disease. If possible it's always smart not to inject yourself with stuff.
They just can't say it because then everybody would try and be the last person to get the shot, because the last one gets to skip the shot!
Maybe in a vacuum where everyone else around you is guaranteed to get the shot, but based on what I saw from friends and family who contracted COVID, what I've read about its long term effects, and the ongoing uptake of the vaccine I would not say the science inclines me to take my chances without immunity.
In fact, it’s likely the incidence of covid-induced myocarditis is vastly underreported given it often shows no symptoms and can only reasonably be diagnosed with a cardiac MRI which is not always widely available or advised for less-serious heart conditions.
I was diagnosed with myocarditis last year and despite a negative PCR test around the onset of symptoms (light-headedness, heart palpitations, fatigue) was strongly suspected to have contracted covid.
I was lucky enough to get my first dose of the moderna vaccine a few months back and beside a few days of increased heart palpitations I’ve had no trouble as far as I’m aware, does make me wonder about getting that second dose though.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7239191/
I wonder if you can get myocarditits both from exposure and the vaccine. Covid is in your heart tissue, triggering an immune response. When you get the vaccine, your immune system is going to ramp up even further to deal with this Covid in your heart. This would only affect people who had prior Covid exposure it would seem.
You mean the SARS-2 spike protein binds to the ACE receptors. mRNA vaccines create the spike protein so it's going to work in exactly the same way as natural infection. Recent research from Japan is showing that the spike protein from vaccination is not staying at the injection site it can get into the blood stream (and causes blood clots as are widely reported), crossing the blood brain barrier and affecting the heart. As a healthy 30 year old I would prefer to take my risk with covid than take these vaccines. I've done enough research to know what I'm talking about and the smartest people I know have reached the same conclusion.
https://www.statnews.com/2021/05/14/setting-the-record-strai...
Respectfully, you’re wrong to say “thoroughly disproven”. Even the article ends with the suggestion that it’s a side-effect of covid, albeit a rare one.
The article’s position is more that it was overblown to worry about stopping young athletes from competing for fear of myo being a common side-effect as opposed to the ~1% rate the studies have since shown.
You might say it's anecdotal, but something had to cause that.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CovidVaccinated/search?q=myocarditi... [1]
[1] /r/CovidVaccinated
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/05/04/sp...
“Consider what happens when you’re infected by the actual coronavirus. We know now that the huge majority of such infections are spread by inhalation of virus-laden droplets from other infected people, so the route of administration is via the nose and/or lungs, and the cells lining your airway are thus the first ones to get infected. The viral infection process leads at the end to lysis of the the host cell and subsequent dumping of a load of new viral particles – and these get dumped into the cellular neighborhood and into the bloodstream. They then have a clear shot at the endothelial cells lining the airway vasculature, which are the very focus of these two new papers.
Compare this, though, to what happens in vaccination. The injection is intramuscular, not into the bloodstream. That’s why a muscle like the deltoid is preferred, because it’s a good target of thicker muscle tissue without any easily hit veins or arteries at the site of injection. The big surface vein in that region is the cephalic vein, and it’s down along where the deltoid and pectoral muscles meet, not high up in the shoulder. In earlier animal model studies of mRNA vaccines, such administration was clearly preferred over a straight i.v. injection; the effects were much stronger. So the muscle cells around the injection are hit by the vaccine (whether mRNA-containing lipid nanoparticles or adenovirus vectors) while a good portion of the remaining dose is in the intercellular fluid and thus drains through the lymphatic system, not the bloodstream. That’s what you want, since the lymph nodes are a major site of immune response. The draining lymph nodes for the deltoid are going to be the deltoid/pectoral ones where those two muscles meet, and the larger axillary lymph nodes down in the armpit on that side.”
No treatment, just a follow up cardiac MRI after 3 months which showed (thankfully) a resolution of inflammation and normal heart function. Was prescribed low-dose beta blockers if the palpitations bothered me too much though didn’t end up needing them.
As I understand it the typical approach is to wait and see since the majority of cases resolve without treatment - though I’ve noticed in the US it’s more popular to prescribe a low-dose cocktail of various heart meds. Not aware of any clinical data on their effectiveness in mild cases.
Delaying a Covid vaccine’s second dose boosts immune response https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27156859
Age group Doses Crude Expected Observed
administ. rate cases cases
12–15 yrs 134,041 22.4 0–1 2
16–17 yrs 2,258,932 35.0 2–19 79
18–24 yrs 9,776,719 20.6 8–83 196
A neighbor of mine, who is 35 year old male, had an almost exactly similar event. Because he was younger, he survived. His medical team also reported to VAERS, and the Mayo clinic is researching it.
The vaccine is generally safe, and you should get it if you aren't immune to COVID. That being said, the effort to prevent vaccine hesitancy has suppressed media reporting on these events, understandably. They are likely more common than we think, but still relatively rare.
MRNA is going to be a revolutionary technology, but we should be honest about the fact that there are going to be some individuals who will experience some extremely nasty side-effects.
This works with toddlers, but not with adults. Suppressing information ultimately leads to less trust, more hesitancy and more conspiracy theories (they were hiding X, what else are they hiding?). It'd be better if they would just be be transparent and upfront from the start.
Like you, I maintain that it’s still a lesser risk than COVID... but there seems to be a lot of media/political pushback to just acknowledging the possibility of vaccine problems.
I'm still glad I got vaccinated, but given that heart disease is the #1 cause of death worldwide, I'm surprised the ramifications of heart inflammation aren't taken more seriously (if the heart was permanently damaged in a small way, I'd expect it to manifest many years later).
You're spot on. Long term risks take many years to evaluate.
"I’d just like to interject for a moment. What you’re refering to as Pfizer vaccine, is in fact, the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine, or as I’ve recently taken to calling it, BioNTech plus Pfizer vaccine. Pfizer did not develop the vaccine by itself, but rather another company called BioNTech created the original formula, which went through Pfizer's clinical trials and became the vaccine we use these days.
Many people who got the vaccine refer to it as the Pfizer vaccine, without realizing it. Through a peculiar turn of events, the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine which is widely used today is often called "Pfizer", and many of its users are not aware that it is basically the vaccine initially developed by BioNTech.
There really is a Pfizer contribute to the vaccine, and these people should partly thank that corporation, but it is just a part of what allowed them to be vaccinated. Pfizer is the distributor and responsible for clinical trials. Clinical trials are an essential part of a vaccine, but useless by itself; they can only be done once somebody developed the vaccine in the first place. So, the Pfizer vaccine can only be used because it was developed in the first place by BioNTech: the whole system is basically BioNTech with Pfizer contributions, or BioNTech/Pfizer. The so-called Pfizer vaccine should really be called BioNTech/Pfizer!"
Her PT said she's been seeing lots of these.
She never had covid. I hope she gets better, it's been really difficult.
Some of it can simply be stress/anxiety which - if not managed - accumulates as whatever condition emotionally feels like it is "not resolving" and produces similar symptoms. If everything checks out, stuff like Omega3s, VitD, Glucosamine, Chondroitin and a good 3-4 week vacation to unwind are all greatly associated with reducing chronic inflammation.
I think the challenge we're all facing is Dr's are so overwhelmed with all these "inflammatory"-type conditions where some stuff can slip under the radar but they're all inclined to blame it on anxiety/depression. COVID has been a sneaky fucker wrt asymptomatic infections.
The best thing you can do is take as many stressors off the plate and give it 6-9 months. Better 6-9 months off than a lifetime of wading thru chronic issues.
This doctor might be able to help, he’s been doing a lot of research to long covid.
I say this as somebody (if you look at some of my previous comments) who lost my Mother-in-law due to a rare side-effect that is still being researched after her second shot.
Personally, I did not know I had palpitations until I googled it later. Similarly, I suspect, that some kids/young adults may have had symptoms but don't report.
I actually ended up doing my PhD on automating the cardiac view planes using deep learning.
Never had any noticeable symptoms after, please take this with a grain of salt because I do cycle a lot (~2-400 miles a month) and I'm not representative of the general population.
I woke up kinda uncomfortable today. Like I'd already had too much coffee just getting out of bed. Within an hour I felt significanty stressed, and I had vague pressure throughout my upper chest, both sides. I was convinced it was my first ever panic attack since it didn't feel like a life ending threat.
No acute or vague pains either. My heart rate was elevated like I was currently on a pleasant walk (I was laying on the floor wondering what to do). Apple Watch didn't think anything was worth alerting about.
The peak of the "event" lasted about 20 minutes, and I went for an actual walk once I calmed down a bit. I felt comfortable enough to join my personal trainer for a pretty heavy workout a couple hours later. No issues during the workout, but a few hours post-workout now, I don't feel the usual calm/tired feeling. Still kinda feeling like I've had too much caffeine.
I'm now wondering if this is what happened to me.
Obviously I can't give you medical advice, but figure it's worth noting that it's not a guaranteed experience. ;P
A UK doctor talking about heart inflammation of young men in Israel a month ago, and an update two weeks ago: https://youtu.be/uw2xmtd8dkA
What if inflammation like this is common in many illnesses and simply goes undetected? A previously unseen symptom because no one was paying attention and small illnesses like colds don't receive the level of scrutiny that Covid-19 received.
The population for this is 130 million people who had one or both doses.
So, the chances might increase from one in a million (or possibly one in ten million) to as much as two in a million.
OK. I don't think about one in a million risks, even though they happen to about 8,000 people a day. It's not reasonable.
What can be asserted with confidence though, is that in the presence of vaccines, severe effects of a infectious disease like COVID are significantly reduced - to the great benefit of the health system and society overall - and that, due to the quite different biological responses to vaccine vs. actual infection, severe effects in general are reduced massively. See lame-robot-hoax's comments.
Nothing in life and certainly with regards to COVID is entirely risk free.
I don't think we can say anything about what the net effect will be, seeing as the mRNA vaccines are novel in significant ways.
So a lot more incidents than expected, but still extremely rare (0.002% of doses).
Edit: missed an extra "0" in that percent, thanks for the the catch everyone who did
Now prop this data of actual medical conditions created as a result of getting the covid vaccine up against the likelihood of getting covid in the first place, and the likelihood of having lifelong side effects as a result of getting covid. Risk of getting an experimental vaccine substantially outweighs the reward of the "protection" it provides.
For most people it is perfectly normal not to report anything unless it's bad enough that they have to see a doctor. Most people already expect some side effects for a few days since we've been told to expect it, for anyone following the media.
A statement about under-reporting is not automatically "anti-vax".
Is that correct, and if so, is that a big deal?
It feels like a big deal. I had never had heart issues and it felt like my whole system was unstable. Hard to describe really. I don't know how serious it is, however. The cardiologists just tested my heart, saw that there was no blockage and the blood flow was strong and told me to rest.
edit to add: On the second dose of Pfizer, I felt a minor version of this for about an hour in the middle of the night after a morning shot. No other symptoms beyond a strong immune response.
Noticeable but not significant heart pain beginning approximately 4 hours after getting the first vaccine.
Speaking with medical professionals, they said symptoms should improve with time, and they have nearly completely across the 1.5 months since.
Unsure if worth noting, but I had very strong immune responses to both the first and second doses.
It felt like the mRNA took hold in both my arm, _and_ my heart. Which given the proximity and paths between, is not entirely surprising.
It felt like the vaccine entered my bloodstream and was taken up, in part, by the heart. Which then started making spike protein and soliciting an immune response.
I'd really love to learn more about this, but haven't been able to find any good resources. If anyone can point me in the right direction, I'm all ears!
I was referred to a cardiologist, had a holter monitor, ECG, and stress test. None of those turned up any issue.
Going by what I've read about this online I suspect I may have had myocarditis from a case of COVID, but I think that would only show up on an MRI, not the tests I got. Luckily the palpitations and chest pain have mostly gone away over the past couple months.
In relation to speculation about COVID and myocarditis cases elsewhere on this page: I doubt my case will be reported because the association between COVID and heart problems didn't seem to be on the radar of any of the doctors I saw.
It's also anecdotal, but I have a existing heart condition and experienced no such side-effects post-dose (on either dose (Moderna)).
Whatever the result, I can't say I really regret taking the vaccine because it _is_ somewhat rare, and the long term side-effects of COVID are just as unknown as these vaccine side-effects. I like knowing that I'm much less likely to be a transmitter of a disease that could be fatal to others.
They aren't my friends anymore. I don't have room in my life for people who can't understand nuance or recognize their own cognitive dissonance.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/ensuringsafety/monitoring/...
> The Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) is a collaborative project between CDC’s Immunization Safety Office and nine health care organizations. The VSD started in 1990 and continues today in order to monitor safety of vaccines and conduct studies about rare and serious adverse events following immunization.
The nine HMOs are:
Kaiser Permanente Washington, Seattle, WA
Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, MA
HealthPartners Institute, Minneapolis, MN
Kaiser Permanente Northwest, Portland, OR
Kaiser Permanente Northern CA
Kaiser Permanente CO
Denver Health, CO
Marshfield Clinic Research Institute, WI
Kaiser Permanente Southern CAMild myo can go undetected quite easily. In fact, it’s known well as being a cause of death in young athletes who only learn of the condition when their heart gives out during intense physical exertion.
The most a correlation in VAERS, by itself, should ever generate is a "huh, that's interesting" reaction and possibly a controlled follow-up study. HHS has a very large disclaimer on the dataset's description (https://vaers.hhs.gov/data.html).
The data is also, at this phase of collection, unfiltered and unverified. Self-reporting biases and simple mistakes are a known concern. There's a relatively famous story of someone, as a sanity-check on the process, reporting that a flu vaccine had turned them into the Incredible Hulk. https://web.archive.org/web/20130419004549/http://neurodiver...
Put another way: Isn’t VAERS a necessary solution to ensure that the healthcare system does not misrepresent the safety of the vaccines? Transparency should be a first principle requirement for science.
Do you have a source for this? As another poster replied, I was encouraged to report symptoms and given a packet with information on what to look out for, what to report and a website to do so.
Same with my wife and two adult children.
That seems rather counter to my impression which is based on the number of adults who're hesitant and the fact that FDA halted use of Johnson and Johnson vaccines once already and Europe has had it's own fair share of hand wringing about the Astro-Zeneca vaccine.
Which vaccine did she take?
Doesn't help that yesterday I drank a bit after a very long break. Dumbest thing I did in years.
If this is really some sort of heart inflammation then no way the chance is like one in a million, it must be way more common.
I consider if maybe this is a placebo, because I was aware of heart inflammation issues, but my mind could not possibly made up chest pains on deep breaths - I had no prior knowledge of the condition.
488 total reports from Pfizer-BioNTech, 301 reports from Moderna.
Slide 18 shows proportions. 12,169,692 doses administered. Expected number (base rate) of Myocarditis/pericarditis cases in persons under 25, 10 to 103. Cases observed: 277. So it roughly quadrupled the base rate. Which brings the adverse reaction rate up to... 0.000276%
That should be second-paragraph-of-article sorts of information.
I'm curious how much we're seeing effects that are present but just haven't been measured previously, because of the size of the newly-vaccinated population.
The second dose is obviously very stressful on the body - people are often down for a couple days dealing with the reaction - so it seems unsurprising that there's /some/ kind of measurable secondary effect. Stress is known to correlate with heart attack.
> "There were 283 observed cases of heart inflammation after the second vaccine dose in those aged 16 to 24 in the VAERS data. That compares with expectations of 10-to-102 cases for that age range based on U.S. population background incidence rates, the CDC said."
They use Observed vs. Expected cases in order to calculate e.g. a reporting odds ratio [2], which can loosely guide you in finding events which occur disproportionately.
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postmarketing_surveillance
2. https://allaboutpharmacovigilance.org/43-reporting-odds-rati...
I'd hate for this to get blown out of proportion like the blood clot issue did, causing massive confidence declines in places all over, especially those struggling to roll out vaccines and keep their COVID cases under control.
Obviously, if the numbers are alarming, we must react accordingly.
Observed (O) cases in that age group: 283
Expected (E) cases in that age group: 10-102
So at least double the top of the confidence interval, for expected.
I assume they don't track healthy people in the database of adverse vaccination reactions.
This is exactly what's making me restless. Young men are the least likely group to see a doctor unless it's really bad. Thus the official statistics may be severely underreporting the real situation.
The mRNA vaccines seem to be the safest overall, although there is curiously little data coming in from inactivated virus vaccines. I'd be interested in seeing if they cause similar issues as the other two.
Every assumption goes towards their preferred conspiracy.
The coroner's report however, was quite clear that COVID did not cause her death or the myocarditis and that there has been no such reported case anywhere in the world.
If anyone has information to dispute that I would be very interested to see it. Thanks
I'm sorry for your loss.
There’s a good deal of info available in medical journals relating to covid and myo. I’m no doctor though I’ve researched it well since being diagnosed.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/9691430...
“According to Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, interim analyses after approximately 2 months of follow-up suggest their vaccines are 90% to 95% effective at preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection, although no peer review of the data has been conducted to date. Both companies now claim they have an “ethical obligation” to offer vaccine as soon as possible to all participants who received placebo, considering the strong results and participants’ contribution to the research.“
There are somewhat more exotic studies designs that can be used for post-unblinding monitoring work that meet the ethical obligations to the participants.
But it's a good question.
So I can't speak to the quality of any websites. But I do not recall anyone before the parent comment saying they were actively discouraged by health workers to not report symptoms.
Apparently this phenomenon is known for actual covid sufferers.
https://wexnermedical.osu.edu/blog/why-are-people-developing...
That being said, I don't know a single person personally (I live in Colorado, with lots of family and friends in Virginia,NC, and DC) that has died or been hospitalized for COVID, and I happen to know 2 people who suffered cardiac arrest from the Pfizer vaccine, with one (my MIL) dead. The other person is a prominent technologist and former Googler, and he suffered several heart attacks in the hospital after his cardiac arrest. Both were in the midst of a post 2nd shot fever a few hours later when the incidents happened.
It should be noted that my experience is anecdotal, and if I lived in NYC, I would certainly know several people hospitalized/dead of COVID. COVID is a very scary virus in the sense that it can cause us to let our guard down. Why? Because of viral load. If you are exposed to a single person with it, your illness will probably not be severe, but if you and dozens of others get on a subway car, sick with covid, a person getting that fat viral load is far more in danger.
My primary issue with the way my MIL and my friend were handled with their vaccine induced cardiac arrests was the way the doctors initially (for roughly a week with both, in separate hospital in separate states) gaslit the families and wouldn't even discuss the vaccine being AT ALL RELATED. It was blatantly obvious to us that they were following PR playbooks either forced on them from their employers and/or medical licensing boards. The utter and obvious lack of any form of curiosity was the biggest tell.
We can't talk about what happened on social media, at all. It gets deleted and flagged as "misinformation" and "encouraging vaccine hesitancy". The private censorship regime is clumsy, and run/moderated by people who don't seem to understand nuance or respect the intelligence of the public. The result of this?
My wife's sister and her husband, who until the incident were NPR listening liberals who were excessive in their obedience to public health authorities, are now listening to fucking Alex Jones. They weren't able to vent their anger and grief or get any information from the normal spaces, and have lost ALL trust of public health authorities. It's horrible to watch, and I"m doing my best to try to keep them grounded as they grieve. They were all in the room when the cardiac arrest happened, and it was very traumatic for them. The denials and gaslighting of the medical staff compounded the issue. (At one point, a doctor insisted my MIL had choked. When told they weren't eating, he insisted that she must have snuck off to get food and sat back down while chewing. Imagine what it was like to hear that idiocy for them)
For those of you clamoring for censhorship, ask yourself if my in-laws now becoming Alex Jones listeners was a positive effect of this regime we encouraged to form after Trump's election?
I feel for your family. That’s a difficult situation to deal with, and the marginalisation from society could only make it worse.
We need to be extremely critical and honest with our medicines, gas lighting should never happen in what is suppose to be an objective and unpolitical profession.
As far as I understand it, the vaccine doesn't work like this. It tells your immune system "hey this is what a SARS-CoV-2 spike protein looks like, attack it if you see it".
So the vaccine wouldn't cause the heart damage, the vaccine does (intentionally) ramp up your immune system to learn about this new threat, which it will then attack. It doesn't bind to ACE2, it teaches your immune system to look for bad things that can.
If there is still Covid in your heart due to prior exposure, your immune system is going to go there to assist. This would cause inflammation, but intentionally. As you noted, this immune system response is correct behavior.
So that's a long way of saying the inflammation is from the virus, not the vaccine. That's why I was thinking this may only occur in vaccinated individuals who had prior exposure to Covid.
One is mRNA (?) variant that gets into your cells and makes them produce just the spike protein. This lets your immune system find this protein out and make antibodies.
The other contains instead a partially destroyed viruses which trains the immune system directly on all their parts - the shell, the spikes, etc.
I don't remember which company makes which kind but both are in production.
Coronavirus Vaccines - An Introduction by JAMA is a good starting point. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMc3vL_MIeo
COVID-19 Vaccines goes into greater detail. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35Idb_lCU4o
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-how-do-in...
"... In an inactivated vaccine, the pathogen is killed or modified in such a way that it is unable to replicate. It cannot cause disease and is, therefore, suitable for those with a compromised immune system.
The inactivation step usually involves heat, radiation, or chemicals to destroy the pathogen’s genetic material, which stops it from replicating.
Inactivated vaccines can trigger a strong immune reaction, but it is usually not as strong as the reaction that live attenuated vaccines can produce. Due to this, a person may need booster shots to ensure ongoing protection.
The COVID-19 vaccines that Sinovac, Sinopharm, and Bharat Biotech have developed are inactivated vaccines. ..."
example the johnson&johnson vaccine [a vector vaccine] is composed of attenuated [part destroyed] human adenovirus [thus non reproductive] that has an insert of conformationaly stabilized spike sequence. this makes ease of shipping and handling, but lacks good efficacy if you are immune to the adenovirus
I lost count of how many times I was told “you’re too young to have any heart issues” before eventually being diagnosed with myo. FWIW I’m younger than you and though mild, my symptoms seem to have taken 9 months to mostly resolve.
It was a miserable period of my life, not knowing if I was going to survive to the next day. The pain is always on the left side of my chest and has fluctuated around various regions of it. Recently it became worse again after taking Adderall, which raised my heart rate, so I still suspect something is wrong with my heart, but it seems that after a year of stressful hospital visits and no definitive answers, I've exhausted everything that would have given me a diagnosis at this point.
Frustratingly, it sounds like you've done everything you can. The ECG is extremely sensitive to any change in heart function so that's positive if it's showing normal results (was the only indicator for me - other than an MRI). Obviously you're still experiencing some symptoms, but between the ultrasound and stress test, they'd have seen if there were any structural abnormalities or any issues with function, valves, blockages, etc - so perhaps that's some reassurance.
Not to belittle from your experience in the slightest, but I wonder if you've considered other causes? Easy to think the worst but a surprising number of people end up in the ER suspecting heart attacks with only bad cases of heartburn (acid-reflux). Panic attacks are another common one. I only mention these as I think the anxiety and panic I experienced due to the stress was probably worse than the actual condition.
Heart issues can go unnoticed until the day you drop dead.
https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/a...
For example: (chance of getting covid) * (chance of specific side effect) = chance of getting covid and experiencing side effect.
The difference (in "certainty", not "risk") between 90% (1-in-10) and 95% (1-in-20) is the same as the difference between 98% (1-in-50) and 99% (1-in-100).
[1]: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/...
I'm not anti-vaccines, I'm anti this experimental & rushed vaccine. Buy hey let's create vaccine passports and try to force everyone to get it because of politics.
https://www.salk.edu/news-release/the-novel-coronavirus-spik...
Derek Lowe has a post that discusses this.
In short from what I remember, the vaccine is administered in the deltoid, so most of the spike proteins should remain there. Some may travel throughout the body, but overall it is much much less than a natural infection.
That’s why I’m curious to compare myocarditis rates after vaccination to those after infection, because from what we know, natural infection should result in a higher rate of myocarditis than vaccination.
If the problem is inflammation then that seems entirely plausible... I thought that an immune response was exactly what inflammation is
I don't think we have the data either way to be sure the spike protein is completely harmless, though obviously how dangerous it is is bounded by the fact that many people experience no ill effects. (That is, it obviously can't be super-ultra-deadly, because it's not killing everyone instantly. How dangerous it could possibly be is bounded by the fact that many people have received the vaccine.)
But I persisted for a while in the face of that because I felt that my body was trying to tell me something. Pain is a mechanism we've evolved with to indicate various abnormalities. I was willing to bet there was a reason behind the pain, instead of it serving no purpose whatsoever, and especially because this concerned the region where my heart was located, I felt it was urgent, since my heart is one thing that has to function for me to stay alive.
My unresolved anxiety is that I still haven't found the reason, so there has never been any closure for me. Worse, I might not be getting the treatment I need to prolong my lifespan. It's terrifying when considering that possibility in full, so I've had no choice but to put it out of my mind.
I stopped taking a lot of things about how I'm still alive for granted, but I've actually had start taking many of them for granted again, because if I didn't I would become completely paralyzed by fear for entire days. I had to find the balance between worrying about every potential cause of death I could face within the next hour causing desperation and expending my time being unproductive.
I did at least have a few positive outcomes since then. If it weren't for the constant pain and fear I don't think I would have changed my diet and started exercising as much as I did. The exercise was reassuring in a sense because the pain wasn't correlated with how strenuous it was. But now I try to be more wary about what I put in my body. I just hope it ends up mattering in the end. I wish I didn't have to worry about dying suddenly so often.
>I'm not anti-vaccines, I'm anti this experimental & rushed vaccine. Buy hey let's create vaccine passports and try to force everyone to get it because of politics.
The vaccines were not rushed irresponsibly. The schedule was accelerated and they are under emergency use approval, because of the, you know, emergency.
Also the reason governments want you to get it is not politics but economics.
Look ay the case numbers in the nations that are vaccinating at a high rate, if you don't know how to draw appropriate conclusions from that data then obviously you are not interested in forming an honest opinion.
The evidence is just sitting out there, everywhere, you don't even need a proper study.. although there are also many of those!
[1] https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1402614193195393029/pho...
In comparison SARS survivors from 2003 still have immunity (I believe the same is with MERS).
I'm not replying directly to you, but the duration of the immunity isn't terribly important past a certain point. The vaccine is much, much safer than infection. It prevents overwhelming of medical resources, and can reduce the community transmission levels to an extent that it can end a pandemic. Those are the primary benefits, not better or worse immune memory. That would just be a fringe benefit if it were the case.
It sounded like they're making some assumptions because the mRNA vaccine causes most people to produce a higher level of antibodies for a longer period of time vs the real virus. However, antibodies are not the only part of immune system, so it's possible that other parts of the immune system may still be effective.
The real answer is we don't know that yet conclusively, but we do know the vaccine is effective, so until we have a better understanding it's a good idea to be vaccinated regardless (especially if you have any risk factors).
Around 9-12 months ago, a study came out that said antibodies from infection last 3 months. They couldn't say any longer though because that study only had 3 months of data. Unfortunately, this was largely reported on as "up to 3 months", making a lot of people think immunity only lasted a maximum of 3 months.
Since then, now that we have more data, further studies have come up that keep extending that duration. Last I recall I think there was one that got to "at least 14 months"..? But these ones don't get as much spread as the original wrong reporting, so it got kinda stuck as "don't create long-lasting immunity".
You can look at the risk of what it's preventing (covid has already killed ~1700 people per million in the US), or compare to other activities and risk levels.
Relative risk comparisons between different activities are often not useful. For example, the risk of shark-death at the beach might look alarming when compared to my risk of shark-death-at-home, but actually it's vanishingly unlikely.
But what about the risk of heart inflammation from Covid-19 in that age group, possibly with no other Covid symptoms?
This is a big assumption. It could also be that it becomes part of the virus background infections we all deal with except that it is high risk if you get it the first time.
When looking that the risk of an non vaccinated individual catching Covid today keep in mind that a lot of people have been vaccinated and the incidence numbers de-facto refer to incidences of the non vaccinated part of the population which would justify a smaller denominator than used (whole population).
Also, underreporting is a factor - not everyone knows about VAERS, not everyone goes to the Dr. for chest pain etc.
I agree it's favorable, but it's important to understand the effects of any medicine on subgroups of a treatment population.
I agree that the vaccine is probably safer. However, propaganda that covid19 infection doesn't give you as good immune memory as the vaccine is outright false and should be considered as vaccine misinformation on major platforms.
Nothing is ever that simple, but of cases with effects consistent with the protein being in the blood stream with consequences to the heart and brain, if that were a factor, it would be both testable and avoidable, and provide the explanation people would need to choose to get the shot. If the odds of accidentally hitting a vein and the bloodstream consequences as described lined up, it could move the issue forward.
I have zero expertise in this area, my interest in asking is what would make a more compelling case for getting more people immune, and having a straightforward explanation for the causes of the prior reports of harm would go a long way toward that goal.
Put another way: would injecting directly into an artery or vein have risks that the intramuscular jab would not - and do those risks resemble the anecdotal reports of myo, clots, and deaths?
https://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coronavirus/articles/24662...
https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/Coronavirus/Community_Resource...
Less that an acute infection, probably.
Less than a mild asymptomatic infection? Do we know that? My understanding was that they packed quite a lot of mRNA into the shot in order to ensure a response.
we are observing "asymptomatic" infections followed by cardiovascular problems for some. is it really asymptomatic in those cases?
Has it been tested?
Recent research (per No Agenda shownotes) showed that unlike traditional vaccines, Moderna mRNA spread through the bloodstream producing and distributing spike protein in the entire body.
Of course even in an IM injection, some will end up in the blood stream. The better question is the overall amount that stays within the deltoid vs that that travels elsewhere, and how the compares to natural infection. How does the virus deposit itself around the body vs. how does the spike protein via vaccination deposit itself around the body. As well, with the way the vaccine works, once it hits a cell, that cell will express the spike protein to the surface and that’s it, instead of contributing to further viral spread in the same region.
That said, there is no guarantee that herd immunity will ever be reached at least in the US. If herd immunity isn't reached then it's basically guaranteed you'll get it eventually as the disease becomes a "background disease".
If you think that the hospitals just magically emptied out and the virus is still circulating at the same rate as before vaccinations started in every jurisdiction that has significant vaccination rates you are hopelessly lost.
But I know you are not hopelessly lost, you are just not engaged in an honest discussion.
In case you missed it - I am not denying that the vaccines have done good - I am just very carefully sticking to what the vaccine developers themselves have said about the vaccine, which does not include anything about reducing transmission.
As an exhausted 34 year old who spent the last year field-monitoring vaccine trials, I would love to see the sources that informed your position.
As an adult that was vaccinated, thank you for doing your part to get us all here.
Firstly, I don't believe COVID related science is reliable. This isn't some conspiracy theory I picked up from YouTube. I developed this belief by actually reading a lot of scientific papers, or perhaps I should say "scientific" because it turned out that on close inspection almost all the papers I chose to study carefully were pseudo-scientific and sometimes fraudulent. I can count the ones that had no obvious errors or deceptive practices on the fingers of one hand. In no cases have there been any consequences for the perpetrators and in some cases the scientific establishment came together to cover up what happened.
At first I couldn't quite believe it and thought maybe there was some selection bias in the papers I was being exposed to, so I went back in the archives to review older papers from the world of public health (Zika, Swine Flu, AIDS). It turned out they were just as bad. I've written quite extensively about the problems in my prior comments here on HN [1], [2], [3], [4] and I also wrote a report that ended up being sent to the British Cabinet [5], so won't go into detail again, but suffice it to say I now have a large set of go-to examples for cases where scientists have been acting in ways scientists aren't meant to act.
A very small number of these problems are now coming into the public eye. For example in recent weeks a whole lot of people were surprised to see the lab leak hypothesis go straight from "debunked conspiracy theory" to Biden ordering it to be investigated, apparently without any intermediate points. Fauci has admitted on record (in the New York Times) that he lied in order to manipulate people's behaviour at least twice (masks, HITs) and thus he's very likely to have done it more often. These aren't actually my go-to examples of academic fraud because I tend to focus on the UK, where things are just as bad, but I'm sure every country has equivalents at this point because the issues aren't specific to Fauci, they appear to be cultural within public health.
A good example of this problem with vaccines specifically is the way the CDC is inflating their apparent effectiveness by changing the definition of COVID itself for vaccinated people [6]. That is, if someone took a test and presented the results twice in succession, and told one official they had been vaccinated and the other that they hadn't, the first could say they didn't have COVID and the second that they did. This sort of data manipulation is rampant, it's just one example.
So the scientific estabishment is not produced reliable knowledge. Many people still disagree with this, but they are going to eventually lose that debate because the evidence of problems is overwhelmingly strong.
Now, to vaccines. The risk of serious problems from taking these vaccines is low in absolute terms, clearly, as otherwise we'd be seeing mass die-offs by now given the very high speed and rates of vaccination. However, to make a rational decision you have to compare that to the risk of suffering serious problems from COVID. Even if the risk of both is low, if the risk of a cure is (for example) 50x higher than the risk of a disease, then the cure is worse and it's rational to take your chances with nature. For people in our age range this is especially important because the risk of suffering badly from COVID is negligible. There are far more dangerous things out there in our daily life. Average IFR estimates have converged on around 0.1% to 0.2%, which is already around the same area as seasonal flu, but those estimates must be multiplied by the chance of actually becoming infected in the first place and ideally age adjusted. I've been through multiple waves of COVID by now and not only never been infected, but nobody I know has caught it either. It seems quite plausible I will never catch it, vaccine or not. Many models were based on the assumption that nearly everyone will be infected sooner or later but those models fell apart under even the tiniest inspection, even before vaccines. And finally, it must be noted that the IFRs of 0.1-0.2% are based on a definition of death that is wrong and guaranteed to inflate the values (i.e. a virus that had been engineered to be entirely inert would still "cause" millions of deaths given how COVID deaths are defined).
All this added together means the risk of COVID to people like us is extremely low. And the risk of the vaccine?
Well, unfortunately we don't really know that. Knowing the risk relative to the risk of COVID for 30 year olds requires a level of data robustness and trustworthiness science has been unable to provide. For example VAERs is not a comprehensive database of all reactions, because reporting rates are much lower than 100% and it's unclear what the current highly politicized atmosphere is doing to reporting rates (probably suppressing them). What we do know is that there are simple and (by now) well understood mechanisms by which mRNA vaccines could create severe reactions.
The spike protein is, let's be clear about this, a toxin. If you were injected with sufficient amounts of mRNA vaccine for long enough you would die. Normally we're exposed to a dose of a virus that has spike proteins and causes production to start, but the virus gets stuck in the lungs and finds it hard to escape. Also, the dose may well be quite small. With the mRNA vaccines they're meant to stay in the shoulder muscle and eventually drain to a lymph node, but it seems that in some cases the person doing the injection may nick an artery by accident and end up injecting the vaccine straight into the bloodstream. Note that this is not meant to happen and studies into what does happen if this occurs have been occurring after the mass rollout of the vaccines. It appears the lipid nanoparticles also capable of crossing the blood brain barrier, where they may cause brain cells to start expressing spike protein and be destroyed - again, no studies of this have been done because both the mRNA adjustment technique and, more importantly, the lipid nanoparticles, are quite new. The trials were not completed, etc. The few studies that do exist are mostly in animals. At any rate, it can cause cells to be destroyed in places respiratory viruses would normally find hard to reach. [7] [8]
Is it possible vaccines are a lot more dangerous than we're being told? Yes, absolutely. No doubt at all. The standard retort to this is that it's a "conspiracy theory" but so what? Public health research is absolutely overrun with conspiracies, many of them aren't even well covered up. Certain specific subfields are nothing but conspiracies (looking at you, epidemiology). Lab leak hypothesis was described as a conspiracy theory, which thanks to China's evidence destruction it actually is by this point, but it's also almost certainly true. I hate to think about how many conspiracies there must be that don't get detected. The sort of people who try to deflect arguments by claiming they're "conspiracy theories" have come to look dumb and naive, because the things supposed "conspiracy theorists" say keep turning out to be true. Meanwhile the people who sacrificed every high minded principle to protect scientists from criticism are discovering they've been played.
Fundamentally, if someone is going to inject me with an extremely complicated substance that's specifically designed to make my body produce a toxin, after the normal safety studies have been bypassed, I want to double check what they're doing. If I can't because their work is filled with errors, it's perfectly understandable to conclude that maybe I'll put my faith in Mother Nature instead. Other people who have more trust in institutional competence can decide differently, and that's fine.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27231636
[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26769138
[3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27245283
[4] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26836661
[5] https://plan99.net/~mike/epidemiology.pdf
[6] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27366386
[7] https://trialsitenews.com/the-covid-19-spike-protein-may-be-...
[8] https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2021/06/03/covid19-the-spike-p...
This one needs to be highlighted. Public officials, at best, have collective interest in mind, not individual interest.
I've seen the phrase "the risk still outweighs the benefits" thrown around a lot lately. I refuse to believe that this is an honest assessment, because the data just isn't there. During the trials (mostly done on healthy young individuals), absolute risk reduction hovered around 1%. That number is bound to have been higher during the second/third waves, but it's probably lower today.
This isn't so much for you, but for anyone that doesn't know how to respond to this. This is how mother nature works: Human population gets genetic variability in their immune response. New virus hits the scene. Some people's immune system, with its (stability | random changes) offers them better protections. The others die. Those that die do not reproduce (dep. on age). Children of survivors have "better" immune system. Rinse and repeat. So generally speaking, going with mother nature means: People who don't have the right genes for this virus should die.
Now let's assume this has always been the case. At what point, do you ever trust a vaccine or public health policy in general? Whether it's a vaccine for polio, rubella, hepatitis, etc. at some point does the collection of bad science become voluminous enough to somehow equal good enough science?
If you believe data integrity issues are extreme, there's no way to calculate risk of vaccine vs no action. Your decision would depend on whether you trust your own research over the official policy.
But given that most of us have no formal education on the subject, no resources to conduct more accurate studies, no access to primary data sources, nor an educated peer review group to critically examine our analysis, the chances of major flaws and biases seems quite high.
>The spike protein is, let's be clear about this, a toxin. If you were injected with sufficient amounts of mRNA vaccine for long enough you would die
By that definition everything in the world is a toxin - inject enough and it'll kill you. In practice the spike protein doesn't. I mean I had the pfizer three weeks back - it makes your arm sore and stiff and probably has similar effects elsewhere in the body if it travels but it's basically gone in a week and you're back to normal.
>IFRs of 0.1-0.2%
It'd got to be higher than that. In Mexico, population 127 mil, excess deaths are about 622k which is 0.49% of the population dead. If you guess half of them caught it, it puts the IFR about 1%. Obviously mortality varies by age etc. (excess deaths http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess...)
I absolutely believe this was from a lab leak and I also closely follow the science.
The question is, why would you want a potentially man-made virus (via gain of function research) in your system at all?
With the vaccine, you teach your immune system to see Covid-19 right away and take care of it at first sight.
Without it, you have to GET Covid-19, have it embed itself inside all of your vital organs, then have your immune system hopefully slowly learn and take care of it. Meanwhile it is sitting in your heart, liver, lungs, kidneys and pancreas doing damage that is coming to light in more and more studies.
Your an adult. Your choice, but in my mind this is a poor choice.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heparin-induced_thrombocytopen...
I've read all your comments in this thread and all I can say is if this is the smartest forum on the planet and you are our prime example of critical thinking then we're in much worse shape than I thought we were. I'm not going to comment on each and every one of those but I'll leave this one general comment instead.
So you're afraid of vaccines, don't understand in basic principle even how they work, cherry pick your 'facts', get some of them hilariously wrong and manage to weave all that together to support your preferred conclusion: that you won't be vaccinated.
I'm fine with that: it makes you an anti-vaxxer, and there will always be a percentage of the people out there that make this decision based on whatever flawed reasoning they will find.
But just come out and admit it, don't bother with all the pseudo scientific justification of your position. And be grateful to all of those that will get vaccinated so that you too will indirectly be protected.
Some takeaways for you:
- you don't understand toxicity, it's definition or application to vaccination
- you don't understand the active ingredients of the various vaccine options in principle
- you don't understand the active ingredients of the particular COVID-19 vaccines
- you don't understand the definition of IFR
- you don't understand how politics work
- you don't understand how risk estimation works
- you don't understand how medical trials work, and what kind of shortcuts can be responsibly taken during an emergency
- citing a bunch of stuff that you apparently do not understand does not make your point any stronger
I could go on but I won't, suffice to say that if this were a discussion about some programming problem you'd be shut down pretty hard because that happens to be HNs core expertise. This is the kind of nonsense you get when laypeople are going to do their own research about a field in which they have zero experience trying to support some vague pre-conceived outcome.
As a layperson as well, but one who has come a little bit further than you did in their understanding of this field: you are so clueless I really don't know what I could say to support your effort while at the same time indicating that your particular brand of cluelessness is borderline dangerous: a lot of your readers will know even less than you do and will lap this up, possibly because it supports their inner discomfort, fear of needles and so on.
It highlights one thing for me with extreme clarity: it's a good thing that we managed to eradicate a bunch of very nasty diseases before social media came around because if we change a couple of words you can apply your comment to each and every vaccine that was ever released. And the world would look a lot worse than it does if that had happened.
Count your blessings: you live in an era where within 12 months of a new disease for which your immune system may not have a response ready can be created, tested and mass produced. That, and nothing else is what stands between us and a much more serious impact on our lives, the economy and ultimately our humanity.
Get vaccinated.
And stick to stuff you have actual expertise about.
> I'm going to stick my neck out and explain why I've chosen to put myself at the back of the queue for vaccines this time around.
I'm not getting vaccinated because I think I had "Early Covid", which I define as a case of SARS-CoV-2 before there was a test to diagnose it. Someone on Twitter said the timeline promoted by the media is impossible [2]; Michael Burry (MD in The Big Short [4]) pointed out that December 2019 blood samples with SARS-Cov-2 showed "#containment was never possible" [3].
> For people in our age range this is especially important because the risk of suffering badly from COVID is negligible.
Bad medicine dramatically increases the possibility of dying from a SARS-CoV-2 infection, no matter your age.
Good medicine for bad cases of SARS-CoV-2 is the anti-serotonin drug Cyproheptadine [0], which are useful for pulling people out of their death spirals.
More vulnerable people wouldn't be put into their death spirals if doctors remembered that oxygen in excess is toxic, but we have to work with the doctors we have. "is this pure (toxic) oxygen, or the oxygen with the antidote?" should be asked by all patients who are given oxygen to worsen their body's ability to use oxygen [1].
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27365696 and https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26964750
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22993262
[2] "The #Corona crisis began with a panopticon of absurd events, improbable coincidences and outright lies. Time for a review of the impossibilities." - https://twitter.com/theotherphilipp/status/13649545484277022... and a reply, "The timelines from first realization of the virus to isolation/sequencing to diagnostic test kit are impossible. The test kits were prepared for an expected event." - https://twitter.com/EndCanada/status/1364973703080083465
[3] https://twitter.com/TaxiCabJesus/status/1334382030952353792
Society is not going to solve any of its big problems if Science is viewed as just another source of political rhetoric.
Unfortunate that you're also unilaterally forcing everyone you come into contact with to take that same risk if you are infected without realizing it.
how come so if those "everyone" got vaccinated? I mean all the risk groups who has clearly higher risk from covid than vaccine should definitely go for vaccine. The rest - personal choice of risk. And as a healthy 49 years old, i'm taking my chance with covid and have no plans for vaccination (i was always laughing at anti-vaxxers, yet seeing all misinformation and propaganda (the stench of USSR strength propaganda is just overwhelming) around covid i think i'll pass this one)
The standard practice is for those making the assertion to provide their references or data. Since you've done the research, can you please link any published and peer reviewed research establishing that the health risks from the vaccine are within two orders of magnitude of the health risks from the virus? Including morbidity, mortality, etc.
> The smartest people I know have reached the same conclusion.
Can you please reference them as well so I can read their published content?
https://trialsitenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Pfizer-...
In any case, the only statement I found on health effects in the discussion/conclusion was "No toxic findings indicating liver damage were found in the rat repeated-dose toxicity test ( M2.6.6.3 )." but I don't speak Japanese and I'm sure using Google Translate is a very ineffective way of parsing research.
However, absense of evidence is not evidence of absense, either.
The simple truth is that there hasnt been enough time to really understand the long term effects of covid, or the vaccine.
Anyone claiming otherwise is simply lying.
PS: If anyone is curious about the "real thing", I'd highly recommend you look up hospital documentaries on COVID IC units. There is one - unfortunately German only - called "Charité intensiv" which quite drastically showcases the extent of what you have to deal with when contracting COVID. Let me tell you it's quite a bit more than myocarditis.
I got the 2nd shot of Pfizer recently (14 days apart) and considering the first shot did nothing, the second shot wiped me out for 24 hours. I wasn't sick just real tired and had a terrible headache. Just sat around all day and had to take it easy. I was thinking if the spike protein was enough to do this to me, I can imagine having to deal with the viral load on top of it and I'm healthy and consider myself fit. So if you catch Covid you're going to deal with both the spike protein and the virus all at once. Better deal with one at a time and get the vaccine so if you do catch the virus at least your body has fought half the battle and can deal with it instead of not knowing what to do while the Viral load goes crazy. I was one of those folks who felt like I could handle it, my wife convinced me to get the shot and I'm glad I did.
How did I manage to miss these "widely reported" clotting issues with the mRNA vaccines? Are you thinking of the extremely low-incidence clotting issues reported with the AZ and JJ vaccines, neither of which is an mRNA vaccine?
It may be worth mentioning that the CDC has specifically stated that TTS (the specific clotting disorder seen with the other vaccines) has not been seen with the mRNA vaccines: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/jj...
So where's this wide reporting of blood clots resulting from mRNA vaccines? Or, if that was not your intended meaning, could you clarify?
Please dr Cross, where's the link to these studies?
No, you weren't. A common false-flag (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_flag) attack involves presenting oneself as a member of an opposing viewpoint in order to find adherents for the desired viewpoint.
The tell is your use of the words "misinformation" and "propaganda." People who tend to levy such claims also tend to share more of it: https://www.colorado.edu/today/2020/06/17/who-shares-most-fa... - "The paper, in the journal Human Communication Research, also found that people who lack trust in conventional media, and in one another, post misinformation more often."
I was always pro-vax, and that hasn't changed with this vaccine.
so you would rather be at between a 1 in 500 and a 1 in 250 risk of dying in your age group + a much higher risk than that of some long covid symptoms that are debilitating/unknown if they will ever get better vs. a 1 in a 1,000,000 chance you get something that might be bad but is likely survivable... I don't understand the anti-vaxxer "logic"
Well, for starters, the vaccine isn't available for anyone under the age of 12.
This is a common claim by public health authorities and scientists routinely put this assumption in their models, but there's no clear backing for it. And if you look at the history of outbreaks of respiratory viruses, actually they don't infect everyone.
If you relax the assumption that the choice is (virus | vaccine) to be a more accurate (vaccine | {virus | nothing}) type condition, the vaccine looks less attractive. Phrased another way, we can:
1. Get a virus that appears to have been leaked and/or enhanced by incompetent scientists, and their incompetence was then denied and covered up.
2. Get a vaccine that may or may not have been developed by incompetent scientists, but if they are incompetent then for sure there will be/currently is another coverup.
3. Do nothing. The expected likelihood of this is unclear, partly because despite decades of research epidemiology can't predict case curves for a respiratory virus, but given my lived experience so far the chance of remaining healthy seems high.
Clearly, for our bodies the best result is to have no virus and no vaccine. mRNA vaccines were hard to develop because the body treats foreign RNA as very dangerous and has lots of mechanisms to destroy it, hence the chemical manipulations required to bypass those mechanisms.
You're saying that whilst scenario (3) is clearly attractive, the chance of it happening is so low that it's not worth considering. I'm saying that I haven't seen any evidence that this is true, and I've seen evidence that it's not true, and at any rate the cost of losing this bet is that with very high certainty I get a nasty bug and feel bad for a few days. Well, OK. I've done that before. Also feeling wiped out for a few days is, presumably not coincidentally, a very common reported side effect of the vaccine. More reasons to take a gamble and go for scenario (3).
In practice of course all this is distorted by government action. My expectation is that I will eventually take it because government scientists are determined to push collective solutions over individual solutions like Ivermectin, and they can make life arbitrarily painful in their quest to make hold-outs submit. My hope is that if that does eventually happen, there will be more data, more certainty and doctors will have more experience with side effects.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/vinay-prasad/90445
Late last week, Fauci told the New York Times that new science had changed his thinking on the herd immunity threshold -- but he also admitted that his statements were influenced in part by "his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks."
"When polls said only about half of all Americans would take a vaccine, I was saying herd immunity would take 70 to 75 percent," Fauci said. "Then, when newer surveys said 60 percent or more would take it, I thought, 'I can nudge this up a bit,' so I went to 80, 85."
This example is important because Fauci is admitting here that he lied to the public about a value that had a supposedly scientific basis, in order to encourage people to take vaccines out of a sense of collective responsibility.
Go ahead and wait for "absolute proof" or some other absurd standard to believe something about a novel virus to make up your mind, whatever. You concede in your comment "as well as some amount of reduced transmission", give it up already!
All along following the most obvious path that evidence has lead towards proven to be fruitful, here is another case.. in case you have missed it.
It would be nice if it does, and it is plausible that the vaccines do reduce transmission to some extent, but their primary route of action is to save lives by reducing symptoms.
Apparently demanding something better than the level of "evidence suggests" from your linked article (and even that is new news, which means we had no evidence at all until recently) makes me an idiot and worthy of derision. You are not helping the stereotype.
FWIW - how long do you call a coronavirs "novel", given it's fairly rapid mutation rate? At this point, Covid-19 is practically ancient.
And so far - your "obvious path", at least as it was implemented in the country I live in, is quite likely to cause economic and social ruin.
Most governments actually haven't followed the most obvious path in much of anything to do with this virus, that has been the source of most of the ruin.
Go get vaccinated.
edit: this one: https://files.catbox.moe/0vwcmj.pdf
Here's the data in a plot:
https://trialsitenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Ovaries...
They correctly plotted the total lipid concentration for a lot of things, including the ovaries (which stand out on the plot) but completely ignored the injection site (which might be reasonable, but gives a sense of scale), the adrenal glands (which have around the same content as the ovaries), liver (roughly double ), the spleen (a bit more than double).
I'm having a difficult time taking these omissions as anything other than an attempt to spread fear. As a non-expert in biology it seems reasonable that a lot of an injection into my body should ultimately end up in my liver and spleen. The attempt to obscure this probably-natural result (and instead focus on ovaries) is strange.
There is a very high chance you can get Covid-19 again, hence why the vaccines are going to require boosters.
If you want a dangerous, man-made virus hanging out repeatedly in your vital organs, that's your choice. I'd much rather prime my immune system to handle it via a vaccine so I don't have to have it in my heart, lungs, kidneys, pancreas, etc.
"If you believe data integrity issues are extreme, there's no way to calculate risk of vaccine vs no action. Your decision would depend on whether you trust your own research over the official policy."
Correct. I do actually trust my own research over official policy at this point, but, the difficulty of mounting an alternative data based argument is definitely there. That's why I didn't try but explained my policy via social explanations. However, we can make some assumptions that let us use at least a small amount of data. We can assume that whatever official statistics do exist are manipulated or exaggerated to increase the apparent attractiveness of being vaccinated. There's enormous amounts of evidence that this sort of manipulation is happening, so it means those statistics put an upper bound on things. The truth may be that they're less attractive, but it's unlikely that they're moreso. Thus if even the official statistics, when examined closely, aren't convincing, it seems reasonable to conclude the argument must be very weak indeed.
"But given that most of us have no formal education on the subject, no resources to conduct more accurate studies, no access to primary data sources, nor an educated peer review group to critically examine our analysis, the chances of major flaws and biases seems quite high."
I think this is the source of the disagreement. As far as I can tell, public health researchers and officials are characterized by:
1. No formal education in anything biological or medical. Tedros is of course a former African communist official put in his position by China but even academics can turn out to be untrained. Prof Ferguson, whose bogus predictions created lockdowns, was originally a theoretical physicist and has no qualifications in anything biological or medical. In fact nothing in his team's work has any biology in it. That's totally normal: the people who predict disease and suggest policy frequently have no training in it, they're just data analysts ("mathematicians" to the press, to most corporates they'd be junior business analysts). I touch on this in my presentations to the British government ministers: you can read all the relevant papers without once encountering any actual biology or even any theory of disease. Even when they have training it's irrelevant, because they don't use it.
2. No resources to conduct accurate studies. Most existing studies are done by academics in their living rooms at the moment, so they don't actually have more resources than I do. Again, public health is not medicine. Public health consists primarily of academics and bureaucrats, especially in the current environment, they are mostly just working-from-home Office jockeys. Plus if existing studies are mostly useless then that's still useful to know, as it informs what to do next (i.e. nothing). A basic principle is that if there isn't clear evidence that it's useful to do something, the right response is not to look desperately for something to do (that's the so-called "politician's fallacy") but rather leave things alone.
3. The same access to data sources as everyone else. The primary data is all available and when you read in the press or government announcements about COVID studies, almost always those are simply analyses of publicly available data sets.
4. Peer groups of people who are just as poorly educated as them, with the added problem of groupthink. A big part of why the research is so corrupt is the academic need to please their in-group without looking un-educated or confrontational, so the absence of such groups is an advantage rather than a disadvantage. And at any rate, there are plenty of people out there debating these things in forums that are freer and more open than the average scientific peer group.
Overall I think the chance of flaws and biases in self-done research is lower than amongst the professionals assuming you're willing to sit down and wade through a lot of data and reports, and to stick to the scientific method. The quality of the "professional" stuff is so unbelievably low that as long as you're not actively lying to yourself all the time, and as long as you know how to use Excel, you stand a good chance of doing a better job. Not because the world is filled with high quality amateur scientists but because the world is filled with low quality professionals.
Your work may be exceptional but the signal to noise ratio on public forums especially on subjects that have been politicized is just too high.
I would be curious to see what solutions exist for quality peer review that doesn't suffer from group think. Possibly providing anonymity for reviewers and cash incentives?
I think anonymity for reviewers and cash incentives are a great idea, but that already exists, it's a market. I don't think we need any clever or new solutions here. Simply stripping science of public funding would force it to convince large numbers of people (via markets) that the science is being done well and actually going somewhere.
It would also bring scientists within the purview of all the mechanisms that have evolved to handle fraud in the private sector, mechanisms like prosecutions, lawsuits, regulators, consumer reviews, trademarks and so on. Consider the huge difference between how Theranos was handled vs how the fraud coming from universities is handled.
I highly recommend watching the whole stream.
But even then, not seeing an indication of risk within two orders of magnitude of covid itself.
There's no agreement on what's really happening. For example, clotting risk from the mRNA vaccines is supposedly the same as for the AstraZeneca vaccines, but governments across Europe already suspended the AZ vaccine due to clotting risks (supposedly). Therefore by implication, they would also consider the mRNA vaccines dangerous if their standards were consistent. Either the standards aren't consistent and the AZ blocks were political, or the claims that mRNA vaccines have similar clotting risks to AZ are wrong, but given the contradictory nature of many of the claims surrounding this topic - and given that you admitted you only just discovered some of the scientific discussion of the effects of mRNA vaccines - it may be worth dialing down your confidence slightly.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/blood-clots-as-prevalent-w...
It might also move the risk/benefit of vaccinating children and people who already had COVID.
I am sure this is uncomfortable to many, but you are taking the position that many did take with tobacco, or asbestos. They were safe. Until they weren't.
Human life is limited in length. The burden of proof rests on those tampering with the natural (ie the human body) over the un-natural.
The counterfactual. Should we feed supermarket milk to babies ? At least in this case, milk is proven to be safe for humans long term. Would you give supermarket milk to babies ?
If you did, the burden of proving this is safe rests on you, not on the person stating they want to continue to provide breast milk to the baby
And the claim that there is a "natural" and "un natural" order of things is as unscientific as it gets.
I am not going to expect anyone with a half brain to verify the health effects of mixing milk powder with and without a Bible below it, even though a large magnitude of people claim it has an effect. Nor I am going to ask for a full medical study to show that there is no difference.
I genuinely dont understand youe point here. Are you saying that 7B people arent enough to test every medical claim. Are you saying that because we cant determine with precision life span that we cant precisely understand medical results ?
>>>> the claim that there is a "natural" and "un natural" order of things is as unscientific as it gets.
The fallacy of misusing the naturalistic fallacy
According to the critique made, we should not claim that natural things are better than scientific experimentation. Yet, my original claim was not to use nature to derive a notion of how things "ought" to be organized. Rather, as scientists, we respect nature for the extent of its experimentation. The high level of statistical significance given by a very large sample cannot be ignored.
Nature may not have arrived at the best solution to a problem we consider important, but there is reason to believe that it is smarter than our technology based only on statistical significance.
The question about what kinds of systems work (as demonstrated by nature) is different than the question about what working systems ought to do.
We can take a lesson from nature —and time— about what kinds of organizations (such as human vaccines, or viruses) are robust against, or even benefit from, shocks, and in that sense systems should be structured in ways that allow them to function.
Conversely, we cannot derive the structure of a functioning system from what we believe the outcomes ought to be.
>>>>> I am not going to expect anyone with a half brain to verify the health effects of mixing milk powder with and without a Bible below it,
See above. It is not the same claim. Being cautious about taking actions you dont fully understand; is not the same as believing you understand certain actions
By the way, the fact that the body can flush it out doesn't mean it's not a toxin. Alcohol is gone from the body within hours of getting drunk but it's still a toxin, technically speaking.
In contrast, the mRNA vaccine works by getting cells to do things that cause them to be destroyed by the immune system ASAP. Even small amounts are thus (cyto)toxic and the question is how much can the body tolerate.
One of the things that makes me uneasy about the mRNA tech is there seems to be very little discussion or research about dosages, and in particular how cell death levels compare between getting vaccinated and actually being infected with the real thing. This would seem to be fundamental because at some level, the vaccine is actually creating the same problem inside the body that the virus is, the only difference is that the virus can self replicate whereas the mRNA does not (except apparently in the case of so-called "self-amplifying mRNA" vaccines, see below). Thus the question of dosage is critical. If being infected with the virus causes 10x less cell death than the vaccine then I want to take my chances with the virus. If the vaccine causes 10x less cell death than a real viral infection, then it looks better. As ultimately, it's cell death and the fight to destroy those cells that makes people sick.
Such numbers are (nearly?) impossible to find. Vaccine dosages are very different between the different manufacturers. The Moderna vaccine has a dose more than 3x higher than the Pfizer vaccine, for example (100 µg vs 30 µg), which is itself 3x higher than the dose for the Curevac vaccine (12µg).[1] It's a bit unclear how these very different numbers were arrived at or what they're being calibrated against.
W.R.T. the SAM vaccines, also in [1] we find the following text:
"The other type of mRNA vaccines, SAMs, do not only encode the target antigen but also RNA polymerase encoding ‘self-amplifying’ factors derived from Alphavirus ... These are in turn transcribed to many coding mRNA molecules, leading to prolonged and enhanced antigen expression ... The two SAM vaccines in clinical development are nCoVsaRNA by the Imperial College London and ARCT-021 by Arcturus/Duke-NUS (both as mRNA-LNP)."
It's very unclear to me, as a layman, how this artificial "self amplifying RNA" that incorporates elements from a virus is so very different from an actual virus, given that the SARS-CoV-2 is itself basically RNA surrounded by a coating in a form that can self-replicate. Traditional vaccines are virus based but the virus is inert. The new vaccines appear to be ending up at the same end-point but without the whole making it inert part.
It'd got to be higher than that. In Mexico, population 127 mil, excess deaths are about 622k which is 0.49% of the population dead.
The number comes from meta-studies that examine a large range of IFR studies. There is a lot of variance between them - they don't all arrive at the same value, presumably because IFR is inherently difficult to measure. Infected people who don't feel sick enough to report are the dark matter of epidemiology.
However, excess death values are quite tricky to evaluate because they're excess relative to some model of what should have happened in an alternate timeline where the event in question never occurred. For example you can calculate an excess death value for Sweden of zero by making one or two plausible assumptions, or you can calculate a higher value using equally plausible assumptions, and who is to say which is correct? Ultimately you can't know what would have happened otherwise, only extrapolate from the past and try to guess. Some of those extrapolations look suspect on examination (e.g. using fixed averages, or very short timespans), just like everything else around this topic.
> It's very unclear to me, as a layman, how this artificial "self amplifying RNA" that incorporates elements from a virus is so very different from an actual virus, given that the SARS-CoV-2 is itself basically RNA surrounded by a coating in a form that can self-replicate.
For one, we can implement protocols to ensure the mrna we are generating contains the instructions we want, at the effect size we want. We could go the non mrna route and grow it as a virus, but that is going to be less accurate, more costly, and take longer. We could also just let people develop natural immunity, which will also work. People will get varying effect sizes, and vary from barely immune to dead. Obviously no vaccine and no virus would be the best outcome. But we don't get that choice.
We could go the non mrna route and grow it as a virus, but that is going to be less accurate, more costly, and take longer.
These are things that concern vaccine makers for understandable commercial reasons, but what you're saying is that there's effectively no difference to the recipient beyond the fact that the artificial self-replicating mRNA might be higher "quality" in some way.
Let's put it like this: given the apparently low probability of being infected (for people my age, in a way that we actually notice, at current prevalence levels etc), most of us actually can choose "no vaccine and no virus". Or put another way we can choose between guaranteed cell damage from vaccines, or the chance of cell damage from virus the exact probability of which is some integral of prevalence, individual risk behavior, how quickly you get treated (e.g. with ivermectin), and how many people around you are vaccinated. To me it looks like a good tradeoff to not take the vaccine, especially when so many other people are: the chance of avoiding cell damage entirely is really quite high, and I like my body spike-free. Stories like the Reuters article this thread is about just reinforce that decision.
If I had enthusiastically queued up to get vaccinated as soon as I was able where I live, I would have received a treatment (AstraZenica vaccine) that has since been withdrawn from my age group. Tell me how my caution has not been justified.
Just for fun - what governments have followed the "most obvious path"? There aren't many left, of the supposed golden list everyone liked to promote last year. Vietnam - apparently a fine example of what happens when we "all just wear a mask" - after months with deaths oddly flatlined at 35, they are now experiencing a dramatic rise in cases over the past few weeks. South Korea - has now been experiencing increases in deaths and cases over the last few months. The stats for Australia look good, but they continue to live under draconian measures, and have gained a reputation for allowing the rich and famous (including sports players) to publicly flout the rules. It's a similar story in New Zealand, and those last two countries also enjoy unique geographical and demographic situations not shared by many others (remote, sparsely-populated island nations).
I made the absolutely correct assessment that the balance of probabilities was strongly in favour of the idea that mixing vaccines would be at least as effective as getting the same shot twice. A really good example of taking a most obvious path.
There are lots of jurisdictions that have done a very good job doing just very obvious things that work. Pretending that recent challenges or flare-ups negates the enormous areas under the death and hospitalisation curves to this point for these places is another example of obvious dishonesty in your arguments. This is like when Trump said "South Korea I hear isn't doing that well anymore" when the epidemic was raging in the US and SK was trying to get a daily case count in the hundreds under control.
As well citing the powerful flouting the rules as some excuse to not have rules is doubly dishonest and silly.
Australia's "draconian" rules look pretty good to me, under the draconian rules I am living under I can't go to a comedy club - I could in Melbourne. And if my neighbour lived in Melbourne I presume that the gall bladder surgery that he's had delayed 3 times because the hospitals are full would be done already. I live in place that effectively cancelled Mother's Day on the Friday in a bout of such stupid incompetence that seemed almost perfectly designed to bankrupt restaurants after weeks of warnings from the doctors and the media that the hospitals are literally filling up. The correct path in that instance was obvious, the government refused to take it and now I am in fact still living under draconian rules that could have been relaxed weeks ago if timely action had been taken.
If you want an example of a jurisdiction that has hardly any advantages and many, many disadvantages I would point you towards Atlantic Canada - a highly import dependent economy that is very integrated with the US and the rest of Canada, strained healthcare system at the best of times, and a very old population. Look at their results, moderate travel restrictions, reasonable enforcement, high levels of public engagement. It wasn't even very hard for them to do it, they just had to make the choice and did so.
There are conditions where there are currently single-digit known sufferers among thar 7B, far fron sufficient to adequately test even one claim about that condition or its treatment, so, yes, 7B people isn’t enough to test every medical claim.
> Are you saying that because we cant determine with precision life span that we cant precisely understand medical results ?
Since one of the questions about medical results is about effect on lifespan, the former would certainly imply the latter.
Funny. The two examples that you have used as "thought harmless but then found out to be harmful", tobacco and asbestos, are as natural _as it gets_. One is a leaf and the other is a rock. They have in fact been in use _literally_ since the STONE AGE. Dunno how to redefine "natural" to not include them without also excluding domestication, most cooking or practically all of civilization.
You can definitely take a lesson here. The "natural order of things" is either on the eye of the beholder and therefore useless as a scientific concept or outright amongst the most dangerous thing to happen to humanity, and hardly "smarter than our technology" which is what detected its harmfulness in the first place. Your choice.
I hear you, though it's not an effort at convincing the OP employing manipulative communication.
It's an effort at highlighting the manipulation—with references—so that vulnerable readers are informed and inoculated against it. Unlike OP's comment, scientific skepticism simply seeks information, insight, and references in order to inform their own opinions rather than making assumptions on faith.
> ... it's an effort at highlighting the manipulation—with references—so that vulnerable readers are informed and inoculated against it.
as i've already shown (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27467720) you invented the "manipulation", ie. you generated misinformation, and you're clearly acknowledging here that you're using that misinformation in order to affect "vulnerable readers", ie. for propaganda purposes.
Done.
you said it yourself. It is kind of ironically not surprising that you levied the above mentioned claim and actually posted the misinformation and propaganda yourself - see below.
>No, you weren't.
you really don't know, yet you're making with complete confidence such a completely false blatantly contradicting facts[0] statement just because it suits your narrative
>A common false-flag ...
and helps you to advance your agenda. Thus your post is a clear example of misinformation and propaganda. Not sure that you're doing it intentionally, probably you're just caught up in that mob hysteria.
(in all honesty, I clicked the post a few times and wondered why you were linking it, but it only clicked after mike drew attention to it.)
Anyway, I apologize for doubting. I still don't understand your position regarding the current batch of mRNA vaccines, but I can appreciate that you're not an anti-vaccine generalist.
My guess is that what drew so much ire was the tone and presentation. Similar to "thus winning the argument against eganist completely" when it was less of an argument and more of an immune response to common patterns that proved in this case to be a false positive.
But yes, simply going with quoting the past post, drawing attention to it very clearly in text ("Please see linked one example of a past post where I've declared my own pro-vaccine views"), and then using that past position to contextualize their current aversion would've been great for constructive engagement.
Water under the bridge. Either way, sorry trhway; glad you're not anti-vax, but hoping to win you over to the mRNA side (though feel free to laugh at me on my way to the grave if I die of vaccine induced long term effects. I guess I'll have earned it at that point).
That’s how the immmune system works in general, with or without the vaccine.
> what you're saying is that there's effectively no difference to the recipient beyond the fact that the artificial self-replicating mRNA might be higher "quality" in some way
It’s the difference between taking a known dose with quality control or an unknown dose with no quality control.
> Let's put it like this: given the apparently low probability of being infected (for people my age, in a way that we actually notice, at current prevalence levels etc), most of us actually can choose "no vaccine and no virus".
Let’s put it like this. you can take vaccine and have an extremely rare chance if pericarditis, or eventually get the virus (it’s not going away) and have a higher chance of pericarditis.
The assumption that eventually SARS-CoV-2 will infect 100% of the population is a common modelling assumption. When I went looking for validation of it, I couldn't find any.
As for known dosages, as I say above, I couldn't find any information comparing dosages or cell death levels of vaccines vs actual viral infections. That would certainly be helpful to know, assuming such reports were reliable.
It's unlikely you will find validation outside an entry-level text book for virology or epidemiology. From my understanding it's a fundamental assumption that's easy to verify: ALL viruses with a similar transmissibility profile as SARS-Cov-2 (high R0, aerosols) have become endemic, that includes e.g. seasonal influenza and all other human coronaviruses.
That's the reason seasonal influenza is not a big issue most of the time, because we already had it in the past (or a related strain) and our immune system is primed. This happens usually as children and is the reason why both young children and their parents are a lot more ill than the average.
A completely new influenza strain, however, has a similar pandemic potential as SARS-Cov-2, and one hypothesis why the 1918 influenza was so deadly for younger generations is that they likely had not encountered it before, while the older had.
In fact, if SARS-Cov-2 wouldn't go the same route as basically all similar viruses have done before, it would be a big surprise. Try to speak to an expert in the field, preferably a virologist or an epidemiologist.
Somewhat related: it's a common cognitive bias to trust self-generated knowledge more than the knowledge from others.
You also have to consider that the absolute risk (the risk of catching Sars-Cov2 multiplied by the risk of COVID) is far lower with current prevalence.
In the end, you arrive at a low known risk either way. It then depends on how you weigh the unknown risks. There's a strong incentive to downplay risks of vaccination "for the public good" while simultaneously exaggerating the risk of infection. By posting these inflated/deflated numbers, you're playing your part, knowingly or not.
and you are playing your part knowingly or unknowingly in possibly causing the mutation and spread of a new variant that is not effectively controlled by the current crop of vaccines which could lead to another lockdown and mass deaths.
When masks come off there will be a sharp uptick in unvaccinated people getting covid and dying... the current majority of people that get covid and die are the unvaccinated by a large, large margin. It's not going away and you will likely get covid if you are unvaccinated since it spreads so well and life is going back to maskless soon enough.
We already have the situation that vector-virus COVID vaccines are likely deadlier to younger women than the virus itself. Of course, having all these women vaccinated may well have saved more lives in total, but it would still be immoral to recommend it to them, if their personal risk from the vaccination is higher than from the virus.
> When masks come off there will be a sharp uptick in unvaccinated people getting covid and dying...
In relative terms, but probably not in absolute terms.
> ...the current majority of people that get covid and die are the unvaccinated by a large, large margin.
That's neither here nor there. If you vaccinated 90% of the population, at an idealized 90% efficacy, half the COVID deaths would be in the vaccinated group. What does that tell you about individual risk? Nothing, because it doesn't take into account prevalence in a population that is 90% vaccinated.
I don't doubt that the vaccine is effective, but the absolute risk reduction, for my age group, at current prevalance is probably around 1% (like in the trials). In Israel, the vaccination rate is below 60%, but prevalence is close to zero.
People who are currently healthy choosing to avoid the risk of immediate short-term pain when presented with a small, remote gain seems like classic prospect theory!
[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hosp...
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/info-by-product/pfizer...
you are comparing apples to oranges.
It's rational for someone who is currently healthy, in an age group with a 0.2% of COVID turning into anything more than a standard cold/flu, to turn down an immediate risk (orders of magnitude larger) that they will feel unhealthy for a couple days.
your post is an example of the "logic" that is abundant and has highjacked the info space especially when it comes to covid. The numbers you use are aggregated across the whole age group and not adjusted for health status/risks. There are orders of magnitude difference of risk between different people with different health conditions even in the same age group.
Absolutely nothing in modern epidemiology is validated against real world data as far as I can tell, and virology isn't concerned with the course of epidemics, so I doubt this very much.
The problem this assumption faces (and it is as you point out, only an assumption) is it quickly runs into definitional and logic issues. That's a very common problem in epidemiology and public health as far as I can tell. Viruses evolve, and so when talking about whether they can eventually infect the whole population you have to very carefully consider:
1. How fast they evolve.
2. How fast they spread.
3. How much evolution is required to make something a "new" virus vs an "old" virus.
4. What those evolutions do to disease which is what everyone actually cares about.
If you don't have a very firm grip on these things (and epidemiology doesn't) then you can get into a situation in which by the time a virus has infected "everyone" it's no longer the same virus at all, and thus cannot be said to have actually infected everyone. All the talk of different COVID variants is pointing in this direction. Taken to an extreme it boils down to "everyone will get infected with a virus at some point" which isn't an interesting statement.
Somewhat related: it's a common cognitive bias to trust self-generated knowledge more than the knowledge from others.
Indeed it is, and scientists are very often guilty of this: they reject any and all negative feedback that comes from people "out of field", even if it's extremely relevant to what they're doing. For example rejecting feedback by computer scientists of the form "your program does not work" because computer science isn't the same thing as epidemiology.
But in this case I actually don't trust self-generated knowledge more than the knowledge from others, because I don't claim to have any superior knowledge of epidemiology. I just know the people who claim to be experts, actually aren't.
I was clear in providing citations. At this point, you need to provide your own backing for all the other vaccines you've supported, such as the flu vaccine, MMR, etc. if you want to lend credibility to the idea that you're not broadly anti-vaccine.
Thing is, even if you're against new-technology vaccines, we have numerous old-technology vaccines following the same paradigms used to make the vaccines I mentioned above (AZ, JJ, etc). Being broadly anti-covid-vaccine essentially acknowledges holding generalized anti-vaccine opinions since the majority of vaccines on the market make use of legacy manufacturing techniques.
I don't see this conversation between you and me being any more productive. Sock puppetry (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sock_puppet_account) is a pretty established pattern, and it's easily defeated by asking people to provide their sources, something you haven't done with your assertions against the COVID-19 vaccines.
Cheers, mate. I wish you the best.
Those two are viral-vector vaccines, which isn't old-technology. They're almost as new as mRNA vaccines.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_COVID-19_vaccine_autho...
You're assuming everyone has the same knowledge base as you and then inferring their decision making process from that. More likely is that people have formed broad opinions about a new event based on scattered information. That's the sort of information that would be helpful to provide, not Wikipedia pages to generalized propaganda techniques.
Hey, thanks for that. This helped me rethink and understand the entire conversation.
I'm not sure how much more effective new information or facts would be either, in hindsight, but it did remind me of an old publication (not research, I should add) discussing the use of personal narratives and stories to fight vaccine misinformation: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.4161/hv.24828
Possibly effective against other forms of misinformation too. Sadly, I'm too buried in the facts and not enough of a storyteller to be effective here.
>I was clear in providing citations.
All the citations/links you brought in were to build a house of cards of your pet narrative on top of a factually wrong false statement you generated about me out of nothing. You generated that false statement in order to be able to apply those citations. Without that foundational false statement your citations didn't make sense.
Now, once you've got caught (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27467720) by me showing that you just casually generated that misinformation, you're trying to drown that fact under the pile of the long winded meaningless word-abouts like this gem here:
>Being broadly anti-covid-vaccine essentially acknowledges holding generalized anti-vaccine opinions since the majority of vaccines on the market make use of legacy manufacturing techniques.
It is a classic device of propaganda - equating risk-benefit analysis unfavorable in a specific narrow situation (a healthy very low risk group in this case) with blanket non-acceptance ("broadly anti-covid-vaccine"). Like back in the USSR - "You don't like the absence of hot water?! You're anti-Soviet!" It is strange that you didn't notice that propaganda device description among your "manipulation" describing links.
It is pretty clear that you're trying to paint me, against the already demonstrated facts, as an anti-vaxxer in order to undermine whatever i was saying. I think you'll be able to find on your own a link describing that fallacy.
except that's not the statistic... that's the death statistic for that age group. the odds of getting sicker than cold/flu are higher still and you will get much much sicker than the vaccine will give most people.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics
the death rate in that cohort is 0.36% or about 1 in 300
14,387 deaths in 3,978,547 cases
considering that they are on the high end of that bracket the next higher bracket is about 1.3% mortality rate or about 1 in 100 though that houses the group up to age 64 so it's more likely closer to the 0.5%-0.8% mortality rate but that's interpolating the data so it's messy.
