China releases a five-year regulation blueprint for broader crackdown(bloombergquint.com) |
China releases a five-year regulation blueprint for broader crackdown(bloombergquint.com) |
I remember seeing a sign at the Hong Kong border when going to the mainland warning that there was a maximum amount of infant formula that could be taken across. Hopefully this is that crackdown.
I don't know if you really mean it or you are forced to well imagine it so your comment won't be downvoted.
I'll bet they're pleased with you-know-who's you-know-what.
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/07/china-christ...
[1] https://www.chinajusticeobserver.com/a/what-is-the-convictio...
Food shortage is going to cause riots in US, Canada, and EU for sure. Just based on the vaccine protests/riots, imagine what will happen when rationing is introduced.
He's going to crack down hard and control the population, so when the inevitable comes there is acceptence.
They will obey as long as the state has power, which will be for the far foreseeable future.
The Chinese government has been smart enhance its power by keeping its domestic businesses in a strictly subordinate position and creating an environment were foreign businesses cooperate because dependence is the best business decision (e.g. Apple has no "plan B," it's China all the way for them).
And it might work out for them, especially if foreign nations continue to complacently indulge in free market Kool-Aid.
I know many people who work, or worked for Apple on the hardware side.
I assure you, Apple has "plan B," and it been trying executing on it relentlessly for the last 2 years — just without any success.
Vietnam's total electronics industry output is like a single district in Dongguan. The supply chain is very, very immature there, despite it already towering above any other place in developing Asia, but China.
If what my buddies tell me of Apple's internal assesment of countries is correct, no other countries are even close to a 2nd place alternative on that, except for Taiwan, which is their "plan C" — a sure to work, but expensive option if everything else fails.
Strange question with what I would consider to be an obvious answer. They will obey for as long as they want the profits they get from China's market of video game players for instance. Which strikes me as pretty much "forever".
What company is gonna leave and give that kind of gift wrapped profit center to someone else voluntarily?
The trick for China is to get the regulations in place that are necessary, without putting so many in place that it strangles profitability (and therefore destroys business). But come to think of it, that's the trick for any country when regulating.
When it's no longer a gift.
These companies are sometimes high flying startups along the lines of US firms and they require access to capital.
If their valuations are clipped by an order of magnitude because of regulatory apparatus (i.e. can't list in the US and American investors have no appetite for Chinese exchanges), then this will be a problem for a lot of businesses.
TikTok is getting big in the US and the West where margins are a lot fatter, it could feasibly make more sense for Bytedance to jump ship and become an American-based company with a Chinese workforce. Obviously that's hugely speculative but just an example.
It's like any bit of regulation it has a bunch of externalities. Some may be pretty bad for the company. Maybe, maybe not.
Probably as long as the regulation exists. It is amazing, but once there is the real threat of personal, physical imprisonment, most CEOs are pretty good about making sure regulations get followed despite any impact on the stock price.
Edit: If
2. Even if there were a mass exodus (Which won't happen, because #1), the factories, the expertise, the knowledge base and the human capital those investments paid for aren't going to disappear. All that will happen is that they will become China-owned, as opposed to partially China-owned.
The part you quoted probably means they want to get to the point where if someone in Jiangsu needs documents archived in Zhejiang, they can just access them through a unified platform instead of having to ask their colleagues there to send them over.
“In accordance with the requirements of the State Council’s ‘Internet + Supervision’, Zhejiang has vigorously promoted the pilot work of a unified administrative law enforcement and supervision platform across the province. The platform includes dual-random administrative law enforcement, a list of law enforcement matters, supervisory account management, schedule supervision and inspection, special law enforcement inspection, grassroots four-platform linkage management, departmental collaborative management and other module functions. Through this system, it is possible to enter law enforcement information online, transfer law enforcement procedures online, supervise law enforcement activities online, push law enforcement decisions in real time, and publicize law enforcement information in a unified manner, so as to realize the entire process of administrative law enforcement. At the end of May this year, the platform launched a handheld law enforcement app on Zhezheng Ding. Law enforcement officers can log in to the handheld law enforcement system using Dingding accounts. The handheld law enforcement APP system has four functional modules: supervision and inspection, supervision object management, classified supervision, inquiry and work assistance, which can meet the requirements of various inspection methods such as incident verification, daily inspection, and random inspection in administrative law enforcement inspection. Summarize law enforcement data with complete functions.”
I'm curious how that will work. Are you saying CCP propaganda on TikTok is going to ease famine?
The US (along with France) can easily supply all the food they need to its citizens. Along with the alliances with Mexico and Canada, the US is not going to have food shortages, much less riots.
China, on the other hand, is definitely screwed on this front. All of its neighbors are either outright enemies or begrudging allies. As the global order continues to collapse, China will see constraints on its shipping routes that will lead to shortages of key goods.
The food shortages won't hit as bad, though, since the population is declining. Just not fast enough, unfortunately.
https://www.agupdate.com/livestockroundup/markets/corn-proje...
some other examples of crop failures currently happening
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/06/midwe...
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/19/extreme-heat-wave-hits-us-fa...
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/15/austr...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/20/crop-fai...
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-02/low-rice-crop-lead...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people...
https://phys.org/news/2019-12-climate-whammy-corn-belt.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/11/12/britain-facing-p...
https://weather.com/science/environment/news/2019-08-01-drou...
https://phys.org/news/2020-01-atlantic-circulation-collapse-...
https://phys.org/news/2019-12-climate-threat-global-breadbas...
https://phys.org/news/2019-12-large-atmospheric-jet-stream-g...
and here are some scientific studies projecting future crop failures:
Schlenker and Roberts, 2009. Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to US crop yields under climate change. PNAS, 106(37), pp.15594-15598 https://www.pnas.org/content/106/37/15594.full
Mora et al, 2015. Suitable days for plant growth disappear under projected climate change: Potential human and biotic vulnerability. PLoS bio, 13(6), p.e1002167 https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/jou...
Schauberger et al, 2017. Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models. Nature Comms, 8, p.13931. https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13931
Sakschewski et al, 2014. Feeding 10 billion people under climate change: How large is the production gap of current agricultural systems?. Ecological modelling, 288, pp.103-111 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263472623_Feeding_1...
Liang et al, 2017. Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity. PNAS, 114(12), pp.E2285-E2292 https://www.pnas.org/content/114/12/E2285?collection=
Not saying it’s a good thing overall of course.
I had occasion to read some New York Times newspapers from 1917 and 1918, and they were filled with stories about how Mr. Lenine's (sic) government was about to fall if not already in flight. Off the mark by 70 years or so, and Russia is still run by former CP nomenklatura.
But yes, if someone is under surveillance, reducing paperwork will probably make that more efficient, too. It's just not the exclusive focus of this reform.
https://www.economist.com/the-world-if/2020/07/04/what-if-wa...
Edit: Downvoted again, you idiots xD classic HN
I'm also not at all sure what some statistic about conviction rates in criminal cases has to do with the quality of litigation, arbitration, IP law and the commercial court system. This is a real "I just pulled a random number from Google" take
You didn't specify so I gave you the number I am familiar with on the subject of my own interest, that is the surrender of power into the hands of the arbitrary.
Had you been more specific, I wouldn't have asked.
Can you share any details about that?
> If what my buddies tell me of Apple's internal assesment of countries is correct, no other countries are even close to a 2nd place alternative on that, except for Taiwan, which is their "plan C" — a sure to work, but expensive option if everything else fails.
That's actually kind of what I meant by "there's no plan B." They may be able to formulate other plans (B, C, D, etc.) and even spend a little money on them, but Western business-thinking won't let them actually deviate from plan A.
One of China's advantages is that the West puts business in the driver's seat in a lot of situations, but business is short-sighted, selfish, and geopolitically naive, so it is exploitable and controllable with the right methods.
Well, I heard story first hand. It's not a secret to anybody in the Industry too.
Apple been quietly trying to invite its part makers to setup factories in Vietnam, sometimes quite coercively.
Apple is just doing something wrong is all.
China is self sufficient except meat, which is fine now.
So in 20 years, your going to tell the people in the cities who are used to eating meat daily that they are going down to meat only 2 days a week. Is your rich fuerdai going to be totally content with that?
What exactly are you saying that it's going worse this year? There might be regions where production dropped (e.g. Canada plains), but overall we are higher than last year and higher than the average.
e.g.
> USDA forecasts marketing year 2021/22 European Union (EU) corn production at 65.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.2 mmt or 2 percent from last month, but 2 percent above last year’s crop and 3 percent above the 5-year average.
from https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdf
2. Foreigners selling will lead to locals buying. Those firms will simply go from majority-Chinese-owned, to Chinese-owned.
3. Stock markets don't just go up all the time, sometimes they correct.
[1] It does in the United States, but that's because during slumps, the government is very skittish when it comes to creating demand, outside of the MIC. The CCP takes a longer view, and actively prioritizes building up China's industrial base, as opposed to dismantling and offshoring it.
Capable manufacturing doesn’t matter when automation can be reshored, when there are shipping delays and pricing spike, when labor costs are rising fast.
Not sure why we are discussing validity of exodus when public companies have already reported mass exodus of manufacturing from China.
India is not the fastest growing market, either in relative, or absolute terms. The number of globally-middle class people in China far eclipses the number of their counterparts in India. The rate at which people enter the global-middle class is much faster in China. It's possible that one day, India will become the fastest growing market, but that day isn't today, or tomorrow, or next year.
> Capable manufacturing doesn’t matter when automation can be reshored, when there are shipping delays and pricing spike, when labor costs are rising fast.
You simply can't re-shore the ecosystem that arose in Shenzhen. Not without two decades of hemorrhaging money, depending on government handouts, and having a much slower time to market. The labour cost isn't even the problem, there's just no supporting industry in the US that can match the turnaround times/SLAs that vendors in China offer.
It's possible for say, the US to close down its economy, build a wall of tariffs, and only buy local (And thus, eventually, at great cost, rebuild its industry. It's not a bad idea, but the electorate won't stand for it), but those factories in Shenzhen will keep operating, and will pivot towards selling to the middle class of the domestic market, and of the developing world, instead.
https://forestpolicypub.com/2015/09/01/official-year-to-date...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03838-0
And anyway, what do fires have to do with agriculture? Usually fires happen in forests and uncultivated land.
> Arrest people who report freely on a unjust case
> Arrest & incarcerate the lawyer of the accused
> Forces the accused, by threatening his family, to confess to crimes on video
> And then lifestream those confession videos to the world as "evidence"
> The western government do not have much control over their "justice" systems as in, they can not turn on & off cases as they feel
(Although they wish they have, and they have watered it down, by creating crimes that everyone automatically commits in recent years + selective enforcement laws)
But yeah, the west needs to get better. It always does. And so does china.
But lets take something objective- the "were does money flee towards and were from" as a measurement of law and lawlessness and watch the crypto bleed out of china were it can. I rest my case on the scale of law and lawlessness.
Julian Assange.
Allegedly, Lauri Love.
Jake Appelbaum hasn't been arrested, but he's not doing that well either. He was harassed by law enforcement for years after his reporting on the Iraq war.
After Gary Webb's reporting revealed that the CIA had been trafficking cocaine to Los Angeles, using the money to support a terrorist campaign in Nicaragua, he wasn't arrested, but he was forced to resign, and no newspaper would hire him thereafter; he was found dead in his home with two gunshot wounds to the head. The death was ruled a suicide.
Edward Snowden fled to Russia to escape arrest.
Reality Winner has been incarcerated for five years because she revealed the Russian interference in the US election in 02016; she's still imprisoned.
Chelsea Manning was imprisoned from 02010 until 02017, and has been barred from entering Canada or Australia (which, if not in the West, is at least a close ally of the West).
John Kiriakou, who revealed the US torture of prisoners, was imprisoned for two years in 02013 to 02015.
NPR reporter Mumia Abu-Jamal covered the abuses of the notoriously corrupt Philadelphia police force and was kept under illegal surveillance by the FBI; in 01981 the police accused him of murdering a cop who had shot him after beating up his brother. At the trial, he was not allowed to represent himself, instead being represented by a court-appointed attorney he described as a "baboon". He was convicted and has been in prison for 39 years. Four years later, the Philadelphia police dropped two firebombs from a helicopter onto a townhouse owned by a group of his friends, killing eleven of them (five of them children) and burning down 65 houses.
"The west" absolutely does arrest people for reporting freely on cases of injustice. Sometimes they do more than arrest them.
Reporters Without Borders has the US at #44 in their press freedom ranking index: https://rsf.org/en/ranking
That's worse than Botswana, Taiwan, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Lithuania, Namibia, Latvia, Samoa, and New Zealand. Other countries in the west, like Belize, Chile, Poland, Argentina, Brazil, and Greece, are even further down the list. (PRC is of course near the bottom at #177.)
> Arrest & incarcerate the lawyer of the accused
True, no cases of this in EU, UK, and USA come to mind at the moment. I've known a lot of lawyers here in Argentina who have been threatened with this, but none that it has happened to since the end of the US-supported dictatorship 37 years ago.
> Forces the accused, by threatening his family, to confess to crimes on video
I think you would be surprised at what goes on in grand jury cases. It's not quite the same: by threatening the family of the accused, the government "forces" them to testify against the accused in secret, and not tell the accused what they testified, or even that there was an investigation. Prosecutors and the police can do much the same, whenever they please, except that they can't prohibit the family members in question from telling the accused about it.
> And then lifestream those confession videos to the world as "evidence"
It's true that confessions are rarely broadcast live in "the west", but I'm not clear on how that is relevant to questions of justice.
> The western government do not have much control over their "justice" systems as in, they can not turn on & off cases as they feel
Prosecutorial discretion is very wide in the US. 98% of defendants in federal cases plead guilty without a trial. In US criminal cases that make it to trial, in felony cases, 68% are convicted. (That statistic includes non-federal cases.) Basically if a prosecutor decides to go after you, you are fucked. My friend Aaron committed suicide after being hounded by federal prosecutors for several years and facing decades in prison. His alleged crime was downloading too many academic papers from JSTOR.
EDIT: and by "Russians" here I rather mean "former Soviet citizens".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
There are many other sources / economists who will support that, wikipedia is just the fastest.
Stalin's government did do a great job of ramping up industrial production before and during WW2.
The economic landscape of the US at the time was the Depression, whereas the USSR economy was chugging along, other than the poor harvest in the Ukraine that year. Walter Duranty of the New York Times visited Ukraine at the time, and said the harvest was not a good one but a lot of reports coming out of the Ukraine were overblown.
The point is, whatever survivor's of thirties tell, thirties were a terrible time, even if they were living in a relatively well off Moscow.
That's the only truth, not that of lunatical historians which have nothing, but digits to look on, and imagining things well knowing that pretty much nothing in official economics documents from USSR' reflected reality.
Stalin, and his industrial proves is another busted for 100th time trope, straight out of original propaganda. A thing glaringly obvious to any Russian citizen who had at some time a surviving relative who went through that time, but not to people who purposefully keep returning to it for search of their worldview validation "alternative facts"
I am not sure how earlier political liberalization could have saved the USSR, which was essentially a (communist) imperialist dictatorship.
NK doesn't go to wars outside it. And they have support of China. This surely supports a long term stability... but how much of a long term, remains to be seen.
A high stock price prevents a corporate takeover (which is not a real-world-value-destroying activity - factories operated by a company don't burn up when it happens), and it makes it possible for the firm to raise money by selling stock. In a world of low interest rates, and easy credit, this is not very important.