Tesla Q3 2021 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

Tesla Q3 2021 Vehicle Production and Deliveries(ir.tesla.com)

91 points by bald 4 years ago | 88 comments

Wow, didn't realize there was such a discrepancy between Model 3/Y volume and Model S/X volume. I expected it to be substantial but not a 25x difference.

judge2020 4 years ago | |

Before the S/X refresh which started around December 24 2020[0], they had ~16k S/X in q3 and q4 2020[1]. Retooling for the refresh was supposedly going to last only a month, but it turned into them only producing Model S cars starting in June and X orders still have no delivery date[2].

0: https://insideevs.com/news/460036/tesla-shut-down-model-s-x-...

1: https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/1LRLZK_2020_Q4_Quarterly_...

2: https://twitter.com/DirtyTesla/status/1443543167098359813

hesdeadjim 4 years ago | |

I mean, a Model X with some options hits $110k quick. A fully kitted long range Y is about $65k. That latter number is a lot still, but way, way, way closer in the range of what an above average income earner can afford.

There is also the absurdity of spending $100k+ on an asset that depreciates so heavily. My spouse and I make enough money to afford this car without much thought, but there isn’t a chance in hell I’d light that much money on fire.

tdhz77 4 years ago | | |

You could nearly double your range by buying two model Y’s it would give you around 600 miles — a much better price, and theoretically you could tow charge one and charge it, so it’s not out of the realm of possible.

To be fairrrr, only people that have range anxiety are those that listen to the oil and gas industry.

purple_ferret 4 years ago | |

They pulled the Model S Plaid Plus, so I'm sure some cancelled orders

terafo 4 years ago |

For reference: they did 139k in Q3 2020 and 184k in Q1 2021. That's pretty nice growth, but still much less than any major car company.

maxharris 4 years ago | |

These numbers do not include Giga Texas or Giga Berlin, both of which are nearing completion. Each of these factories are estimated to ramp to 500k vehicles/year in the first phase (going far higher in the years to follow). Giga Texas alone has around 8 million square feet of factory space, whereas GM has around 33.9 million square feet factory space, dedicated purely to ICE vehicle production, in its 10 US factories.

I expect that around 900k Teslas will be produced and sold in 2021. The new factories easily bring that up to something around 1.8m-2m in 2022.

At present, Toyota produces something on the order of 10m gasoline vehicles per year, and roughly zero EVs.

jcims 4 years ago | | |

I'm not even a layman in this area but I think a lot of the vertical integration for Tesla is purely the result of them being on the flame front of growth in new technological domains. An automaker creating new ASICs and new batteries is atypical, but they are in a much better position to both understand the demand and absorb the risk. Early automakers were in the same position, but eventually the worst ideas were filtered out and industry was able to develop around each of these areas until they could compete favorably with internally developed products.

Musk's approach for both Tesla and SpaceX seem to be a very effective to effectively push into a new domain if you have the money and the guts to try. It will be interesting to watch how they evolve over time.

Seanambers 4 years ago | | |

The argument about Tesla being to small to matter is dwindling fast. Elon has publicly stated a goal of a yearly production run rate of 20 million before 2030.

And let's not get into the profit margins which is way better than ICE :)

ksec 4 years ago | | |

If these projections are true, one fifth of Toyota by 2022 and still growing is an astonishing achievement.

sidcool 4 years ago | |

Considering they are a new company on a manufacturing time scale, it's pretty impressive.

terafo 4 years ago | | |

That's very impressive indeed and if they can keep growing like this few more years they will definitely have more revenue than any other car company and might be top 1 by cars produced in less than a decade.

mhh__ 4 years ago | | |

They're a new company but they're also not that new anymore if you consider that they've been an established player for years now.

bryanlarsen 4 years ago | |

GM only sold 470k this quarter in the US. Not sure what GM's global sales are, but Tesla is getting closer to being comparable.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2021/1...

terafo 4 years ago | | |

Wiki says that they sold almost 7 million in 2020 globally. To get to top 10 it's required to sell something like 2 million units globally.

tonyedgecombe 4 years ago | |

A few more years at that growth rate and they will pass BMW.

ecpottinger 4 years ago | |

What other company has that percentage growth in sales?

p49k 4 years ago | |

Average price per vehicle is much higher than other brands. In terms of revenue in dollars, It seems they are on track to surpass Nissan next year, no?

nuclearnice1 4 years ago | | |

Nissan is forecasting 9.75 trillion yen (88 billion usd) in net revenue for 2021.

Tesla had automotive revenues of 19 billion usd in the first two quarters of 2021.

thesis 4 years ago |

Isn’t this even more impressive with the current chip shortage affecting every other car manufacturer on the planet?

judge2020 4 years ago | |

The chip shortage is easily explained by this[0]. Tesla didn't pull shenanigans like other auto manufacturers, so they aren't nearly as affected.

0: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26931498

terafo 4 years ago | | |

And they are more vertically integrated on semiconductor side than other auto manufacturers.

therouwboat 4 years ago | |

Other manufacturers also make a lot more cars.

oxplot 4 years ago | |

Not sure where I read this but Tesla seems to rely a lot more on software than specialized chips so they can swap them out for another one that's available, with lot less effort than other manufacturers.

6gvONxR4sf7o 4 years ago |

For reference (because if you’re like me you have no scale for this), this is about 10% of what Toyota does, which is way closer than I’d expected.

c54 4 years ago |

Does anyone know of any analysis of Tesla’s quality control? This[0] thread on twitter was pretty interesting but I’d love something more encompassing

[0] https://twitter.com/snazzyq/status/1434936396096028674?s=21

sidcool 4 years ago |

This is a blowout quarter. They are well on their way to sell maximum cars this year in their history.

seoaeu 4 years ago | |

Doesn't their stock valuation count on basically every year being better than the last for a long time to come?

fullshark 4 years ago | | |

Their stock valuation counts on them taking 60%+ of the global car market, and their cars being a computer network that generates new revenue from software improvements in perpetuity.

toomuchtodo 4 years ago | | |

Yes, and as long as enough investors believe in that thesis, it'll stay where its at.

What's Uber's stock price and valuation after burning $30 billion dollars and still not turning a profit? (Uber picked in particular because I'm familiar with their financials)

buzzwords 4 years ago | | |

Stock prices are not always rational. I'm not sure why. But one of the contributing factor could be things like ETFs where stocks were bought to track a particular sector or index regardless of their financials. (I'm just guessing, I don't have a financial background)

smoldesu 4 years ago |

The other day I heard someone say that Rivian intends to deliver 40,000 vehicles next year, total. Musk runs his mouth on a lot of stuff, but it's pretty hard to knock his manufacturing when he's got a 20x lead on the competition. Hell, I was blown away by how quickly Starlink went from concept to reality, but figures like these really help put the scale into perspective. It's like capitalism down to a science, for better and worse.