The Black Sky Event(theblackskyevent.com) |
The Black Sky Event(theblackskyevent.com) |
Comments like this seem like a red flag on the scientific accuracy and neutrality of this documentary.
The fear mongers would have you believe that we're just one glitch away from the destruction of civilization, widespread violence and cannibalism in your cul-de-sac.
But we have major catastrophes fairly often, and time after time we see people helping people, not purging them.
However when ressources are no longer produced, people get hungry and desperate with no lights at the end of the tunnel, i.e. real game-changing global catastrophe, I hope I am wrong (and hope even more to never test that theory), but I doubt this would bring the best of humanity overall.
Fear mongers have one good thing: if you can reply with facts and destroy their theories, nutcase aliens mind controlling aside, it means that it has been studied or acknowledged. Simple dismissal might not be the best way to fix holes or anxious bodies.
This is NOT the same as a hypothetical EMP.
An EMP could potentially fry everything from small electronic devices (like those which control the flows in oil and gas pipelines and in chemical plants, and the circuit breakers meant to protect the grid from power surges) to the about 2500 large power transformers at the core of the US grid, which would take years to replace even under ideal conditions.
https://worldif.economist.com/article/13526/electromagnetic-...
In a dying society like that however, it will be almost impossible to allocate labor to fix issues that caused the blackout, because as time goes on, violence on the streets increases. Weeks on end without food, water, heat, sanitation, order on the streets, weeks without ability to call or text anyone, people's trust into the government disappears, as does the trust into the currency of the country.
In a scenario like that, society eventually hits the point of no return.
Also, I present Hurricane Maria hitting Puerto Rico as hard evidence that when the power is out for 2 weeks the society doesn't descend into violence
Finally, this film looks like it's made from stock videos (of course China, Iran, Russia would be red on that map, tovarisch!). Come on, you got to do better than this.
Carrington-level events though are roughly every 100-150 years, of that we're pretty certain and it's been like 160 years since the last one.
A Cascadia Tsunami apparently hits every 240 years (on average according to VERY good records from Japan), the last one would've decimated basically half the state of Washington.... probably most of Seattle, etc.. not sure about if it goes up to Vancouver, etc...
As far as things that are due to hit us, besides global warming related catastrophes, I think Carrington and Cascadia Tsunami's probably have the most possibility of occurring soonest. Carrington is the scariest though... as it basically affects everyone globally and sets us back to the 1800s..
Earthquakes (e.g. cascadia) are different. Tectonic strain is quantifiable.
If an attack took out the whole US grid in an irrepairable way, the power vacuum would cause huge wars around the globe, and it would cost the aggressor at least a couple of major cities from a nuclear strike response. It would also cause mass casulties from refugee inflows taking advantage of the chaos. There would be so much death it's just statistics at that point - it's just not a rational decision for an aggressor country to cause an EMP or to leverage it. Imagine trying to occupy a country that had been EMP'd? It would be like 100 Afghanistans and a thousand Vietnams, just in America. In that total failure situation, everyone is going to die of starvation or infection and disease, so responding with violence at that stage to mitigate it is a relative mercy.
Understanding those consequences of destroying civiliztion, if I were a national leader, I wouldn't hesitate to order that counter strike, and I am sure the actual leaders apprehend that logic as well. If there were a question of attribution, the first one to move against our allies would have to lose their capitol. Aggressors only understand costs, and failure to impose them is an invitation . This Mutually Assured Destruction is the worst, but only guarantee against an EMP attack.
If it were a solar event, nations would still have to protect allies militarily, and I don't see anyone benefiting from the chaos enough to let it sustain, especially when the rational actors will escalate apocalyptic violence until some order is restored. Grim thoughts, but oddly hopeful because I think if people understand the inevitable horrific alternatives to keeping it together, we will have ample incentive to do so.
https://assets.lloyds.com/assets/pdf-solar-storm-risk-to-the...
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So the page now appears to be an advertisement for... childrens' furniture?
Writing solid, characters slightly on the meh side, scientific research pretty ok (from an amateurs perspective, that is).
2 years without a supply chain, grocery stores, etc... of course that would equally affect our enemies abroad.
If any enemy abroad did it...we'd probably be ready to surrender in a month if they just provide food and supplies for the 3rd world country that used to be America.
There's a question I occasionally ask people: what would you do if you woke up and the power was off and it wasn't coming back on any time soon? That's not an unreasonable scenario - it can happen in the US, as we've seen. I'm not talking permanently, but say it's indefinite: you don't know when the power will come back on, but not today or tomorrow or this week. No cell service, and - depending on where you live - maybe no water or heating either.
So what do you do? I mean specifically: what would you, not a theoretical person but you, do if that happened?
Most people don't have any idea, and a shocking number of them reply the same way: "I guess I'd probably just die." I've heard that from people of every race, age and gender. And they're not really kidding.
I have a lot of issues with the culture of "preppers", because there seems to be a lot of really nasty and unpleasant politics always lurking around there - like, I'll go find some sort of teehnical discussion of how to keep dry goods for long periods and halfway through the writer will start muttering about race wars or some awful fucking thing - but I do think there's value in at least having some skills and knowledge in that direction. I mean, I'm not Grizzly Adams, but in my thirties I realized that most of my skills involved computers, and that I'd be functionally useless in such a scenario.
So I started teaching myself basic carpentry and handyman stuff, learning how to make things with my hands and how to repair stuff, and how to build a basic shelter, do basic triage - Army survival manual stuff - and then how to wire up solar panels and charge controllers and all that good stuff. I figured out how to keep food - funnily enough, the Mormon church has some of the best community info about that for religious reasons - and safely store water, etc.
Nowadays, I'm the guy people say they'd go find if disaster struck, not because I have some compound with years of canned food and water tanks, but because I've actually thought about that question - what would I do if the power went out? - and tried to come up with good practices and strategies.
I'm working on a book about it, in fact - not a prepper manual but more a guide on how to think and act rationally in such situations, and the sort of information and tools you'd probably need. How to think about things we don't usually think about and come up with concrete plans, not just vague "Oh, I'd get out of town and find a place in the woods to hole up".
(How would you get out of town? If you don't have a car of your own with a full tank of gas, you're probably not going anywhere in a crisis, as public and mass transport will be instantly full. What "woods" would you go to? Some campground you vaguely remember seeing on the side of the highway once? You and a million other people. Planning on buying some energy bars and Dasani water bottles on the drive? Good luck, homie.) :-D
[0] https://nationalfile.com/bombshell-milley-admits-to-secretly...
Cut not only electricity but the ability for people to run, or flee or w/e.
[...]
Can you post a link to your book (or book drafts), if you have it yet? I'd be interested to check it out.
I've wanted to write a sci-fi novels along these lines...except America is in civil war, and hacktivist freedom fighters use drones to essentially fight back against the rogue fascist govt that's taken over.
In the event where the entire US goes into the blackout for 2 weeks, things will be different. Sure, maybe not an apocalyptic anarchy on the streets, but there will be unrest. Because most people don't have extensive food and water reserves at the place of their residence.
The larger point I was trying to make is that things will be getting exponentially worse as time goes on, and the point of no return will be hit eventually, if we are not able to address the issue quickly.
To your larger point: sure if power was out over large swaths of the US for weeks on end, things would be difficult. But the power outage wouldn't be the problem, the problem would be whoever is causing the power to keep going back out (or the radioactive fallout from a nuclear war in the EMP scenario)