Russia 'likely' to invade Ukraine without 'enormous sanctions'

Russia 'likely' to invade Ukraine without 'enormous sanctions'(theguardian.com)

17 points by m1 4 years ago | 10 comments

bell-cot 4 years ago |

High-quality commercial satellite photos are a thing now. Is there decent evidence that Russia is building up the sort of supply & logistics tail needed to support a major invasion? Or just a bunch of shorter-range and token actions - which still would give Moscow "Regional 900 lbs. Gorilla" bragging rights, but at <5% of the cost.

Maybe western powers are talking big about sanctions & such to make it even cheaper for Moscow to feel big. (Vs. actual military action, which tends to kill a lot of people even when "nothing goes wrong".)

And maybe The Guardian does have a passably sophisticated understanding of the situation. But I don't see much evidence of that.

nradov 4 years ago | |

Yes there is some evidence of invasion preparations from commercial satellite imagery.

https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-reveal-russ...

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2021/12/27/satelli...

bell-cot 4 years ago | | |

Maybe I skimmed too fast, but neither link seems to mention a logistical build-up.

You can park tanks on your side of the border and talk big without a major logistical build-up. Or "just barely" cross the border in force. Or run a token few units deep into Ukraine (+/- local opposition). But to actually move large, modern military forces deep into Ukraine (the country is over 500,000 sq. km), a huge logistical build-up would be necessary.

Invasion is not a video game, where tanks & troop transports have unlimited fuel, never need spare parts, and there are big piles of ammunition (of the exact right sizes & types for Russian weapons) scattered every few km through the Ukrainian countryside.

bigodbiel 4 years ago | |

Agreed. One thing is military presence, either hybrid or “protecting Russian nationals” in the disputed regions (self proclaimed peace-keepers). Another is going to Kiev. Going by Mr. Schiff’s quote “further invade” that seems like a reasonable assumption as to where the line is drawn.

Grakel 4 years ago |

I don't know why any large country would invade instead of just slowly, secretly buying the smaller country and it's power over a decade or two. Take China and Taiwan, or this situation in Ukraine. Even a heavy handed economic hostile takeover would be ignored by the other world powers because no individual politician wants to be responsible for starting the fighting. Eventually you own everything, you've moved a ton of citizens in, you've bought all the politicians with puppet corporations. Then they vote to join your wonderful nation.

skinnymuch 4 years ago | |

Isn’t this going to cost a ton of money, too much, and you can only move in so many of your own citizens. Russia can’t move too many of their own since Ukraine doesn’t have a small population. Voters still vote. Not sure why even with puppets, a majority vote to join your country would happen.

andy_jensen 4 years ago | | |

It will also cost a lot to get hit by 'enormous sanctions' plus it wouldn't really be a cost as opposed to a long term investment. China is currently investing heavily in the African infrastructure and I doubt Chinas intentions are philanthropically motivated

Grakel 4 years ago | | |

A military invasion costs more, especially if it doesn't go well. Better to buy, bribe, and bully.