I'm thinking about choosing a new place to live right now. Climate change is a big factor for that.
Ice-albedo feedback - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice%E2%80%93albedo_feedback
Permafrost thaw feedback - https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/global-carbon-budget-perm...
Forestfire\Drought feedback - https://weatherology.com/trending/articles/Drought-Feedback-...
Jetstream Disruption feedback - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/...
It'll be like stopping an avalanche with a shovel.
Any control theory guys out there with suggestions?
We desperately need an energy inexpensive way to sequester atmospheric carbon underground in stable (mineral) form. Hopefully we’ll see progress from Climeworks or similar concerns in this space.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d/...
[0] https://acp.copernicus.org/preprints/15/11799/2015/acpd-15-1...
Nothing small and cheap. We've been applying a massive forcing effect by adding billions of tons of CO2 per year to the atmosphere over decades. It's going to require a commensurate amount of effort, at the very least, to swing the needle back in the other direction.
Our best bet might be something crazy like using nukes to set off volcanoes to generate an ongoing low level 'nuclear winter' type effect. We'd have to be careful to pick the right volcanoes, though, to minimize the CO2 emitted by said volcanoes.
https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-physics/chapter/...
Tipping points have ability to change our climate in a very, very short time.
For example, Gulfstream breaking or redirecting can be a sudden event. Many people forget that Europe is very far north compared to its climate. If you chose a lattitude so that half Canadians live north of it and half south of it, that lattitude would intersect Croatia, Italy and Spain.
A sudden break in Gulfstream would bring immediate step change to European climate, complete crop and extensive infrastructure failure.
Obama bought a property in Martha's Vineyard, why would a former President with all the knowledge about global warming buy it?
I'd honestly love to hear your thinking about how to find a climate-change 'aware' location to live, thanks.
Don't commit to any locale and design a life that's highly mobile.
And they had broad, deep-pocketed support.
Government subsidized them, and protected them after their oil spills.
Media ran Exxon and Chevron's greenwashing ads,
Police beat up protesters, going so far as to infiltrate their groups, seduce their leaders, and have entire fake marriages with them all to keep tabs on them.
Judges sent those protesters to jail - Steven Donziger ought to be a household name, for a recent example.
The military invaded countries illegally for them.
And not a single comment here so far as I can tell is putting any of them on the hook for this ongoing atrocity.
And summers hotter than ever. Have had to buy AC, as if we're in Southern Europe.
200 zettajoules => 2.0e23 J * 4.184 J/cal => 8.36e+23 calories
They say this is the energy absorbed by top 2000 meters of the oceans. There are 84.8 million sq km of ocean.
2000m * 84.8e6 => 1.69e20 liters of water.
1000 calorie to warm 1L of water by 1 deg C.
1.69e20 L / 8.36e23 cal => warmed by 0.2 deg C since 1995.
2.0e23J = 4.78e+22 cal
So I'm not sure what there is to be done, it's like a catch 22. Tell people nothing and they leave it out of their minds, tell them about it and they get desensitized, maybe mobilizing the people is doomed to fail from the start and this thing is irreversible.
Why does the graph have 2 colors? Why is 1995 'zero'?
Not to say climate is not warming up, but news reels always go for the most sensationalistic take they have available because that sell, while more nuanced takes tend to be buried under pressure from the ministry of truth to control the message, as they believe us to be simpletons.
The two colors are negative and positive, a potentially unimportant dramatization.
Clarifying based on what I understood: Data from 1940-today show that the period from 1985-today had 8x more heat added than the period from 1958-1985, and that each decade since 1958 has increased in temperature.
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00376-022-146...
Why is there more interest in controlling the temperature vs the pollution itself?
consumerism needs to change for temperature to change
"Extinction event" narratives are not grounded in reality or backed by the science.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathway...
What will you do to drive change?
It should be kept in mind, these new temperatures measured now are not breaking records compared to the temperatures measure 50 years ago, but rather to the modified and corrected temperatures of 50 years ago.
Here is a great little collection showing how the temperature records change over time.
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/alterations-to-climate-d...
I'm a bit older and have kids. They've positively impacted my life in ways I could not have imagined when I was younger. Having said that, the speed of climate change and what feels like a global political class that is incapable of taking meaningful action, I am very concerned for my kids' near future. I cannot imagine a life without them, but I do wonder whether they will suffer, or whether my grand kids will suffer due to climate change. And so I wonder whether the joy and fulfillment they bring me will be worth any suffering they will be forced to endure. I cannot successfully do this computation. I am left with a persistent concern that will not lift.
But then I think about people who had children during times of war and during famines. The urge to procreate is so amazingly strong.
By definition the adults who will tackle climate change have to be conceived by the adults who will suffer from it.
I can't speak for the women you know, but the women I know in their 20s-30s tell me they aren't thinking about children at all probably thanks to the empowerment of women of the last 100 years.
Over my life, I've heard all kinds of excuses for all people to not consider children until they are in their late 30s or 40s, then it's a rush. I did the same.
I'm not sure it's climate change.
I posit a different guideline: If having kids is something you feel is of vital importance to you personally and not because other people expect it from you, then by all means, try to find someone who feels the same way and have kids.
As a person who just had a child, I strongly recommend it so far. It is more challenging than most things I have done in my life, but also more rewarding. I am forced to be selfless in a way that I never have been before. And I know it’s annoying to hear people say these things, but they are true.
For those who don’t want children, of course that’s your choice. I just hope we don’t let fear ruin such a beautiful opportunity for those who would be parents and children.
I only agreed to have kids because I have a spouse who earns above average and I feel secure that we will be able procure resources and equip the kids well, but I think would have been just as happy if I had not had kids.
I feel like my default is no children, and that will only change if and only if I reach a level of wealth that I can feel very comfortable committing to the ~18 years of directly raising a new human, the 4+ years thereafter for continuing education, and all the costs associated with raising a well experienced and skilled human so they can have a chance at generating their own wealth.
However, I also think inheritance is mostly a curse on people who receive it, so if I had children, I would raise them with the explicit expectation that I will pay for their education, but will likely have a hard cutoff of financial help after a certain milestone or age. And they can expect 0 inheritance.
Cutting off financial help might result in them feeling stuck with their past choices, resulting in depression etc - I wouldn’t do that. Many successful entrepreneurs come from supportive households.
When my kids turn 18, we'll fight to the death in the backyard. If they win, they get my stuff. If they lose, I'll have some more & repeat the process. Don't think I'll be around long enough for a third go.
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The idea that it could be morally or ethically better to not have children feels like further in-depth thought out examining the specifics in attempt for a rational and non-emotional answer would yield a pretty strong "no". It is a vastly personal decision and I would encourage you to answer this for yourself personally and to try to look for the arguments of those who are saying the opposite of your close social friends (if they are saying "no", then look for people saying "yes", if they are saying "yes", look for people who are saying "no").
The arguments that come to my mind:
1. The world has always been filled with an amount of danger to offspring, this is not more existential than it has been in the past (though it's often hyperbolized to be).
2. There are vast amounts of anecdotal stories about children who were "almost not born" (failed abortion, doctors or parents said it would be too hard, etc.) because of a parents decision who ended up having a hugely beneficial and/or great life.
3. There is a stronger effort now than ever before on correcting climate change. There are more opportunities than there ever have to make a difference. Your child could be one of these people.
4. I have seen no science that an additional child or children is going to inherently negatively increase climate change, which means having a motivated parent to better the world has a huge potential upside for the climate and low downside.
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An additional side, I would use any of amount of logic of "should have a child" either. If you don't want a child, I do not think you should have a child. A child needs love and compassion from its parents.
People seem to think that "night is dark and full of terror" is a joke. Get used to it.
I personally want to have child, and probably would do when I met those two requirement, and probably the most problematic of them are one you also have: Finding a woman who wants that.
Having a child in a modern European country isn't the same as our parents or grandparents had. We have paid parental leave, decent health, nursery, and education services, a society where both parts of the couple can go to work, share home tasks, and care of their childs (independently of being a man or a woman) without having to give up on other things, and so on.
I find it very sad having 40 or more, wanting to have kids, but having conception problems due to your age. I don't if there are statistics about this, and I don't want to influence anyone with this, but from personal experiences, most of the people who decided to not have kids regret that decision, and not too much of those who had them does.
Yes. One of the reasons. A major one.
This might be an unpopular opinion, yet i dare anyone to show me a point in history when having less kids was a good idea and showed better results than letting people do as they fit (because forcing people to have kids is not something i endorse, yet it sadly happened, and also is a bad idea: Look at China: more kids through a boom, then they forced people to 1-2 kids, which created a massive vacuum and nowadays China is facing not-so-bright future due to this fact , their middle class also increased massively, and we know that this results in less natality).
Sadly the socio-economic structure we have today(i'm not talking capitalism vs communism, they're both the same in this aspect) kind of forces us to have more kids but for the wrong reasons.We decay as a society when we view human life as a resource for work force for corporations or getting X/Y done, when in the past the booms of increasing populations(think post 89', or 18th century, 2500BC, roman era,etc) were mostly done because the prospects of the future were bright, thus leading adults to having more kids.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/exxon-knew-about-...
https://generation180.org/the-absurd-truth-about-fossil-fuel...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/04/exxon-po...
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/jan/19/undercover-police...
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2021/10/steven-donziger-loretta-p...
https://generation180.org/the-absurd-truth-about-fossil-fuel...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/m...
Disclaimer: I have not read all of these specific sources; they are the result of quick searches. There are many other sources to choose from - if you have a nit to pick, I suggest DuckDuckGo.
Don’t try and weasel out of it.
The oceans are growing acidic, countless species are being lost forever. We could literally all die because of this.
Blaming me for my commercial air travel while Chevron can imprison a lawyer for fighting against them is beyond fallacy, and well past what I can describe in polite terms.
Do you have family in the oil biz or something? Why would you do this?
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_territory_tempe...
He and everything he touches can be safely ignored.
That's grift and theft.
Elaborating on your perspective on the situation, sharing how it's affected your behavior or though processes, or engaging others in discussion would have produced a more substantive contribution.
I am very sensitive to HN sliding into a 'Reddit, but for nerds' situation where facile comments dominate the conversation and the signal-to-noise ratio is unbearably low.
Looking at your other comments, in general you do a pretty good job of holding back the tide -- please don't take this as a general comment against you, but more as a signpost for others.
Where I live, a person has full discretion on who inherits their estate if they explicitly write their will. Your offspring and next of kin are the default inheritors, but can be excluded if you explicitly say so in your will.
https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Austria/Inheritan...
So I wasn’t right about the fixed part, it very much depends on whether there is a spouse to inherit it to.
I also understand that buildings in normally colder climates are optimised to keep warm so that if things get hotter in general they are not going to cope well so an AC may well be necessary at temperatures that in other regions would be considered relatively cool.
Keep in mind the sun goes down at around 11pm, so it doesn't really get cold outside until well past midnight. In my home, that means it can be 25C inside for hours after bedtime unless I use AC and keep the interior cold during the day.
One could get used to 25C I suppose, problem is it's just for a few weeks at a time, then it goes back down. So you never really get used to it.
[1]: https://www.yr.no/en/statistics/table/1-72837/Norway/Oslo/Os...
[2]: https://www.yr.no/en/statistics/table/1-72837/Norway/Oslo/Os...
So your choices are, put up with it, with potential health problems for older/infirm people, rebuild to suit the new normal, or add an AC which hopefully is running from renewables and not contributing to the problem.
There is no easy solution.
I'm in Brisbane, and our climate is starting to move from northern subtropical to tropical. Most of the older houses are built for heat, but they are not built to deal with cyclones and extreme summer storms. Most of the new houses are not even built for heat, being designs that are popular in Sydney and Melbourne. Actually considering Sydney and Melbourne can get some stinking hot summers they are not even really built for that. Upshot is that most new houses are unliveable without AC, and this is in a country that has always had extremes of heat.
And after we stop emmitting CO2, we can focus on artificial decarbonization. But I would rather invest in proven technology, like reforesting first.
There are at least 4 tipping points that could upend this. If the Gulf Stream fails, Europe will be much colder than it is now, for example. Rapid breakdown of ice shelfs could quickly raise sea levels.
“It won’t be bad because it has not yet” is thin.
The middle latitudes are set to be in large part unlivable. Just imagine the geopolitical and humanitarian impacts of hundreds of millions of refugees. Just imagine when a country that is the source of a water source decides they need it and more than others downstream and reroute it.
These are massively destabilizing types of things. And not far fetched.
Sea level rise is the least of it tbh.
Can you point me in the direction of some stuff that supports the likelihood of these scenarios? The middle latitudes being unlivable does seem extreme and unlikely to me, especially given the explanation in the article about how 85F was used as a threshold for unlivable by some studies.
Examples:
[1] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/rising-temperatures-dying-...
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/23/magazine/clim...
"Today 1% of the world is an unlivable hot zone, by 2070 it may be 19%"
Claims about world records in temperature can be extremely confusing. Many times, newly announced "record breaking temperatures" are actually lower than they have been recorded in the past. Here is one recent example:
https://retractionwatch.com/2021/08/16/will-the-real-hottest...
"As anyone who follows the climate news is aware, July 2021 was the hottest month on record for our torrid little orb, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with a combined temperature 1.67 degrees F higher than the 20th century average of 60.4 F. NOAA noted in a Friday press release that the previous record was set in July 2016, and tied in 2019 and 2020. But as Bill Frezza, a sharp-eyed reader of Retraction Watch noticed, the agency’s website tells a different story. This press release, dated Aug. 15, 2019, and still live on noaa.gov, proclaims July 2019 to be the hottest month on record for the planet."
The reason this occurs is that temperatures reported by governments are no longer actual recorded temperatures, but rather the output of models. These models significantly change the historical record, both absolute values and trends, in fact they continuously recalculate old temperature values. Climatology doesn't believe you can answer a question like "what was the temperature at weather station X, Y days in the past" because the answer depends on when you ask it. This isn't really a secret but it's also not well known. NOAA explained it like this:
"NOAAGlobalTempv5 is a reconstructed dataset, meaning that the entire period of record is recalculated each month with new data. Based on those new calculations, the new historical data can bring about updates to previously reported values."
Another example is here:
USA Today Jan 2022 https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/the-past-seven-... "Europe sweltered through its hottest summer ever recorded in 2021 and set an all-time temperature record in Sicily of nearly 120 degrees Fahrenheit."
Record = 120 degrees Farenheit.
New York Times 1925 https://www.nytimes.com/1935/06/23/archives/127degree-heat-i... "127 degree heat in Zarazoga, Spain"
So 120 degrees is not an "all time temperature record" and 2021 was not the "hottest summer ever recorded".
Try to remember, claims about the end of the world come and go. Our parents were being told the world would end due to mass starvation when population growth exhausted food supplies, a new ice age (global cooling) and of course the ever-present possibility of nuclear war. Humanity survived and if they'd taken the attitude you're talking about now, you wouldn't exist.
Or even just retired physically able grandparents a few doors down who can help serve as a redundancy.
You're tired, at work, and not part of their day-to-day life. It'd almost be easier to be 20 and have mom/dad still around and just start career at 35. Hell, I practically started my career at 35 and have nothing to show for the delay!
What exactly do you think happens? Runaway greenhouse effect? People just start baking to death in the street? It's senseless. Climate change causes negative effects, but it's much more complicated than that. You should do some reading.
Very well protected with mountains on one side (but far enough to avoid the major floods or mud slides). Some rivers in the city do flood, but stick to the higher-placed properties and you'll be fine. Some exposure to forest fire smoke, but only smoke, the land around is generally farmland or ranching, and well protected from catching fire. Great self-reliance for food and energy.
Problems: generally just the Canada-wide ones (e.g. healthcare system has collapsed but they haven't noticed, Ottawa largely doesn't care about the West, economy is 50% real estate, immigration is 95% of population growth and has resulted in a very exploitative and corrupt system that lures in young people to be poorly-paid expendable labour under the guise of Canadian Permanent Resident through exorbitantly expensive but low-quality education). Locally, Calgary leans very left (NDP, the Left-most party in Canada), but this balances well with the Conservative provincial government.
That mirrors what Canadians have told me. There's little interest in innovation and building tech when the simplest way to make money is simply housing.
The CSeries comes to mind, it was almost ready and had orders for years, then the Trump admin slapped tariffs on it and Trudeau did basically nothing. All it needed was a little capital injection while waiting for the courts to declare the tariffs illegal and remove them. Instead, Airbus bought it for virtually nothing.
As someone in tech, it's scary to see how little support such an innovative plane got from the government. This would never happen here with Boeing (just look at the 737 MAX) or in Europe with Airbus. And the A220 (the rebranded name) is making a fortune for European investors right now.
> immigration is 95% of population growth and has resulted in a very exploitative and corrupt system that lures in young people to be poorly-paid expendable labour under the guise of Canadian Permanent Resident
The point of immigration is to fill a shortage. That's why here there are rules regarding salary requirements for immigration purposes. If a job isn't paying a lot, it's because it's not in demand; why then bring-in more people to an already saturated market? What’s the logic here?
If you think I should protest, I do. And, I've pointed out exactly how protestors are dealt with: minimized, attacked, infiltrated, smeared, ignored, and so on.
Every year, hundreds of environmental protectors are murdered. So what exactly is your suggested course of action here?