Why is it hard to buy things that work well?(danluu.com) |
Why is it hard to buy things that work well?(danluu.com) |
People learn to optimize for less anger over being cheated: it doesn't work well, but you didn't pay much. If you had paid more, you would (probably) be equally dissatisfied, but also feel like you got suckered.
Edit: why downvote?
Inexpensive and having a snazzy name are pretty much the only properties that products have that you can reliably compare.
The Yossi Kreinin link in the article suggests developing a reputation first. Any other approaches?
First, pick your battles. You can't fight every one at the same time.
Second, DOCs and Email are your friend. Don't bother with Slack/Teams. If you came from an important meeting, reply to everyone who attended the meeting and CC and BCC people, and write your version of meeting notes and focus on what was agreed upon and what questions remained unresolved. After several emails like, this copy/paste them into a Word document that you save. I have shut down the worst offenders by simply re-sending the same email I sent six months ago.
Third, be prepared for the blowback. I got screamed/yelled at/for days by executives. Eventually the truth will come out. But it might take years.
But, considering the developers aren't going to charge their ways, I'll remain grateful that there are people who do want to buy the "new" houses (they won't stay new for long, they'll be wrecked after a few years of being lived in) at a premium rather than compete for livable housing.
[1] https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-10... but if you've ever been in one, you'll know what I mean.
One of the reasons that it has taken this long, is because I am totally anal about Quality. Constant stopping to fix bugs, or even refactor out bad design decisions.
I've found that doesn't always make me popular.
[EDITED TO ADD] See what I mean? Advocating for high Quality work is not received well. I've learned to keep it totally to my own work, and even that is often perceived as an attack.
Pretty crazy.
So yeah, Silicon Valley undercuts itself on talent, quality, ethics, equity and the like and always has.
That's why marketing beats product quality. Liars can win as long as there are enough gullible people, and as long the government doesn't enact laws to protect the public's interest.
There is no way to improve product quality other by regulations. The "invisible hand of the market" was misinterpreted.
You can win in any competition if the rules don't prevent bad faith players.
Libertarians and other silicon valley start up bros will downvote me.
It's really a list of psychopathologies, misunderstandings, erroneous thinking and gotchas that lead to poor quality. Among them are economic fallacies, biases, abusive power relations, cultural malaise, and FOMO.
In the end I think what the author is saying boils down to Sturgeons Law, that 99% of everything is rubbish and that it's our fault. We get the quality we deserve, because we are lazy, entitled and much more stupid than we think we are. Such is the nature of mass culture and everything else is an outlier.
See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_in_the_White_Suit
We have plenty of "indestructible" tools today. Cast Iron skillets, hammers, screwdrivers, wrenches, ladders. Most furniture qualifies as well (though MDF-board crap exists, they still have a use. Its more efficient for a college-student to get disposable MDF-based crap for their dorms with a lifespan of ~4 years or less, rather than buy actually quality furniture).
These are called the "durable goods market", and plenty of them can be bought and work for years, decades even.
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Everything wears out given enough time. But my roof is expected to last 50 years and has a wind rating far in excess of any 50-year storm in my area (Florida roofs are famously shingled with the cheapest crap, because hurricanes hit them so often it doesn't make sense to invest into the roof... no roof can possibly survive a Cat3, Cat4, or Cat5 storm).
Because my area doesn't have tornadoes or hurricanes (at least, no notable ones in the past century), it makes sense for me to invest into my roof.
Yeah, because corporations/people wouldn't conspire to limit say life of lightbulbs or reduce competition, right? Right?! Right?!
Just because something is a comedy doesn't mean someone in real world didn't do it/ is doing it/ won't do it.
> A prince who is not wise can never get good counsel, unless he puts himself completely in the hands of a wise man; but such a man will soon take over his state.
What do you do? Become expert at everything? Form a coalition of experts, who share their assessments? Or... somehow... acquire the ability to assess "expertise" in general, regardless of specific field?
0/10 web design, didn't read.
Didn't press F9 for reading mode.
Didn't resize browser window to comfortable proportions.
0/10 online media consumption skills, didn't deserve to read.
The efficient market hypothesis seems like a perfect example of this over-reliance on assuming paper-thin idealised models actually reflect reality.
Asks someone that posts a giant wall of unreadable text.
Just so happens that modern user agents don't really care about bare HTML, just CSS and JavaScript, so your default presentation is optimized to 1990s hardware at 800x600.
I guess "reader mode" is slang for "what the user-agent should be doing to make documents reasonable for modern displays", so press that button in your user-agent.
What did you think of the content of what they said?
I'm surprised how much I've gotten used to fancy websites, colors and formatting.
I'm more dismayed.
What? I expect people to put a little effort into what they are trying to comminicate - I know I try to. Not always succeeding, obviously
Typesetting matters.
[Ctrl]-[+]|:
> If I shrink the browser width considerably (to a minimum width) then the text does look good
Pro tip: So do that, then.
> Typesetting matters.
WTF is this, Hacker News or Artsy-Fartsy Designer News? (Lawn, off, etc.)
For what it's worth, their Patreon nets over 3000 / month, so quite a few people think they put in just the right amount of effort, or even above and beyond :)
When doing roofing the experienced guys would have three or four hammers of various types and switch between them as necessary. Me? I couldn’t tell the difference.
But these are rare (one of the few I know of is Speed Queen but I suspect there are others in other industries, mainly commercial/industrial products).
Amusingly enough these work best when innovation is basically dead, so that a new one and a twenty year old one is basically the same.
There are a multitude of reasons, companies no longer make products to last. Watch videos where they dissect products, you'll find machines are designed to fail after a certain amount of time. Motors that only contain a certain amount of oil and cannot be serviced.
Basically, it works better a year at a time.
Do need to replace the fans and maybe PSU though.
Particle board furniture is annoying. You scuff off the veneer, and the item is essentially ruined. Wood is "self healing" in the sense that scratching it exposes more wood, so it doesn't look as terrible.
Personally, I've found software to be the worst thing about modern devices. A long time ago, I bought a terrible Tiertime 3D printer. It doesn't accept gcode from the computer, so you have to slice models using their proprietary app, and it's absolutely horrible. Requires registration before use, doesn't work at all. I used it once, was disgusted with the software (being unable to slice a model more complicated than a cube), and put the thing in the box with the goal to return it. For various reasons that never happened. Three years later, I decided I was tired of looking at the box and can always use another 3D printer, so I did a "brain transplant". I replaced their proprietary logic board with an open source one (Duet 3 Mini 5+). Now the printer works great. (Before the project was done and I was getting my bearings on the internals, I was appalled at the shortcuts they took. Sheet metal instead of extrusions. Heated bed connected to the power supply with flatflex cable, hotend connected with a ribbon cable, 19V power supply instead of 24V just for a tiny bit of extra savings on inductors. But honestly, the design is fine, it was just their software that made it unusable. I learned a lot about cost reduction by taking that thing apart, and I'm impressed how good of a job they did making it cheap without actually making it work badly. The ABS enclosure is also top notch, some of the best injection molding I've ever seen on a $300 product. No way you could make something that good yourself for the price of the whole machine.)
I've also had some good repair experience on modern, cheap, made-in-China electronics. I have a Siglent oscilloscope, and one day, one of the knobs locked up. I resigned myself to just never using that channel again, but on a 2 channel oscilloscope there aren't really channels to spare. Knowing I wasn't going to find $10,000 laying around for a proper instrument that would have good encoders, I begrudgingly opened it up. Everything was held together with screws, and I had the front I/O board out in a half hour. Desoldered the broken encoder, soldered on a random encoder from my parts bin, put everything back together, and ... perfectly working oscilloscope. It wasn't unrepairable, it was merely uneconomical to repair. If I was writing software instead of repairing the 'scope, I could have just bought a new one. But it was some Saturday night at 3AM when I was too tired to do anything except watch crappy YouTube videos, which nobody will pay me hundreds of dollars to do. So it ended up being quite economical.
I forgot where I was going with this, but basically if you can open something up, today's manufacturing is as good as any manufacturing in the past. Someone that wants to repair or mod, can. (Until you run into glue. Oh how I hate glue.)
> For example, in my social circles, there have been two waves of people migrating from iPhones to Android phones over the past few years. Both waves happened due to Apple PR snafus which caused a lot of people to think that iPhones were terrible at something when, in fact, they were better at that thing than Android phones.
I wonder what Apple PR snafus is that?
>Amazon eventually solved this problem by having their own delivery people (and Apple has done this as well for same-day delivery)
Apple employs they own people for delivery ? That is news to me. And I cant seems to find anything on Google to confirm this.
Otherwise the article sums up, The world is largely run by Pepla, people who cant tell the difference between Pepsi and Coca Cola. And the Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
I suspect this is it
https://www.apple.com/child-safety/
Which it seems they abandoned or paused
https://www.macworld.com/article/559731/apple-csam-icloud-ph...
Imagine what Russia would do with CSAM now.
He mentions a small chip startup he worked at for these examples, but I couldn't find it anywhere. Did those companies beat out their competitors and win their market?
Seems like his point is that "We did this optimally and competitors didn't even though you'd expect them to", but if that company didn't end up being the best one it's not really proving the overall point
I would argue Apple is an example of a company that started with quality, established brand, and has been coasting off brand for a long while.
If buying and selling were a chess game, the ELO of the consumers would be very low, but the producers ELO is not much better, as they just learned a tricky opener and nothing else. Of course the real game is not two player and open information, but this only makes it worse for the consumer, and easier to fall into marketing schemes for the producer.
I think it's only needs a really small amount of css i.e. some padding/margins a slight change in the background colour and some better spacing that's all probably. Five minutes worth of work and would add virtually nothing to the page weight.
I suspect whomever Dan Luu is they don't really give a f about my opinion so I'll stop now.
Ant colonies are hugely successful yet estimates are only about 1/3 of workers actually work. There is no 'ant-police' there is no 'don't work no food', this is just the way that it ends up.
In human situations I can count from experience being one of that 1/3 that work a lot even out of hours or when left un-monitored I know I'm in a minority because I'll throw up an experimental full stack deployment in a week with new toys/tooling/features and run into meetings to listen to someone winge about having difficulty in deploying a new ssl cert on an nginx box entirely because the instructions are only 3-4 months out of date.
This used to drive me nuts but I've come to accept humans at scale are mote like ants. This even applies to the good ones. They're normally only working 1/3 of their time, hence why project management needs to more accurately account for this rather than thinking they can encourage the average person to be the super-geek who has fun turning on the light using https-over-dns-over-shoe-string one weekend because they simply wondered if they can.
People unfortunately then take this as an insult that I'm comparing to them as ants.
My response is, if you understand this correctly you've identified you're a normal rounded human being, congrats, enjoy this and go contribute to society in the way that makes you special.
If you are insulted that I've identified you're working 1/3 of your time, either a) you're striving to be a super-nerd when you're not, please consider changing, this isn't healthy for you, or b) you are actually one of these super-worker people and get annoyed at the rest of the system like me, try moving into a career where you enjoy your work rather than trying to be the next millionaire, unless you love working in the markets, in which case, go for it and have fun :)
Admittedly 1) not everyone can afford something pricier, and 2) higher cost doesn't always mean better quality. On top of that, if manufacturers made things that lasted forever, they'd go out of business quickly. Who'd buy a replacement, or something newer, if item X is still going strong after 10 years or more?
If you have a lesser product, marketing rolls out FUD to combat competitors and then it doesn't matter if you have a better mousetrap, no-one will believe it
For example most 5-star products on Amazon got that way because they often secretly give out tons of free product (or even cash) for positive reviews. Amazon and bot analysis can't tell a real human written review was secretly paid for. Noise "wins".
Information also decays. Yesterday's best burger in town may not be today's.
EMH is basically wrong. Like the pre-relativity concept of absolute time and space, it sounds like it should be right under certain conditions, but unlike the physical analogy we live in the inefficient information world mostly.
> For example, we tried "buy" instead of "build" for a product that syncs data from Postgres to Snowflake. ... Despite being widely recommended and the leading product in the space, the product has a number of major design flaws that mean that it literally cannot work.
This is nearly always my experience with buying software, especially software I know I can write myself. I always run into massive pushback if I propose writing such software. It comes across as too risky -- what if I get bored, what if it's actually too hard and I can't do it, etc. What people never think about are the benefits; full knowledge and control over the process.
I have bought so much software and it's made me sad every time. You're always promised the world before you sign the contract, and then you sign it and none of the things that were supposed to work work. Support tickets take days to be resolved; passed around like hot potatoes. In the time it took to get someone to reply to my email, I could have just written it myself.
Many years ago I was looking at Istio. I wanted some enhanced Kubernetes ingress support, and Istio checked the checkboxes; what I needed now, and room to grow. But it sure had a lot of detractors on the Internet, and a ton of alarming-sounding open bugs. I thought about rewriting the parts I needed from scratch, and went to see what parts of their code I could steal.
I looked at the core XDS implementation, and it was completely wrong. It didn't implement the protocol correctly at all, conveniently swallowing crucial errors that probably explain most of the filed bugs.
So, I decided to write my own version and a few days + 2000 lines of code later, I had the parts I needed and they worked perfectly. I didn't have to scrutinize the docs, I didn't have to file 30 bugs. I just typed in some code, deployed it to production, and ... it's never bothered me since. It was risky, but it worked out better; I can explain the entire system to anyone with a question and I can add whatever features I want. It was way better than buying. (I'm equally happy with the two version of a single signon system I wrote. It works exactly how I want it to work, and costs $0 month for an Enterprise contract. Savings!)
There are counterexamples, of course. Once upon a time, I needed to learn CAD. Instead of writing my own software, I just bought Fusion 360. I didn't know anything about CAD at the time, so there is no way I could have built something better. (I probably could have implemented the "don't crash for no reason" functionality that eludes their developers, but wouldn't have even known to implement sketches or geometric constraints. They just know the domain so much better than me, there is no way in the world I could ever have made something better.)
> Since then, many people have changed their opinion to "having ever locked down was stupid, we were always going to end up with endemic covid, all of this economic damage was pointless".
This happens all the time, not just with pandemic restrictions. The pattern is that people want to cure X, and suggest remedy Y. People try remedy Y for a while, get bored, and then declare remedy Y a sham. It's universal across fields; "I tried running but didn't lose weight", "We tried writing more tests but it didn't increase reliability", "We tried sheltering in place but the disease didn't die", "I took antibiotics for a few days but the strep throat came back". The problem is not that remedy Y is ineffective (though it certainly can be, that's where this heuristic comes from), but that it wasn't used for long enough. I think changing habits is one of the hardest things humans can do, so we are quick to declare defeat when success can only be measured over a long period of time.
> You could imagine services would, like Amazon, request a photo along with "proof of delivery" or perhaps use GPS to check that the driver was plausibly at least in the same neighborhood as the building at the time of delivery, but they generally don't seem to do that?
Amazon does this sporadically. Sometimes I get photos, sometimes I don't.
If your team is very good, i.e. on one end of the distribution, most products will be made by teams that are average, i.e. not that good. In that case it is easy to notice flaws.
If you are smart and knowledgeable enough so that you could design/create/implement the products you use easily, you will see room for improvements.
1. Inability for the buyer to assess quality:
1.1 Lack of buyers' expertise (tfa goes into this a lot)
1.2 Long timescale to assess quality:
that is, a lot of types of 'poor quality' aren't apparent until long after the sale; so even if you polled every buyer once a week, if sales were growing, the unhappy poll results due to poor quality would be overshadowed by the happy poll results from new buyers 1.3 Dishonest reviews:
even if buyers are able to assess quality after the fact, it's hard for old buyers to communicate this to potential buyers due to honest reviews being buried in dishonest reviews2. Peter principal (experts are promoted, so at any one time most of the people doing a job haven't achieved mastery):
This is especially a problem for services, where someone who has achieved mastery at providing the service can make more money by becoming a manager. For example, in business consulting or in construction, often there is a person with a lot of experience at the top but the people actually doing the work don't have a lot of experience.
3. Market won't pay for quality:
Even if buyers can tell that one product/service is of higher quality than another, often they would choose the cheaper one over the high quality one, either because the product/service at issue just isn't that important to them relative to the money they could save, or because they have a hard budgetary constraint and they are forced to compromise somewhere.
4. Cultural factors: Some people report that, for example, quality in the U.S. seems to tend to be worse than quality in Germany or Japan. If this is real, i don't know what it is specifically about US/German/Japanese culture (or workplace culture/structure) that causes this.
There was a story[1] about a guy who kept the same heating boiler for nearly 50 years. Can you imagine how much more he spent on fuel in that thing for 50 years compared to changing to a combi at some point? Condensing boilers are 90+% efficient, who knows what that is.
2) Most OSes nowadays have resizable windows. Drag the borders of your browser window in from the edges of your screen.
3) One of the few advantages of reading HN (and therefore the sites it links to) on a phone.
Well, that's partially the fault of Amazon for paying absolute shit on parcel contracts that literally cannot support a parcel business. When the incentive for the parcel delivery service is to mark a package as delivered to get money from Amazon and at the same time hold the packages for one to three days to group them by recipient, of course this is what will result!
That's not the efficient market hypothesis but a complete misunderstanding. The hypothesis is that the market (not products as you assume) are efficient, leading to the optimization of share prices to reflect reality. [1]
[1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/efficientmarkethypothes...
Absolutely hit the nail on the head. Advertising distorts the market, meaning what would be a good idea in theory becomes a completely different thing in practice.
Surely it's also a legal distinction? In Australia at least, I believe there can be significant jail time given for breaking and entering.
COVID lock down/shelter in place orders were never intended to avoid endemic disease altogether. They were about slowing down its spread just enough that the healthcare system would remain functional while the disease became endemic. And they mostly worked OK for that.
It was the public health equivalent of "take two asprin and call in the morning". While there were successes for sure, clear and consistent communication was not among them.
But most enterprise software is plumbing - that you figure out how to use “well enough” and mostly leave it alone to do its thing. That software has little pressure and often ends up being basically bypassed.
What fails on them?
It did work reasonably well, but if you failed to clean it and fully dry it out within 6 hours of using it, it would get an INSANE mildew smell.
Amazon of course didn't bother to do anything about the company when I tried to report them, and they seem to have disappeared/rebranded since then
Technology Connections had a good video on the quality of humidifiers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHeehYYgl28
1. Electronically (ex: you can do this in your bedroom directly, or anywhere you need the warm-mist)
2. With safety measures (its still dangerous, but they minimize the amount of boiling water to minimize the possible harm. Better than an entire pot of boiling water, but still half-a-cup of boiling water can severely burn you still)
3. Probably as cheap as the pot you were using to boil water anyway. Warm mist humidifiers are like $35.
If you have an electric stove, boiling water will be less efficient than evaporating water and letting your heating system make up for the loss in sensible heat unless you have an electric furnace.
My guess is water is getting trapped somewhere in the device's Chinesium crevices, or maybe they found a way to make plastic cheaper by making it susceptible to mold.
This paragraph from the article reminds me of the recent HN discussion about resilience. In this particular example idling 99% of the time is cheaper, but even if idling 99% of the time is slightly expensive, it might still be a good idea not to outsource due to resilience. What if the vendor goes bankrupt? What if the vendor's vendor is unable to perform their contractual duty due to a disease outbreak? Or a geopolitical risk? You avoid these risks if everything is in-house, so these risks need to be priced in when determining whether to outsource. But more often than not, these risks are priced at exactly zero.
There are good answers to these problems, but I find folks who find comfort in outsourcing assume it's easier for the downstream org solve them.
Personal experience suggests it's often a false sense of security, and you often have to have your own experts anyway.
Saw the same in software. We won't get budget to patch so let's outsource. The outsourced entity also doesn't patch, because there's no business case approval to do so. The problem is usually tech is ran by finance.
Your wafer saw (or server) that is utilized 1% of the time is going to need a lot less maintenance than a shared wafer saw that is used 16 hours a day. You will actually experience a lot less downtime by investing in your own wafer saw (or your own servers) rather than outsourcing (to a foundry or a cloud provider).
I think the real draw of outsourcing is diffusion of responsibility: when it breaks, you can blame someone else.
IMHO a lot of outsourcing decisions are based on the idea that someone else can do it better than we can. This is demoralizing and will eventually become a self-fulfilling prophecy as the most competent people get frustrated and leave. I suspect it may also be projection from managers that are in over their head or don't understand what their own people are saying. And then of course there are times when it's true that someone else can do it better.
+1 on this
IME the most successful outsourcing arrangements revolve around scale of work, not substituting an entire department. Keeping the amount of in-house experts lean and having them manage outsourced resources. So it is more of a tool for someone internal who has the needs organized rather than a dependency on a 3rd party to know what is best for you
Then you go and fix that as you have the means to do that.
Were it outsourced and you can only wait for the vendor to do it
Same. Where actually, the budget is right there, it's just a matter of choice and priorities: do what's right now or invest 10x in it later because you didn't take care of it when you ought to.
I've been on both sides of the argument: "budget" is a magic word for those who want to skip responsibility for their choices.
This is true in process scaling no matter the process.
Or in some cases it might make sense to become an outsourcing destination. Your otherwise idle equipment & skills become a revenue stream rather than a cost when your need it low, your local equipment and skills are tested & re-enforced which reduces the risk of finding them unexpectedly wanting when you turn to them in those 1% times, and you might end up with a small controlling advantage in your market (you get priority over any competitors that outsource to that part of you). It could become a significant arm of your business & profit. Think Amazon farming out its network resources.
These are all things that most people never notice because they just work. It doesn't even occur to people day-to-day that these things can fail.
There is not really a strong need to go into why inefficiencies can persist, etc, because at a baseline, it turns out there is no provable theory that markets should be efficient at all.
Instead, we have the sort of equivalent of Galileo - people really badly want markets to be efficient. They feel like they should be, because intuitively, it seems like it should work that way (much in the "god does not play dice" sense). People who suggest they aren't, even when math backs them up, are ridiculed. Eventually, as Max Planck said, science will advance funeral by funeral, and we'll stop pretending markets should be efficient based on "the efficient market hypothesis". Or we'll discover P=NP! Which would be much cooler.
To get concrete, we submitted an application for an apartment let. After not hearing back for 4 days we reached out and it looks like somehow they misplaced our application. By then the unit we wanted was gone so they asked us to pay a holding fee to ensure they would keep another unit for us. The online system simply didn't work, so we reached out and they informed us it was fix. But the system just marked the unit as rented rather than reserved, so we had to reach out again...
As Dan says defendants of the efficient market hypothesis will say that it isn't possible to provide a better service, or otherwise this letting agency would have been upended by competitors. Only that our experience with other agencies has been similarly poor, and our experience abroad is generally less so.
And is not only renting, most of our interactions here have been similarly shoddy. Which makes me think that either we have been incredibly unlucky or there is some common pattern. Here are some ideas for our particular case:
* Barrier to entry: Businesses like real estate require large capital and tend to be crowded already, so it is difficult for a disruptor to appear.
* Liquidity: While in theory we could *shop around* if we don't like a let agent, in practice there is a very reduced number of units that satisfy our requirements. It's easier to put up with a poor experience that compromise on the property.
* Corner cases: As new immigrants we had to go through some processes that most people don't experience. Probably is not worth for companies to optimize for these situations.
* Cultural normalization?: This is the most intriguing point for me. Maybe this level of shoddy service has been normalized and accepted in America - or at least the area we live in. Maybe people just don't know better and hence don't ask for more, and therefore companies can carry on providing what would be considered a sub-par service elsewhere.
I will note that I often wish Dan Luu was a bit less apparently-uniformly-confident in some of the statements he writes. He does back up what he says, but he'll use the same tone for something he's seen anecdotally and something he's spent a month personally investigating.
Reminds me of the old joke -- an Economist walks past a $100 bill on the sidewalk, but doesn't bother to pick it up. He turns to his friend and declares smugly: "If it were real, someone would have taken it already."
Take a chair, for example. Anyone can make a chair: just get a bucket, turn it over, and sit on it. Boom; backless chair. Want a backrest, arms? Get a 2x4, a saw, a drill, and some bolts. An hour later: Boom; chair.
You want a chair that works well? How do you even define works well for a chair? Do you need cushioning? Do you need to swivel? Do you need ergonomics? Do you need to sit in it for 15 hours? Do you need it to cost less than $1,000?
I would like to favor places with more women in tech jobs, but generally just don't find any at all, anywhere. Everywhere I have worked they were always trying to hire more women but never got any applicants, or couldn't hire the ones they found.
And there are so many MtFs in tech. I'd love to see statistics, but it feels skewed.
This is one of those things I Can't Say in most places, but (unless you transitioned in elementary school) the MtF experience in tech and the cis female experience are totally different, and they (the MtFs) know it, because so much of our work is done online where you can be whatever gender/sex you want. I know how people reacted to me when they thought I was male vs. female.
Age plays into it, too. Everything was fine before I went through puberty, but a lot of young techie men have a really hard time with their sexuality and take that out on their female colleagues in various ways. (I've also seen some gross reversals in female-dominated professions re: issues with men, so...) Now that I'm in my 30s and the men in that insecure/figuring things out age range aren't interested, it's better again.
I have a feeling this guy doesn't know what he's talking about when it comes to COVID. From Wikipedia: "No lockdowns have been imposed in Taiwan". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Asia
And there's a huge difference between quarantining a small island and quarantining a large country whose leaders purposely don't enforce the borders and actually allowed in people who tested positive for COVID with no enforced quarantining: https://news.yahoo.com/dhs-dropped-40-000-covid-190800213.ht...
You can also read in Wikipedia how the lockdowns in Vietnam ultimately failed, while also heavily disrupting their economy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Vietnam.
The people who said lockdowns would be pointless were right. History has proven it. It's time for people like Dan Luu to move on. There was never any way the world at large was going to be able to organize a meaningful lockdown policy. The lockdowns were a waste and likely caused more deaths than they saved lives.
If you chop a 10 huge trees down in a forest, an economist would tell you "There should be 10 300-year old trees here". That may be true in 300 years, but the procession of species in the 300-year interim will be much more interesting, and understanding that tells you much more about ecology than knowing the eventual result. And the forest may not last 300 years before conditions change so significantly that it invalidates the prediction.
Similarly, the efficient markets hypothesis really breaks down in the modern era, because market conditions don't ever experience an unperturbed steady state. Technology, politics, availability of expertise, and shifting social norms rearrange the foundations more frequently so equilibrium is never reached.
Any long-term theoretical predictions on quality or efficiency of CRT monitors or horseshoes or fondue pots converging to an efficient ideal state were nonsensical and doomed from the start: the market conditions around them changed faster than the market is able to adapt.
I’ve thought about this question very often, and I think the answer does come back to the market efficiency argument that Dan ridicules at the beginning. I think in many cases, what the market provides is actually about as good as what the market can sustain.
Sure, most products have obvious flaws, and maybe you could fix them. But could you build a successful company solely on the basis of addressing those flaws? Sometimes, yes. Some products do get displaced by better alternatives. But can you expect that process to happen reliably, for all types of products, at all times? When you put it that way, I think it seems silly to expect the answer would be yes.
Just to get caught by that line in the culture part:
> If you read these kinds of discussions, you'll often see people claiming "that's just how the world is" and going further and saying that there is no other way the world could be, so anyone who isn't prepared for that is an idiot.
I'll defend my own claim as not trying to put the blame on the victim, it's nobody's fault most of the time, and we get to see some progress, sometimes. People should enjoy the stuff that actually work and praise those who make real efforts to make it less broken.
It's funny, I have actually observed the phenomenon he described in the same company. Safeway in San Francisco either uses their own delivery drivers, or they subcontract to DoorDash depending on the time of day of delivery. If I order with Safeway delivery drivers, they will happily deliver all the way to my apartment door inside the building. If I get a DoorDash driver, the intercom will magically be broken 100% of the time. It's a perfect comparison.
Must be a generational thing but I don't think anyone i know (ie under 30) genuinely believes this anymore.
Project Farm (youtube.com/projectfarm) - Great independent reviews of tools
Mcmaster.com - Higher quality products than you can get at your local hardware store and excellent customer service. When I've gotten the rare incorrect or damaged item, 1 email gets me a refund and a replacement overnighted.
Wirecutter - Not as go-to as it used to be in my mind, but great for background
ConsumerReports - Check if you can get free access through your local library website
ReviewMeta (reviewmeta.com) - Analyzes Amazon reviews for authenticity
All of these have problems but they are still good resources. Any others I'm missing?
Is this a very nice way of saying that you can hire women economists and underpay them in order to make money?
Because they were women?
I wouldn't call Twitter or any other unicorn a "mid-sized tech company".
I believe the larger a company is the more it makes sense to do stuff in-house. You need a certain amount of people to focus on your core competencies, but once you have that and still have more money than you can ever spend, it makes sense to spend it on doing stuff in-house, as that might lead to better quality and/or lower costs and removes the risk that an external supplier might not be there next month anymore.
I guess that depends on the definition of mid sized company. I don't know if there is a fundamentally different/better definition, but Gartner defines a mid sized company to have up to 999 employees and $1 billion of annual revenue [1]. Twitter has way more employees and revenue than that.
[1]: https://www.gartner.com/en/information-technology/glossary/s...
In practice, all it took was a dude called Dane Jasper deciding that the barriers were mostly regulatory and he could beat it and boom! Sonic covers so much of the city in $60/mo symmetric fiber. I think people will still explain why it's impossible in SF.
Occasionally, and I am saddened that I haven't bookmarked these for later amusement, someone will ask "Why can't we do X here?" and people will come up with an explanation for why X would never work in America, etc. while I'll be sitting experiencing X here.
Perhaps that's the thing. Human beings have a very natural status quo bias and we have a very quick explain-why-this-is bias. So if you tell someone that Y is the case, they can come up with a posteriori explanations. But that's why good science is hard: you have to make a priori claims and then subject to hypothesis testing. And in normal conversation that is really hard.
I don't claim to be immune to this. But knowing it is a flaw is a better position than not knowing, I hope.
It often is impossible to get past the regulatory burdens in SF, although sometimes it's just because the supervisors ask you for bribes.
Re: professional services ... I think there is some kind of sweet spot where professionals stop focusing on delivering a good service and start focusing on their brand. Also, some people realize they are not actually a very good accountant/developer/lawyer and focus almost entirely on their brand. Trying to discern if your potential professional is one of those two types of professionals is the hardest part.
One could write an entire series of posts on the topic of situations you would not have avoided.
> There's a vague plausibility to that kind of statement, which is why it's a debate I've often heard come up in casual conversation, where one person will point out some obvious company inefficiency or product error and someone else will respond that, if it's so obvious, someone at the company would have fixed the issue or another company would've come along and won based on being more efficient or better.
---
This sounds like the question whether the market mechanism that ought to remove grave inefficiencies is actually working because there appear to be many examples where it looks like it's not.
My explanation for why the market actually works and we can _still_ see those inefficiencies:
Complexity.
The reason why - even though the mechanism of the market making efficiency a necessity (to not be replaced) is working correctly - we often see inefficiency, is that a complex world enables niches for inefficient unnecessary complexities to exist, where they can consume resources without being easy to remove.
The more complex the environment, the higher the number of possible/existing additional overhead and inefficiencies.
It stands to reason that he and the people he interacts with are going to build things of higher quality than whatever is commonly available.
Wow, imagine that radical concept--a society that functions well without government goons breathing down everyone's neck! Maybe we could even come up with a word to describe this amazing new idea. "Freedom" maybe? "Liberty"?
Enjoy your slavery, serf.
Taking the example of grocery store logistics, the number of times products are unavailable in my local store makes me thing that's a thing that doesn't "just work". It's something that breaks down regularly, and possibly has lots of people working hard to keep it from breaking even more often.
The same is true for lots of things. Stuff like water delivery and silicon manufacturing doesn't break all the time because lots of people are fighting to make it work, and are actively maintaining it all the time.
I think it's possible that most things don't "just work", and we're just fortunate that there are teams of people out there stopping us seeing the effects of all the failures.
> And it also pretty much sums up how most people in Tech have minimal understanding of Supply Chains and logistics works. Even distribution alone, within a single country ( ignoring the cross border logistics ) is complex enough.
Let me tell you supply chain and product availability in store ( especially grocery ) is still an unsolved problem. For a lot of different reasons and market dynamics. But mostly because grocery stores also have their own brand which compete with other products, and sharing sales data for better forecast is still a big no no. Compare to let say Smartphone, your average retail store will have zero chance completing with Apple or Samsung. So every time an iPhone is sold Apple knew instantly and can better manage their supply chain. Both domestic and international.
If we didn't had COVID and Chip Shortage, most of the world still doesn't give any credit or importance to Supply Chain management. Even though it is the basic fabric of our society. And that is speaking with experience working with Fortune Global 500.
For some of these foundations to still be standing and building occupants not to notice anything's wrong ... I can't even imagine how much safety factor is built-in. If we built software with those margins, nothing would ever ship.
Here's a few: https://imgur.com/gallery/Ko2jo4j
https://imgur.com/gallery/fD4jCdc
https://imgur.com/gallery/0JyOXy0
Sometimes they share pictures of foundations completely detached from anything. And it keeps working!
These things did cost a lot to develop, but for the consumer it’s quite inexpensive. As GP said, we just take these things for granted and don’t notice them.
The easy industrial design exercise seems to be luxurious looking materials paired with cheap electronics. Amazon is full of this. Oddly, the thing I end up trusting these days are in-house brands because the store has some responsibility to make sure their own brand's reputation doesn't get too tarnished.
The issue is then not just with the item, but with societies that are increasingly accepting low quality: this is a horrible trend, and one side of decadence. You get both, flanked: low quality here for the occasion and decadence around for the trend.
The idea you say of some "distracted" ones "not realizing the failure potential" has a legitimate justification, beyond the simple inattentive, in those (inexperienced) that assume, for a number of reasons (especially including an internal healthy "mindset" of good standards), things are done properly. There is a line in a script for Scorsese that goes like: «I'm the guy doing my job, you must be the other one».
At workplaces this creates a lot of absurd situations that eat up insane amounts of productivity.
Or another example, it's pretty common that water pipes don't work as expected. (Congestion, low pressure, undesired backflow, tricky to get water at body temperature...) Nobody really complains, everybody lives with it and learns to completely ignore it. I'm not saying these problems occur everywhere 100% of the time but often enough to show there's something structurally not working
Really? I've not seen this to be the case unless they are never maintained (ie: a year goes by and ignored dependencies change)
Foundations are such, 70s-80s had certain style which now has been found to lead to issues like mold if done even slightly imperfectly.
Or water pipes from certain age that have already in 20-30s have started to leak, these being copper pipes...
After the fall of the Soviet Union, UK experts flew in to help with the transition, and one of the apparatchiks asked: "We are eager to try this capitalism thing; now tell us: who is in charge of the daily delivery of bread to London?"
To take IKEA as an example, their table were really bad 20 years ago, and the only option was to either buy from another flatpack company, that was often worse (assembly would need like 50 screws for a single table...wtf), or a hand made "old fashion" table that would last a lifetime but cost 10 times more. Current IKEA tables will last a lifetime for the same price as the crap from 20 years ago.
Another example is French and Italian cars. They were really bad decades ago, reliability issues were only compensated by the ease to repair and cheap local maintenance. But industrial process are so much better now that production quality and reliability is at a level way above what would be expected for cars of roughly the same production cost.
Makes sense!
I was also thinking there's a related rule - something worth buying used has proven itself to not be crap.
Now there are a hundred, most of them below the cut, with top ranked = SEO junk.
It’s standard practice to reduce safety margins when build quality increases. If you think in terms of expected lifespan, when the company has little control over how long things last and wants a minimum of say 1 year then some fail at 1 year and some fail after 20. As their process improves the minimum stays the same, but maximum lifespan decreases.
When people usually say that markets aren't efficient, they don't mean that optimal resource allocation is a computationally intractable problem. They're saying that they see, clear as day, obvious inefficiencies that aren't being corrected. They're saying that there are easily noticeable inefficiencies that aren't being corrected. And finding easily noticeable inefficiencies isn't NP-hard, by definition of easily noticeable.
A better version of the efficient market hypothesis would be that markets are inexploitable. There is no easy action I can take that corrects a market inefficiency and makes me money. This is the version that comes up in cocktail party conversations and it's also the one that Dan Luu is talking about. "If XXX is systemically undervalued by the market, why can't I start a company that specialises in using XXX?" The discussion following this question is much more relevant and interesting than encoding 3SAT into economic models.
No, that's absolutely not true and relies on what I think is the most perniciously false assumption behind market economics: that all market participants only make moves within the market itself.
If you're trying to win at chess then learning to master the rules and strategy of chess is where you focus your attention. But if you're trying to defeat your opponent (or not get defeated by them), you'll probably do better to bring a gun and/or body armor. If you focus 100% of your attention on the chessboard, you are completely opening yourself up for exploitation by an opponent who is willing to play the metagame.
And, indeed, in market economics, actors invariably do play the metagame. This is why we get cabals, trusts, rent seeking, regulatory capture, monopolies, price fixing, price dumping, lobbying, etc.
The ultimate goal of market actors is not to be maximally efficient. It's not even to win the market game. It's to make the most money. And often the best way to make the most money is to rig the game, cheat, or get the rules changed in your favor.
As I said, there is no reason those efficiencies should be easily correctable - because markets aren't efficient! That's the whole point. It's only in an efficient market that they would be correctable. This is the same as lots of computational and other problems. Lots of instances are easy and heuristics can often work very well. But you will still come up with situations where obviously broken things happen and are hard to make algorithms work.
It's sort of like having a cocktail party conversation about why you can't exceed the speed of light. Except because it's economics, you get stuck because there often isn't any real rigor behind it that you can push on. Just the empirical. Which I get why it's fun to talk about (really!) - without any meaningful rigor, anyone can participate and have fun - got a crazy empirical story? Awesome, that's all you need to prove something in economics! It makes for fun discussions where most people can participate and feel like it's not too hard.
I have no issue with that - my issue is of course that the cocktail party is not distinguishable from the field ;)
Beyond that, arguing they are inexploitable/unpredictable seems equivalent to whether they are efficient (and in most papers is considered equivalent to the efficiency hypothesis). I'm really unsure how you are trying to distinguish it. Maybe you could formulate it for real and show how it is not equivalent to the efficiency question?
Hard to deflate asset-price bubbles are a fact of finance.
For strong form efficiency (which requires markets perfectly reflect all available information) - You would have trouble finding people who still believe in strong form efficiency. The weak form paper above cites several papers that go into why strong form efficiency is impossible. There are formal proof versions around. In practice, even empirical studies of strong form efficiency haven't supported it either - it's just very easy to find practical counterexamples.
The underlying thesis being that market success is orthogonal to your internal company's state, inefficiencies included.
Also, more specifically - as a Samsung user for my preferences they offer as good or better products than Apple while operating on a smaller budget.
There is a lot of overhead everywhere. Dentists have an army of assistants. Any product to order requires it's sale agent. Even if you already know what you want. You must deal with the agent. Car dealership have so many sales but good luck getting an appointment for fixing the shit they sold you. Look to by a house, and be ready to deal with insane fees and agents. All this overhead has to be paid somehow I guess.
I agree with you on housing. The agents charge commission and closing costs and closing companies do charge quite a bit.
+ A fridge I purchased was delivered with a 2 weeks delay, at 10:30PM (!!) on a Saturday (only because I kept calling every other day).
+ I've ordered a new broadband connection for an apartment I was renting. After several months (!) of waiting and calls, I found out that the former tenant had unpaid bills with the provider and they therefore refused to establish the connection (I was only informed about this after 5-6 weeks of wait during which I was told everything's ok and pending execution).
Here's a story about how my laptop was broken and I was calling a repair shop:
Me: "Good morning, my laptop doesn't seem to display anything, looks like it's a problem with the screen, how does the pricing work in this situation?"
Shop: "Ugh...", the guy is annoyed.
Shop: "This is like saying you have a headache, and asking a doctor what needs to be done!", He shouts.
Me: "No need to get angry, I was just wondering-"
Shop: "Just bring it to the store!" - hangs up.
This is a perfectly normal experience dealing with customer service in Germany.
It's so hard to hire good help these days. And in the case of apartment building management, it sounds like they're renting out just fine despite the bugs and process fuckups. Hell, even you havent walked away for a competitor.
> Barrier to entry: Businesses like real estate require large capital and tend to be crowded already, so it is difficult for a disruptor to appear.
In a sense, there are startups in the "long term rental" space providing a better frontend to shitty landlords. Even airbnb is moving into that market. Whether they can successfully out UX Prometheus while relying on prometheus as a landlord I cannot say, but its one path out of capital requirements.
> Cultural normalization?: This is the most intriguing point for me. Maybe this level of shoddy service has been normalized and accepted in America - or at least the area we live in. Maybe people just don't know better and hence don't ask for more, and therefore companies can carry on providing what would be considered a sub-par service elsewhere.
Lots of people own housing instead of rent here. But you'll find plenty of similar angst about mortgage processing.
The fact that they don’t feel ashamed of mistreating a non-customer is however cultural.
Moving from state to state can almost feel like moving to an entirely different country.
I’ve said this before on other threads, and it seems to resonate with others, so I’ll say it here too:
I personally don’t care near as much about a single person’s opinion of a particular topic, as much as I care about the discussion of many people around a particular topic.
And by “topic”, in the case of HN, I mean the title of an article.
I often wish HN would just allow titles to get posted and HN folks just have a discussion around that. (Similar to Ask HN, but not necessarily in the form of a question.)
I’m a terribly slow reader, so there’s no way I could take time out of my already busy day to read this (very long, dense) article of a single person’s opinion of a single topic, especially if I don’t even know whether this person is an expert on said topic.
I guess this is particularly true when it’s a subject I’m only interested in on the surface, vs. caring more deeply about a particular subject.
I get much more ROI reading many people’s shorter discussions vs. a lengthy single opinion (again, given the time it would have taken me to read the article).
I have seen many, many cases where a big portion of the top comments are either saying something similar to what the author of the article said, or they are asking a question, or raising a rebuttal, that is already addressed in the article.
Comments are short and probably have close to zero research on average. Experience may play a part, but people don't usually offer up the resume with a comment, so you have no idea if they even have credibility. And there are mountains of witticisms, anecdotes, or emotional arguments that add little to nothing of value to the conversation.
Personally, I almost always read the article and then skim the comments to see if anybody has added any thoughts I might find interesting.
Plus I just have a lot of respect for the author. Dan Luu is a smart guy.
The thing is, the topic of the actual article is generally more interesting than the topic suggested by a naive reading of the title (as is the case here).
People discussing things based on titles leads to generic discussions that recur again and again and go nowhere. Whereas the actual topic of the article's content is rather more specific and could lead to an actual new and more specific discussion that might actually go somewhere.
But I think that the best way to start the conversation is usually with a well-written article.
If there would only be a title and no article, I'm pretty sure that I would find the comments to be less interesting.
But maybe I'm wrong, and since my argument is based on the original article being well-written, maybe it isn't true for most posts.
But I still think that I would rather try to find the posts with good articles, and just ignore the rest, and hopefully, that is what the ranking system does (at least help with).
I often wish HN would just allow titles to get
posted and HN folks just have a discussion around
that. (Similar to Ask HN, but not necessarily in the
form of a question.)
Sounds like a real recipe for hivemind to me. I mean, any community struggles with hivemind a bit. But, at least with discussions centered around articles that exist outside HN, we get a little fresh air. especially if I don’t even know whether
this person is an expert on said topic.
He's a pretty respected voice, or at least popular on HN.I find it very valuable to look into the authors of linked articles, see which authors pop up on HN frequently, etc.
Gives you an idea of who the leading voices in the industry are, helps you to know which way the winds are blowing.
Especially for somebody with a slower reading speed this may be crucial; helps to understand which article may actually be worth the time investment.
What if we want to hold a conversation about the actual post content? Should we add a tag such as [please read]?
Dan Luu is one of my favorite currently-active bloggers. He's obviously a smart person with a good amount of experience in specific areas.
However, I have to agree with your assessment. He has a tendency to present his personal anecdotes and perspective as the infallible ground truth and build elaborate essays and logic around it. I hesitate to talk about it because I think his blog is valuable, albeit if the reader can take it as one person's perspective rather than the absolute truth.
The biggest example of this effect is his Twitter thread about his tendency to fail interviews ( https://twitter.com/danluu/status/1470890494775361538 ). He spends a lot of time bragging about arguing with interviewers, dodging questions instead of trying to provide answers, and how he's never written production code that talks to a DB, performs an RPC call, or connects to an API. It's not at all surprising that anyone would be struggle to pass interviews like this, but he seems incapable of accepting that maybe he's doing something wrong or that he's simply not a good fit for the jobs he applied for. Instead, his implied analysis is that the interviewers are simply wrong, and that they're making a mistake to ask him those questions and eventually decline him.
The interview topic is especially challenging because blaming the interviewer is so very appealing to his audience of developers (who all abhor interviews and hate rejection even more). I think my disappointment comes from the fact that he's well-positioned to display some humility and teach some lessons about how someone can learn from their shortcomings, yet instead he uses his platform to further demonize his interviewers and make some worst-case assumptions about why he didn't get these jobs.
I think the best way to read this blog, like any, is to remember that the author is just another person with another set of perspectives and opinions. There's a lot of value there, as long as you take it with a grain of salt and remain open to other lines of reasoning.
I don't think Dan Luu is struggling for work.
So the question is do you want to hire someone like Dan Luu or not? If the answer is yes, then you might want to consider how your interview process might interact with such a person. If you are thinking from the perspective of someone doing the hiring (as those articles seem to be), it is nonsensical to simply respond by saying "well, the candidates just need to be more submissive and compliant to whatever our process is."
Perhaps Dan Luu is a unique snowflake and/or nobody needs to hire someone like that. Or it could be that there are quite a large number of developers with attitudes and experience that lead to similarly unproductive or inefficient interactions with tech interview processes because those processes may be fixating on having the candidate do a specific performance rather than trying to understand what individuals can offer and whether that would be useful when added to the existing team. It could be that such developers would be as good or better fit, in a lot of cases, than people who can do oscar-winning interview performances.
I think describing what he's doing as "bragging" is fundamentally misreading him. He's just very honest, regardless of how people will perceive it. And he needs to work in environments where that trait will be perceived positively, because he feels it's not an option to turn it off.
I'm sure that, for people who put up a social front as easily as they breathe, Dan's style can be viewed as simply a more elaborate social front, a form of peacocking that he feels he can get away with because of his technical skill.
It's a weird world we live in, where being honest is viewed as the strangest, most exotic and elaborate conceit.
> he seems incapable of accepting that maybe he's doing something wrong or that he's simply not a good fit for the jobs he applied for. Instead, his implied analysis is that the interviewers are simply wrong, and that they're making a mistake to ask him those questions and eventually decline him.
In the thread you linked, he links another thread (https://twitter.com/danluu/status/1447268693075841024) where his interviewer was wrong. And what's fun about Dan Luu is, he actually cares about answering a question correctly more than he cares about the intense pressure to "play the game" - that is, to conform, be agreeable, and affirm the viewpoint of whoever has power in a situation so that they like him. He wants to work in a position where that tendency is valued. Sadly, it usually isn't.
Personally I don't take it to the extreme he does, but I admire him for doing so. Sometimes there is nothing wrong with you; it is the world that's wrong.
You can adapt to survive in that wrong world, sure, but that doesn't make the observation incorrect.
As a counter-anecdote I'll offer my experience working for a company that built large precision machinery. Many of the parts of said machinery were built by subcontractors. The quality was extremely high. We did do certain things in house if they require special expertise and we did have the capability to do rapid prototyping but it wouldn't make any business sense for us to purchase all the equipment to make all those parts that we subcontracted.
I think this is common in many industries. (Automotive?)
Even with software this is far less than clear cut. There's plenty of times where you should not build it yourself and the quality stuff isn't always terrible. Seems like there's some cherry-picking going on in the examples re: bad software. Sure, there's lots of bad software, but there's also awesome software that works really well. Building it yourself isn't a guarantee that it'll work well. 90% of the time the people that think they can do better if they build it themselves can't, they just don't know it yet. And sure Kyle is great but there are plenty of solid databases built before he was around (before he was born?) by companies like IBM and Microsoft.
I've seen companies build in-house tooling that's much worse than what's available off the shelf and have an endless drain of resources due to that.
Build vs. buy isn't an easy call. I'll agree with that.
I felt like there was a self contradiction in the essay. You can't get great software but you can get great engineers that will build the great software in house? I don't think your chances of finding the team that can build that are any greater. You're just as likely to hire a bunch of people you think can do this and then find out they can't. 5 years later. Which sort of jives with the commentary of experts doing shoddy work...
EDIT: I'd also say that the examples of the stuff that was built in-house that was superior might be a case of survivorship bias.
EDIT2: Thinking more about machines... motors, sensors, cables, connectors, bolts, power supplies, pumps, linear rails, screws, etc. etc. all of which you buy, never make, the quality is generally very good, and it's almost unimaginable that you can be completely vertically integrated.
The amount of effort put into ensuring that suppliers do what they need to do and do it well is huge. Companies always have two (or more) suppliers and if you keep only to the letter of the contract, you get cut.
They can afford to put so much effort into managing suppliers because volumes are large and margins are low.
There are also cultural issues at play; he makes the point that things that are inevitable in one culture are unthinkable in another and different industries have different cultures
When you outsource manufacturing you're asking the other party to create exact replicas according to very specific specs your own engineers created.
With software the outsourcing usually includes outsourcing a large part of the design, which is inevitable, as there is no significant manufacturing you can outsource. Writing the software is creating the detailed specs. In software there is only product design, you don't really have to put a lot of effort into creating exact copies of the original design.
All made in Japan. Few or no Silicon Valley equivalents. Makes you wonder.
(A few of the replies I've gotten purely answered the title and didn't discuss the content.)
(Level 5 includes tasks such as “compare and contrast complex information, or to generate new information making high-level inferences or using specialized background knowledge”.)
Ha!
A.k.a. “avoiding weasel words”. I don’t mean to be clever here, it’s just that it’s far more efficient to assume that reader can make their own informed decision, and give them citations & instructions for reproducibility to help them along the way, rather than shovel a bunch of weasel words into the parts of your writing that are less grounded in reproducible facts.
There are also different expectations for blog posts and heavily researched&vetted articles.
"Up to 50% faster!" is weasel wording. It says "slower or faster, but not more than 50% faster," but it sounds like it's saying faster.
What GP is asking for is calibrating for uncertainty. Phrases like "I've seen this tendency in multiple teams I've been part of," or "study[ref] after study[ref] has confirmed this" help clarify what premises and hypotheses are well-supported by prior work/experience and what is the author's speculation. IMO It serves a useful purpose!
statement: Alice stole the briefcase
+weasel_wording: I think it's possible Alice could have stolen the briefcase
+confidence_level: I'd bet 5:1 that Alice stole the briefcase
Also note that I didn't say I wanted Dan to write less confidently. I wanted him to convey more varied confidence.What that requires though is they caveat everything.
I really respect people who say they are 99% sure and 60% sure when appropriate.
It requires a level of honesty not just to the audience but to the self to admit openly what you are and aren't sure about.
At least the parts about build vs buy sound extremely familiar to me. Setting up and integrating something you’ve bought often takes as much or more time than building it yourself.
The best argument for buying is that you’d make all stakeholders equally unhappy.
Experiment: No titles, just URLs. What would happen.
I have some experience with this as I freqently stream edit HTTP response bodies to make customised web pages using only simple HTML wrapped around only the data I am interested in, no cruft. For example, when I do web searches I process the response, i.e., the SERP, into simplified HTML, e.g., <li><a href=[url]>[url]</a>. I do not include titles.
Titles can be descriptive and helpful, however I find most times they are a distraction. Think about the "clickbait" tactic. It is heaviliy reliant on misleading titles.
This is a HN pattern as old as the hills. If the headline invites bikeshedding, most people will bikeshed. If the article is long and complex, almost no one will read the article. This one has both.
It is hard to buy consumer products that work well also. Look at the number of things you order on Amazon, and see how satisfied you are with stuff. All the synthetic material low-quality stuff.
Re: "getting a worse result even when they pay more than doing it internally", they either paid the wrong people, or they were trying to solve the wrong problem, or weren't good at using the product. If you're making Toyotas and you buy your parts from CheapPartCo, chances are good you end up with a crap car. If you buy your parts from Denso, at least you have the chance it will turn out well. If you take the Denso parts and assemble them terribly, you still end up with a crap car. And if you shouldn't have even used that part because your overall design was crap, you also end up with a crap car.
I'd say it's more likely the average person/company/etc will not make something well. Not only does it take more skill and hard work to make things well, they end up more expensive. If things are made well they probably took a lot more work to make them well, or the people who make things well are in higher demand. Show me a company that pays a premium for good vendors and full training for all their staff and holds back products until they pass a Steve Jobs-level of quality engineering, and I'll show you a company whose products work well, and probably charge a premium. (The only exception I know of is Toyota, because they are crazy enough to literally stop a production line just to troubleshoot a tiny issue. Their focus on quality has led to efficiency which reduces cost and increases production. But this is all Lean 101)
And this isn't a tech-specific problem because everything in the world has quality issues. The reason GM couldn't make a half-decent car while Toyotas were rock solid for decades was simply working harder on quality. You have to work hard to make something work well.
If supply is low, demand is high, the price goes up.
At the end of the day you can specify a dozen different metrics but someone will game it to cut corners. There’s no replacement for caring.
There's also the huge mental barrier of getting over the sunk cost fallacy. If you buy an expensive thing and a part of it breaks in such a way that it still remains mostly functional, it's really, really hard to admit that it should be replaced. You end up living with a broken thing for a long time, just because you're mentally depreciating the thing.
I've been through this with a lot of furniture. It doesn't seem to matter whether I pay $100 or $500 for a bookshelf, it's a crapshoot whether or not the listing lied about it being made of solid wood and not particle board, or whether the screw holes will align correctly, or been tapped correctly for the screws to actually engage without crossthreading, or even use proper screws and not those damn "lock"-bolts (that never actually lock, so given enough time they always work themselves loose).
My wife and I built our children's bunk bed. It was an expensive, time-intensive, physically painful endeavor, partly because this was the first time we were building something so large. It's not great. But it easily matches or exceeds the quality of any of the other furniture we've bought. I'm very proud of the work we did, but at the same time, I'm furious that I can't count on just buying things.
It's also gotten hard to trust people's recommendations on things, which goes back to the featured article's comments on cultural expectations. Most of the people I know just live with broken furniture. They think IKEA is great stuff. It's not. It's just that it's so impossible to find anything better that you might as well buy IKEA.
I might switch to only buying antique furniture, i.e. use survivorship bias to my advantage. Find the stuff that has survived taking a beating already.
So the amortized cost is some 100-200 dollars a year for an excellent chair. If you buy a crappy chair, i bet that the cushion starts failing after a year or so of constant sitting. So you'd probably replace it yearly, or suffer a bad chair for a few years before replacing.
I bet that most people would choose an excellent chair, if they could guarantee themselves the 10 yrs of good operation and comfort.
But there’s a corollary - if you do not need the thing to last, you may be better off with the cheapest one you can find (which may be used - and which may be better than new).
This is the “but it from harbor freight, if it breaks now you know you use it enough to make it worth getting a good one”.
Some people buy that $2000 chair when it's $350 and can still use it for years. The key is to learn what products remain quality products.
(And it's not about it being expensive. It's because it keeps your butt cool all year.)
I'm looking at an Aeron and while I have a decent salary, it's still a massive commitment for me to pay that much for something I put my ass on.
It's also worth noting that "as good as possible" and "as good as profitably possible" aren't just two flavors of the same principle w/ regards to quality--they're directly at odds. I'll prove this (with scientific finality) via an anecdote about toys.
My kiddo was gifted a little Fisher-Price school bus that was made in 2005.[0] It's pretty neat! As you roll the bus forward, some internal mechanism causes the driver to turn left and right (making it look like they're turning the steering wheel back and forth), and the passenger seats to move up and down (a dope allusion to the classic kid's song, 'The Wheels on the Bus', in which, as the wheels of the bus go 'round and 'round, the people on the bus go up and down). It's clear that this product was lovingly designed, with playful curves and playful details, like the face of the bus. The wheels not only have hub caps, but the shape of the tires even mimic a pneumatic bulge! The space inside of the bus is even big enough to accommodate human hands!
More recently, she was gifted a newer version of the same toy.[1] It's smaller in every dimension, and flimsier. The slick design is gone, replaced by simple, boxy one. The little things that I loved about the old bus are gone--the wheels are now a single piece of plain molded plastic. While the wheels of the bus still go round and round, the people on the bus, alas, do not go up and down.
It's fine, as far as toys go--the kid probably doesn't notice a difference. But it's clear that the guiding principle in the evolution of this product is not only not quality, but something that is directly in conflict with quality.
[0] https://www.ebay.com/itm/304338207633 [1] https://www.walmart.com/ip/Little-People-Sit-With-Me-School-...
If there's a such thing as rockstar software engineers, the people that made McMaster's site are it.
I also don't think they mark everything up 100%. I have built a lot of stuff out of T-slot extrusion ("80/20") and their price seems exactly the same as buying from 80/20 directly. I guess there is probably some Aliexpress vendor cheaper than the brand name, though.
You actually have to have someone whose job it is to look for inefficiencies. Someone who goes and talks to everyone on the line because they are the ones that really know. Someone who also recognizes that a 5% improvement in one area may not be worth the risk but a 1% improvement somewhere else may be. Just like staff scheduling: do you schedule the bare minimum of staff? What happens when 3 people next to each other all get the flu? Now where are you? Are you better off normally over-staffed and constantly cross-training? Most companies make money despite their operations. This is where Amazon has taken over the world, they have that as a core goal and corporate focus.
Is this really a case of mis-aligned incentives though?
The person running the assembly line has an interest in the business model of the company not being destroyed, because their salary depends upon it working. So they'll try to prevent the worst (to the business model) from happening. Risking to break some important production process for a lousy low percentage potential gain in efficiency sure doesn't seem to be in the interest of neither the individual person, nor the company, nor the customer.
As you write: the risks and benefits need to be carefully weighed perpetually .. simply an ongoing optimisation.
HN often underestimates how much of enterprise IT, and large business generally, is about making sure that upsides are concentrated enough your management chain can take responsibility, and downsides are either diffuse enough or deflectable enough that your management chain can avoid responsibility.
Sometimes the budget is yours sometimes you're sitting in meetings upon meetings with someone else deciding there's no immediate ROI so no budget for you.
So sure, the company is always to blame, but unless we're arguing the individual was not convincing enough, the person citing budget may not be choosing alone where to allocate it.
On the bright side, inefficient companies leave the market open for the rest of us. :)
Everybody was super chill until I was about 12. Then things got very ugly, very quickly. Anytime it was known that I was a female teenager, it was terrible, especially as one that was (at the time) better than some of the males. I'm also gay, so at the time I was stuck in this horrible situation of often being surrounded by dudes ~5 years older than I was who were a.) very creepy and b.) might be homophobic (including violent because again, 15-20 years ago) if I came out. And of course all the ones who are nice until they learn you'll never date them, or the ones that viewed me as a challenge/trophy of some sort.
Very weird to have aged both in and out of creepy male fuckability: Most of the creeps don't go for women over 25 (and I finally look like I'm in my mid-20s) unless they're elderly, and I can beat up most 75-year old men, so that's less scary.
I have some sympathy for the boys as an adult, because a lot of them were bullied a lot, but...dudes, you think I had it better? I had to deal with their bullying and yours. Thanks for that.
Enjoy your working non-lethal infrastructure, parasite.
B) There are regulations almost everywhere (especially, almost everywhere that has a profitable market to sell into), so it's probably easiest to just sell regulation-compliant equipment in the rest of them, too.
So it's not at all "preposterous" that the regulations actually work even in most places where they're not legally in force, and that you've just not noticed the few where they don't.
things that twenty, ten, five years ago were of high quality - same brand, update of same model - now you buy at a comparatively abysmal quality for a very similar price. It is today easy to find products which are cheap in manufacturing and expensive as a price tag.
This means that, in some way, people in some/many societies are tolerating quality degradation. And a decrease of alternatives is contributing. That, in some areas, it was once not necessary to spend time investigating which product was high or just decent quality (already the price could have been a good indicator), while now it is part of your task, shows that tolerance for low quality has increased. That is not for the 1 dollar item, but for whole range up to many figures.
And, a staggeringly increased inability to perceive degradation in general is evident today visiting some territories (and see what is tolerated now and was not before).
Also, several of the more sturdy things they had they no longer sell and what they have now in the same category are vastly less sturdy.
I agree though, they do still have some good, quality, sturdy kitchen tables and a few pretty good sturdy sofas.
But this assumes that brute force is the only possible way to find a winning strategy, and thus proves far too much. A similar argument would prove that sorting is NP hard, if you start by the assumption that the only way to sort data is by trying every possible permutation.
I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure any time you claim to have a proof that a problem is NP complete, but your proof doesn't include a reduction, you're doing it wrong.
(The paper does offer what it calls a reduction to 3-sat , but it's completely hand-wavy, and I can't even understand the intuition behind it at all.)
My uncle runs a computer repair business and is doing very well because he works late hours, is in a college town, and has flat pricing when possible. This means he spends Sunday night reinstalling OSes on student’s laptops at $75/each.
That’s the benefit of nested comments, to allow different top-level discussions where others can discuss what is being shared by top-level commenters.
My original point was to not be “depressed” by others choosing to not take the time to read the article, and have a discussion on the topic rather than the subject.
Pretty often they are answering easy question and leaving the harder one sleep. Pretty often, the goal is to get rid of you email as fast as possible so that they can go back to what they actually want to be doing.
So in this case the weasel wording doesn't make the statement weaker as it shows strength to admit you may be wrong.
Just a week or so ago, the IMPORTHTML/XML and related functions in GSheets just...stopped working. There are Reddit and Google Helpdesk threads about it so it's clearly a global issue. As far as I know, no fix has landed yet.
I had to spend a weekend writing a bunch of scripts to reimplement importing functionality so an international competition hosting more than 600 people from 28 countries wouldn't collapse on the spot. Everyone on the team, including me, was initially glad we were using GSheets as it made our work much easier - until it suddenly made it much, much harder.
Google & co are doing their best to remove themselves from a rational person's critical path. They're too big, you're too small; they're full of AI and politics, you have no recourse.
Analogy doesn't work; "in-sourcing" of previously-IaaS resources as a cost-cutting measure, is used almost exclusively for "base load" (vs. elastic load, which is the comparative advantage of IaaSes); and so your in-house servers are usually running pinned at 100%. So the hardware components will wear out just as fast, if not faster, than the IaaS's servers will; and when they do, your ops team won't have as many spare parts on hand as the IaaS does; nor the ability to live-migrate the enforced VM to another exactly-equivalent substrate host in the fleet (which was already warm) to avoid downtime altogether.
Also, apart from that, there are economies of scale in reliability. Your in-house backups are probably just a ZFS pool or a RAID5+1 array or something. They're certainly not hosted within a 17+-copies Dynamo-ish system, the way most IaaS object storage (incl. archival storage) is, because the costs of doing that in-house are ridiculous.
Obviously, this puts them at the mercy of the okta if anything goes wrong with IdM. But then again, people are very bad at doing auth.
Are you implying that having more than 3 copies is somehow more reliable? Cause that sounds pretty insane.
"Third-party service providers are incentivised to minimise their costs. If their clients cannot assess the quality of their service and/or end-users cannot reward or penalise them based on the quality of the services, then quality is poor, because it is cheaper to not provide services and later argue about it than to provide the service. Third party deficiencies/misbehaviour get so bad sometimes that there are no gains from trade and occasional losses.
"Internally, inside companies, the incentives may be to act similarly to third-parties, or they may not. This depends on "culture"."
And here the essay would be improved with an analysis of the compnents of "culture" that matter. It talks about trustworthiness of company leadership, but that is only one factor, surely.
1. Akerlof's "Market for Lemons" paper is the seminal one here.
I consciously adopted the "poor young constable Vimes" strategy for footwear last year. I like, and would probably prefer, quality shoes -- but it's such a crapshoot what those are nowadays that I just can't be bothered to buy a pig in a poke yet again. I mean, brands that used to be OK when I was younger... Mostly aren't any more.
So last year when Lidl had trainers for sale at 30 € (or was it 20? 25? 15?) I bought five pairs. Still on the first ones, so definitely financially ahead -- "better" brands haven't lasted any longer than that in my recent experience.
Well, it's not even sure if you take resell value into account. If you need your good chair for one year, just buy it $2000 and sell it used for $1900.
For some products like pasta and canned tomatoes, you can hold enough stock to deal with a 99th-percentile day without any wastage at all; if it doesn't sell today, it'll sell tomorrow.
But for those little packaged sushi snacks with a one-day shelf life? Any overstock is going in the trash at the end of the day.
And sushi snacks mostly sell to workers on their lunch breaks. You'll see big fluctuations in demand if a nearby office changes their work-from-home policy, or has a big all-hands meeting that gets everyone in. Even the greatest demand modelling can't predict such things, as nearby office meetings aren't available as a model input.
Some products are also easily more easily substitutable than others: If the 1kg pack of mid-priced spaghetti is out of stock, maybe I buy the low-priced brand, the premium brand, the 500g packet, the wholewheat version and so on.
For many people, price is almost certainly at least as big a factor. Many, perhaps even most, people are willing to accept things being out of stock now and then for 10% lower prices.
This is why I never select cutting edge tech for our company - unless it's part of our area of expertise/innovation.
As for expense, the reliability of the filesystem is free up to a certain point. There are system failure modes that have to be covered by hardware and admin expenses, such as decentralized backups (just one example off the top of my head).
Also, if the subject is more interesting than the title, then authors should consider being more thoughtful around a title that fits the subject, vs. making sure people click the article.
The problem with this is that, frequently -- as is the case here I'd say -- there is no easy way to properly pin down the actual topic in the space of a reasonable title. The title will necessarily be more broad than the actual topic; if you in general take titles as wholly delineating the topic, rather than suggesting the general space they're in, you're making a mistake.
Sticking only to those topics that can be wholly expressed in the space of a brief title is a big limitation on topics; as I said above, taking titles as topics just leads to the same discussions over and over.
Framing this as a matter of “honesty” is, well reductive.
Your confidence is irrelevant to the discussion, unless there’s some particular reason which makes it relevant. A good reader should not hang much weight on your confidence anyway.
Yes it is more honest. Pretending certainty where you don't have none is lying and pretty often has exact that effect. It is way more egoistic and self centered to act with certainty just so you dont look "defensive" or "timid".
Because then you are exchanging truth for feeling good from appearing strong.
> are you brazenly assuming that people care about how confident you are about things, or are you defensively trying to say the least possible?
This does not make any sense as accusation. You are expressing level of confidence. You can do that independently of whether "people care". It is also perfectly OK to defensively say the least possible. Literally nothing wrong with that.
Aggressively saying maximum, even if you know it is likely half truth at best, is much much worst.
It sounds like you are arguing that writers should spend more time spelling things out for readers which aren’t very good at reading comprehension. That doesn’t seem very efficient—it wastes most people’s time, since the writer is spending more time spelling things out explicitly and avoiding ambiguity, all of the readers with decent reading comprehension skills have to spend more time sifting through crap that doesn’t add value to the text (for them), and only the people with lower reading comprehension skills get any benefit. People with lower reading comprehension skills are less likely to be reading text-heavy blogs in the first place!
The following claim may be controversial—generally, there is a tradeoff between clarity and precision, and the right tradeoff depends on the context and what your goals are. The internet, and forums like HN, distort our perception of where the correct tradeoff is, because the people complaining about lack of precision are the loudest. You should be aware of who your audience really is… is it people capable of interpreting claims in persuasive documents? Or is it people who decide to complain on HN?
The sweet spot of course is a short, clear and correct explanation, but finding that can take a lot of effort.
This is the problematic logic I was trying to highlight: It's written as though he's infallible. He knows the correct answers to the interview questions, but he also deduces what his interviewers are thinking and why they're wrong.
The other possibility is that maybe the interviewers know what they're doing when they decline him, even when he answers the questions correctly. Interviews are about more than just reciting the correct answers to the questions, but he only discusses them as a sort of pass/fail quiz where the candidate is supposed to guess what the interviewer wants to hear.
My perspective is likely quite different as a hiring manager. The part where he talks about Palantir walking him out the door despite correctly answering the questions as fast as they can deliver is the kind of thing that happens when the interviewers agree that someone is smart, but isn't a good fit for the team. If you do enough interviews, you eventually come across people far more brilliant and successful than yourself whom you would nevertheless not really see fitting into your company's work culture. Someone who openly boasts about dodging interview questions and debating interviewers because they think they can read the interviewer's mind (and they are wrong) fits this description. You know they'll do fantastic things somewhere, but they're not the kind of person you're looking for to fill the open position on your team.
> I don't think Dan Luu is struggling for work.
Neither do I! I never meant to imply as much. Dan posted the long Twitter thread over a period of several weeks, so it appeared in my timeline frequently. I only brought it up as an example of his writing style, not his career.
In one interview where I would have gotten it but didn't the reason was basically I wasn't submissive, the tech lead was in my opinion rude and so when he made some technical mistakes I pointed them out. Why did I do that? Because I did not need the job. If I had needed the job I would have been submissive.
Perhaps a lot of interviews fail to hire Dan because the interview process is geared towards hiring someone who needs the job. Why is this? No idea, especially as lots of interviews take place with someone who already has a job and the new place wants to attract. But for some reason companies want to attract flies with vinegar and not honey, contra the old adage.
on edit: regarding on why I did that, well I also did it because the lead was rude. Otherwise I wouldn't have pointed out when they were wrong.
Im asking as someone who does not generally read his blog.
I'd hope that the more expensive chair has better adjustability to suit a wider range of critical dimensions than the cheaper chair. But that may not matter for a lot of people.
Another good way, check how much insurance costs. e.g. How much is that extended warranty going to cost on one car vs another. How much is home owners insurance in one neighborhood vs another. Insurance companies that make mistakes here go out of business.
Ice cream makers are one thing I have found that for. White Mountain made a really high quality product, but the used market is obscene, because people collect them apparently (at least in my part of the country).
A book on "chess strategy" would be very different if it's definition of "chess" included the whole of human conflict and warfare. It probably wouldn't spend much time talking about rooks and pawns at all.
I simply stated my experience — I never even said my experience was right or that it is wrong to read the article, or that others should experience HN the way I do.
I’m a slow reader and don’t have time to read lengthy articles, and therefore am drawn more to discussion.
You are (likely) a quicker reader and are drawn more to articles.
There’s room for both of us in the world — and on HN (I hope).
At least I read their comment as "I often wish HN would allow, besides links, just titles to get posted and HN folks just have a discussion around that".
Would you still wholeheartedly disagree with that, too?
If the topic is some change in the latest release of a programming language, I usually find the comments here to be helpful.
But if the topic is global politics or economy, then sure, the quality here isn't much better than some other random social media site.
Very little stays consistent…
How long has electrical be 120v AC? How long has auto voltage been 12v vs 5v?
Details, materials, and implementation change (building off of prior versions), concepts and overarching system designs are slow to change.
I have to disagree! I simply do not understand what useful purpose it serves—IF we are allowed to assume that our readers have a proficient level of prose literacy. The default assumption, when someone is talking or writing, is that they are communicating their own opinions and thoughts, experiences, anecdotes.
I don’t know about you, but when I think back to taking writing classes in school, if I wrote something like “I've seen this tendency in multiple teams I've been part of” in my paper, any good writing teacher I’ve ever had would cross it out. Same as “it is my opinion that” or “I have recently started to form some beliefs in the matter at hand after reviewing some materials that came into my possession” or other… filler. It pads out the document and only tells us things that we should already know, or be able to figure out.
The ability to sort out opinions and anecdotes from factual claims and evidence is… well… something you’d expect from a proficient reader!
> The ability to sort out opinions and anecdotes from factual claims and evidence is… well… something you’d expect from a proficient reader!
How does a proficient reader separate facts from opinions if good writing doesn't disambiguate facts and opinions? Do they just assume?
e.g.: Butter is about as healthy as vegetable oil. Arugula is healthier than lettuce.
I can cite a meta-analysis for one of the above statements. The other is just my opinion, and I have done no research into the topic. How would a proficient reader tell them apart if there's no calibrating for uncertainty?
Side note: I went through the original blog post again, and there are lots of examples of Dan Luu doing exactly what I'm writing about, to the point where I'm confused why the original commenter thinks he's not using a different tone based on uncertainty.
Examples:
"I once watched, from the inside, a company undergo this cultural shift"
"I've both worked at companies that have tried to contract this kind of thing out as well as talked with many people who've done that"
Facts and opinions are not different qualities of the same claim, but different claims to begin with. “Butter is about 18% water, by weight” is a factual claim and “butter is about as healthy as vegetable oil” is probably opinion because the word “healthy” is, well, often vague and not something people agree on, at least in this context.
> Side note: I went through the original blog post again, and there are lots of examples of Dan Luu doing exactly what I'm writing about, to the point where I'm confused why the original commenter thinks he's not using a different tone based on uncertainty.
Yes, I get a sense that there may be some more cogent complaint that the original commenter has, a complaint which provoked the comment, but I can’t figure out what that complaint is from the comment.
Just that people who complain about tone often have something else to complain about, but tone is more obvious.
He just writes in the same voice for both researched facts/studies and personal anecdotes. But it’s always very clear which is which, and an informed reader should (IMO) not have a problem differentiating.
The commenter you’re replying to is objecting to unnecessary couching and cloaking of opinion/anecdote. And I think there’s very, very little of that in Dan Luu’s writing — and it comes off as a “matter-of-fact tone.”
It can also be useful to communicate brief info about why I have a particular confidence level. “I had a friend who…” vs “I’ve seen several times…” vs “Several studies have found…”
> when I think back to taking writing classes in school
Yeah I think most of that stuff was bullshit. Or, being more charitable, they were trying to convey a general idea like “don’t overly hedge” with a coarse rule like “never use hedging language”.
I think most writing “rules” tend to be coarse approximations at what good writing really is. Another example is “give your essays a general structure, introduce your main point, etc.” => five paragraph essays.
Long-form content suffers from hedging more that HN comments do. As a writer, you may think highly of your confidence level, and you may want to communicate the difference between a claim that you’re confident about and a claim that you are unsure about, but the right way to do that is to provide the information necessary for other people to come to the same conclusion. If that’s not possible, or it’s not germane, or you’re just busy doing something else, then you don’t do it, and that’s okay. It’s often just irrelevant for people to understand how much you believe something.
The tradeoff I see here is between clarity and precision. If you focus too much on precision, the clarity of whatever you’re trying to say suffers.
The ability to communicate the level of confidence in a statement is something I hope for in proficient communicators.
There are similarities in your example. The fact that Tesla has autopilot and is an EV represent two of the biggest moves away from traditional car concepts. If you used an ICE car I would say the concepts haven't changed much.
No woo woo necessary. You may be interested in checking this (and related citations) about research on gratitude and psychological well being:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gratitude#Psychological_interv...
One thing we can do is keep a gratitude journal where we write down things we're grateful for. Can literally be grateful for the sun shining, or not experiencing an earthquake, for having the ability to write in a journal in the first place, etc.
It's so, so powerful.
Grocery stores are a marvel for sure. It's a miracle that we can get a season fruit like grapes 365 days a year.
I guess because there isn't enough time and money to assess the quality and optimize them.
Even light switches are pretty cheap. You can get a basic single light switch for around $2. Sure there's decora switches, dimmer switches, and all kinds of other great things for $50+ but the basic $2 ones will still last decades.
I’ve had 2 switches fail over the last 2 years out of the ~40 switches installed in the house. One failed by welding itself closed and another failed by caving into the electrical box when I hit it too hard. Even though the 40 year life expectancy of a single switch sounds good, the reality is that one fails catastrophically every year. I’d love to get more reliable switches that last well over a century, but I’m not aware of anyone that measures this sort of thing.
And for kitchenware and dinningware, we still get decent quality for a still rather cheap price. Of course as the article stated it's not easy to determine which one with decent quality, however if customers only aim for the cheapest one of course it won't be good.
They're pretty good examples of things that are cheap and don't work very well, if your goal is health and not distraction/entertainment.
I decided to try paying much more for a Fellow Stagg EKG, and it was a great decision. It’s lasted over 3 years and has been an absolute joy to use compared to the prior mass market garbage.
I often wish for a Wirecutter-like site that prioritizes quality and especially longevity above all else. Wirecutter always focused too much on cost, and even their “upgrade picks” tend to suffer awful quality issues. For years their top blender pick was an Oster that had hundreds of angry reviews about dying within months. Wirecutter ignored the feedback for years despite so many people streaming into their own comments section to vent about it.
When I bought my house I finally said "screw it, let's see what decent appliances look like".
Japanese rice cooker set me back $95 and I thought I would never hear the end of it, and after 4 years, it had already paid itself off (we were doing $14 rice cookers every 6 months). Air fryer was $70 but the previous $40 only lasted 13 months. Basic coffee maker was like $60 but made non-burnt coffee. A little combo oven/toaster is what I ended up on since we had one in the last apartment since we never used a full oven.
The ones that are honestly pretty difficult to find were dishwasher but one of our friends suggested bosch because we wanted a quiet appliance.
In addition to their testing process itself, they actually dogfood their advice by using their own picks in their test kitchen so they get used by tons of people way more often than any testing process could accomplish so they can get a real sense of how good a recommendation holds up over time.
Of course, the downside is that new ones start at £150 or so. So it's difficult to make a financial case (as opposed to an aesthetic, or a principled one) over a £10 special from Tesco.
When you do buy ‘commercial’ kitchen equipment you’ll notice lots of things that are just downright worse. Energy efficiency, safety features, and noise reduction are all things that are _way_ worse than with their domestic counterparts.
1: https://www.blokker.nl/blokker-waterkoker-bl-10202---rvs---1...
I have not discovered a way to find one that is not so designed. Regular reviews are useless.
Commercial fridges will stay cool even if their door is opened 20 times an hour. Commercial glass washers take a tenth of the time a home dishwasher takes. And if they're noisy, ugly and they need to be cleaned every day without fail, that's just normal commercial equipment.
The blender I bought second hand, and it came with a box of original replacement parts and specifications so detailed that I believe I could probably replace the motor if it ever fails (almost 6hp! Take that, Vitamix!). It makes nut butter in no time.
The trimmer could probably be used to cut down trees.
I love these machines, and if they ever fail I don't thing I could ever replace them with anything of similar quality. They are 35 years old. The electronics in the kitchen machine still look pristine. I keep all bearings well lubed. It runs like a Swiss watch. Only very loud.
I have things from the 80s that, obviously, have lasted a long time. But I have owned things from that era that have failed and been forgotten about.
Incidentally I bought some boots this year that are expected to last (at a minimum) 10 years, and I suspect they would, but I can't know that until 10 years from now.
Heirloom quality is probably still a thing, but only discoverable when an item actually becomes an heirloom.
Funfact: Those type of regulations are heavily discussed even these times again, when I look at EU right to be repair, or the discussions specifically around John Deere and the right to be repair.
It broke within 2 years..
I took it apart and discovered it was full of plastic gears on load bearing components which predictably got annihilated by wear and tear. The old one had metal ones.
I echo the article's sentiment that while cheap usually means bad, expensive stuff is usually indistinguishable in quality from mass-market stuff nowadays.
I mostly meant it as a comment on what the parent said; I could pay four times the price for something and have it last 35 years (which is 15x longer than the blender I had before it) I gladly would.
The fact that I can repair most of it is also a thing I miss in the things I buy today.
Not necessarily; it's also sufficient to consider the overall distribution of blenders and hair trimmers from the 80s that are still working compared to the distribution of items sold, which means it's also fairly easy to spot because people use their kitchen/bathroom appliances frequently and notice when exceptionally old ones still work.
Lots of products have more expensive buy-in buy are cheaper in the long run.
I change the oil about twice a year. Over the past eight years, that has cost me about $480.
I have changed the transmission fluid three times. That has cost me about $140.
I've changed the air filter a couple times...not very often. Let's be generous and call it $40.
Around 120k I replaced the spark plugs. They were weirdly expensive, costing about $100.
I have performed no other maintenance.
I have filled it with gas about once a week. It's a pretty small tank. I'd estimate about $6000-$8000.
Add all that up, pretend electricity is free, and I have still come out way, way, way ahead versus buying a Model 3. I've still spent less than half of what I would have on a Model 3.
The current cost-over-time of my (and apparently your) ICE car is not meaningfully high enough to want to 'upgrade' to an all-electric. Plus, when mechanical problems eventually arise, there's already a somewhat-independent parts and labor infrastructure to lean on to get it back on the road.
On a personal level, I'm also opposed to giving Elon more money, and opposed to the idea that my car may brick itself with an auto-update. I also got a promotional 0% loan on my car, have zero intention of paying that off early, and can see this car lasting until 2028 or 2030. Unless I have kids, this car should be fine for my needs until then.
(They are legitimately cool though!)
Modern engines & oils don't need the oil changing every 3000 miles, but the folklore belief in the necessity of doing so rolls on unstoppably in the USA.
The price difference buys lot of maintenance. And gas...
Servicing is fully covered and the garage keeps track of when things need changing.
It wasn't so long ago that leasing was actually cheaper option than buying (on credit).
In any case, the wife's 1996 Hyundai was worth more to the breaking yard than it was to the second hand market when it's transmission failed in summer of 1997. So even if the battery pack fails immediately after the warranty period and that totals the car, I've still come out ahead in total cost of ownership.
When I was young, almost everything I owned was the cheapest possible version of that thing. Everything just kind of sucked, brutally cost-optimized to the point of being somewhat nasty to use and barely functional.
I was still very fortunate: I had food to eat, clothes, etc. A lot of kids in the world would have traded places with me.
Now that I'm older, I have no interest in "luxury" goods, but there's that subtle intangible benefit to using e.g. the $95 rice cooker vs. the $14 rice cooker. You feel like somebody who's worth more than the cheapest possible piece of disposable shit, I guess. Or at least I do.
It makes better rice, too, of course. And there's the ecological benefit of not tossing a $14 rice cooker into the landfill every couple of months. But there's also a bit of self worth involved, or something.
It's not super fancy or anything but it fills that rice craving and is a multi-use device.
I make rice in a saucepan on the range top. I have to come back and turn it off when it's done. Otherwise, it is the same. If you care about how good your rice is, you are starting with short-grain rice. Or red, or black, or arborio for risotto.
We've been very happy with our Bosch. Don't ever buy a cheap dishwasher.
The only real difference above $400 is how loud it is. In a silent room you can't tell whether the $1200 dishwasher is running at all.
That does not matter to everybody.
Not that electricity is free or that we have long term cost data, but I suspect the EV / plug in hybrid premium is a very easy choice in Finland.
The average car life in Finland seems to be 15.6 years (let's round that to 16, helping the case for EVs).
The average distance traveled by Finnish cars, based on 2018 data, is about 13600km per year (let's make that 14000km per year, also helping the case for EVs).
That works out to 224k km over the lifetime of a car. That's only 140k miles.
Regarding your 35mpg (was 30mpg before the edit), that's 6.7l per 100km (7.8 before edit), let's make that 7l per 100km (and 8 before edit), further helping the case for EVs.
But in reality a small car such as the i10 probably uses more like 5-5.5l per 100km (40-45mpg).
Then the gas price is super high due to the Covid economic bounceback coupled with the supply chain issues plus the latest conflict.
I'd say your numbers are too optimistic plus they're for the entire lifetime of the car. The average owner probably has the car for half that duration, at best. So they don't really care about the entire lifetime.
Still, things seem to be getting closer than 10 years ago, for example.
The really bad thing is the upfront price. There's no comparable EV in the i10 price range, which is a very cheap car (we're talking about a car around €12k).
https://www.fuelly.com/car/hyundai/grand_i10
Finland imports a lot of used cars but: “An average car in the fleet 12.6 years of age” that suggest the car actually lasts to ~25.2 years. It’s not that simple because again they are importing and exporting used cars.
https://www.aut.fi/files/2524/Annual_statistics_of_car_marke...
there is now! I'm seeing the Dacia Spring appear everywhere - probably because it starts at only 13k in France including the ecobonus (I think base price is 16-17k). This is an absolute game-changer
I grew up with Zojirushi rice cookers. They always worked. The last one I bought sputtered starch water all over the counter. Stuff you can buy in the US today is not the same as what we could buy even 20 years ago.
I bought them off Amazon, do sourcing isn’t difficult, but some research might be in order if you want Japanese manufacturing. You’ll pay more for these models as well — they aren’t the cheap or maybe even middle-priced options... (I believe my rice cooker was nearly $300, 5 or so years ago...)
Another upshot of this is that with rarely driven vehicles, you might as well use the cheapest oil which meets appropriate specs, because your oil changes are driven by additive depletion and oil contamination rather than breakdown of the oil itself.
> Another upshot of this is that with rarely driven vehicles, you might as well use
> the cheapest oil which meets appropriate specs, because your oil changes are driven
> by additive depletion and oil contamination rather than breakdown of the oil itself.
The Ferrari gets the cheap stuff, the Kia gets the good stuff. I love how some things are so unintuitive.I just ordered an oil testing kit from Blackstone. Thank you for the idea.
The very same cars in Europe will have an oil change every 2 years or so. My Volvo S60 Model 2000 has an oil change every 3 years.
There must be something that you get sold on by marketing that is so wrong. BTW. Also a Tesla has oil in their gearbox, even if it is just a single gear integrated into the single unit combined with motor and inverter. For a Model S it is recommend to replace it every 12.5k miles, which is exactly the very same recommendation as with other car model.
The "as indicated" ends up being around 8-10k miles in practice, with start/stop cycles, short trips, and other factors swinging it higher/lower.
These days, we average <4k miles year per car, so use the annual interval.
There was a recommendation to change the gear oil previously, but newer versions of the S removed those. Even then I seem to recall it was way longer than 12,500 miles.
https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/models/en_us/GUID-E95DAAD...
Your vehicle should generally be serviced on an as-needed basis. However, Tesla recommends the following maintenance items and intervals, as applicable to your vehicle, to ensure continued reliability and efficiency of your Model S.
Brake fluid health check every 2 years (replace if necessary). A/C desiccant bag replacement every 3 years. Cabin air filter replacement every 3 years. Clean and lubricate brake calipers every year or 12,500 miles (20,000 km) if in an area where roads are salted during winter Rotate tires every 6,250 miles (10,000 km) or if tread depth difference is 2/32 in (1.5 mm) or greater, whichever comes first
Seeing as how the recommended cleaning and lubrication of the brakes is 12,500mi, I'm wondering if you heard that and got confused about the lubrication needs. As mentioned in their manual, this is really only recommended for places where they salt the roads in the winter. Since the brakes don't get used as much its even worse than a regular car with the corrosion. If you're not in a high road salt area, its not a problem.
The recommended service interval on other EVs also have extremely extended oil change intervals. The service life of the Mach E's gear oil is 150,000mi and the coolant change is at 200,000mi.
https://www.fordservicecontent.com/Ford_Content/Catalog/owne... (warning: PDF document)
If you're changing your EV's oil every 12,500 miles you're either doing it way too often, you bought a defective EV, or you should repair the leaks.
As for the Model S fluid change, thank you for mentioning it, I did not know that. I believe that there is no fluid change interval defined on the Model 3, which I just recently bought.
Because everybody drives differently, mileage and time based recommendations aren't the best. Some places will offer to test your used motor oil during a change and will tell you if you waited too long or changed it to early.
Thank you for the advice, I will research the service intervals on the Tesla.