I can’t predict the future, but I know this: the exercise market is a fad market.

What I mean is people jump on whatever is trendy that year. Right now, and I argue we are past peak, it is Peloton. Before that crossfit, before that tough mudder, road running, yoga, bowflex, p90x, and on and on. Now, none of these things have gone away, but they go in and out of vogue.

One thing working in Peloton’s favor is they may be an acquisition target by Apple, Nike, or someone else, but if not, what they do is not so hard for another exercise equipment company to duplicate with a little bit of time.

So is Peloton a good investment? Maybe, but probably not based on their fundamentals. They lose money, a lot of money, and their growth has stalled.