I am also in the boat that thinks Putin wouldn't risk it, and I've defended that argument against alarmists who still fear that an ICBM is on its way to America (which isn't even really on the table).

Then I see him appear on the news wearing a $15,000 Italian jacket and I'm not sure he's got all his faculties.

I think a far more likely scenario is a dirty bomb in Europe or an attack on the American carrier fleets and forward naval bases.

Once you push the button, Uncle Sam is coming. No doubt. So why would they waste the first shot? And any ICBM directed at the western hemisphere is going to be met with either ICBMs or Navy SEALs in the Kremlin. Rather the Russians will use deniability to their advantage, or if they are making an unambiguous act of war they might as well aim for the west's mightiest weapon... it's ability to summon air superiority anywhere.