Earth Officially Home To 7 Billion Humans(science.slashdot.org) |
Earth Officially Home To 7 Billion Humans(science.slashdot.org) |
These are outdated links, but take note of the top 10 most populated countries in 2050. The fact that Nigeria, Ethiopia and DRC are projected to enter the top 10 list will lead to interesting consequences for Africa.
http://www.photius.com/rankings/world2050_rank.html
http://www.kulzick.com/pop100.htm
Also since independence in 1947, Pakistan's population has grown to 177 million today from around 30 million (a six-fold increase). And is estimated to end up at a whopping 270 million over the next couple of decades. Similarly, Nigeria is also witnessing a population explosion starting off with around 55 million in 1971 and right now at ~150 million.
Edit: The UN has a nice website where one can get much more detailed information about population projections.
It almost certainly isn't. The extremely strong propensity for rich countries to have fewer-than-replacement children kills this model. Animal models have no equivalent to this.
We're headed into uncharted territory with human population. Usually this is supposed to be a sort of implicitly scary thing to say, but since the charted territory here is "guaranteed major ecological catastrophe", it's net good news. Disaster is not assured! (Of course, it's still on the table. It's always on the table.)
On the flip side, we're in thoroughly uncharted territory in terms of carrying capacity as well. On the relevant timeframes (decades, minimum), nobody can correctly predict what our technological carrying capacity will be. There's no guarantee it will continue going up, but contrary to the doommongers there's no guarantee it will stay static or go down significantly either; if in 40 years we've licked nuclear energy and cheap robots we could well be growing huge amounts of food in robot-tended greenhouses stacked into skyscrapers, powered by the nuclear energy, or growing meat in vats with chemical energy more efficiently than going through the full biological cycle. And while that may sound like sci-fi, those actually feel like conservative extrapolations of existing trends. (Just about the only prediction I won't buy is the one where we make no further progress and everything stays the same but we keep consuming resources at the same rate, but that's the one you hear most often.)
Probably depends on the quality of life people are willing to put up with.
As far as the absolute limits, it's unlikely we're anywhere near them. If humans switched to becoming significantly more vegetarian in their diet we could support quite a lot more people with current levels of food production. Yet food production is not even remotely running up against fundamental limits at current levels.
Natural selection (and common sense) tells us that individuals and cultures who value large families (Mormons, Catholics, etc.) will gradually out-populate those which do not. And as people who desire many children begin to make up a larger proportion of the population, it seems likely that overpopulation could resume its exponential trajectory.
Of course, the same thing was said when the global population hit 1 billion, and so forth... thus I do agree that given we're an innovative species there is a good chance we'll survive.
And I love the disclaimer:
The information contained in this web site is for entertainment and information purposes only.
You wish, SAP.
Edit. And then, there's this:
United States of America
Total Population: 313,089,333
% of Oceania Population: 90.08%
—sigh—http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/Wor...
Most projections show the world population reaching a peak a few decades from now (while most HNers and Slashdotters are still alive) and then becoming gradually less over the next two centuries.
And if we continue to extend the average age, then we may never shrink in numbers (barring a major catastrophe or mass-migration).
I'd love to talk to people about it but I've never spoken to anyone in person who has read and understood it. I've read some commentary on the web, but most of it is filled with politics and preconceived notions (often the case of any discussion on these subjects) that detract from it.
Has anyone here read it? I blogged briefly about it here -- http://joshuaspodek.com/the_best_book_on_the_environment_eco....
The Amazon link -- http://www.amazon.com/Limits-Growth-Donella-H-Meadows/dp/193...
Assuming they maintain the birthrate they've had for the past 100+ years (and there is no reason to suspect otherwise), in 2150, the Amish run America[1].
What happens to global politics when a culture that eschews violence gains control of the world's largest nuclear arsenal? What happens to transnational industry and innovation when a culture that balks at accepting the latest technological trends dominates the public arena? Additionally, the 21st Century may be the high-point of multiculturalism in the US. In 2150, over half the population of the USA may be of Swiss-German descent.
[1]I know the link seems dubious, but the math behind the projections looks just as credible as the UN's projections. http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/859411-Amish-population-...
Of course, by this time it would be energy-cheap to expand beyond Earth.
Earth can only sustain so many people, and since we do not currently have a viable way to get off this earth and/or to terraform other planets (hell, we can't even agree on a common plug to use for household appliances) it looks like it will remain that way for a while.