Ask HN: How to cope over missed Opportunities?

2 points by Max-20 4 years ago | 5 comments

It is the summer of 2014 and after having heard about Bitcoin the year before I stumble upon the active ICO of a new coin called "Ethereum".

I just finished high school and managed to save $10k, I am thinking "Hell, what if I invest $5k and hold for 5 years like one of those VCs who invest in companies?".

I slept over the decision and the next day it seemed foolish so I dismissed the thought.

Fast forward to January 2020, I read about the news of Covid on Jan. 07. and think to myself "Hell, this surely will result in some stock market disruptions". I am taking my final exams of university right around that time. I even looked up a VIX based ETF which proceeded to 5x the very next month. Of course I didn't took any action.

Same as above for the russian invasion in December 2021.

How to cope with missed opportunities like these? How to learn to take risks, as thats basically my main struggle in life in general.

eimrine 4 years ago |

I have bought some ETH for $8 each. Most of them has been pwned because I have not transact those into cold wallet. Dealing with cold wallet may be also not easy especially if you do not have enough backups. So, you have saved your earnings and still use to think you have done something wrong?

You have not grok what you've been read if you are talking only about stocks but not about algos. Also you are not going to participate in cryptocurrency economics because you are not talking about it as well. Believe me, you are totally right about not investing in the things you have not understood.

I can give you an example similar to your one. It was when MMA fight Khabib vs Conor was happening. I knew that Khabib will win and the market used to have an opposite coefficients. I have a friend who has bet $1k for Khabib and who has received $1.6k - but these are not my money because I am totally noob in bets and MMA.

pid-1 4 years ago |

Certainly during your lifetime you also thought about stuff that turned out to be wrong, but you don't kick yourself about those.

Even if you actually get some big market event right, you are bound to lose everything when you get something wrong eventually.

When you bet one time, there is some chance of winning or losing. If you bet continuously on something when the odds are against you, the probability of losing converges to 100%.

liberia 4 years ago | |

Worth reading about the Kelly Criterion: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

pid-1 4 years ago | | |

I'm sceptical non professional (and most professional) investors have sufficient information to apply it properly.

altdataseller 4 years ago |

This sounds like hindsight bias. Of course, looking back at these things, they are missed no-brainer opportunities.

But back then, there was probably a lot more uncertainty. Ethereum could have easily become a $0 like 99% of other coins.