Tesla AI Day 2022(youtube.com) |
Tesla AI Day 2022(youtube.com) |
I imagine it will need an impressive amount of safety features.
But any walking robot especially at that height and size is a significant engineering achievement.
And they have been working on it for months rather than years. And the system is entirely electric unlike Boston Dynamics.
The last demo was a person in a suit.
Your expectations were unrealistic if you are not impressed.
Nobody would first look at that and then want to get into a self driving car built by the same company.
There's some kind of mass delusion going on.
This was amazing by this with the short time it's been in development, and the vision for this project is beyond anything that has been done with humanoid robots. Sure they might fail, but it's an exciting venture to follow.
I actually think Tesla showed more than I expected.
At least we now start the rat race for robots.
This is also an electric motor robot vs pneumatic actuators from BD.
And it’s assuming that there’s actually a market for humanoid robots. Other than futurology folks getting excited about that form factor, there’s no real market for it, and research shows that humanoids robots are almost never a most optimal answer.
Tesla is going for volume and just started.
Because it doesn’t.
Most robotics as far as I understand are designed to be specific to a set of tasks, and the design is optimized around that, thus no other industrial robots look exactly like humans, as far as I am aware. Are they being too ambitious, and romantic, in trying to design a robot that does too much while looking like a human?
Probably there is a bit of "too ambitious, and romantic" going on too.
I see their reasoning as something like that they have a lot of batteries motors processors and AI software lying around from doing cars. It would be kinda fun for a few engineers to try to put those bits in humanoid robot form. Who knows maybe it'll work, maybe it'll help the stock price. There isn't that much cost as they had most of the resources already.
What would help the development would be a "standard" hardware platform one can just buy and add own code.
Are ethics discussed in the presentation?
Social equity?
Watching now ... it's 3hrs .. looking for ethics consideration.
.. ok he simplifies what an Economy is, to the theoretical. Can an economy be one which frees marginalized people from poverty? I'm skeptical and hope Tesla has an Economist, on stage, shortly. Musk is claiming good intention, explicitly.
Q: So, who does this? Who is planning future economies where marginalized groups are even further marginalized?
Edit: down voting is perplexing, it's a reasonable topic for discussion given the significance of this tech neutralizing Labor.
Edit 2: we should have qualms about technology that disrupts sensitive populations. I have no qualms about introduction of things like Docker which disrupted the people who wrote lots of crazy scripts to help deployment of crazy configurations to process data on collections of servers. The key is the marginalized community, who is not in a position to be able to pivot because they are marginalized.
That’s obviously ridiculous. They went and did more productive things in the store. The same will apply here.
I think it's reasonable to consider the chance a fully mobile non-human humanoid will actually disrupt labor more so than the invention of a shopping cart.
I'm talking about marginalized people who are under educated and have very good reason to believe that they are not a part of the broader society, black and brown people. This is a real group of people.
Take away their labor opportunity and they're not going to suddenly become managers. Maybe someone will train them so that they become robot repair technicians or something else which hasn't been a likely to be automated.
Who is thinking about this for them? They're certainly not thinking about it because they don't think they belong in this society, already, based on how they are actively marginalized, based on evidence.
So it's left up to us as technologists to think about the societal impact of the technology that we're working on.
Edit: furthermore, I have worked in a grocery store and it was not great. I had to go out of my way to engage with people, to get some of that juicy worthwhile socialization, because the job was to move stuff around. Move new blocks of cheese into the freezing cold open refrigerators. Move purchased groceries from the cash register to people's cars. Move carts from the parking lot back into the store. Not great labor. So having a personal shopper job would be awesome by comparison.
But this is a recruiting / technical event, so you won't find more ethics considerations in the rest of the video probably.
This has a dramatic impact on society. It's not just like a new GPU technology. This is labor.
Consideration for disrupting labor inequity is going to get worse.
The fact that the money people who own Tesla stock are supposedly in charge is a distraction.
Stock owners don't have motivation to make a long-term socially equitable product.
The constituents are lobbyists and poorly organized under-unionized civilians.
So, I don't expect the government to meaningfully produce any accommodation ahead of time, at least in the United States.
Therefore it's up to us as technologists who effectively represents the brains of Tesla, to do that ethical thinking.
Up and running android, big money, fast development.
In most other places we are switching away from hydroponics because electronics are getting so advanced.
Electronic actuators is defiantly cheaper and simpler so for a consumer product its seems to be the right choice.
But anyway it was just a general question. It doesn't seem self evident to me that electric motors are 'better' so I was just wanting someone to chime in and explain.
Are Model S owners making more money than they are paying in leases thanks to lending their cars as auto cabs like Elon promised they would by 2020?
Is hyper loop even a thing or just something Elon admitted was something he came up with to try and kill public transport alternatives?
The Boston Dynamics Robot is far more of a commercial reality than the CyberTruck if you really want to put things in context.
Why do people only ever compare Tesla efforts to Elon expecations.
How many other companies have cars driving around in pretty much every environment on north America? Their competitors have a totally different approach and limit themselves to a few fixed locations that they map out in extreme detail first.
If you take all self driving cars in the world and put them at random locations in the US and tell them to drive somewhere I don't think any company will do better much better then Tesla.
I'm not really a fan of self driving but just clowning Tesla for not reaching the goals set by Elon isn't really interesting or insightful.
> Is hyper loop even a thing or just something Elon admitted was something he came up with to try and kill public transport alternatives?
Hyper loop was never a product. Musk even explicitly stated that it wouldn't be a product anytime soon. He explicitly state they did some evaluation on it and would release an engineering blue paper. This was literally stated outright at the time.
I really don't get the logic 'I wont do X but I find X interesting' and the response a few years later is 'Fuck you, you promised to do X and it didn't happen'. Like that makes people sound insane.
And he never said it was to kill public transport. That was a single news article where a journalist took Musk words out of context to spin his own story.
And people who think California High Speed Rail is failing because of Musk is fucking delusional anyway.
> The Boston Dynamics Robot is far more of a commercial reality than the CyberTruck if you really want to put things in context.
That is totally absurd comparison that makes no sense and illustrates nothing.
Not really sure about the hyperloop / train thingy, need to read up more on it.
And BD's robot is not a commercial reality, how many have sold (if we're talking about Atlas and not the dog)? The Cybertruck will start production next year, sure it's behind initial time-schedule but it will be produced and sold in high numbers.
This seems like a nonsensical swing at Tesla. They have literally 100000s of people on the road with FSD in all of the US.
Claiming that its a few influences is just outright lying.
You are also totally wrong in your understanding of how Tesla FSD works. They are not mapping those areas, save those maps and make them available to other cars. That is explicitly not what they are doing.
More accurate to say that they are building a training set with the input from 100000s of cars driving around literally all over the US.
1. 160k people have bought and recieved FSD Beta at somewhere between $5 and $15k (today's price). Let's say an average of $8k, that means $1.28 billion. More have bought it but are waiting to get access.
2. FSD take rate is estimated as of now to be around 7% of vehicles sold world-wide. At the current price of $15k and the estimated 1.4 million vehicles sold this year, that amounts to $1.47 billion.
Numbers are rough estimates, 50% of revenue is held in reserve until FSD is out of beta, and many haven't received the beta yet, still by any measure they are making and will make billions. What you personally think of the product, or if you think Elon is a "snake oil salesman" is not really relevant.
To strong arm any counter argument, it's possible that all these buyers will realize it actually sucks/doesn't work, sue the company and the whole thing falls apart, but I don't see any indication of it. There are plenty of unhappy and happy customers with FSD, but they've clearly found something that people are willing to pay a lot for and many are happy with it. Clearly it needs to improve much further in order to sell this to the wider public beyond people who think it's fun to babysit an AI.
Same as Tesla's FSD and 100% vision based. Is it crude too? I thought it was state of the art…
You say this confidently, but it is nowhere close to true.
Literally no invention, not this robot by Tesla certainly, would ever have even 5% of the impact the tracks and other farm tools had.
So I think it's worthwhile to consider the ethical impact, if the projected success of this robot comes true.
Bringing race into this is nonsense. If the robots are taking jobs, do you think they care what color someone is? They don't. And it's literally going to come for everyone's current job. Which is a good thing, so long as we have an economic system that evolves alongside it. This is quite literally the only way to eliminate poverty in totality.
I argue that different races are impacted differently by different technology disruptors.
Specifically when a robot replaces a manual labor job in a warehouse in Fremont then I believe that's more likely to impact a black or brown human.
Eliminating poverty won't come around for a long time. Just because there's cheaper labor does not mean that humans who are displaced by that cheap labor are going to somehow get free money.
Bonus diversity stats for Fremont: "Tesla publishes its first diversity report, here are the key numbers" https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/12/04/tesla-publishes-its-firs...
They seem to have a real issue actually shipping. Partly because Elon is incapable of understanding realistic timeframes.
It sure will be interesting to see where FSD & Teslabot is in a couple of years. The pace of innovation is extremely high at Tesla and should make you wonder what Boston Dynamics, Waymo and others have been up to for all these years.
How can you look at what they showed yesterday after the rest of the world has made things 109x more capable and conclude that they are innovators in the space?
Even the rando Chinese companies have done a better job cloning spot mini than this.
Just like million robo taxis in 2020 :-)
It's still crazy to me that people are paying all this money now for a product that still isn't delivering the promises of 5 years ago though.
The criticism of Tesla is always devoid of context of the rest of the car industry.
Like ignoring how poor your breakdown is over it making 'billions' they've been hit by wave after wave of bad PR. Like the various videos and lawsuits over how poor their quality control is and how many lies they've peddled over FSD.
There has been one "recall" of FSD, which was for including the option to do a rolling stop at stop signs. They fixed this with an OTA update at the request of NHTSA. Total cost: a few dollars
> Or the fact that there are lawsuits over how FSD doesn't work?
Show me the lawsuits that have been lost and how much the damages were
> Or any number of accidents caused by FSD being clearly buggy?
FSD requires supervision, as such accidents are currently the responsibility of the driver. Even so, besides minor accidents there haven't been any confirmed crashes or anyone being hurt yet. With 160k cars on the road you'd expect worse. And again, this doesn't affect how much money they've made in selling the software.
> Like the various videos and lawsuits over how poor their quality control
You mean the video created by Dan O'Dowd of Green Hill Software, a competitor in automated car software?
Your hate doesn't change the numbers. Maybe you're right and everything comes crashing down, who knows. But this is the current reality.
You realize that makes no sense?
And while some of his lies are just to kill competition/extract money from the rich (like FSD), but some are just disgusting.
With neuralink he was openly telling people for few years that his implants will solve their health issues. Implants that killed most of the monkeys in the labs.
It’s disgusting to lie to people with really serious health conditions, give them false hope and likely have them reject other treatments, because Elon said he’ll fix them. You don’t think it’s a good reason to pour some hate at him?
He has invested mostly his own money in that.
Are you claiming there is no medical use what so ever for the technology they are developing?
Based on what knowlage do you make that claim?
> Implants that killed most of the monkeys in the labs.
What data is that based on?
> It’s disgusting to lie to people with really serious health conditions, give them false hope and likely have them reject other treatments, because Elon said he’ll fix them.
What? I have heard most of Neurolinks presentation and not a single time did Elon ever suggest that people just delay other treatments. Neurolink has clearly mostly done animal trials and product demonstrations.
I at least have never heard Musk claim that Neurolink would have a product on the market within a short time period.
Please provide sources for these claims?
These are not contradictory statements.
Unfortunately he chose his intelligence to enrich himself by fooling others. He could have chosen other options. It looked like that was the direction he was going in. By trying to help people. But it’s clear at some point he realized he can make far more money claiming to do something than by actually doing something and decided to focus on that.
You make it sound like he's selling ads online or something, not building rockets and electric cars, self-driving software and now robots? Like, if you wanted to make as much money as possible and "fool" people as you say, doing a rocket company and a new car company at the same time, pouring all the $100m you earned from selling your previous company, being months from bankruptcy in both ventures seem like a very roundabout and stressful way of becoming a billionaire.
I don't understand where you people get your world view from, are you exclusively reading click-bait news headlines and coming to the conclusion that Elon=Bad? How about reading some actual accounts of the early days at SpaceX for example? I can recommend "Liftoff", it's very balanced, focuses mostly on the employees of SpaceX and doesn't try to paint Elon as some kind of heroic figure, but gives credit where it's due. He comes off as a highly technical, maniacal, single-minded founder, inspiring but working his staff to the bones, and sure, also has some darker sides to his personality. It's the kind of personality that's required to pull these things off.