Why Twitter didn’t go down: From a real Twitter SRE(matthewtejo.substack.com) |
Why Twitter didn’t go down: From a real Twitter SRE(matthewtejo.substack.com) |
The problem is not that things will break. Things break ALL the time. The problem is more about avoiding cascading effects and the time it takes to fix stuff.
Presumably in the turmoil nobody is deploying new code. Sure shit happens, but i imagine that twitter is mature enough that they aren't having weekly critical incidents, especially during times where nothing is changing.
I still think twitter is going to have some disaster, but give it a few weeks.
Keep it running? One part-time should surely do it?
https://lichess.org/blog/Y3u1mRAAACIApBVn/settlement-reached...
Speaking as an experienced single tech founder.
With configuration error, or failed software update everything can go down at once, or there are cascades of restarts that kill the system.
I think people just miss seeing the fail-whale graphic.
I wonder how many reading this are starting to feel nervous about their own roles.
Some of the side effects of that:
- Trends are not working correctly.
- Copyright reporting is not working.
- Appealing flagged tweets isn't being responded to.
It's only a matter of time before these get abused with no one to fix them.
"Trends" were subject to Twitter's "trends blacklist" before; something that leaked a few years ago. Maybe they're working correctly now that they're unencumbered. Can you describe how they're not working now?
>- Appealing flagged tweets isn't being responded to.
Mine was responded to in a handful of hours. Much faster than I was expecting.
>It's only a matter of time before these get abused with no one to fix them.
"the walls are closing in" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLEchPZm318
The team would moderate junk trends. So some of the trends are literally just random words being spouted. Similar to early day twitter.
> Mine was responded to in a handful of hours.
Recently? That's impressive when the related teams are gone.
> "the walls are closing in"
I am not sure what a YT video about Trump has to do with my comment.
I refer you "in comments": https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
And even if Twitter lost 50% of it users and revenues, it is still more profitable than have to pay the salary of 7000 people.
Twitter revenue last year was around $5B.
Twitter has around 200 million daily user, peaking up to a billion, running on their own server farm. They are not remotely comparable, especially if we note that read-write dbs are notoriously hard to scale.
otoh, to get an automation going is like climbing mount everest the first time? very hard but makes it easier to scale subsequent attempts?
^ is a snark. I'm not suggesting that they should..
Till now, he's fired a lot of engineers probably because:
a) he doesn't need so many. b) he thinks he can do the job himself.
At some point the engin’s fluids will run out and need topping off. There's a warning system though so someone'll get notified before the engine blows up, so it's entirely possible this hardcore crew of H1Bs pulls it off. (Great job replacing the SSL cert!) At some point the train’s boiler will need retrofitting. A new team could successfully replace the boiler, but doing it while the engine keeps running just isn't an easy job.
The handful of devs and SREs at Twitter will do their damnedest to keep the train, err, site running. They might even succeed. That doesn’t prove the site was over-engineered, it means they built a damn fine train engined that successfully pulled the whole train up and over the mountain pass.
Twitter wasn't run like a lean start-up type business. Because wasn’t one. Society needs better than that. The vulture capitalism mindset is what's wrong with this county. What's the barest minimum I can pay people to work for me? Not; what can I pay them to let them live prosperous lives but what's the bare, subsistence minimum.
America needs a middle class and these people were part of it. You don’t get a middle class by injudiciously paring things down to a not-even-skeleton crew that’s going to be worked till they burn out, only to get fired.
Twitter was only $14 million from profitability in Q2, and any idiot can randomly fire people to find that much in that large an organization, but cutting costs like that is to misunderstand the situation entirely. Just like starving yourself isn't healthy and won’t improve your self image, randomly cutting costs like that saves money, but doesn’t result in a healthy business.
What would be a realistic fine in terms of damages (in $$)?
You could argue its actually negative damages.
She was assistant to the gender health support board.
Twitter is going to be here for a long long time. It's not going to suddenly shut down, it's not going to slowly decline, there is not going to be mass abandonment.
Elon might be cocky, but at the end of the day he is a successful businessman. He didn't just sent out that loyalty pledge email out of cockyness. He really wanted to kick out everyone who doesn't believe in him and his beliefs. And he sent that email well after understanding how Twitter runs and putting his loyal people from Tesla ans SpaceX in charge of operations.
The woke crowd needs to get out of denial and start coping with the fact that Twitter is not the bastion of unopposed woke ideology anymore.
So instead of actually doing any sort of real tangible action to solve problems, you mostly spend your time denouncing your enemies, including the ones in your own ranks that are not pure enough.
It's very much associated with the left-wing parties in many Western countries, who have for the most part traded their historical defense of working classes for this new brand of performative progressive politics.
Somehow, some folks are now saying this is bad.
Millions of political moderates are stopping by to see what happens when a large-scale public forum begins to tolerate freedom of speech.
The site was also consumed in horrific discourse for the last week (topic being "is making chili for your neighbor racist, ableist and oppressing autistic people?") so all in all it seems to behaving as usual.
That got a Spanish politician (Francisco José Contreras) banned.
moves like musk's are bad for the industry. they produce more systems with "job security" built in.
How common is this?
1) take private
2) fire/layoff until things break, patch up / rehire with cheaper labor. Repeat as necessary
3) spit shine/repackage what's left with a theoretically more appealing balance sheet.
4) resell to another sucker...uh, buyer, or take public again.
Fundamentally Musk bought 44 billion for 5 billion of annual revenue, and presumably 5 billion in costs. Unlikely to add revenue in twitter's model, he's cutting costs.
Honestly, at this point, is there revolutionary technology that is needed to keep the lights on at twitter? Do you need graphQL gods and SREs that would ace any Amazon raising the bar and master of silicon valley interviewing?
Nah. He'll honestly probably outsource a ton of the upkeep.
It's ugly, but the Twitter board and shareholders took their money and ran, and abandoned the product and the workforce. They could have backed out and let Elon Musk off the hook of his dumb contract with them, but they just wanted the money, and sold to someone that just wants to get his money out of it too.
But yes, this is very bad execution of the PE playbook.
Like, I like my car, but would probably sell it for an order of magnitude its worth.
I would be surprised that no company in the west take advanced of that.
2000 miles and a language barrier do not help things.
I imagine the site will mostly continue to more-or-less work, despite all the layoffs. They still have thousands of staff. The network effect of Twitter is so big that people will continue to use it even if fail whales become more common. Others suggest that it will soon crash and burn, or that Musk will get bored and sell it for a few billion. Or that Musk is a genius who will make some sort of amazing Twitter 2.0 that does for social media what Tesla did for electric cars. But without any appealing long term vision, and with an owner who bought it to satisfy their ego rather than with any real plan, the reality may be more boring. I imagine it will just languish for many years, with occasional manufactured drama, and occasional downtime, but no real innovation. Maybe to be eventually supplanted by something else in 10 years or so.
Based on texts exposed via the lawsuit about the purchase, I don't think this is the case. I don't think he, or his advisors, understand that the product at twitter (and other social media) is content moderation. You can have a vision of whatever type of content or pricing scheme you want but without solid content moderation you will lose advertisers, gain lawsuits (people were posting movies the other day) and lose users because the "feed" becomes a muddied mess. Users are only really the product when you can moderate their content to have profit via advertisers.
Within most companies you don’t want to pause innovation.
That said, it takes some time to get to know the real workings of a company, knowledge required to select the right 50%.
That said, afaict the current mo is keep the lights on for the current offering while a new team builds a new product for that enormous user base that offers something much more profitable.
Having worked as SRE on efficiency projects for BigCo, it is not at all uncommon to recover more than your lifetime salary in company savings with only a few months work or even less. The scale of things is so immense that even a slightly better handling of things can lead to outsize returns.
Laying off someone like that, rather than putting them on full-time efficiency work, is an obvious waste.
I would say this; Twitter at this scale is extremely complicated. We don’t have enough information to know what all these roles were doing and how many were truly superfluous. The article gives an interesting insight into something extremely complicated- it might be a slice repeated in a lot of areas. I’m of the opinion that you can do a lot more with less but there’s no need to send emails to everyone in the organisation being an arsehole and essentially accusing them of being lazy, then rehiring people who never worked there just for the meme.
Anyway Musk will blow up some rockets, put enormous pressure on people to fix them, and come up smelling of roses again even if he treats a load of people like crap along the way. His fans will say he’s a genius and his enemies will say he’s a dickhead. And so it goes.
Seeing lots of comments like this. Why do you feel it’s ok to say that, when you don’t actually work there or have intimate knowledge of who is currently working there? The pure speculation and nonsense surrounding Twitter at the moment is plain awful.
A lot of the "Twitter could be run off my laptop" style comments seem to come from people who run, effectively, Read-Only services. They might serve data at thousands of queries per second but the data itself is _slow_. It is video files or music streams or other data that updates infrequently or, if there is dynamic data involved, it comes from a very small number of fixed sources.
Twitter deals with thousands of posts per second that are subject to huge fluctuations in the density _and_ those posts have to be disseminated to the millions of users. Twitter is a two sided problem.
Twitter processes roughly 10K tweets per second. Even if you bloat out the text quite a lot to account for encoding overheads, metadata, etc, etc... and assume that each one is 10KB, then this is just 1 Gbps. A single NIC on an old server.
Okay, I get it, Twitter needs a lot of data too. Lists of users, etc...
Twitter has 450 million monthly active users, which sounds like a lot, but even if there's 1MB of profile data per user such as who they are following, that's just 400 TB.
That's... not that much these days. A large-but-not-enormous database cluster.
Sure, there's "historical" data, but that can be compressed and put on cheap cold storage, like S3 or whatever.
Give me a few million annually as an opex budget, a small team of decent developers, and I can guarantee you I could whip up a cloud-hosted service that can process tweets at Twitter's scale.
Obviously, what I can't replicate is the much larger set of tools and systems behind the scenes that are used for moderation, analytics, ad sales, etc...
Twitter is both sides. Tweets are replicated out in milliseconds. Twitter search is lightning fast, comprehensiveband powerful. o Old tweets are not just glaciered into S3!
> For four of those years I was the sole SRE for the Cache team. There was a few before me, and the whole team I worked with, where a bunch came and went. But for four years I was the one responsible for automation, reliability and operations in the team. I designed and implemented most of the tools that are keeping it running so I think I’m qualified to talk about it. (There might be only one or two other people)
If you only need one person for the caching department (which is, as I understand, is critical as it delivers most of the data); then maybe you need a handful other dozen engineers and there you have a functional Twitter.
That or the OP is full of himself. Kinda like Musk?
But who believes those 12 engineers still work there? The author of this specific item is in fact not there any more.
And a lot of other people are needed to bring in revenue, don't you think? Nobody is paying for a beautiful caching system.
It's like if I doubled my weight in the last ten years. Half of me is bloat, and yet, there is no possibility bisection will improve my health.
The cache clusters size are also described here for anyone who wants a good technical read over speculation. https://www.usenix.org/system/files/osdi20-yang.pdf
A horse, of course, is not same as a reduction in force.
Engineers don't eat hay, neither does a horse have a 401(k).
I suspected that the hopes and fears of Twitter’s quick demise were overstated and shared[0] some of those thoughts last week, on Twitter of course.
Also hi from another infrastructure person in SD!
0 - https://twitter.com/bitsandhops/status/1593637241527578625
Edit: also the reason Musk wants to shut down all those microservices has nothing to do with money, it's that he doesn't have enough manpower to maintain them. If Twitter is like most non FAANG out there those "microservices" are coupled with each other, so good luck.
Too bad I did not bother to save the link.
Linux doesn’t upgrade itself.
the web is very standards based.
Hacker news has pretty much been running for decades on the same software hardware stack
I'm pretty surprised to see the occasional redditesque "Elon is an idiot" rhetoric on hn tho.
There will be a necessary breaking change that there will be no support for that will cascade into the downtime the media is demanding at the moment.
Also, I find it pretty interesting how this is playing out so far.
I'm starting to think that Mr. Enron Musk is going to pull this off.
It's a little thing, but it's the little things that cascade into big things that require teams of people to fix. Here, we see this person who's quite proud of his automations making the simple, but harmless error of using a possessive instead of a plural. Humans are good at reading through this sort of thing.
Computers are not. Somewhere deep in all his scripts is a misplaced ', `, or ’ waiting to break something.
I haven’t worked on Twitter-scale products. But I do wonder if it’s safe to draw a straight line between services that have middling and large scales. Things don’t necessarily work the same at the extremes.
Reddit needs to implement this if they want to get to the next level.
Writing a program to store a list of servers to be swapped instead of keeping them in a spreadsheet sounds a bit like buying a brewery when you want to drink 1 beer. Program used by a team of one sounds like over-engineering.
No you didn't. You made a bet and got your bluff called.
The biggest thing that brings down a site is changes. Typically code changes, but also schema/data changes, infra/network/config changes, etc. As long as nothing changes, and you don't run out of disk space (from logs for example), things stay working pretty much just fine. The trick is to design it to be as immutable and simple as possible.
There are other things that can bring a site down, like security issues, or bugs triggered by unusual states, too much traffic, etc. But generally speaking those things are rare and don't bring down an entire site.
The last thing off the top of my head that will absolutely bring a site down over time, is expired certs. If, for any reason at all, a cert fails to be regenerated (say, your etcd certs, or some weird one-off tool underpinning everything that somebody has to remember to regen every 360 days), they will expire, and it will be a very fun day at the office. Over a long enough period of time, your web server's TLS version will be obsoleted in new browser versions, and nobody will be able to load it.
You're totally right; if you don't make changes to the software, it's unlikely to spontaneously stop working, especially after that first 6-12 months of "hardening" where bugs are found and patched.
Many people working in tech have never been exposed to a piece of software which isn't being constantly changed in small increments and forced upon end users. People are assuming that software is inherently unstable simply because they never use anything that isn't a "cloud service".
This probably comes off as "old man yells at cloud" but I'm not trying to bash cloud here. The cloud/SaaS approach has a ton of advantages for both consumers and businesses. But the average tech person in their 20s vastly underestimates how stable software can be when you aren't constantly pushing new features.
Like maybe 8 years later I found out it was still humming along happily, without really even a sysadmin attending to it, on a single workstation using consumer hardware, servicing the company that had grown tenfold in size.
It blew my mind it still just worked all these years.
There's also the stability of third party systems: forced deprecations, security EOL, etc. The cert expiration stuff people have been mentioning is in this category too. I wouldn't be surprised if something does slip through the cracks at Twitter in the next 4 or 6mo.
My friend in college would just go into Wordpress admin panels and the like by using common exploits because nobody updated PHP on their VPSes back then.
As someone who spent most of their career to date as a front-end developer I learned that as long as they have the budget, stakeholders are insatiable. It's just that ten years ago most of their ideas were either technically not feasible or very expensive.
Nowadays browsers are much more capable, so the pressure to produce more features is much greater.
To our own peril, we can do much more now.
Today, it's false to assume that fire and forget releasing will work even for standalone Windows binaries.
You dont have to push constant updates for a cloud / SaaS product - many chose to - but ultimately you dont have to.
A year of 'no new features' should be something customers and vendor alike benefit from.
The solution, rather than investing time in fixing the memory leak, was to add a cron job that would kill/reset the process every three days. This was easier and more foolproof than adding any sort of intelligent monitoring around it. I think an engineer added the cron job in the middle of the night after getting paged, and it stuck around forever... at least for the 6 years I was there, and it was still running when I left.
We couldn't fix the leak because the team that made it had been let go and we were understaffed, so nobody had the time to go and learn how it worked to fix it. It wasn't a critical enough piece of infrastructure to rewrite, but it was needed for a few features that we had.
// Fix Slow Memory Leaks
setTimeout(() => process.exit(1), 1000 * 60 * 60 * 24)For a social media / user-generated content application, the macro storage concerns are a lot more important than the micro ones. By this I mean, care more about overall fleet-wide capacity for product DBs and media storage, instead of caring about a single server filling up its disk with logs.
With UGC applications, product data just grows and grows, forever, never shrinking. Even if the app becomes less popular over time, the data set will still keep growing -- just more slowly than before.
Even if your database infrastructure has fully automated sharding, with bare metal hosting you still need to keep doing capacity planning and acquiring new database hardware. If no one is doing this, it's game over, there's simply nowhere to store new tweets (or new photos, or whichever infra tier runs out of hardware first...)
Staffing problems in other eng areas can exacerbate this. For example, if automated bot detection becomes inadequate, bot posting volume goes way up and takes up an increasing amount of storage space.
From today's Casey Newton's newsletter:
In early December, a number of Twitter’s security certificates are set to expire — particularly those that power various back-end functions of the site. (“Certs,” as they are usually called, serve to reassure users that the website they are visiting is authentic. Without proper certs, a modern web browser will refuse to establish the connection or warn users not to visit the site). Failure to renew these certs could make Twitter inaccessible for most users for some period of time.
We’re told by some members of Twitter’s engineering team that the people responsible for renewing these certs have largely resigned — raising concerns that Twitter’s site could go down without the people on hand to bring it back. Others have told us that the renewal process is largely automated, and such a failure is highly unlikely. But the issue keeps coming up in conversations we have with current and former employees.
In my experience as a data engineer, unusual states are one of the leading causes of issues, at least after something is built for the first time. You can spend half a year running into weird corner cases like "this thing we assumed had to always be a number apparently can arbitrarily get filled in with a string, now everything is broken."
Also, conditions changing causing code changes is the norm, not the exception, definitely in the beginning but also often later. Most services aren't written and done - they evolve as user needs evolve and the world evolves.
Aren't these changes inevitable, though? There is no such thing as bug free code.
Another thing that forces consistent code changes is compliance reasons- any time a 0-day is discovered or some library we're using comes out with a critical fix, we would have to go update things that hadn't been touched sometimes in years.
At my last job, I spent a significant amount of time just re-learning how to update and deploy services that somebody who left the company years ago wrote, usually with little-to-no documentation. And yes, things broke when we would deploy the service anew, but we were beholden to government agencies to make the changes or else lose our certifications to do business with them.
Eventually, Twitter will have to push code changes, if only to patch security vulnerabilities. Just waiting for another Heartbleed to come around...
Something from the 70s works perfectly fine, except it can't run on anything bare any longer, and the hard drives etc. have all long since failed or their PSU capacitors have blown....so Twitter will absolutely rot, how fast depends on several factors.
I personally suspect the infrastructure used to build Twitter will rot faster than Twitter itself, and of course the largest most dramatic source of rot is the power required to run it - several large communities have abandoned it already, making it less much less relevant, meaning the funding for it will also dry up, meaning more wasted cpu cycles and the like.
Thats of course assuming its left in some sort of limbo, it doesnt sound like thats the case with the current management, its only a matter of time before it topples over from shitty low-rate contractor code. Honestly, the app worked like so much hot garbage already, I could see it falling over itself and imploding with a couple poorly placed loops...
Security fixes.
Simple example: you have a DB with a table with an auto incrementing table. You chose a small integer type for the primary key and after years this just worked fine, you finally saturate that integer type you can no longer insert rows in the table. Imagine now this has cascading effects in other systems that depend on this database indirectly and you end up with an "outage"
Absolutely agreed. In that vein, there is such a thing as too much automation. Sometimes, build chains are set up to always pull in the newest and the freshest -- and given the staggering number of dependencies software generally has, this might mean, small changes all the time. Even when your code does not change, it can eventually break.
It's been my experience that a notable part of software development (in the cloud age, anyway) is about keeping up with all the small incremental changes. It takes bodies to keep up with this churn, bodies which twitter now does not have.
It'll be interesting to keep observing this. So far it's been a testament to the teams that built it and set up the infra -- it keeps running, despite a monkey loose in a server room. It's very impressive.
* Power outages and general acts of God
* Resource utilization
How do your databases perform when their CPUs are near capacity? Or disks? Or I/O? I've seen Postgres do some "weird s%$#": where query times don't go exponential but they go hockey stick.
* Fan-out and fan-in
These can peg CPU, RAM, I/O. Peg any one of these and you're in trouble. Even run close to capacity for any one of these and you're liable to experience heisenbugs. Troublesome fan-out and fan-in can sometimes be a result of...
* Unintended consequences
The engineering decision made months or years ago may have been perfectly legitimate for the knowledge available at the time. However, we live in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world; conditions change. If your inputs deviate qualitatively or quantitatively significantly, you risk resource utilization issues or, possibly, good ol' fashioned application errors.
"No battle plan survives contact with the enemy." -- Stormin' Norman
Same with software systems. They're living entities that can only maintain homeostasis so long as their environment remains predictable within norms. Deviate far enough from that and boom.
You can't do this without a lot of people. Sure you could pare it down, maybe improve some architecture, but without a ton of people involved who understand the systems and how they connect, when things might go south they may never return.
So yeah, I totally agree with you. No code changes = long life.
I agree with your assessment, but I do want to highlight that this condition is not rare for Twitter. Load is very spiky, sometimes during predictable periods (e.g., the World Cup, New Year's Eve) and sometimes during unpredictable periods (e.g., Queen Elizabeth II's death, the January 6th US Capitol attack). It isn't going to cause a total site failure (anymore), but it can degrade user experience in subtle or not-so-subtle ways.
An aside on the "anymore", there was a time when the entire site did go down due to high-traffic events. A lot of the complication in the infrastructure was built to add resiliency and scalability to the backend services to allow Twitter to handle these events more gracefully. That resiliency is going to help keep the services up even if maintenance is understaffed and behind a learning curve.
1) Best case: Monitoring of the service checks for service degradation outside of a sliding window. In this case, more than X percent of responses are not 2xx or 3xx. After a given time period (say, 30 minutes of this) the service can be restarted automatically. This allows you to auto-heal the service for any given "degradation" coming from that service itself. (This does not detect upstream degradation, of course, so everything upstream needs its own monitoring and autohealing, which is difficult to figure out, because it might be specific to this one service. The development/product team needs to put more thought into this in order to properly detect it, or use something like chaos engineering to see the problem and design a solution)
2) If you have a health check on the service (that actually queries the service, not just hits a static /healthcheck endpoint that always returns 200 OK), and a memory leak has caused the service to stop responding (but not die), the failed health check can trigger an automatic service restart.
3) The memory leak makes the process run out of memory and die, and the service is automatically restarted.
4) Ghetto engineering: Restart the service every few days or N requests. This extremely dumb method works very well, until you get so much traffic that it starts dying well before the restart, and you notice that your service just happens to go down on regular intervals for no reason.
5) The failed health check (if it exists) is not set up to trigger a restart, so when the service stops responding due to memory leak (but doesn't exit) the service just sits there broken.
6) Worst case: Nothing is configured to restart the service at all, so it just sits there broken.
If you do the best practice and put dynamic monitoring, a health check, and automatic restart in place, the service will self-heal in the face of memory leaks.
At least for expired certs, most people have learned the hard way just how bad that is, and either implemented automated renewal (thank to heavens for cert-manager, LetsEncrypt, AWS ACM and friends) or where that doesn't work (MS AD...) monitoring.
Now, those change freezes even extended to preventative maintenance, one of the dual PSUs in a core switch went bad and we couldn't get an exception to replace it... for 6 months. We got an exception when the second one went down and we had to move a few connections to its still alive mate.
Well, Elon is talking about a massive amount of changes coming down the pipe, so I guess we'll see how that goes!
I was partly expecting the rest of the article to explain to me why exactly it wasn't just bloat. But it goes on talking about this 1~3-person cache SRE team that built solid infra automation that's really resilient to both hardware and software failures. If anything, the article might actually persuade me that it was all bloat.
In terms of changes to the Platform ditto. It's not difficult to make these changes that a team of 100's of devs who are not 100% aware of what's there already can't figure it out. I've taken over systems that I knew very little of and were pretty big (not as big as twitter) and I managed for years to make changes without drastically breaking stuff. In any event if they do break stuff they will be able to fix what they have broken.
No, the real failure here is the massive debt burden and the fact that there is no way that twitter can ever service that amount of debt. Note that before EM took over it was ticking along with a relatively small loss. If they had cut headcount by maybe 10% they would have been break even easily. There is no way that's possible with $4million of interest per day. They have to radically change the way they monetise the platform to get to that level. I don't think they will ever get there and Musk will sell off at a bargain basement price at some point in the future to pay back the debt.
Elon thinks he knows what he’s doing, but what he is going to be left with are people who are willing to work hard by his standards, but not necessarily smart.
The simple truth is Elon knows nothing about the actual work involved in tech. He knows words or elicits help from others on what to say that sounds like tech speak (RPCs!), but when it comes to being truly knowledgeable in this space, he is losing his most valuable assets because of his amazingly poor managerial and ownership style.
I know there are a lot of Elon fans on this site, and will disagree with all of this; but his abilities have not at all been proven. Yes, he knows how to spend money to claim credit for technical advances, but until he actually has his hands dirty in the muck of the hard work of tech, he will always be a glorified self-promoter with no substance.
And Twitter will suffer for it.
You can get rid of 80% of the work force and the existing homeostasis systems will keep things running smoothly despite known day-to-day chaos.
Where you’re really going to run into trouble is inventing responses to novel chaos and gradually changing times.
What did you make of Mudge's report regarding resiliency of data-centers?
> Insufficient data center redundancy, 59 without a plan to cold-boot or recover from even minor overlapping data center failure, raising the risk of a brief outage to that of a catastrophic and existential risk for Twitter's survival.
- https://techpolicy.press/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/whistleb...
All 10 of the "top trends" for me were about how twitter was dead/dying and armchair experts on reddit said it was only a matter of hours at this point.
Maybe it was close (in reference to external factors not implied in your very insightful post!) but its amazing how confident people are with opinions on events they have 0 insight into. Everyone knows how to solve the war in Ukraine or world hunger but how rare is the "consensus" (in terms of up-votes or popularity) right... just something that got me thinking. Thanks again for this article. I always love seeing details of tech ops!
https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/15945006557246095... (screenshot: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/aboxwithrocksinit/test-buc...)
If this is the new town square, you can forward my mail to a cabin in the woods.
Maybe the guy is really losing it
- Twitter is going to go down tomorrow and it's all over. RIP.
The second is, - Twitter is going to experience a failure cascade over time.
The third is, - It's all going to be fine.
I suspect that the real question is, how many individual wires can break before the cable holding the suspended platform snaps?I am not that good of a developer, but watching Twitter I can't help but be reminded of Arecibo, except at a larger, more abstract scale. There was no single massive event that caused the failure, rather a series of factors and events, tiny cables breaking that eventually leads to a failure cascade that then causes the suspended platform to crash.
From what I can tell, in the past week or so,
- Twitter's copyright system failed
- Two Factor Authentication broke down (it seems to be back up?)
- (anecdata) Tweets have been loading sporadically for me and other people, sometimes we try to open a tweet and it says that it doesn't exist. Happens more frequently with new/recent tweets.
- (unconfirmed) Twitter's managed account backend is behaving "strangely." For e.g., "One of my campaign managers logged in last week and found all our paused creatives from the past 6 years had been reactivated." from https://www.teamblind.com/post/i-told-my-team-to-pause-our-750kmonth-twitter-ads-budget-last-week-4dnbo1Ft ———— Friends have told me other similar stories
Are these failures symptomatic of a larger problem, or are they well-isolated parts misbehaving? Can Twitter even experience a failure cascade like Arecibo? Can that be paused/stopped?I am asking this question because I don't know. And I'd like to develop a better mental model to understand what happens next.
I put "wrote" in quotes because what I had actually done was install Apache and PHP Nuke on a Windows NT server and then modified an existing form page to do what I wanted.
I wrote that application in 2002 and never had a problem with it. I never restarted Apache or the server or did any maintenance. I didn't even upgrade Windows NT if I'm being honest. Windows NT became unsupported in something like 2006 and I left the company in 2010.
I received a call in 2018 from the last person still working there who knew who I was. It had finally fallen over and they wanted to know if I could help. That was the first time it ever had an issue.
The world cup is on and the site didn't collapse.
That is a huge win and while I don't believe Twitter will ever be profitable, I think Elon will be feeling rather smug right now with his skeleton staff.
Ground floor is exactly where you don't want to be when the structure collapses under its own weight.
Rather than bring in additional specialists to reinforce it, Musk has partially evacuated the building at least.
Mesos is dead. So you need in-house expertise to patch it without being able to leverage community knowledge.
Does Twitter retain enough people to manage Mesos?
Also, the article seems to suggest Twitter only has two datacenters. That seems surprising for the global reach of the company. Perhaps there are other smaller datacenters that are not prepared to handle the entirety of the site’s traffic.
My current thinking is there’s time to figure out how to operate the current system before it runs into issues that would render it degraded for a prolonged period of time. I noticed TLS certs have already rotated for instance. That was my best guess for simple thing that could fail if managed poorly.
Apple is also a big Mesos user, but also moving to k8s.
Then Mesosphere (a company) wanted to bring it to the enterprise market but at the time was competing with Kubernetes... and we all know who won.
If you don't know what a rack is, how are you meant to know what the Order of scaling function means? Thats a highly computer sciences specific notation, and if you grok O(n) you know what a rack, a host, a DC is.
really good article btw. really enjoyed reading it.
might pay to flag when systems you talk about are twitter-internal or are open-source. People love that kind of thing. "wow: twitter uses the gnu C compiler" type thing.
I really don’t understand why so many tech companies have like 8 layers of engineering levels. If the argument is that you need more money so more levels, just have a bigger band. Don’t chase titles they don’t mean shit. Not to mention the management stacks that seem to just hang out in meetings and take pvt. I haven’t worked at a proper startup but I’ve been on projects where a dozen or so people rebuilt apps used by tens of millions of people in a few months, or launched completely new applications for bigger companies.
Now that I work in a tech company (not big tech, but still a multibillion dollar corp) I’ve noticed that since IPO we have added a ton of bureaucracy whereas back in the day we were small teams building completely new and at times complex features. Literally was in a meeting earlier this month where people were patting each other on the back because we added a single attribute to a table. I’m obviously reducing the entire initiative to a small thing but it kind of explains all we had to do. It’s soul crushing but with the economy the way it is I must deal with it. Hell I’m down to show up next Monday and work for Elon if he wants a go getter. At least I’ll get to DO stuff. Or any other startup in SF if they are hiring.
This doesn't account for the extra overhead associated with extra DCs, but it seems like there's opportunities for major effeciency wins.
https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/report-elon-musk-...
Now he just needs to shut down the other 2.
Musk has a point, but it feels more like he's doing this out of financial desperation.
I'll bet it starts going down a bit more often, nothing too severe. Bigger issue might be inability to roll out new features, especially if they dig a horrible tech debt hole. Maybe someone has more details, I haven't kept up, but it seems like the $8 verification rollout got botched because they cut corners on actually verifying the subscribers.
Did they actually verify anything other than the ability to pay $8? It seems wild to me that they thought it would work out just fine
Hopefully they can fix this and have an effective way to verify identity... or else just give it up and go back to the old, creaky, somewhat effective method since people are used to it.
They could stay ahead of things if they hire into areas related to infra maintenance that got hit the hardest, before issues reach the point of cascading failure. Or maybe put everything not critical to keeping the site up & running on hold as remaining devs get a bit of cross training using the limited people w/ institutional knowledge that remain as trainers.
For myself, I don't see much value in Twitter, in terms of net social value. It's format seems pretty much designed for only the most surface level discussions, part of what I believe leads to some of its toxicity: it's simply too hard to have conversations complex enough to invite enough discourse for that to tip the productive/toxic ratio a bit more positive.
So I've been rooting for Twitter to fail for years. I'm not rooting against Musk: I like his other businesses and at least a portion of their ongoing success is tied to his persona. (At least before the Twitter stuff: His actions there may impact his relationship with major banks that his other businesses will rely on, and Musk & JP Morgan, a bank that wasn't included in the deal & therefore won't be hurt by it, is already on somewhat negative terms with Musk. The twitter deal has added a few more to that list, and other banks have undoubtedly taken note. Some bank will always finance the regular sorts of things any large corporation need for him, but they're all going to be pricing in some additional risk. That's not really a big deal, it's just that I think Musk's persona has previously been a net positive for his companies and now it's lost at least a little bit of that.)
So now that it is owned by someone that doesn't need churn and just needs to reduce cost, people can focus on discreet resilience factors, just like any small tightly held software operation. Many of Twitter's pet projects go away, the ad sales relationship have to get re-evaluated too, but the core consumer product that everyone sees can be made resilient and operate cheaper.
First of all, how does it persuade you of that? The article touches a really small (though incredibly important for up-time) subject.
Secondly, in any large company, the majority is 'bloat'. It's security engineers, code reviews, data architecture, HR, internal audit teams, content moderators, ccrum masters and I can keep going. In a start-up many of these roles can be ignored, becaus growth > stability. In a large organization, part of the bloat helps insure a certain amount of stability that's necessary to keep an organization alive.
If a product is mature enough, like Twitter seems to be, removing engineers won't instantly crash the product. It'll happen slowly. Bugs will creep in, because less time is spent on review and over all architecture. Security issues will creep in because of about the same issues and less oversight. Then, once this causes enough issues for the product to actually crash, the right people to fix it quickly might not be there anymore. That's when fixing the issues suddenly takes a lot more time.
If the current state of affairs at Twitter keeps up, it'll probably be a slow descent into chaos. Especially with Elon pushing for new features to be implemented quickly, inevitably by people who cannot fully understand the implications of said features, because 80% of knowledge is missing.
By flowing from many people think it's bloat - I'll tell you what's really going on to tiny team of 1~3 built whole infra for critical component.
I'm not really trying to make commentary on whether or not Twitter engineering was bloat, or whether or not I think it'll hit problems in the future. Just commenting on the fact that the article broke my expectations a little bit as a reader.
It also (a) increases the bus factor, [1] and (b) allows people to take vacations and time off without having to watch their phones like hawk.
It's amazing to me how many people following the Twitter saga, some familiar with or actually working in technology, thought that Twitter would crash within days of the engineers being fired. And because it didn't, the job cuts are justified.
It's not like Twitter was bug free before. How many times it annoyingly refreshed the timeline while I was reading something, or when it shows notification that it failed to send the DM, and when you retry it says "you've already wrote this", or you open the reply dialog, but it freezes, has no send button at all, so you have to re-open it. All of this was happening to me pretty regularly long before Elon came along.
As we all know, just hiring more people is not necessarily the solution to every problem, and to me it seems it was exactly what Twitter tried to do in the past. Now they deconstructed it to the bare bones, which will clearly show what are the core problems and requirements. They basically turned Twitter back into a startup. And from that new starting point they can hire again to cover the needs as they arise. If they succeed it will be a huge success as they'll end up with far more optimal team (and huge savings), and of course, if they fail to catch up with problems it will be a huge failure. We'll see how well Musk can manage it...
https://twitter.com/IlluminatiGanga/status/15946097904324444...
new members joining in 1970. hmmm.
That said, there are lots of bugs in Twitter now, today, when they presumably had the benefit of being in stable mode for a long time. For example, Twitter regularly refreshes and loads new tweets while I'm reading them, pushing the tweet I was in the middle of reading out of view. That seems like a pretty silly bug to exist in a mature product. I regularly reach a state where I have to kill the app and relaunch it because all of the "back" commands just minimize the app instead of taking me back to the timeline. I could go on.
Have you implemented a system which stores hundreds of billions of pieces of media content and makes different slices of them immediately available to hundreds of millions of users?
You focused mostly on additive bloat, there's also multiplicative bloat in the form of multiple teams focused on building separate versions of the same product to increase likelihood of success and empire building where leaders don't actually have a remit large enough to support the team size they have, but they have woven a narrative that defends the necessity nonetheless. Put everything together and teams are very easily 6x+ larger than they absolutely need to be to get a product into market.
What we are watching is a massive failure event right now and the question really is if there's enough time for twitter management to fill in the gaps before there's an outage.
That's how it couldn't prove the claim.
It takes _effort_ to make it work this smoothly now, _and in the future_.
SRE is about _preventing_ issues. Not mopping up after them.
To me, the article read like every succesfull sysadmin story: there's no fires, so sysadmin must be bloat.
Your car is working perfectly fine so why should you pay for maintenance?
1) HR 2) Legal 3) Sales 4) Marketing 5) Payroll 6) Admin staff 7) Most of Engineering, other than the bare minimum of L1/L2/3 support.
As someone paraphrased, a car without breaks and steering wheel works just fine until you hit the first bend.
On the other hand, a car without a second and third steering wheel, 20 windscreen wipers, and an oven in the back, keeps running just fine, even after the first bend...
No: radio, air-conditioning, seat padding, wipers, lights, radar, etc...
Oh, and no maintenance.
It'll drive... for now. But that's it.
If Twitter survives this without any major harm it will have profound consequences for the whole software industry.
"Major harm," to me, would be either bankruptcy or a competitor overtaking significant chunks of Twitter's users. Even if Elon literally has to re-hire half the roles he fired for, or Twitter is down for a few days or a week, or they struggle to get advertisers for a little while, that's nothing for the long-term. In six months, the chances that it'll look like these firings were a bad idea are minimal.
And likewise with the "the only realistic way to moderate an online platform is the way Twitter was doing it" narrative. In six months, all it takes is the ship to still be floating without the old moderation to prove it out, and that's by far the most likely outcome.
That said, Instagram was run by just a dozen people back then, while it had hundreds of millions of users, right? So it's not a new data point.
Storing, retrieving, indexing, managing 280 char blobs (with links, threads, embeds) is not exactly the most hardcore of a problem domains.
Microblogs are the typical tutorial topic, and twitter's only "innovation" was to increase the text limit.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/20/twitter-f...
All just to put caching in front of services that actually do anything.
Same here. I guess his header was on point in why Twitter is still up; but I was also interested in hearing about why Twitter actually needs all those people. If it can be run with 50-80% of the staff gone, that does sound like some bloat at least.
The article makes a point that the reason Twitter is running ok on 20% of personnel at this moment is exactly because it was build to be resilient, not because the personnel was bloated. A large part of this so called bloat, the 80%, was responsible for Twitter to be running right now. Calling this bloat implies it is actually not important for Twitter to be available all the time (or at all).
Not for me
This is almost exactly like the new manager coming in, noticing that the floors and surfaces are all clean, all the systems work, the trash is emptied, etc., and so deciding that the entire maintenance staff is unnecessary and firing them.
The place doesn't become a decrepit pigsty the next morning; it slowly degrades.
Same for these systems. They were designed, built, tuned, and maintained over the course of years to go from requiring constant manual intervention to running largely unattended and with a good buffer of ready hardware and automatic failover for failures. That "largely" in "largely unattended" is doing some very heavy lifting.
The system WILL require human intervention to keep running, and more than just a skeleton crew. The only question is whether it will happen before the new crew gets up to speed to handle the inevitable degradation.
This does NOT mean that the SREs were bloat - it means that they were doing an excellent job and could safely take a break. We're now in just the two-week vacation zone - same as if the entire SRE team went on a holiday. We'd expect it to work. Now let's see what happens in two months.
The engineer was doing stability planning for 6 months out for the purpose of cost optimization. I guess we can assume that the costs of infrastructure is about to go up and reliability is about to go down in the coming months.
It's become an adult daycare, https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1561096423243800576
Twitter's layoffs followed by that 1AM photo of hackers at work is terrifying to lifestyle employees.
It's the Return of the Nerds.
Google, Meta, Netflix, Microsoft are all watching.
... for the Cache component. There are many others.
I think Musk is used to Tesla and SpaceX, which are both companies that a lot of people are (or at least were) excited to work for because they believe in the mission and what's being created. Plus there aren't many alternatives if you want to do that work. Twitter really isn't like that for most people; a Twitter developer has many other options to do similar work. Add to that the fact that he's both cranked up the intensity of the abuse and that it's more visible to everyone, and you can't expect a lot of good people to stick around. And despite the fact that it might coast for quite a while on the back of excellent work in the past, eventually you do need good people to keep a business going. (This is leaving aside the direct impacts of his actions on users and advertisers!)
which signs? They launched a new feature (blue checks for $8) and had to turn it off immediately because it was bleeding money and ruining the platform and they have less ad revenue booked for next year than they had at the same time last time.
I don't think one should judge the new twitter course yet, but "well, the site is still up" is a very bad measure of success.
Huh? He's been in charge for, like, two weeks. Did you think it could implode the instant the engineers received pink slips? Let's give it a year before we say he was right.
Thing is, I think Twitter was bloated and it needed a kick in the rear. Pre-acquisition I heard the same from many I follow. How Musk has gone about it has been the problem. Ignoring his perpetual hates, he had a decent amount of goodwill the day the deal closed. Then, he squandered it with all his antics. A transparent content moderation board turns out to be a game-able Twitter poll. Blue check for all was completely missing any point. No one wants a blue check for money w/o the associated verification. Verification for all would have been awesome.
Ads quality has dropped from what I've seen. It looks like people are pulling out, albeit slowly. MBAs will be studying this, but how things are going means we may look back and see this as Twitters Yahoo/AOL moment when it sells for a few billion in a couple years.
Big tech maintains talent so that they won't use their knowledge of the system to produce an identical competitor without the technical debt or investor liability of the original.
Twitter was not a leftist commie welfare company as Musk and its fans want it to be. It was actually the fine work SRE (amongst others) put into it that makes it still tick along as it does...for now.
* actually some things are already breaking, but it will take some time for the real damage to surface on a technical level
The only concern Id have is that by having so many people, your design probably comes to rely on them whereas a smaller team would be forced to make the system easier to maintain.
Personally, if I were Elon, I’d build an entirely new backend and point the clients to that rather than trying to incrementally improve what they have.
Get 50-100 10x engineers that are loyal to Elon, with big equity stakes, and crush it
That he’s not going to realise these totally obvious first order consequences people are raising seems unlikely.
I'm not a friend of Elon's, but outside of the flashiness of the whole thing, I don't think his firing spree was wholly unwarranted.
The other day I saw a video of a bunch of people at twitter leaving that have been there for a decade or so. I mean wholly crap, this reminds me of old German industry where people retire in the place they started.
Restructuring is done on whatever idea the new owner(s) have in plan - which could be equally disconnected from "real product".
I'm not that optimistic about Twitter long term - never was TBH but this Musk thing is turning to a shitshow and also exposes what it's like working for him in his other companies.
On the other hand the slash and burn Elon approach seems objectively terrible. Indiscriminately firing most of the company kills morale and is likely to send the company into a hiring death spiral where your good employees leave and you can't attract good talent. This won't automatically kill the product or the company but it's not going to lend itself to big positive successes in the future.
This is honestly uncalled for. Job hopping every 2-3yrs should not be an expected task.
What is wrong with that?
German here. I think this actually is a huge part of the success of the famous Mittelstand - all that institutional knowledge these people have is extremely valuable. It's not just basic stuff like "know time tracking, billing and other admin systems and internal processes", but also the stuff that really can speed up your work: whom to ask on the "kurzer Dienstweg" aka short-circuitting bureaucracy when needed, personal relationships with people in other departments on whose knowledge you rely (it's one thing if you get a random email asking for some shit from someone you don't know, but I'll always find some minutes to help out someone who has helped me out in the past), all the domain-specific knowledge about the precise needs and desires of your customers...
Attrition is bad for a company as a whole, the problem is US-centric capitalism cannot quantify that impact (and it doesn't want to, given that attrition-related problems are long-term issues with years of time to impact), and so there is no KPI for leadership other than attrition rate itself.
The only problem is that over the last years, employers' mindset has shifted from regular wage raises to paying the bare minimum which makes changing jobs every few years a virtual requirement for employees to get raises, and so we are already seeing the first glimpses of US employment culture and its issues cropping up.
This is true, and in my opinion, true for a reason. And that reason is not "most huge companies are dumb", as opposed to what Musk's cult seem to believe. The reality is, measuring what exactly is "bloat" and precisely cutting that bloat is extremely difficult and firing more than half of your workforce is probably like using a warhammer to do brain surgery.
If your company is losing money all this time you are likely to be fired eventually in the real world. Job security in sw world had become so high that no one seemed to expect it. Everyone assumed “sure we’re losing money and the company has no direction” but all is fine.
They all stayed there in their tables working for 10 years in a rudderless company as if it was a government job.
Something I learned early in my career is that some companies consider this a feature not a bug. As in, they are hoarding talent so that they don't go to work for their competitor.
Also new owner: "What even is Mesos? Why are we running something called Aurora? Obviously pure bloat. Fire the lot of them."
But apparently I'm not a rich person so that kind of accounting doesn't apply to me.
As I understand it, this works by rounding up potential loans, approaching the board of the company and getting them to sign over ownership of the company for a pittance in return for the shareholders being paid out by the company using the loans you brought in. This feels more like an emergent property of the system (specifically, contract law and how publicly traded companies operate) than how the system is intended to function.
Intuitively this shouldn't be possible as it's acting against the company's own self-interest despite being in the interest of the shareholders (and the buyer), but I think "the company's interest" in practice is defined by "the owners' interest" (and the owners in this case are the shareholders, who sell the company). I guess corporations aren't people after all.
That's the reason to deeply cut expenses and to try and make more money. He could probably have serviced that debt if everything just kept going as normal (no big ad spend cut) and he had fired everyone but that's an impossible scenario.
I’m not an expert in math but it’s seems pretty possible.
Plus they’ll have a lot more impressions to sell now that people are allowed to speak. Ad rates might drop but then someone will write an article about how they are getting great CPC on Twitter and everything will be back to normal after the blue checks have their sob fest.
Advertisers have already said they don't want their ads screenshot next to slurs.
I wish Elon the best, but he could have hired his own team of "hardcore" engineers and put them to work 80 hours a week, spending a fraction of the price that was paid.
What a waste.
Sure, you can run the platform with 1/10 headcount with significantly degraded user experiences (say ~98%). This is not a problem for startups but people usually have higher expectations for established companies. As always, the last 2% is a hard problem and business doesn't really want to deal with a such unreliable platform. You wanna onboard big advertisers which potentially spend $100M ARR? Then you need to assign a dedicated account manager to handle all customer escalations. PMs then triage and plan their feature requests and later engineers implement it. Which all adds up.
And they also uses your competitor's product, like Google, FB, TikTok etc etc... Twitter is a severely underdog here, so you need to support at least a minimal, essential subset of features in those products to convince them to spend their money on Twitter. That alone takes hundreds of engineers, data scientists and PM thanks to modern ad serving stacks with massive complexity.
Yeah, it ultimately boils down into a simple fact that it's really hard to take other folk's money. You need to first earn trust from them. They want to see if your product is capable of following a modern standard of digital ad serving for now and foreseeable futures. Twitter has spent lots of time for earning trusts and the original post is one evidence of such efforts. And this usually needs more man power. You might be able to do that in a more efficient manner, but I don't think that's as simple as firing 75% of your entire headcount.
This exactly. During the recent Whatsapp outage, many threads popped up on HN about how big of an issue this is in Europe, since Whatsapp is the main messaging platform in Europe. Thankfully, these outages are short and far between, so they never actually cause real issues. This is obviously costing Meta/Facebook a lot of money, but allows them to be an essential service. So essential in fact, that every major news outlet in my country sends a push message as soon as Whatsapp is down.
If Twitter wants to be a comparably important platform, they need that same stability. And Twitter, for me, is very much the best place to stay up-to-date on any current event (in near real-time). Reddit used to be pretty good with Live, but that's pretty much died (and was mostly a summary of tweets anyway). I really hope Twitter survives Elon, because I don't know of an alternative right now that has the same value in this use case.
What Twitter is doing is to scale down first, focus on the product, and once it gains traction, it definitely can scale up again. I don't think it will hurt the product very much.
Coincidentally, in 2013 SpaceX was just starting to provide commerical launch capacity, at which point I think they too had < 100 software engineers. A few short years later and they were re-using rockets, a feat many people had thought unlikely/impossible and requires some hardcore software eng.
Not surprised Elon Musk thinks he can run twitter with a skeleton crew.
Now the systems are stable but human workers either be sick, leave, or die eventually.
Rising the pay has diminishing returns. You can't prevent workers leaving because of lost of interests, be sick or die by throwing more money at them.
The article wrote about achieving stability by the distributed system so an unexpected death of one rack doesn't affect the service availability. The same can be done for the human workers unexpectedly not working anymore. Have a multiple workers doing the same things improve stability.
Sure, it's inefficient in terms of money. But alternative is one sick important employee catch a COVID-19 and die lost the knowledge of the system. Documents doesn't solve it because you want the manual operation available right now rather than a few months later when replaced workers learned from the documents.
People would absolutely be more engaged and more excited about their work if they were paid more. The only reason people work is literally for money…
It's largely focussed on the event stream behind the core service and data analytics. There's maybe one entry on the main data store and one on search over the last few years.
This is more true when the layoffs happen because the company’s situation deteriorates. If the company cuts jobs because revenues fall and products fail, better employees are indeed more likely to move to greener pastures before mediocre ones do. If, however, the company prospects improve, rather than worsen, this is no longer the case.
They had wine on tap.
https://www.tiktok.com/@realpankhilpatel/video/7159187292631...
Normal people don't have vacations like that.
There were multiple executives making $10m/yr+
There were board members
There were shareholders
Why did all of them not stop this headcount increase if it's as easily reduced as "too much headcount bad, smaller headcount good"? These are paid professionals who are supposedly wealthy, good at their jobs, smart, informed, etc.
How can us commenters on HackerNews sit from our armchair and say "ah, goofballs should've just not let headcount get so high!"
These qualified people thought at the time it was a good idea to get up to 7.5k people. How were they all wrong?
Organizations tend to bloat.
Random, rapid cuts might not be the fix here, but headcount was too high.
The cliche HN comment on sites like Twitter (and many, many others, any time headcount comes up) has always been "why do they need so many people?" I've mostly dismissed it the same way I dismiss "I could build Uber in a weekend," but with every other tech giant laying people off, maybe I shouldn't. Maybe the effect of all that extra money sloshing around in the system was to incentivize hiring everyone to make sure you didn't accidentally get a false negative, and not all of those hires were good ones.
Come on, just look at the tech industry. When rates were low and stock prices kept going up, "headcount" was used as an indicator of future growth. Grow headcount, investors are happy. After all, the promise of tech stocks was "growth". Usually you're not looking to cut costs until you think growth is over. Of course, Twitter was a dog and did nothing useful for years, no innovation, no new products, nothing. But tech investors definitely saw rising headcount as a good thing...
For the same reason that colleges and universities have seen their administrative bloat skyrocket at 10x the rate of student enrollment. Administrative bloat inevitably creeps into all large organizations. Many of the people in the trenches making hiring decisions weren't considering the overall financial performance of Twitter as a company. They were making hiring decisions based on what was happening in their own department, or how that decision would help advance their own agenda, or increase their budget, or increase manpower on a favored project. When you further consider that many at Twitter openly conceded (and in many cases, bragged about) that they viewed their role at Twitter as moral arbiters of society, crucial to policing the discourse of the public, it is not hard to see how enlisting as many true believers as possible to the cause would be seen as desirable, regardless of the larger financial implications.
> These are paid professionals who are supposedly wealthy, good at their jobs, smart, informed, etc.
Wealth is not a valid indicator of ability.
I'm not judging the execs and board members individually but rather questioning your assumption. I have read you mention "supposedly", yet it can be read as a rhetorical term.
Hiring often isn't done because of current requirements. Senior execs come and go and with them so do strategic objectives. You accumulate people and they're often not laid off when the thing they work on becomes redundant. Large scale layoffs are awful for morale and usually only come after a 'crisis' occurs.
https://nitter.lacontrevoie.fr/libsoftiktok/status/158539526...
Kevin Watson, who developed the avionics for Falcon 9 and Dragon and previously managed the Advanced Computer Systems and Technologies Group within the Autonomous Systems Division at NASA's Jet Propulsion laboratory: "Elon is brilliant. He’s involved in just about everything. He understands everything. If he asks you a question, you learn very quickly not to go give him a gut reaction.
He wants answers that get down to the fundamental laws of physics. One thing he understands really well is the physics of the rockets. He understands that like nobody else. The stuff I have seen him do in his head is crazy.
He can get in discussions about flying a satellite and whether we can make the right orbit and deliver Dragon at the same time and solve all these equations in real time. It’s amazing to watch the amount of knowledge he has accumulated over the years."
Actual quote. Anyone using the term "code commands" comes out a little detached from programming reality, let alone the rest of this request, it is out of a Dilbert strip.
“She had somehow been able to take and synthesize these pieces of science and engineering and technology in ways that I had never thought of.”
“I never encountered a student like this before of the then thousands of students that I had talked”
“You start to realize you are looking in the eyes of another Bill Gates, or Steve Jobs.”
He also maintained that Holmes was a once-in-a-generation genius, comparing her to Newton, Einstein, Mozart, and Leonardo da Vinci.
Excerpt from: "Bad Blood: Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup" by John Carreyrou.
In response to someone saying on Twitter how Elon doesn't understand the technical stuff of rocketry, Tom Meuller, former CTO of Propulsion at SpaceX and the designer of many of their engines responded
"I worked for Elon directly for 18 1/2 years, and I can assure you, you are wrong"
https://twitter.com/lrocket/status/1512919230689148929?s=20&...
And if you're going to claim that his successes have been due to the people surrounding him who actually know what they are doing, then all that tells me is that you are acknowledging that he knows how to surround himself with people who know what they are doing.
We're not fans (I'm certainly not), but it takes a special kind of mind to look at Musk's track record of successes and conclude that his latest project is doomed.
It's the Halo Effect fallacy to think competence in one field automatically translates to another. Especially when the founder in question has displayed increasingly erratic behavior in the meantime.
Is today's Elon capable of doing what Elon from 15 years ago did at Tesla? I don't think that is necessarily in evidence, much less in a very different industry.
And he hates bloated inefficient teams. His decrees on meetings are infamous. Tripling the team at Twitter implies a lot of internal politics, fiefdoms, communication overhead, and generally a lot of headless chickens running around. There's no nice way to fix such a team. A sledge hammer is one way to fix it and obviously he likes getting results quickly.
So, the notion of laying off most of that team was a foregone conclusion. The notion that a lot of the better people would get upset about that and leave as well is also highly predictable. What's left is a team with some gaps but also a lot of breathing room. And he can always lure key people back in by throwing money at them.
Simple plan. It might actually work. At the cost of a bit of drama, temporary instability, and lots of free publicity. Exactly his style. Cringe worthy and effective. I can see the logic here.
The point is that Twitter doesn't really needed someone to build a world class software and hardware team. The technical challenges in reliability and speed seemed pretty much solved or on track to be solved already. The problem of Twitter was that they never knew how to properly manage the community and make the company profitable.
Twitter doesn't have a tech problem, it has a community problem.
It's not about being a fan or not, it's that you're not actually providing any real insight other than signalling how smart you are.
Ever watch someone do CAD/CAM modelling? They need extreme precision of input that AR sausage fingers just aren't going to help with. You need a num-pad and a good mouse with a stepped click wheel.
I get it. We share some similar neurodivergence traits. He wants to be right in the detail. Constantly jumping from interest to interest, seeing the hidden patterns and connections that aren't apparent to others. But there are a times when I know I just need to shut up and let someone more experienced talk despite my brain wanting to lead every discussion right into solution mode, or providing additional context mode.
I've spent the last 6 years in management consulting (without formal business education), I agree with him when he says MBAs are useless. We know that the best solutions come from diverse teams with diverse backgrounds, skills and knowledge. Not 5 clones who know how to build value driver trees, not to say the tools they bring aren't useful, but they can be incredibly limiting.
For someone who hates MBAs he's sure going about this take-over like someone who barely passed one (i.e. knows more than enough to be dangerous). Sure, you're hemorrhaging money in operations. You need to cut costs and find new revenue streams.
What are your biggest costs?
Labor. Slash / Burn. The old McKinsey 7% FTE reduction will give you some extra operating cash from the years remaining budget and you know it's not so much that people (in fear of their jobs) won't just pick up the slack to keep everything moving. Do it quick because you need to rip the band-aid off and get rid of all that accrued leave, restricted cash etc. off your books too.
Equipment. Redundancy? Sounds like unused resources we can fire sale.
Contracts. Renegotiate? The only two meaningful levers are price and quantity. Start cutting quantity now, renegotiate price later.
This is all dummies guide stuff and tends to go terribly in reality when implemented all at once all together.
For instance, research has shown companies that lay-off when under pressure end up underperforming against the ones who chose not to.
Now who's going to help build and operate those new revenue streams?
Quick fixes for a quick buck and a whole lot of extra risk.
[citation needed]
CNN's ratings were never better than under Trump. He's fantastic for advertising. So is Musk. All controversial figures are. That, oddly, isn't controversial in advertising.
>on a whim!
He created a public poll, and when people voted for Trump to be allowed back won, he unbanned him, tweeting "vox populi, vox dei" ("the will of the people is the will of god"). Had he unbanned him despite the poll saying "no" you could argue it was a whim, but that isn't the reality we're in. He also refused to unban Alex Jones, citing exploitation of child deaths and a personal story. Not unbanning Alex Jones was more whimsical than unbanning Trump was, factually speaking. Why do people always misrepresent his actions? And why is it always upvoted and not flagged here?
You can screenshot this: Musk will cut down costs, make Twitter profitable, and take it public again when markets are better placed.
The markets will give the newly listed Twitter the same "Musk-boost" as Tesla and ramp up the valuation to $100B.
The bigger a ship is, the slower it is to turn.
IBM is a "tech" company that employs 282,000 employees, and when was the last time they invented something? I don't remember the last time I heard IBM in the news about something they made.
The bigger the company, you often times find less innovation and more administration & bureaucracy.
The reason startups can survive is because of its small size that makes it very flexible and adaptable to chaos and change, that gives it the edge over bigger companies.
In modern software environments, the entropy is almost violent -- the changes in all the constituent dependencies are constant and relentless. Something frozen in time does not stand a chance, unless it's entirely stand-alone and dependency-free -- an unlikely scenario with a service of Twitter's size.
My theory is that the economic problems have been stressing the systems and that makes the "bones" more apparent. The core concept of this country is checks and balances of two opposing sides. I think it was a great improvement over authoritarianism, but you can see that it is definitely not the ideal final paradigm.
1) The site goes down [you look like you can't do you job]
2) The site stays up [you can do your job] but the lay off looks like a good decision.
You are screwed either way.
That’s funny but at the same time it’s easy to find stuff like that on youtube and has been forever.
Sure, it’s plausible they were made more likely by so many people leaving, but they’re not exactly the meltdown people predicted.
Neither of those extreme viewpoints reflected reality accurately. There were significant problems, but they did not take the entire site down or anything. In fact, for millions who did not have 2FA or use it at that point, they did not see any issue. Whereas people that wanted to find an issue could go looking for the movies. So each side was able to find ways to reinforce their alternate realities.
It's still entirely believable the site will go down and remain down for a week or two at any time.
Was there more I missed?
1. Generally, with large, complex systems like this, everything works, until it doesn't. All the big boys have major outages periodically. I just can't fathom how Twitter is going to handle the eventual certainty of a major outage when, as the author notes, in some cases there are teams that have 0 people left.
2. More than the technical issues, betting that Twitter will go bankrupt is the easiest bet one can make. Musk saddled Twitter with a shit ton of debt - even if things worked as they did before he had to cut tons of people due to the debt burden.
The issue I see is that #2 directly works against #1. Musk has said it will be lots of intense work adding new features to try to raise revenue. But making a ton of changes, probably with lots of shortcuts to get them out the door quickly, especially when so much institutional knowledge has walked out the door, will make keeping the site stable even that much harder.
Airlines are notoriously for going bankrupt regularly.
So the analogy becomes, the new boss sold all the fire extinguishers and also placed a short temporary ban on cooking in the building. But eventually people are going to start turning on stoves again… and then…
Whether that will spell disaster when there's a fire depends on whether the building had too many fire extinguishers to begin with and whether the boss can buy new, better fire extinguishers to replace some of them before there's a fire.
As an SRE I would have been shocked if Twitter failed catastrophically (well moreso than broadly disabling authentication) in short order. However failure is pretty much inevitable at this point given the damage that E-Lon is actively doing.
Whatever. Twitter and Musk deserve each other.
Someone purchased some land for $1. Built a house for say $100. And now spends $100,000 a year making it the perfect place to rent, receiving $100,000 a year in rent.
Someone comes along and borrows $1m to buy that house. They feel ripped off but eventually are force to go ahead with the purchase. As a result they have to pay $100,000 a year in interest. They need this thing to be profitable!
To do this they need to cut back on the $100,000 a year spent. They decide go go in quickly and so email all the services saying "go hard or go home". So the plumbers, tradie, cleaners etc that don't like it leave.
As a side hustle also charge visitors to the house $9 to be allowed to wear their bowtie they used to wear for free.
Some of the people do maintenance jobs and improvements. They keep the termites out, fix subsidence issues, and so on.
And the house didn't fall down within 3 weeks of it being purchased.
And of course people in 'important' roles who've been laid off are going to say the company is doomed, these are the probably the worst source to go off. They're not going to say "oh yeah I didn't do much at all really, just bossed people around and spent my budget every year."
It's like a mass psychosis of some kind. It comes off as a kind of desperation, as though they need Elon to fail.
Why? What's driving that response?
Well, that’s it, isn’t it? How many software systems need to keep running for Twitter to remain more or less functional?
If there are 10 critical systems that are running at four 9’s, you’d expect 3.6 hours of downtime a year, or about 90 days of uptime at a stretch if I have my math right.
If there are 100 critical systems running at 3 9’s, you’d expect 2.5 hours of downtime per day.
So yeah, all software should keep running. But it doesn’t. And something like Twitter isn’t “a software”, it’s a very large assembly of lots of different software systems and the exponential math that dependencies create.
I was terrified to update the kernel at that point, knowing that system disk had been running continuously for many years, and had no faith it would restart successfully.
Finally got two new servers to replace these (with these new SSD things!) and after migration, sure enough, one of the old servers failed to boot.
> Is it possible that software is not like anything else, that it is meant to be discarded: that the whole point is to see it as a soap bubble?
Anyone who has ever been oncall can intuit how often stuff breaks in big or little ways. Sometimes it's transient and goes away, sometimes it can be filed away to be fixed in the next year, but sometimes, it turns out to be an all-hands-on-deck crisis for a team, or 5.
...for people who understand software to some extent. I get the feeling a lot of people see it more like a hamster wheel, where once the developers are gone it immediately starts noticeably slowing down as it stops (and are confused when that doesn't happen).
Now just because they're "in tech" doesn't mean they have any idea about Twitter, but they should at least know enough to know they don't know what's going to happen, but obviously they're not actually using their brains when posting comments like that. Point is a lot of people opposed to Musk have been participating in a spiraling echo chamber of fairy tales and wishful thinking, it's not just journalists (although clearly they're printing lies with ulterior motvies too, as usual).
e: I did not mean for this to be an invitation for everyone to argue about the merits or demerits of Donald Trump.
Not everyone has the same knowledge and skills. Not everything is documented. Not everything in the documentation is current and correct. (especially after recent changes) It's not even that they won't stay up, but depending on who left the company, the oncall response may look radically different and have different time to resolution.
I don't think it's that obvious, it's one thing to just leave everything running but Elon was also talking about changes he was making (Ex. turning off a bunch of "microservices" because they don't do anything). If you turn off the wrong thing and don't have anybody left who knows how to properly turn it back on again, then you're in a pretty bad situation. It doesn't seem like that happened, but I don't also think we have enough information to say how close it was to happening.
Then I saw how bitter and nasty a lot of the online communities I belonged to were. I mention that advertisers were of course mad, the stated goal is to reduce reliance on ad revenue. I was met with people attacking me as an idiot with clickbait articles of “proof” that ad models were irrelevant to twitters problems etc, as if I was doing anything other than quoting musks official reasons for the purchase. Suddenly Twitter was this great beacon of graceful discussion and Musk has ruined it.
People just love to be mad, no one had anything nice to say about Twitter and in a flick of a switch they’re holding completely opposite opinions. We’ve always been at war with Eurasia, it seems
In the computer industry, there are some famous historical examples of companies that announced their new product before it was ready, people stopped buying the old one, and they went out of business before the new version was done.
Not quite the same business, but a bit reminiscent.
I disagree; math would be a closer analogy. And indeed, arithmetic still works like it did a millenia ago. Closer to the present, I have binaries from the late 80s that still work today (and I use them semi-regularly.)
Indeed, much of the impetus of the software industry seems to be to propagate the illusion that software somehow needs constant "maintenance" and change. For the preservation of their own self-interests, of course; much like the company that makes physical objects too robust and runs out of customers, planned obsolescence and the desire to change things and justify it so they can be paid to do something are still there.
It's possible to make things which last. Unfortunately, much of the time, other economic considerations preclude that.
Sure, those binaries might work the same when executed. Although the probability of that is never 100%, but as you pointed out, the rules of arithmetic aren’t expected to change any time soon. That’s correct. Unfortunately software does not exist in its own micro-verse, it’s subject to the laws of physics acting on the machines it’s running on. So while you might be able to write scripts that work decades later, it’s much harder to ensure those scripts consistently run for decades. RAM chips, CPUs, and everything in between are guaranteed to eventually fail if left running unsupervised in perpetuity. Entropy raises with complexity. At Twitter’s scale, to run a software service you need globally distributed cloud infrastructure. They likely have hundreds of services, deployed to many hardware instances distributed across the globe. Twitter isn’t 1 script running 1 time producing a single result. It’s hundreds if not thousands of systems interacting with one another across many physical machines. Layers of redundancy help, but ultimately cascading failures are a mathematical certainty. Many would argue the best strategy to reduce downtime on these systems is to actually optimize for low recovery time when you do fail.
Software is also bound to the world in other ways. Similarly to how most business processes, products and even more generally, tools, change over time, so too do the requirements placed on software systems made to facilitate or automate these things.
Ultimately the only way to escape the maintenance cost of software is to stop running it. The longer you leave a software system running, the more likely it will eventually stop.
Embedded systems that still do their job after 30 years do exist but they live in isolation in a specific and controlled environment, and are built for a limited, unchanging task.
On the other hand, complex web software is build on layer upon layers that are not in Twitter’s complete control.
Hardware change regularly, requiring changes at the lower levels of an OS, inducing potential changes in behaviour, performance, which require adaptation as a consequence.
And that’s before considering security, eternally moving goalposts. Not just at the OS or network level, but also at the business level.
Twitter and al are not living in a locked down context, they live in the messy world of human interactions and that alone requires constant tweaking.
So yes, a binary is more like a mathematical construct and by itself it won’t rot, but if the world around that binary changes, you need to change the binary as well, and for that you need maintenance. The amount required depends on the complexity, brittleness and how well your stack is engineered, but implying it’s a con is a bit extreme.
I thoroughly recommend researching entropy as it regards to e.g. information theory, systems engineering and even (perhaps especially) to machine learning.
Computation is ultimately about what we can compute _in this universe_ and the forward flow of time is an emergent property from the universe’s innate entropic guarantees.
Time is “pre-sorted” for us thanks to entropy, enabling us to define algorithmic complexities over the time domain in the first place.
The fact that most software doesn't continue to function even on the same platform, and on the same hardware, is a massive indictment of the software industry's standard practices.
Things last when you take good care of them.
Things do still need to be fixed of course.
Turning a large scale system entirely off and on is never simple. Invariably you’ll run into some kind of circular dependency that must be manually investigated. And even tracking those down becomes tricky.
Classic examples are things like DNS, service locators, or authentication systems. And large tech companies are notorious for NIH-syndrome for all of those.
This seems to be more true of Mastodon than Twitter.
I can't imagine any self hosted Mastodon instance staying up longer than twitter.
Second, Mastodon runs on open protocols. That has good and bad points - for example, it won’t grow as quickly as a project with huge corporate backing - but it does mean that there’s a more direct link between the community and its longevity. Twitter isn’t just flailing because Musk is doing management by bong rip but also because he’s desperately trying to get out of a financial hole. Open source projects have different kinds of financial challenges but they’re never on the hook trying to fill a hole measured in billions of dollars, either. Given the number of communities older than Twitter I’d say it’s far from proven that Twitter will outlast anything.
Without a reliable twitter systems status history pre-acquisition, the reports of failures, like the issues with the 2FA system, don't mean a whole lot.
There has been a serious degradation in the quality since the acquisition:
- Sporadically loading tweets - I could go on some tweets and refresh the page multiple times, with tweets fading in and out of existence showing "This tweet is unavailable"
- Tweets that quote tweets of accounts you have blocked behave weird in multiple ways. Sometimes it's just showing a "This tweet is unavailable" instead of "This tweet is from an account you have blocked", and a few interacting with them crashed my timeline on mobile, having to restart the app
- On a few occurences, every third tweet on the timeline was an ad
- 1-2 notifications from crypto spam bots reaching me every day. The same thing previously was filtered out quite reliably (I assume), since then it happened ~once ever 6 months
--------
And those are only the things I've seen personally. Yeah, they are no deal-breakers, and mostly sporadic failures, but it very much feels like a service that is degrading by the day.
Sure engineering adding a new widget to the site might increase profits by 12%, but all that bureaucracy can prevent the company losing its payment provider or breaching a government regulation which might cause the company to close overnight. So if the stakes are +12% vs -100%, who is actually doing the most important work?
I don't disagree with your desire to work somewhere lean and task-focused, but I think it's almost impossible for that to happen anywhere but small(er) workplaces.
The core problem is that this approach doesn't really scale out because communication overhead exhibits quadratic growth to the orgs size if it's untamed. The feasible options are:
1. Let the complexity bring chaos across the org
2. One decision maker rule them all
3. Gives some sort of management structures to the org
Your proposal is somehow between the option 1 and 2. The option 1 works pretty well for smaller orgs and it might scale to a quite sizable business if the members are generally competent so org-wide trust can be well-established. But anyway you'll hit a road blocker eventually since people cannot spend all of their time on communication overheads. The option 2 just moves the burden of entire complexity into a single personnel so it's not really a reproducible solution but more of a mere luck.Hence the option 3 is the only remaining option for regular orgs and many smart people tried to figure out the best structure (or at least best practices) but unfortunately we don't have a definitive answer yet. Google-style "tech level" is one of the tool to reduce communication overhead by setting a common structure for expectations (e.g. "we have 1 L6 and 3 L5s to take that project" is generally easier to convince than length explanations of your team members). It's not ideal but it somehow works so it's adopted.
You're likely right that you'll be much more productive if you can get rid of those bureaucracies, but getting other folks convinced is a completely different story. Trust takes time to propagate and people have a limited time to spend on it. This obviously could be drastically simplified if you can work with Elon (or similar style leaders) directly but his time is extremely limited so there will always be only a small number of people who can enjoy that privilege...
Someone earning a lot more than you at the same nominal position leads to a lot of resentment: the perception is that you are clearly wronged here. On the other hand a rank system makes this less objectionable and offers at least some roadmap to a similar income. "Oh, she's SWE L9000 naturally she'd earn that"
Musk took over and made cuts. I don't think anyone could argue that those cuts were at the cost of Tesla's long-term growth. They were needed because of an imminent liquidity problem. Tesla has hired great people since then.
Did we read the same article, because it seemed clear that all that resilience work was done when the company was public shareholder owned, not under the new private owner.
So operating Twitter with 80% fewer engineers isn't the voyeuristic suicide that many of us are hoping to be amused by.
And seriously, the gaming industry is infamous for its "year round crunch mode". It can be done. Many sectors are "hard work" (ie. public sector, fundamentally non-tech gigacorps with no real in-house IT competence, etc.)
Twitter was an innovator. I remember getting into Scala party because of some open source code library from them back then, I don't know, probably around Scala 2.8.
That was absolutely unnecessary for their core business. All of this can be done in bad C++, or plain old Java 7, or whatever, for low cost, built in Bangalore.
Now that would of course likely not withstand this kind of change storm that Elon caused. But that's a different story. (Also what Elon probably doesn't understand on a technical level (but likely guessed from a business aspect), is how flexible Twitter is. In this regard he hit arrived at the right time. Twitter is fundamentally the same as it was, now it's time to innovate with it, and the architecture he found is exactly the right one for that.)
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/18/technology/elon-musk-twit...
my condolences
> Mesos began as a research project in the UC Berkeley RAD Lab by then PhD students Benjamin Hindman, Andy Konwinski, and Matei Zaharia, as well as professor Ion Stoica.
> The social networking site Twitter began using Mesos and Apache Aurora in 2010, after Hindman gave a presentation to a group of Twitter engineers.
There's no doubt that OP built a great and stable automation layer on top of Mesos for caching workloads. But there are numerous other types of workloads on top of Mesos (including, I presume mission-critical database deployments that need well-disciplined draining protocols to shift between nodes), as well as administrative needs for the Mesos-to-infrastructure level, and things running on bare metal below the Mesos level. These things all needed dedicated SREs, and the absence of these SREs could result in a scenario like the one mentioned in the Twitter thread I linked - two obscure mutually-dependent components expire and cannot be re-provisioned using documented tools.
I also think an important meta-point is that when Twitter was bringing in substantial revenue from advertising, every minute of downtime would have significant costs - costs that could make it easily worthwhile to "over-provision" SRE talent. With advertisers pausing engagement, perhaps Twitter loses less money from a day-long outage than it would save having the right talent to turn a day-long outage into a minutes-long outage.
Twitter is only judged by its profitability (namely, Musk's ability to service debt without selling more Tesla stock than he already has), while most other tech companies (both public and private) are judged by both profitability and revenue growth. If you want both, larger SRE teams, to say nothing of feature development and regulatory compliance teams, start to make a lot more sense.
1. who would trust twitter not to change API and make code worthless
2. people who want to do stuff Twitter doesn't want you to do in an automated fashion.
But while fighting the entropy can be hard, not doing so is almost certain to be lethal.
If an organism is infected by gangrene or cancer (the more extreme forms of entropy for a body), it may be more realistic to cut away whole body parts than to treat it in place, even if there is risk of sudden death.
It seems to em that this is what Musk is trying. Either Twitter will be gone within a year, or they may very well be sustainably profitable within 2-3 years.
"Lenders that also include Bank of America, Barclays and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group committed to provide $13 billion of debt financing for the deal. Their losses would amount to $500 million or more if the debt were to be sold now, according to Bloomberg calculations."
Turns out we accidentally stretched one server VLAN too wide, to roughly 600 devices within one VLAN within one switch. The servers had more-or-less all-to-all traffic, and that was enough to generate so many ARP requests and replies that the switch's supervisor policer started dropping them at random, and after ten failed retries for one server the switch just gave up and dropped it from the ARP table.
Of course the control plane policer is global for the switch, so every device connected to the switch was susceptible, not just the ones in the overextended VLAN.
It turned out that the Debian database host had bad ARP entries (an IP address was pointing to a non-existing MAC Address) caused by frequent reuse of the same IP addresses.
Debian has a default ARP cache size that's larger than Amazon Linux (I think it's entirely disabled on AL?).
As for the tooling we used to track it down, it was tcpdump. We saw SYN's getting sent, but not ACK's back. Few more tcpdump flags (-e shows the hardware addresses) and we discovered mismatched MAC addresses.
Anyone thinking "huge success" is unrealistically optimistic, IMO.
It's going to be another MySpace/AOL/Bebo, added to the list of dumbest purchases ever.
And that's still going to be true if the point was to destroy the original community and replace it with a different political orientation.
But regarding the bugs, I’m totally with you. Same here. I use Twitter only in the browser. Browse long enough and the page reloads as if it ran out of memory.
There also isn't a measure of employee quality, and layoffs are often not about the individual (e.g. Amazon cutting robotics). I've had no clue how likely I was to be laid off during most points in my career.
I was given a 33% raise, moved to a salaried position, and got a $5000 cash bonus 10 minutes later.
I had mastered the new system we were implementing and converted and supported the remainder of the customers from the legacy system. Shitty support of the product my team of now one actually drove revenue as the customers would pay higher support prices because of the shitty support I offered.
The service I offered was shitty because my job was to meet minimal contractual obligations for multi-decade contracts to persuade the customers to renegotiate the contracts for a product that hadn't been EOL'd. All the while offering onsite conversion services from the legacy product for most of my day job.
What I'm saying is that company is still alive today, they had a pivot point and literally cut 55% of their employees on a single day.
Google wants to beat facebook still, there is one of a billionity pivot points that twitter could take.
It also seems like a lot of the layoffs were achieved by offering everyone the severence of they left.
Assuming only people on visad stayed, I wonder if that skews more or less competent.
The short amount of time they took and methods they reportedly used don't instill much confidence.
Well, yes, but also that's super reductive.
The primary reason people work is literally for money. The specific _place_ people work is for things that interest them, engage them, challenge them, provide a path for continued growth in their career, or contribute to a common good they believe in.
And I would argue that it's not necessarily a given that people will be "more engaged and more excited about their work if they were paid more," but instead, may be willing to stick around in an unengaging, unexciting environment _longer_ when they're paid more.
Theories like Hertzberg exist for a reason and show that money isn't even close to the most important thing for people to work for. If the money is good enough, there are many other factors that are way more important. Not enough money is a reason for people to leave, getting more money is hardly ever a reason to work harder. The possibility of getting more money if they work harder is a good motivator though, once they have it that stops.
In most software engineering jobs, people have enough money to live an enjoyable life. At that point, having more money is not really such a strong motivator.
And the leads installed by the acquiring company seem to be highly intelligent - the company continues helicoptering in their brightest minds to fix this mess. It just so happens they are forced out every 12-24 months because it’s almost impossible to deliver anything there.
For example, last year they introduced SAFe. That caused an exodus which basically equaled a brain drain (still ongoing). Most people I valued for their straightforwardness and ability to cut through BS there have left or are leaving. The person pushing for SAFe introduction has resigned already.
The founders of that company have all left ofc, and are basically trying to restart the same company (or variations) with their own money. And their products are already picking up speed, becoming threats to the original one.
Personally, I doubt that it will be anything technological that ends Twitter. It will be economic. Their advertising revenue has been decimated and their operating costs have never been higher.
Our expectations were anchored by the idea that Twitter would cease to exist. So very real problems like 2FA going down look trivial compared to the former.
If we're deep-diving it'd be closer to say that he rolled in and sold 80% of the stuff, largely sight-unseen, and if a fire breaks out he'll find out how much of that stuff was fire extinguishers.
If in six months (or suitable time period) we see stagnation in releases and technical issues increasing we'll have some data to infer from.
> we don’t think so. the prod incident we heard about involved someone making an ill-advised choice to reactivate a large account, causing a huge load on the social-graph system, on the night before a prolonged high-traffic event.
Twitter doesn’t have unique scale problems by todays standards.
If this was true then either the non-engineers in twitter have been destroying many times their salary in value or twitter has been obscenely profitable these last few years.
I'm certainly no supporter of "lean operations" with minimum staff etc, and fully agree that you need people that are well rested (for the lack of a better analogy) to do great stuff. But I do think that some of these internet giants do have to many people working there; wasn't LinkedIn 14_000 strong when Microsoft bought it?
I've always felt that the American model of doing business is based on how we optimize network traffic, i.e. double the amount of data until failure; then turn in down a bit. Fire on all cylinders until people are truly worn out, then turn down the pace a bit. Haven't worked in the US so I'm pulling this info out of thin air...
Plus above a certain headcount the communication overhead becomes seriously large, so just to compensate for the lost velocity you need to break out into smaller more agile more autonomous teams, which further increases the coordination requirements (thus the comms overhead), but allows overall throughput to scale.
And the leading edge technologies commonly used require a large headcount to begin with. (I mean just to start running something twitter/linkedin sized requires at least 1 engineer/million users, so a few hundred folks is a given. You need someone who understands networking, from BGP to TLS to VPN to whatever, internal IT, CI/CD, ops/SRE ... at that scale if you use anything, you need an expert for it. You use Kafka with a hundred millions of users? You might need at least a few people who actually know what the fuck a partition means. Unless you want to just directly give all of your money to Jeff in the form of egress fees, you might need folks to setup CDNs, and whatnot.
So without naming names, ina big password manager company (around a hundred million users?) a few years ago there was a certain rewrite project. 3+ people worked on it for 8-10 months, then it was put on hold temporarily. And then obviously nobody speak of it ever.
It happens that there are inefficiencies that for months not one line goes into production from certain individuals.
It was bad management, yes. But if good management was easy to find then we would be talking about different things :)
With the takeover, Twitter has been saddled with massive new debt and would have to become significantly more profitable to service it. Instead, they are losing ad revenue, and any savings from reduced head count will not manifest four at least 4 months because of the severance payments for the laid off workers.
Musk could of course keep the company going as a hobby for a few more years, but he strikes me as more likely to cut his losses early — preferably by finding somebody to take the problem off his hand, but, if necessary, by bankruptcy.
> Even if Elon literally has to re-hire half the roles he fired for
I have this nagging suspicion that the kind of people who line up for an opportunity to work without equity, lousy job security, and send weekly code printouts to the CEO are not necessarily the highest quality hires in the field.
> or Twitter is down for a few days or a week
The Twitter user base has quite a bit of inertia keeping them from moving to competing platforms — lots of people I follow have made backup plans on Mastodon, but not many have moved their focus there. But Twitter becoming literally impossible to use would probably be the one thing precipitating such a process.
> they struggle to get advertisers for a little while
And after that? Are the major brands going to decide that they like advertising on a Gab-lite Twitter after all? Or is Twitter going to strike it rich with ads for dietary supplements, gold coins, non-perishable meals, and tactical pants?
> In six months, the chances that it'll look like these firings were a bad idea are minimal.
The targeted firings were bad enough (To paraphrase someone else "Imagine ranking engineers by # of lines of code added, and then keeping the ones with the HIGHEST number"), but the voluntary departures are likely to be even more consequential. After the way the workforce was treated, what are the odds that the people left are the "best", rather than the ones with a lack of alternatives (e.g. for visa reasons), or Musk fans who may or may not be qualified?
Nanometers?
But of course your view is what's reflected in law: the corporation exists to generate profit for its shareholders, so if killing and selling it for scrap (whether directly or by proxy in a leveraged buyout ending in a firesale) provides more benefit to its shareholders than keeping it operating at a small profit, that's the logical decision. The corporation is not really "a person", it's a vehicle for its stakeholders (or shareholders). A stable service puttering along without making big profits or losses is considered the bad ending.
Or maybe they are too much like people. Right now there's a bunch of things that I should be doing, that would be in my best interest - continue with my TODO list, or do some exercises. Instead, I'm browsing HN. This shouldn't be possible, but it is, because I'm a human - what I want to do, what's in my best interest, and what I actually do are three different things, and rarely aligned.
(Ironically, in humans this is usually called an issue with executive functioning, whereas in companies, it's the reverse.)
The only reason Twitter is in deep financial shit right now is because Elon acquired it in a leveraged buyout and the cost of servicing the debt is estimated around 1B/year.
Although I haven't worked at Twitter, if it is anything like the places I have worked at, the small issues get ignored because nobody makes their career on things that don't show up on investor / shareholder / upper management radars. If it can get papered over so it ends up being someone else's problem in the future, what actually gets worked on is flashier things like redesigning the timeline AGAIN so users spend more time on the website or (in the case that caused me to work for small startups again) spend three weeks deciding on a super trivial design decision with 12 stake holders.
What's wrong with the new owner of Twitter using Twitter in exactly the same way that a lot of other Twitter users use it for, memes and jokes?
I find that rather refreshing, actually. It's a variant of eating one's own dogfood.
At this point Musk is behaving just like a twelve year old’s idea of a mega billionaire. Hyperloop, flamethrowers, self driving cars now Twitter... It’s great that he’s having fun I don’t think there is much to it than that.
I've seen a lot of mockery of this request, but I suspect people aren't considering the wide variance in employee quality that can exist within a mismanaged organization. What Musk was asking for here wouldn't be a good way to evaluate skilled, conscientious developers, but it would be a pretty effective way to rapidly identify people who are basically incompetent or just aren't really doing anything.
So it's basically a FizzBuzz test, but for existing employees?
There is an absolute vacuum of technology specialists in the middle of the US, because no one wants to "live in the middle of nowhere," and they don't want to earn less than FAANG (MAMAA?) salaries, when half of those salaries can give you an amazing life in the middle of the country (source: my piss-poor salary compared to yours).
Storing floating point coordinates for example is what causes the "farlands" world generation behavior in Minecraft, for example.
I'm staying and I'm glad the teams are trimmed.
Absolutely. I also realize that when a company reaches the firing squad stage it's not a good idea to stick around - better polish up the CV and move to greener pastures. I have no insider information - they could be offering generous (and credible) retention bonuses for critical staff, but I've seen this happen twice before indirectly (I was gone before it started happening) and the people that stayed didn't have a good time, were lied to and left in the end anyway in a worse situation (or waited trough to bankruptcy and had to sue for outstanding wages in first place I worked in)
The excuses for bloat here is just mind-boggling, unless reflects that many people on HN are bloaters themselves
I don't think you have a good understanding on how those companies are growing and scaling out. Don't take growth for the granted. "Right product" or "Right technology" won't give you that. It only comes from solving thousands of very specific, never-ending customer problems. If you do B2B, you need to spend most of your time on very specific requests from priority customers. And they are not one, but hundreds of them if you targets $xB business. It's just physically impossible to keep up with a small team even with a very aggressive prioritization.
Still not convinced? Google has a notoriously bad reputation for their customer supports and it's primarily because of their tendency of keeping "inessential headcounts" low as possible. And think about how many cloud customers they lost to AWS and Azure. TK came to GCP and his first work was adding an army of sales and account managers. This almost immediately yielded a rapid acceleration of the platform, although it's too late to catch up.
The freeze worked: we got rid of some products that weren't getting traction and were able to improve the products that did have traction. But the cost of the freeze lingered for at least a year; it reset the hiring pipeline, we couldn't grow fast when we needed to because the limited number of recruiters we had were already overworked, and the limited number of engineers had to balance interviewing needs with their real work. This all happened when my employer was <10% of its current size and pre-IPO, and we didn't even take a headcount reduction.
Twitter is simply at a different scale. 7500 -> 2500 employees is a 66% reduction. Going 2500 -> 7500 is a 200% increase. Recruiting is likely totally gutted, and the current 2500 employees have to support systems previously maintained by a 7500-person company. If they decide they need to grow, it'll have to restart at a snail's pace, and they'll have to make sacrifices on feature development or stability along the way.
Edit: for what it's worth, the fastest way to regrow back 200% is to rehire the people laid off. But, given that I happened to interview earlier today an ex-Twitter candidate who didn't make it through the Elon snap, that route is rapidly closing up.
Additionally it seems a lot of advertisers have cautioned their ad departments to halt spending on Twitter ads for now because they're still unclear about wtf Elon Musk is up to (not to mention the mass impersonation fiasco that allegedly resulted in share prices of several companies being affected negatively).
It's not just sales people, Twitter seems to have gotten rid of most of its external communications people to the point where journalists can't even find anyone to ask for statements other than Elon Musk himself (which may be intentional given that he likes to present himself as the face of his companies).
But if Twitter's ad sales really did rely so much on these sales events, I'd wager that the sales people largely existed to communicate directly with long-standing big-spend advertising partners. It's hard to overstate how much these types of deals hinge on "social glue" rather than cold hard numbers (which can be interpreted/reframed to be interpreted however you want as long as both sides are happy).
This is not a trivial task. With such a heavy reduction and how entire teams have been completely decimated, there will be a lot of lost knowledge. I'm sure there will even be cases where the people who stay don't even know what knowledge was lost.
All that puts Twitter in a very risky position, specially in a product of such complexity that does a lot of things in-house. It shouldn't be underestimated.
I mean this is just wrong. Companies are always under pressure to cut costs (employees) and it is always talked about when quarterly results are posted. Look at how the market reacted to Facebook's latest results and then again what happened when they laid off thousands of staff.
"Additionally it seems a lot of advertisers have cautioned their ad departments to halt spending"
What percentage? Big difference between 0.03 and 0.3.The issue is Twitter under it's current debt burden can't afford to lose any of its advertisers. It needed to find a $1 billion of savings somewhere to keep the deal viable, and not lose any advertising revenue. Due to the acquisition that's off the board entirely due to tanking their guaranteed revenue[4] to the tune of $600-900 million, and since then Musk has done almost everything possible to drive away ongoing spend. So at this point, Twitter is in the hole to at least $600 million of revenue, bringing their minimum current loss for this year up to ~$1.5 billion. If you needed to explain one thing, it's that the massive quick firings were a desperate move to not lose money on that, but it's a false economy and Elon's being ruining any gains by continuing to make moves which seem like they're hemorrhaging even more ad-dollars.
[1] https://fortune.com/2022/11/10/advertisers-unconvinced-after...
[2] https://www.theverge.com/2022/11/18/23467324/twitter-ad-sale...
[3] https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/01/tech/elon-musk-twitter-ad...
[4] https://www.businessinsider.com/activists-urging-brands-stop...
Changing jobs is a skill/knowledge net-negative for the employer, and can be negative (outside of salary) for the employee as they have to relearn everything (relationships, tech debt, processes) etc.
In fact most banks will go as high as 80%, especially if the house can rent for the mortgage payment.
And they will definitely do that deal if you’re willing to pay 10% interest.
Very few industries require constant learning for the business to compete so a highly tenured employee likely hasn’t learned anything new beyond minute process changes for 10+ years. Once people are ossified into a role like that, they will do anything and everything to shut down anything that has a whiff of threatening their current role.
Some were resisting change. Some were embracing it. All in all, I had a great time and gained a lot of respect. I love working in teams with all ages.
Your sentence "once people are ossified..." feels like a generalization to me.
(after a certain amount of time, or upon default, the debt would convert to shares. but it can be much more complicated, and onerous than that too. lending can be fun.)
- ghost towns with little to no one there.
- didn't open registrations.
- completely dead with ssl invalid certificates with expired domains.
So you would have to keep moving to another mastodon instance (if you're lucky) or try and run your own instance and join the many instances with the three issues above.
There is no monetary incentive to keep a mastodon instance running and we both know that begging for donations doesn't scale.
I don't think "begging for donations" needs to scale, if instances get too large to keep running then smaller instances should (and do) split off, they can still talk to each other after all.
There's an actively maintained public instance list here: https://joinmastodon.org/servers
Like the ever-popular "expires in 10 years" long-lived certificates. I've seen that happen: the VPN certificate, probably created by one of the founders 10 years ago when the company was tiny, expired one day without warning, breaking the VPN for all employees until it could be replaced (manually on every device).
The parallel reality where you need to be a veteran SRE with an MIT degree to operate the arcane tool 'certbot'.
It's likely the ones to encrypt all of the traffic involving the Finagle micro-services, data sources, observability systems etc. And I suspect the issue there is that you are going to need to do a rolling restart.
Which I personally would not want to be doing if 90% of the company is no longer there.
Fixing the community starts with rolling back all the things that clearly did not work. He's using the sledge hammer method there too. So, not very subtle but generally just getting of rid of a lot of failed and failing policy.
The technical challenges in speed and scaling are not challenges at all anymore. Twitter built a lot of stuff in house when you couldn't get that stuff as a commodity. That has changed since then. You need a cache, you can get one from any number of cloud providers or spin up something off the shelf you run yourself. Same with databases, CDNs, large scale object storage, search infrastructure, message brokers, and all the rest. So, yes, there might be a need for changing some of that necessitated by some key people disappearing but it's not a massive technical challenge.
And which ones are those? Knowing what did and did not work is an actual challenge by itself.
> You need a cache, you can get one from any number of cloud providers or spin up something off the shelf you run yourself. Same with databases, CDNs, large scale object storage, search infrastructure, message brokers, and all the rest. So, yes, there might be a need for changing some of that necessitated by some key people disappearing but it's not a massive technical challenge.
The massive technical challenge is migrating existing infrastructure to something off the shelf, then finding and fixing the new bugs in that existing infrastructure and/or your deployment/configuration. That shouldn't be underestimated.
It's short term disruptive and might involve some fail whales. And then it is solved again. Break it, fix it. Like it or not, that seems to be the plan. If you accept things might temporarily break, it's going to be a lot easier to act.
It's a microblog, not star ship. At least from Elon Musk's point of view, there's going to be a difference between those two and the amount of brain cycles he's going to dedicate to things breaking or not. He's not going to be afraid to break the team (check), the platform (still running fine), or the community (in progress, engagement seems up so far).
Do we have much to go with to "really consider it", or is it just sensenationalist headlines, as Musk went ahead the accepted orthodoxy on Twitter and content moderation and so "he must pay"?
That would be the same news outlets that built him up as the real life Tony Stark and propped up his quite ordinary companies, one of which is building electric cars like everybody else, just doing it in style as well-off upper-middle class people's toys, and another is doing space tech that was already a thing we were pursuing 40 years ago with a little modern engineering thrown in...
Why aren’t the other space programs/companies landing rockets?
Economics, pure and simple.
SpaceX was heavily capitalised during an era of easy money, so they have cash to burn advancing this technology. Everyone benefits. But there is no indication they are anywhere near profitability. So why would other space programs do this, when they can reap the benefits (tech and cargo) of a VC and government subsidised company?
Or do you think the SpaceX engineering team is the only one on the planet capable of doing this? I'm sure they're awesome, but that's a stretch.
Note also how "launching rockets" or even going to the moon and back, was something we routinely did 40 to 50 years ago.
Heck, we even tried reusable rockets, and even had space shuttles. They were cancelled for political reasons, just like moon missions and NASA programs were. Not for lack of progress or technology.
I've done that lots of times. As do almost all people flying Cessnas, Moonys, Pipers and the like...
Of course getting workers to come on on weekends and midnight hours accomplishes the same thing.
We don't know. It could be a situation with one steering wheel and 40 wipers. And as long as it's the wipers that fail, we're fine.
Everybody stating this number of employees is necessary to maintain a Twitter scale system is simply wrong.
And as technology progresses, fewer and fewer people are needed to maintain the same size system
Many just don’t want to believe that the leverage in employees favor in the tech sector is fading fast, and their labor is not going to warrant 500k comp with marginal effort anymore
Chat apps are well known to rely on infrastructure that scales up exceedingly well. That is why there are so many of them, and why they all have 100 tech employees or less.
Instagram at the time of the acquisition could have run on 20 servers plus S3. Today's Instagram, along with today's Twitter, does a lot of work that is super-linear in user count, and has something like 2000 engineers. Timeline building is reportedly O(n^2) in user count. The scale difference has a huge effect.
Notice that chat apps have no equivalent to "timeline building." The worst scale factor a chat app has is linear.
And obviously employee count shouldn’t scale linearly with user count. No idea where you get that idea?
To argue that a 1B+ user app of moderate complexity can’t be run by a few hundred employees is simply wrong.
The end game for all web software is going to be managed services with automation built in such that it requires almost no manual intervention (absent logic bugs). This gets easier and easier to accomplish as cloud capabilities grow. And cheaper.
The long term trend for tech is obviously towards fewer employees and bigger impact per employee through leveraging higher level abstractions. Look at what you can build as an individual today vs 20 years ago and it’s quite obvious. Unless you think technological progress will suddenly halt
BTW I am a fan of your work.
Tesla, to this day but especially early, had the govt subsidize their products to help make them more competitive.
I don’t think those are even a bad thing, but it isn’t a supportive argument that he’s a great free market capitalist.
"Chapter 7 of Title 11 of the United States Code (Bankruptcy Code) governs the process of liquidation under the bankruptcy laws of the United States, in contrast to Chapters 11 and 13, which govern the process of reorganization of a debtor. Chapter 7 is the most common form of bankruptcy in the United States."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_St...
Pure copium.
I'd guesstimate that Twitter probably has dozens of services that are in the critical path of an average user interaction. It's hard to keep even logically optional dependencies truly optional in large scale systems involving many people.
However Twitter didn't die in the past when fail whales ruled its day, so they probably won't kill it now. It's just not that kind of business. (In contrast, a one hour outage had me directly apologizing to our largest customers on the phone). That said, Twitter can only be unstable and lack feature growth for so long before something else takes its place, so Musk is on a clock.
To be this young and carefree
These kinds of things have formal courtship type periods and legal filings that take months, and then they happen, and then executives plan on rolling out layoffs and cost cutting measures over years, not days or weeks, like the "plan" seems to be here. This really is madness, and I can't blame people for thinking the site might just wobble and collapse at some point, though as the author goes into in very nice detail, we do try and build resilient systems. I'm certainly curious how it all plays out, but you won't catch me making any guesses.
I'm currently the first and sole architect on a product that was built by only devs. I really know why I exist.
Where’s the 1000s of engineers for Postgres? Most stuff that works is made by a handful of people. Look at io_uring it’s basically one guy at Facebook…
You're comparing Postgres to Twitter?
If some of the people making comments like this actually work in tech, then yeah, maybe there is a lot of bloat to be cut.
https://www.citusdata.com/blog/2017/04/20/analyzing-postgres...
Not tens of thousands at any one organization supporting postgres and clickhouse.
No single organization needs even hundreds of people to support these apps. You just need a good architecture and a handful of dba's, developers, and sysadmins... maybe.. depending on your scale. At many smaller orgs you can probably get away with one.
It provides a house for your clicks, then you sell the clicks from your house.
In twitters case I would recommend they use checkhouse which will help them monetize their checks. Tumblr is already way ahead of them.
It's all fun and lulz until it happens to you.
You'd be surprised, but that's not necessarily the case.
One of my friends was such a person in a shoe making company as a designer. Instead of giving her a raise, they fired her.
Cue them re-hiring her a month or two later after they found out the hard way that the less experience subordinate really couldn't handle the job of the two of them on their own.
(I do also like the lottery version and use them basically interchangeably, though the shorthand is always "bus factor" for me)
It's not about having enough people to do the work even if someone quits, it's about having enough people that know how to do something that we aren't losing chunks of knowledge if someone quits (or dies, or gets fired, or gets sick, or etc).
It doesn't make sense to me to treat people as part of a conduit bus that are interchangeable as long as there are enough people.
Every twitterer is a newsletter. Most hardly ever tweet and sporadically at that. The followers are subscribers. They hardly even see most tweets they subscribe to as the whole thing is quite ephemeral. Same as never reading all your emails (very few people are inbox zero freaks).
The timelines are just that, an email inbox. It is very soft "real-time" at best.
Tweets older than 48 hours can just be archived to a blob store and served as a static website. Most people consume it as such, logged out and from the browser.
You think brainyquote.com is hard to scale? Think of twitter.com as unbrainyquote.com.
All the other froufrou built on top of it is more complicated but 2007 style twitter is dead simple. That is its (completely accidental) genius.
There is no shortage of systems that are x10-100 times more "web scale".
At minimum you need to do a hybrid approach which special-cases the more widely-followed users. This problem has been well-known for quite a long time. Yahoo's "Feeding Frenzy" whitepaper came out in 2010, but the concepts were definitely known before that; I remember hearing about hybrid activity feed designs in 2009 from colleagues who formerly worked on LiveJournal.
An application running on a single platform, self-contained and with some basic failovers such as redundancy (2+ machines running the same application), etc. should have ridiculous uptimes.
A distributed and complex system with interdependent components, under variable load, with different capacities for subsystems running across some thousands of machines will, inevitably, encounter some unforeseen state which degrades the system as a whole. It can be a small component that cascades a failure mode in an unexpected way or can be a big component failing spectacularly due to a bug, or race condition, or a multitude of other issues that are not entirely predictable and guarded against at the time of writing such software.
The latter is what has "wear and tear", it's not one software, it's a whole system of software communicating with each other in varying states of hardware decay, you can design and build it to be resilient against a multitude of predictable issues but you can never expect that it will run perfectly fine unattended.
The only good thing is that “turning it off and back on again” works. Usually.
The parent post is asserting that code is inherently stable so long as the platform doesn't change. I disagree.
But I didn't call it "simple", I called it "simpler", and it is.
Which point?
> It's not about the tech, it's about the community, and communities are far harder to predict and manage than a rocket or a car.
While I broadly agree with you, and also agree that twitters founders and/or leaders are better equipped to manage a community than Musk is, I fail to see how having someone with a track record of success (some in turning around failing businesses) automatically dooms the company.
That was the point I was responding to, in the original post. It's also why I ended of with "it takes a special kind of mind to automatically assume something is doomed just because someone with a track record of successes took it over".
If you watch interviews with famous developers like John Carmack, they'll mention that working alone scales to about the equivalent of 5x developers. That is, adding 1-3 extra people might slow you down because of the overheads of communication and coordination. It's only around 5+ in a team that there is a definite advantage.
But what are the chances of putting together a team of 5 rockstar developers that all agree on language, style, and vision? Basically zero. So you have to settle for mediocrity. Popular languages, simple approaches, established design patterns.
If you're an experienced "rockstar" developer coding by yourself and use a fancy language like F#, you can outperform a team of 10+ people. If you're replicating a system you've seen already, 20-50 might not be out of the question, especially if you're smart enough to avoid "tarpits" and instead rely on good quality libraries and CotS components like databases, PaaS, and the like.
OTOH, at non tech companies, all the research interviews and surveys I have done recently continue to show a talent shortage and fears of losing tech staff, so maybe it is just that Tech companies are saturated and have too much capital for their creativity.
I wonder if any science fiction writer could have predicted silliness like Snapchat having fewer outages than serious government websites because Snapchat is better at hiring engineers. Tech hiring is so bizarre.
Our total headcount was under 10 000. Most of that was logistics and call centres (taking retail orders). Our IT dept was literally about 200 ish. All our office staff fit within a few floors of a medium sized building. IT was less than a single floor.
I’d say our software, whilst serving fewer users, was completing tasks orders of magnitude more complex than Twitter. We didn’t have much down time, in fact almost zero beyond physical damage to our networks and the once every few years disaster. Our critical support team was a handful of greybeards who spent much of the time playing solitaire. Code reviews were tight and access to production strictly controlled.
What we did have was a very lean culture, carefully managed over a long time. The company was over 100 years old.
I do not understand how, with far more sophisticated tech, companies like Twitter need so many staff. We could have run Twitter with a thousand folks, including sales. From an engineering standpoint a few hundred would do. And most of us weren’t great engineers. There were a few very experienced freelancers, though. We all worked 0900-1730, but we worked 7 full hours every single day, every minute of those 7 hours. No beanbags. Most of that time was sat quietly coding in a very cleverly designed open plan office (no cubicles) that was like a library.
Looking back, I think the key insight was that we were very cost driven and absolutely kept everything as simple as possible. We had all the usual project overrun problems, usually because things turned out to be more complex than previously imagined. But it baffles me when I hear engineering head count at places like Twitter. If you had given us 1000 engineers, we wouldn’t have known what to do with them.
2) WhatsApp does not support the type of public broadcasts done at Twitter, and due to its e2ee doesn't require much human moderation.
2. WhatsApp didn't have e2ee back then. The broadcasting is important, yes, but it is very heavily biased towards reads over writes, so something like Cloudflare would solve 99% of the load.
That said, the sheer amount of weird emotion attached to this particular billionaire is just perplexing. Only few years ago he could do no wrong. Today, it seems, he is being ganged up on including by some of his biggest internet fans. And media oblige for whatever reason. I dislike billionaires, but I dislike them as a caste in our societies. I don't see Elon as a savior of mankind or the devil, but those emotions that swirl around him are made to make him look like one or the other.
Somehow, one is supposed to pick sides.
Trump seems to create the same emotions. It is truly fascinating.
Say I'm an engineer. And I write code all day. And I get paid by a company to do it. And it blows up in production. And I tell my boss "code tends to blow up".
Or I tell my boss "code tends to take longer than estimated to deliver".
I wouldn't be given lots of promotions/bonuses with that outlook.
We're talking about a Twitter CEO with $30m/yr+ in total compensation.
There's no way his/her view was "shrug, organizations tend to bloat" while racking in extremely competitive + good pay as somebody whose main job is to drive a company towards maximum growth/profitability.
There's no way the CEO was able to convince a majority of people responsible for paying him (the board), to pay award him $30m/yr in stock options, while he was also "bad at his job enough" to let the organization bloat without as much as an afterthought to it.
We, the people on the outside looking in, have to be missing something.
You know the old saying: "It Is Difficult to Get a Man to Understand Something When His Salary Depends Upon His Not Understanding It."
That's what's happening here.
That engineer that was humiliated publicly for defending a slow-as-molasses JavaScript-heavy microservices Rube Goldberg machine? Hacker News is filled with people just like him that have built near identical software in other orgs.
Understandably they're upset and are looking for any excuse to dismiss Elon's criticism of not just Twitter, but their entire industry.
Cue a team of engineers working for a year+ to build a complicated data pipeline to bring all that data back together into a graph DB (not a clue why a graph DB) and build a DSL to write the code to make these decisions.
That's where the engineers go. It's complexity that is introduced setting off a chain reaction of increased complexity to account for the complexity introduced. Then you need complexity to account for that complexity and so on.
Not that it's all self inflicted wounds. Running a site that counts 1/10 of humanity as active users is a hard thing to do
In an organization of any appreciable size, things change all the time.. and I'm not just talking about code (for which you could have a code freeze in an emergency situation like this), but the external systems you're connected to could change for reasons completely out of your control. Content changes can break stuff because of bugs in your code. Legacy systems could require all sorts of ongoing tweaking and maintenance. And, yes, heat can break your software if the server it's running on overheats.
Twitter is not a palm_os app.
Then in theory.. if you own the hardware and you've locked down the libraries... That code could keep running for a long time. Agreed it's not a Palm app, but with everything locked down, I'd argue it's safe
But now I can third party stuff changing. Payment processors and such. Those don't happen fast though, and 100% not so fast that a company the size of twitter can't work out a sunsetting.
To the heat can break software if the server it's running on overheats. I have a feeling twitter's has a system in place to scale out the faulty server.
My point was, comparing code to a car is silly. A car needs maintenance. Code in code freeze does not.
Your PalmOS app doesn't run on any modern hardware except under emulation. (Which is sad, I loved my Centro and held onto it for as long as I could.) The last release of PalmOS was in 2007, 15 years ago. Most hardware from that long ago is dead, and thus your software is dead. broken down by entropy to the hardware.
If however I have an app and I don't look under the hood for 5 years, it could still run as good as it did when I locked it down. As you said some companies run on apps written for windows98. Those apps are still working as they always did.
I don't think it needs are constantly changing. Like it could freeze for weeks/months. Leave existing bugs and put versions in lock.
I do agree that it will eventually need to change, but that's where selective hiring comes in. Oh system X isn't great. Lets find a team for that, all else remains black-boxed.
How many SSL certificates (internal or external) need re-issuing per month? Some of that can be automated, but in an organization as large as complex as Twitter some will be bespoke and manual, and a code freeze won't stop the clock.
How many new CVEs per month apply to Twitter's services and tooling? How many race conditions or other bugs are lurking, just waiting for the right time or traffic pattern to emerge? Twitter can't freeze inbound traffic without dire consequences.
Twitter is like your car, except that it's always running.
New Yorkers despise trump and have for ages. From tenants, to contractors, to business partners they all know what a shitheel he is. Outside of NY though trump was largely seen as an affable caricature of a rich dude. Case in point: NYC as a whole isn't averse to republicans and yet they still rejected trump in 2016.
Elon's the same way. Sure he called that diver a pedophile. But he also had a Tesla employee hounded until he fled the country. Musk had the guy swatted for fucks sake (or tried to at least). Or what about the journalist who pissed him off and ended up having some Tesla features disabled on his car. Or his ex-wife who talked about being treated like an employee. These things were mostly inclined to stay in the background until Musk elbowed his way into the spotlight. Now the whole world can see that he went full on Howard Hughes.
This is a very interesting statement to me. I am trying to recall conversations with my wife's side of the family, who supported Trump ( initially, mostly ) and their impression of him was almost exactly that ( plus, "he is a businessman so he knows the game" or something to that effect ). I am in in Chicagoland, but now I am curious if any serious study was done on whether that is how he was perceived as ( ideally before it became socially awkward to state your political affiliation openly ).
<< Their inner circles knew how rotten they both were, but outside of that they were largely unknown.
And that is the other interesting thing. Prior to whatever caused this change of hearts, I only saw impressions of Musk that were similar to impressions of Gates ( you know the ones - saving Africa or something; I know it reads awful, but I really don't remember what his PR presents him as ) - visionary making cameos in odd cultural vignettes ( I think he did one in 'Big Bang Theory' ). The articles describing his work style were very slowly bubbling up.
<< These things were mostly inclined to stay in the background until Musk elbowed his way into the spotlight.
And became too much of a power center himself.
I will need to sleep on it, but I think I agree with you.
For those people it has nothing to do with technology, which is why their takes were so hysterical and wrong. It's 100% about politics every day, 24/7.
> There's no way the CEO was able to convince a majority of people responsible for paying him (the board), to pay award him $30m/yr in stock options, while he was also "bad at his job enough" to let the organization bloat without as much as an afterthought to it.
Why not? Why would those board members have ever called him out? The more they're paying him, the more they can pay themselves too.
One way to fix this is to make corporate takeovers easier. This sort of cronyism ends up being a con on the shareholders (and the con is especially easy to pull off if the "shareholders" are passive index funds that don't pay much attention to their holdings).
By removing legal protection on corporate raiding, the board+CEO have to worry about activist investors who ask inconvenient questions like "why are you paying yourself $30M a year instead of giving shareholders a dividend?"
Elon himself is a CEO with a better track record than Parag, why is he not more legitimate if we are pretending leaders can't make mistakes
There's a clear correlation between org size and CEO pay, even when not in the company's interests. Some CEOs and managers also love the power. Politics is also at work.
> Or I tell my boss "code tends to take longer than estimated to deliver".
I've used variations of that phrase throughout my career. I'm very well paid, partly because I account for this and make certain that other stakeholders are aware.Jack, who was once the CEO of Twitter, has said that they hired too many people too fast.
Elon, who is "paid" way more than $30 million/year to run several companies, also apparently thinks it was very bloated.
I'm not necessarily saying the billionaires are right and the millions are wrong. I'm just pointing out the clear counterexamples to your appeal to authority. I honestly don't understand why you would be so surprised to find out that millionaires also make plenty of mistakes. The Twitter stock price to a degree is one indicator that the Twitter executives were making mistakes.
If Elon had joined Twitter, and spent time understanding the business and environment and then excised the people he felt weren't contributing towards his vision, that would be one thing... but he has made arbitrary judgements based on absurd metrics like lines of code or willingness to show up at 1am to draw on a whiteboard, he has not made judgements based on the quality of the work or the value people have delivered.
Likewise, to suggest that a software engineer is bad because they were a part of a team that built a "...slow-as-molasses JavaScript-heavy microservices Rube Goldberg machine..." is absurd: what if that person was the only reason that it wasn't 10x slower? What if, they were the lynchpin in that team ensuring that brought everyone else up to a much higher standard which ensured that what they built was usable (even if it was bad)? You cannot judge the contribution of an individual without considering the wider context.
I have no problem with a company cutting most of their software engineers (I encourage clients to minimise their exposure to software engineers, I encourage careful hiring over volume) but what Elon is doing is... not that.
You're probably right, but there's a decent chance that Elon's heavy-handed approach was necessary.
I've seen the "gentle" approach fail.
For example, at $dayjob a bunch of on-prem stuff is being slowly modernised into the cloud. Very slowly. Slow enough to give the dinosaurs time to play politics and protect their turf.
For example, the networks teams that are used to legacy in-line firewalls will cozy up to some non-technical senior manager with a budget and get them to approve a project to roll out this legacy technology in the cloud. That way they don't have to retrain or -- worse -- risk being made redundant.
If instead some team comes in and simply bulk-migrates workloads from on-prem to the cloud... breaking a handful in the process and just fixing forward, then it appears to be messy and crazy, but the effect is that the legacy data centre teams are made redundant virtually overnight. Now they've got no clout, no time, and no pull. They're simply walked, and will find jobs elsewhere.
I've seen both approaches, and the latter style worked better long-term.
Citation needed ;D
Time will tell. I don't think Musk/twitter's case will set any precedent. He is too much of a character to provide broad meaningful insights into industry. Also he has accumulated a list of failures which are rarely mentioned.
It's hard to blame people based on his decades of public behavior and lying about his education, falsely claiming to have a physics degree and to have been admitted to grad school.
Now, if your Rust code was a distributed system that handles spiky loads from ~330m users, and processes petabytes of data, then I'd consider your comparison relevant to Twitter.
But I'm going to assume it's not relevant.
P.S., I've written Java services that never went down, because they had a well defined domain and all potential errors were handled. But, I'm not about to compare that to all of frigging Twitter.
He clearly does know how to make incredible sums of money. Why that's not enough and people need to find excuses to exaggerate or demean his intelligence is beyond me.
This is the insane thing to me. He's promised a lot of things, but he has also delivered some pretty huge things. Tesla kicked off the electric car migration and has millions of EVs on the road. SpaceX has reusable first stages on their rockets and are the only private company to send humans to space. Just those two things alone are massive achievements. But people look at some things he's promised but has not yet delivered and that somehow is more important than what he has delivered?
Here's two examples I've found particularly insightful that shows he has some ability to talk about engineering details.
This example where he talks about the choice of steel for Starship as opposed to any other metal, something that would be an otherwise unsual choice: https://youtu.be/vLC5W53Fsyg?t=936
This example that I've personally incorporated into my own thinking where he talks about his "five step process" for engineering design refinement (watch at least until he starts talking about Tesla Model 3 battery stuff): https://youtu.be/t705r8ICkRw?t=805
I knew what you were talking about when I started reading your comment. "Make your requirements less dumb" first seems so obvious once you've learned it.
All the denigration directed at him seems to come from people who've only read headlines about him from sources who hate him.
My guess would be that he has some knowledge but also is very good at faking it which is not necessarily a bad thing - those are good traits for a CEO. Though people should be aware of this fact when evaluating the whole persona.
Brute forcing a problem with better technology not always the actual solution when technical problems aren't actually the problem.
As were others. Surely Blue Origin had the easiest capital of all.
I don't know why this nonsense keeps being spread.
a) Steadily increasing revenue, DAUs etc and benefited immensely from COVID.
b) Were on track to being sustainably profitable.
c) Starting to get traction in stealing ad spend from Facebook who had their own issues after Apple's effects on attribution reporting.
The company was in a much better shape than many other similar SV companies around.
I don't think it's obvious at all that the long term trend is in favor of few employees with "high impact through abstraction" when the highest-impact people I know at big tech companies are ones who build the underlying technologies behind those abstractions. They routinely bring in 8-figure cost savings per engineer per year compared to using OTS or open-source technologies.
Headcount should scale with actual complexity of the problem being solved, which is not AT ALL linked to a user's perception of "complexity." Twitter is far more complex than you are giving it credit for, and a big part of that complexity comes from its scale and the fact that it is cheaper for them to eschew "higher level abstractions" than to use them.
For them, hearing "bus factor" may make it through the barrier and result in an involuntary creation of imagery in their head of someone getting gruesomely hit by a bus, and then the corresponding emotions they would feel (or simply just the emotions, without the imagery).
For further reading, I'd recommend this article in the Atlantic. The relevant portion is about midway through.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/elon-musk-...
Your point 2 sounds like there were additional factors that could have influence the reliability besides the load (they didn't simply migrate to FB infra but also switched to Signal).
> The broadcasting is important, yes, but it is very heavily biased towards reads over writes, so something like Cloudflare would solve 99% of the load.
There's push-notifying millions of devices within seconds after a celeb or a major news source tweets. There's tracking view and engagement stats on that in realtime. There's making sure a tweet is not available to any of those within seconds after it's been deleted or moderator. There're separate back-office apps for moderating that firehose of content. And that's just what I can see from the outside. An e2ee instant messenger with size-limited chat groups doesn't even come close.
Please don't say "just stick a CDN on top of it and you are 99% there", it's embarrassing (and not to twitter). This will maybe get you 80% there if your goal is "a microblogging platform" but not even 20% if your goal is being both the go-to news source and shitpost forum for people worldwide reliably working even in sensitive times and emergencies. Twitter used to be a microblogging platform back when it had much fewer employees and you'd see a fail whale regularly even as it had much fewer active users, in recent yeas it's a completely different beast and saying increased headcount is unrelated is amusing.
2) Public broadcasts make a lot of things easier because that means more of your workload is relatively straightforward caching (as evidenced by this blog post).
So, you don't have the numbers.
> easier
Have you even thought about moderation and all the other concerns that go with this? How does instantly notifying millions of devices helped with caching, for example?
I'm pretty sure there will be no failure at all, and Twitter will work just fine.
Not the end of the site by any means but cracks are showing.
I meant that there will be no catastrophic failure that will permanently (or even for a few days) stop Twitter from working at all.
Let's not forget that whatever code monkeys are left are now personally liable for running afoul of the FTC. Whatever motivation they may have now will run out pretty damn quick once they stop getting paid.
Generally speaking prosecutors want to target the highest level individuals responsible for directing such activity in the first place, not low level implementers who have little say one way or the other.
There are probably many such components; I'd imagine SRE alone would be 200+ people
How many of the remaining staff have the knowledge required to keep all of those components running smoothly?
You might have 200 different apps (hell, we have close to that, only 3 people in ops) but competent team will make sure they deploy in same way and are monitored in same way.
And once you go from "a server" to multiple servers, whether the end number ends up being 20 or 200 isn't that important till you start hitting say switching capacity, and if you're in cloud that's usually not your concern anyway.
Our biggest site (about dozen million users, a bunch of services and caching underneath, few gbits of traffic) took zero actual maintenance for 2022, "it just works", any job was implementing new stuff. It took some time to get to that state but once you do aside from hardware failures it "runs itself"
Nobody is adding changes that blows out the DB? or add some inefficient code that burns CPU much faster?
The SRE manager is in charge of keeping it all running. He isn't running around the world swapping out servers. He also isn't sitting back with his feet up thinking "All done - now how are my Pokemon doing?"
It's a dynamic process with quality monitoring, budgeting and reports, post-mortems, continual experiments to see if uptime can be improved, and redesigns as hardware and software change.
It's part of the backend, but is only loosely coupled to the content management and delivery system, the ad machine, moderation, marketing, and so on, all of which are going to have similarly complex structures.
That's not true if media reports about the purchase was accurate. The debt financing was only $13 billion: https://www.google.com/search?q=musk+buys+twitter+%22%2413+b...
The more complete funding structure[1] looked like this:
+ $24 billion : Elon Musk personal wealth (e.g. selling some of his TESLA stock to raise money)
+ $7 billion : other equity investors (Saudi Arabia prince, Larry Ellison, etc.)
+ $13 billion: bank loans
The Twitter puchase was mostly Elon's personal money (~54%) and not debt.
So, a handle of individuals can dwarf most countries GPD.
Please pass this on when you see this cheap talking point, thanks.
There have been several front-page posts on HN in the past few weeks about big name company CEOs apologizing for massively over hiring during the pandemic not realizing that it wouldn't pay off once the lockdowns ended and people decided to go back to living their normal lives again.
[1] https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2018-219
[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/05/27/elon-se...
He's also extremely divorced, keeps having off the record children with his executives, and is having a midlife crisis.
Twitter was poorly managed. It would have been a $100B company in 2020-21 if it had shown any semblance of consistent profitability.
The opportunity here is to:
- Take the company private
- Cut costs by pruning staff and reducing bloat
- Get high-engagement accounts back, which, in turn, will bring back advertisers (perhaps sweeten the deal by promising something with your other ventures)
- Eke out a few quarters of consistent profits
- Go public again, this time with $500M/quarter of profits
- Enjoy the standard "Musk-effect" 40x PE multiple and slow keep cashing out
- He purchased it because he’s in a right-wing filter bubble and bought into the idea that Twitter is controlled by a secret left-wing cabal and genuinely believes he’s doing the world a favor because he thinks right wing propaganda is actually moderate
- He has the same brain damage as Trump and requires adulation by sycophants and he thinks this is the best way to guarantee his fix and give him control over his critics
- He wanted the brand name and doesn’t care about what services are currently offered under it
- He’s from the southern hemisphere and wants to destroy the social fabric of the United States
- Some permutation of all of the above
Not sure which of these are the truth, but I’m guessing a combination of the first two.
He uses Twitter non-stop, and has an incredibly curated public image.
I have no doubt he had excellent reasons to buy Twitter, but what he says they are in public probably isn't the whole story.
> It's the Halo Effect fallacy to think competence in one field automatically translates to another
I didn't say it was. I was responding the notion that Musk blundered into success at Tesla and SpaceX.
Rolls-Royce (of the last century) would qualify, but it was more aero than space.
Look, I don't know if Elon is a genius or an opportunistic parasite with really good PR. It seems unlikely if we ever will know that. What I object to is people pointing at his ultimate financial success and crediting him with the current result of 2 big companies whose future is very much not determined.
When I look at his process from this ant's perspective, I think he is an abusive unstable individual who takes credit for everyone's work and lies a lot. He also flip-flops depending on the wind. Is that success? Not based on my personal values. Have his companies accomplished a lot? Some of them, absolutely.
The definitions and evidence matter a lot, and I personally don't think any of us are qualified to make blanket statements based on incomplete outcomes. Further, I don't think his other companies that require primarily good engineering are very relevant to inherently people problems, like Twitter. My evaluation of how Musk handles people problems is that he is very bad at them, and I anchor my prediction about his Twitter leadership based on that.
Yes. Social media is easier.
> It's the Halo Effect fallacy to think competence in one field automatically translates to another.
This is precisely about leveraging the Halo Effect fallacy. Elon Musk might not know social media, but the markets don't know that, nor do they care. The average retail trader sees "Elon Musk's company" and buys and holds, regardless of absurd PEs.
Musk knows the power his brand has. He's simply going to use that to pump up Twitter's valuation, all through the virtue of his "halo"
There are no easy answers if you want to satisfy everybody. One easy answer is to stop trying to satisfy everybody.
If Twitter becomes (even more) a platform for hate (or at least "highly militant") speech, placing ads on Twitter, especially close to said hate speech becomes bad publicity, regardless of third parties. If you ware placing an ad for a mattress or a family movie, would you like it to be seen by people who are in the middle of a flamewar?
I stand by my earlier claim: if there is no (or not enough) content moderation, most advertisers will not return. If there is, they may.
Right now the trend is advertisers getting more spooked because of unpredictability and Musk being unable to reassure them in calls he has been reported to have been on. I expect this trend to continue
How many millions are in a billion?
the power law applies to any big organization. 20% of the people do 80% of the work, whilst 80% of the people are just there for "support".
whatsapp was run by a team of like 20 people or something when they got acquired for $20 billion. for a simple software product, you don't really need that many people. in fact, more people often means bad software. you just need a small group of very talented engineers to run the product and add new features when necessary.
big (and especially public) companies often times need to hire a lot, just to look like a real company.
now that twitter is private, elon has no responsibility to public investors and can focus less on looking like a real company and more on doing what needs to be done to cut bloat/costs and improve product
This is false. People invest on many year horizons all of the time when they believe in the company. If there was good evidence that having an average tenure of 5+ years was a great boost to the company, people would clamor to invest in companies like that.
This was basically Google’s entire pitch when they were an early public company. Happy employees == great things. I remember when 60 minutes or dateline did some special about google before 2010 and people were floored by how good the employees got it. However, hiring standards relaxed and now google is slowly rotting from the inside to realize it’s the new IBM.
Long tenure alone is absolutely not an advantage. It’s very easy to have a bunch of dead weight that just looks like they know what’s going on.
So back to your point about experience mattering. That should show up in customer satisfaction, project turnaround speed, success rates, etc. Otherwise it’s pretty meaningless. And guess who already measures those KPIs…
So it wasn't unreasonable to think that Twitter would begin experiencing problems.
I didn't think that Twitter was going to literally have an unrecoverable system crash and permanently shut its doors, but I thought we'd see some outages or partial breakage over time, which is basically what has happened albeit in an admirably mild way.
It comes off as a kind of desperation, as
though they need Elon to fail.
You don't need to pathologize it, like it's some... deep weirdo psychological yearning. Some people think he's a jerk and wouldn't mind seeing him fall on his face!If a person was staking some significant part of their emotions on their feelings for Musk, yeah, that'd be unhealthy.
But I think you are significantly overestimating the emotional weight behind 99.99% of the half-baked Twitter quick takes. It's okay to not like a guy!
But the parent poster characterizes those disliking Elon Musk as suffering from "psychosis" and "desperation."
It's a an unfortunately common, passive-aggressive ad hominem tactic you see on the internet and elsewhere. "People don't like thing or person XYZ? Oh, they must be mentally ill and losers who spend their whole lives obsessing over that thing/person"
HN should be better than that.
Was that a real thing those people were saying?
Genuinely asking, as I don't follow any of the former Twitter engineers on, well, Twitter, and if there were any such posts/articles on here I must have missed them.
The only prediction anyone made was that the World Cup was historically a period of very high load, so if something was going to go wrong soon, the weekend would be the first vulnerable time, and the World Cup finals will be the next.
Experience.
Many of us have worked at companies where there is a lot of duct tape holding things together and when you let go of entire teams (not just a large percentage) then it isn't unreasonable to be pessimistic. Especially when you know that in order to fix problem A you need to take B, D, E, C corrective actions in that order. And you learnt that through years of things going wrong.
More so at companies like Twitter where they never really reach a steady state. You constantly have large fluctuations in system stress e.g. World Cup, Trump rejoining etc.
In my opinion what would be inappropriate for a billionaire CEO, and reveal deep flaws in decision making process, and the decision making process of any government official or governing body who subsequently partners with that CEO, is to fraternize with the likes of Epstein after he was convicted, e.g., https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/business/jeffrey-epstein-.... But I guess morality is also subjective so people might disagree with me there too.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kanye-west-back-twitter-aft...
My experience is both exist at the same time because the leadership teams don't actually know what core business is or are busy building empires and resumes.
Just curious, among the critical stuff just
holding on, was there also a whole pile of
departments and teams doing work that could
cease tomorrow and the company would blink
and move on?
I get what you're saying. For any given team with a public-facing product you generally have perhaps 20% of the staff keeping things running and the other 80% of the staff is working on new features, reports, enhancements, customer support, whatever. You could eliminate them and while it would diminish the company in various ways, the other 20% could certainly keep the lights on.However it's worth noting that's not what happened at Twitter; there were very specific and explicit reports that the "keep things running" teams were hit just as hard by layoffs/resignations as the other departments.
So there was real justifiable concern there.
There's also a lot of things that can go wrong during sloppy and abrupt handovers. Like... you fired the guy who manages the domain renewals. In the chaos of transition nobody picks this role up. One day 18 months later you realize "twitter.com" has expired. Or whatever. Even if the remaining staff is sufficient to keep things running, there are thousands of these little process interruptions.
I’m amazed people in good faith will minimise what SpaceX has done and pretend like “no one else cares”.
NASA has basically zero capability anymore (given they just launch their only rocket) - which was completely disposed of.
Do people really think all these other programs/companies think it’s “better” to throw the rocket out?
Why are rocketlab and others working on recovery and reuse then? Why has blue origin failed to get to orbit? Surely we’ve been doing this for 40 years, what’s wrong with them?
A single shuttle launch cost the same in 1990s dollars as 20 Falcon launches in today dollars.
I think you hit on the the main point: the reason this is constantly in the mainstream media is because the mainstream media so heavily relied on/still relies on twitter[1].
If this were any other large company imploding in a Musk acquisition we'd see fewer stories about it because it affects journalists less.
--------
[1] It's going to be especially funny if journalists complain that "#LearnToCode" type of tweeters aren't getting banned, and get told in response to go off and create their own twitter.
No matter where in the political spectrum one may lie, it's always satisfying to see a group being fed their own lines back.
That's certainly possible and I wouldn't know what that would look like, and yep, in theory there are lots of financial rules and regulations regarding public companies that Musk made a bit of a hash of.
I can't agree that Twitter's journalist demographic was mostly responsible for this being big news, though I'm sure that plays a part. Musk brings the circus with him wherever he goes, but this was nuts even for him. And any $44 billion tech buyout would be news without those factors.
What is a "legal assault" and why does Lichtenstein have an ongoing "legal assault" against twitter?
I've had coworkers hounded by managers from unrelated teams because my coworker wasn't working fast enough on a feature that was important to their team. They made assumptions about how many different tasks my coworker might have had assigned to them.
They were juggling like 3 or 4 fairly important features/fixes for various parts of the organization at the time because our team was (in my opinion) understaffed.
But of course, each of the relevant managers can only see "didn't satisfactorily complete my fix in the expected timeframe", and then perf review comes back and collates that info to "doesn't complete tasks on schedule" without taking a step back and recognizing that this is a failure mode of planning where one engineer was responsible for way too much stuff with no reasonable ability to push back.
At the same time, of course, engineers were getting promotions for doing exactly one thing well, which is as it should be.
There are lots of lessons in here, one of which is very likely "push back on work that causes you to overburden yourself", but I'd argue another important lesson is that you just don't see what others are working on. I'd be surprised if there were more than one or two people in your org who knew every task you've completed in the last 30 days, and to me it seems unreasonable to expect that you can make that assessment of more than 5ish people in your immediate radius.
But while we're throwing ad hominems for the fun of it; I'd rather have a bunch of "bloaters" on my team than the one person who is convinced that they are one of the golden few producing value, and everyone else is a lazy freeloader. I've worked with that type of person before and it's awful. It is rarely the case that they are _actually_ producing an 2-3x the value of other engineers, it's much more likely that they're just reducing morale and causing internal conflict while building some small piece of the pie and assuming that's the majority of the work.
Like someone who builds a button that says "delete my account" and says "I built the delete account feature" while not recognizing that there are a ton of people on the database teams that made the feature possible without performance hiccups or leaving dangling foreign keys.
> I'd be surprised if there were more than one or two people in your org who knew every task you've completed in the last 30 days, and to me it seems unreasonable to expect that you can make that assessment of more than 5ish people in your immediate radius.
This is not the case at all in many work situations, a prime example being when you work on a team and all code and work produced is shared. None works on other teams. The code reviewer and hopefully project lead will know, or have a very good hunch, what everyone is producing.
I would argue that bad middle management is another bloat problem, so in essence; you just made another point for how bloat is very bad for an organisation. I wonder why you are so interested in defending the all too common effect of corporate bloat in an economy where its calculated that a large percentage of jobs are useless and there is a trend to collect multiple useless jobs.
https://techcrunch.com/2022/11/11/musks-lawyer-tells-twitter...
not to be flippant but you find that out like 3 environments below production.
Cut costs by pruning staff and reducing bloat
Hard to cut costs when you've just saddled the company with billions of dollars in new debt. Don't forget El Musk-o is getting sued by Tesla shareholders over his bloated compensation. Get high-engagement accounts back
Advertisers didn't leave en masse because "high-engagement accounts" left, they left because the "high-engagement accounts" came back. From the looks of it "absolute" free speech doesn't include Alex Jones, so who knows what other "high engagement" accounts will be left out in the cold. Doubling down on "absolute" free speech just means you're going to have a sea of ads about pillows, dick pills, and reverse mortgages.It looks like you can post entire movies to 2 Minutes per clip onto Twitter right now. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/users-uploading-entire-movies...
The perfect example of why that is not the case at least in Silicon Valley is Google and their messengers and social networks... just how many of them exist(ed)? Four? Five? Each of them was someone's promotion project, left to languish, suffer and eventually die afterwards. Honestly it's a wonder Gmail and Maps are still around, their UI hasn't been updated much in ages despite obvious potential for improvements... I guess the only reason why they are alive is that they generate absurd amounts of data.
Granted, but they usually have the option to sell at many points along the way.
Think about an alternative financial instrument. What if you could invest $X in a public company (and get a higher rate of return because of the higher risk) but you lose the ability to sell until five years have passed?
This is one kind of option that might be worth trying. I want to see more mechanisms promoting long-term investment in our public markets. (Bonds are not identical to what I described BTW.)
The lack of these kinds of options (sure, bonds exist but I've not noticed them used with any notable significance in public companies) is why people talk about the short term quarterly focus of Wall Street.
> is why people talk about the short term quarterly focus of Wall Street.
This is a false meme though. Tesla was worth more than multiple profitable long standing car manufacturers combined before it ever turned a profit. Investors fixate on short term performance when the company has no long term vision and deriving cash flows is much easier (e.g. a container ship holding company).
It's also not necessarily a disadvantage. The real argument is that people management is important. Everyone from the new person who just joined to the decade long senior engineer need to be held to high standards. Which brings me to my next point.
The big problem with Twitter was management. Dorsey was barely a CEO for many years. Parag didn't seem to want to try anything. I think people routinely underestimate how important good leaders are. "There are no bad teams, only bad leaders" comes to mind. So far Elon has shown himself to be terrible in this regard. With SpaceX and Tesla he communicated a vision, with Twitter he's communicated very little and just instituted chaos.
The problem was even worse: there was no vision at all from no one, not leadership, not the investors, not the users, what Twitter should be, other than "it is a way for instant communication with feeds". Everything else was completely lacking: what features do people want, what moderation policy should be applied, how does Twitter plan to make money.
The only ones that had at least some sort of vision where activists - the left wing, the advertisers and large parts of the users didn't want Nazis any more, and the right wing wanted "free speech" aka allowing Nazis.
No they don’t. The sales org might but when I was at GOOG the quarterly deadlines had zero influence on launch dates, engineering decisions, etc.
Public companies frequently get punished severely in the market when they have a great quarter but advise a negative outlook for the year.
This is just a misdirection. I could just as easily said, nobody did it by themselves, including Musk.
What is “it” in this case?
NASA (and the DoD) had vertically landing reusable rockets designed for orbital flights back in the early 1990s. They were being successfully tested but budget cuts killed the program. They weren’t doing “it” because it wasn’t the same priority in that era. NASA has been researching COPVs for decades, etc.
The SpaceAct agreement between NASA and SpaceX allows for sharing of this kind of information. If you think SpaceX has done all their great work alone, you are misinformed and likely making you data fit your conclusion instead of the other way around.
SpaceX has some competitive advantages, but I don’t think they are what you think they are.
Obviously, cheap launches into space.
> If you think SpaceX has done all their great work alone
What I'm saying is SpaceX got it done. No other organization in the world did. The fact that SpaceX had an obvious learning curve of failing and exploding rockets makes it obvious it wasn't just copy and install NASA technology.
NASA's reusable rockets were on the space shuttle, which turned out to be fantastically expensive and impractical.
> NASA has been researching COPVs for decades
Somehow not resulting in a practical, inexpensive reusable rocket.
It's undeniable that NASA has made many great achievements. But making space accessible in an economic manner isn't one of them.
I wasn't referring to the shuttle. Note I said "vertically landing reuseable rockets".
Are you claiming SpaceX doesn't use COPV's, or that don't benefit from prior COPV research? I don't think either position is accurate. Of course no single technological advancement defines space exploration.
Can you elaborate on what you think SpaceX's key advantages are? I can use that to gauge if you really know what you're talking about. I don't want to sound rude, but it's starting to come across as a poorly informed discussion, but one where you have strongly held beliefs. That's not the relationship we should probably hope for.
If you don't think he can keep selling 1B a year, I don't think anything I say will convince you.
The idea that the banks will somehow repossess Twitter from an unwilling Elon is detached from reality
In what sense?
"Must" might be.
No one has figured out a way to monetize a social network without advertising, at least not at the scale Twitter has to operate.
I think the statement probably is more like "no one has figured out an easier way to monetize a social network"...
A "de facto public square" would be public in conception, construction, and support from the start, which is one of the ways we know that Twitter is no such thing. Though it would likely also have some rules for how speech is/isn't conducted.
And all things considered, advertiser-friendliness is a sort of low-resolution but approximate passable democratic mechanism for marking boundaries of civilized discourse.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/elon-musks-twitter-d...
In Twitter’s case, its $13B in new debt on the balance sheet means that, every year, they have to come up with $13B times the interest rate in additional revenue and/or reduced cost merely to be in the same place profit/loss-wise. Elon already massively overpaid what Twitter’s business-as-usual can generate even before accounting for that $13B; as a result, the post-acquisition Twitter has to try a bunch of negative-expected-value moonshots in the unlikely hope that one of them hits against the odds and the others don’t turn out fatal, because doing nothing or iterating sustainably kills the company via debt service.
In a lot of cases the best solution would be for the company to declare bankrupcy, reorganize, and discharge the debt by convincing creditors to take pennies on the dollar and a share of the resulting smarter-run healthier company, and a judge that the plan is reasonable. However, Elon both poisoned that well by firing people, angering advertisers, and bumbling around product-wise, and also staked a bunch of $TSLA that would need to be liquidated to go through with the bankruptcy.
The loans are then assigned to the company they bought, rather than the core sharks ... uh investors. The "investors" then repackage/selloff/spit shine as necessary to get it resold to some sucker. The investors get THEIR money back with a profit, leave the debt to the company and the sucker who buys it, and look for the next victim/target.
Musk likely went the rapacious route because he made a dumb move, and this is the only way he's getting the money he committed to the deal back.
Oh yeah, and when they buy the company, they are in charge of it. So they can pay themselves whatever they want in executive bonuses / etc.
I knew somebody would bring that up. Currently there are fewer than 500k "verified users". Not that many people have 1 million+ followers and they don't tweet all that often.
> At minimum you need to do a hybrid approach which special-cases the more widely-followed users.
Great, so we are in agreement that for 99.75% of users it is all quite trivial.
I'll tell you what has happened since 2010: hardware has gotten a lot faster. 1 million iops is not a big deal anymore. Keeping that in mind you should refresh your assumptions.
https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/storage/aws-san-in-the-cloud-mi...
https://spdk.io/news/2021/05/06/nvme-80m-iops/
We built a 2U Intel Xeon server system capable of 80 MILLION 512B random read I/O operations by combining the latest 3rd Generation Xeon Scalable Processor (code-named Ice Lake) with Intel Optane SSDs.
https://twitter.com/axboe/status/1554115250588471297 122M IOPS in 2U, with > 80% of the system idle. Easy.
Just to put this into perspective, at 4K random reads, this is 144GB/sec of bandwidth from storage, at 36M IOPS.
Fancy 512b random reads? You now get ~120M IOPS.
You could saturate streamed network traffic on 11-12 100Gbit NICs.The difference is having the option. :) Behavior tends to be different if you don't have the option to sell during a window of time.
In this hypothetical case it might serve as a built-in grace period. Companies that otherwise might have failed if measured and punished quarter by quarter might have time to build a product over five year time horizon.
Completely agree.
Why do people do this? I mean in any industry. Just why? Is there something I don't understand about executives or C-levels or something?
There may also be some game of thrones shit going on where if a boss and a mini-boss have a baby it solidifies rank and power.
That's an entity that specializes in RISK MANAGEMENT.
Also, why are you (and many others here) refer to Musk as "E-Lon"? Is it supposed to be a derogatory nickname?
Even if you outsource it you'll still need people within your company to manage your service provider. At one company I worked for they got all of their outsourced HR+payroll for free (indefinitely) because the provider (Gevity) consistently fucked up everything they touched. This was at a company of like thirty people.
If you're suggesting Twitter can simply outsource payroll, sure. But you do that before you fire your whole payroll department. You still need people to handle the transition.
everyone's DMs leak, all the anonymous accounts have their identity revealed, and all Twitter's clients (advertisers) have their bank account info made public.
This reminds me that progressives have historically always supported corporations as complex hierarchies, scientific enterprises, run (ideally) by “experts.”
But then again, if you're scare-quoting expertise, maybe that's not the conversation you're here to have.
Well, yeah. Like the rest of the financial system.
The people who buy the debt know what they are getting into. (And if those 'suckers' don't know, honestly, they shouldn't be investing in junk bonds etc.)
what if the debt is sliced up and repackaged and rated AAA fraudulently?
Why not? It's pretty good for all the stakeholders that have a say.
The old shareholders sold for a nice price.
The new ownership didn't have to pay for the whole thing.
The lender gets to charge a pretty good interest rate because there's a good chance of default. If they're lucky, they get repaid; if not, maybe they made enough in interest to make it worthwhile; maybe when it defaults, they'll be able to make something worthwhile out of the wreckage they got at a nicer price.
Leveraged buy outs aren't great for stakeholders that don't have a say. Employees usually get new terms worse than the old ones; in this case, there's been some severance at least. Customers get a promise of a big bang bankruptcy in the near to medium term, rather than a slow fizzle. Sometimes companies with a large payment they can't make can restructure, and sometimes they shutdown with little notice. As a private company without public accounting reports, there will be a lot of guessing about revenue and debt service.
Because at the end of the day, as you mention, it's the employees and their families that will suffer the most. But as long as those employees don't have board seats while strikes and labor-related physical protest movements have become a thing of the past then I guess this is the reality we'll have to live on for the foreseeable future.
No he did not. It was initially proposed but there's no margin loan against his TSLA holdings in the final deal. For the debt that Twitter took on in the buyout the collateral is the company itself. There's zero connection to Tesla in the actual financing.
https://www.cnbctv18.com/business/who-is-funding-elon-musk-i...
If your potential write amplification for a single operation is anywhere remotely near a factor of 1 million, you have a serious problem and need to completely change your approach to the problem, and use different data structures and algorithms.
Hardware hasn't gotten that much faster really. PCIe flash cards started to get used over a decade ago -- yes, modern storage is better than those were, but not by a huge multiple. And meanwhile max CPU frequencies today aren't much higher at all. What we have instead is more cores. And a lot more RAM per box. Faster networking, sure. But none of this lets you get away with massive write amplification from choosing an overly-naive algorithm.
And iops aside, even just the storage capacity from full inbox materialization (along with necessary indexing overhead) will bankrupt you, especially on that blazing fast storage you keep talking about. Keep in mind everything needs to be replicated to multiple regions / data centers for DR/HA, as well as keeping the data closer to users to lower the latency.
I'm not making "assumptions" that I need to "refresh". I've literally spent the majority of my career working on this stuff at extreme scale, both in 2010 and today, and all times in between.
The twitter firehose is usually bellow 50MB/s. 200GB a day of tweets will bankrupt no one. An 100TB Nimbus Exadrive that does 100,000+ iops costs about $30,000. 1 year of tweets. Thousands of twitter employees fired probably saves $3+ billion/year in salaries, I'm sure they have a hefty enough hardware budget.
> Keep in mind everything needs to be replicated to multiple regions / data centers for DR/HA, as well as keeping the data closer to users to lower the latency.
Does it really? I don't think so. Not with tweets.
For DR you can stream into a blob store like s3 in the background and have an automated process that stands up a fresh shadow cluster from it every couple of hours. Hardly costs anything with this volume of data. That is cold data, doesn't need the fancy blazing fast storage.
Those things aren't going to fail any sooner than they would have anyways, but they're going to fail a lot harder due to the loss of institutional knowledge.
Said no-one in the entire world except a hand-full of Hollywood studio owners.
That bot shouldn't have existed in the first place, but I know that that falls under "just world fallacy" and is a naive thought.
Put another way: being unable keep a little bot running, one that keeps an entire industry happy, doesn't bode well for other components of the service.
You may not like it, but having a bot do that probably saves a lot of legal hassle.
Is that true? I thought one of Elon’s big pushes was launching the whole Blue Tick subscription thing. That doesn’t feel like a small feature.
It might not be small, but it's not exactly huge.
I’m not saying it’s going to bring the site down tomorrow but that one feature touches on a lot of services.
When was the last major new feature? The site has always seemed pretty stagnant.
The push notification argument is also overstated. Sharding and fan-out solves the burstiness. And people overall receive a similar number of messages (and thus push notifications) from WhatsApp as Twitter. Besides, these days the push notifications go through Google/Apple servers anyways to reduce the number of open connections needed on the phone side.
Then there are DMs. They are per person so CDNs don't help much (just static assets), but also they shard basically perfectly. So, shard them.
Which in the end leaves the user feeds. Designed correctly, sharding would work extremely well, and what doesn't work could be handled by caching closer to users for those 1k most popular accounts.
Honestly, with the correct architecture, languages and tooling, it could be handled by an experienced 50 person dev team plus another hundred in ops. Obviously Twitter doesn't have the perfect setup, so maybe an order of magnitude more? And if you throw a bunch of subpar engineers and tooling at the problem, nothing can dig you out of inefficiencies at this scale anyways.
And no, I'm not wildly optimistic here. StackOverflow still runs off of 9 on-prem servers [0]. I've seen message queues that can give 200M notifications per second on a single machine (written in C++, for HFT). This stuff is hard yes, but throwing more bodies at it doesn't help past the point your fundamentals are solved.
0. https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/stack-overflow-st...
They switched to a new protocol and grew from 200 million to I guess about a billion users since 2013. If you believe a team of 50 developers could deal with this and not cause extensive downtime and service disruption along the way I pray you never ever manage software engineers.
> Sharding and fan-out solves the burstiness.
Great, at least it's no longer "just add CDN to solve 99%" here;)
> And people overall receive a similar number of messages (and thus push notifications) from WhatsApp as Twitter.
Yeah again WhatsApp has many users but as an engineer you just don't ever have to worry about delivering a message instantly to more than 32 people (512 as of this year), and you never have to account for moderating any of that because it's e2ee and there are no adverts next to the messages. It's basically dumb pipes terminated by one native client. Twitter has to maintain a mix of automated and human review of all UGC and is accessible via extensive APIs and search engine indexed web app in addition to native client.
> Then there are DMs
Let's ignore Twitter's DMs, even without them it's far more complex and demanding than an IM app.
> StackOverflow still runs off of 9 on-prem servers [0].
Yeah, and SO maintenance page or read-only mode is up about once a month and lasts dozens of minutes. What are you even talking about now bringing up a niche programmer-oriented help forum for comparison here?
You may be stuck in the times where Twitter was a RoR-based microblogging platform. It's not been that for years.
This isn't 2005 anymore, we have multiple parallel 40gb LAN, 64 cores per socket and 2MB of L2(!!!) cache per core, and a full terabyte of RAM (!!!) per server. If you program with anything that makes cache-aware data structures and can avoid pointer chasing, your throughput will be astounding and latency will be sub-millisecond. How else do you think WhatsApp managed 300M clients connected per server without having just the in-flight messages overflowing memory, on top of all the TCP connection state?
Things only get slow when scripting languages, serialisation, network calls and neural networks get involved. (AKA "I don't care if you want docker, a function call is 10000x faster than getting a response over gRPC and putting that in the hot loop will increase our hardware requirements by 20x.")
The more distributed your architecture the more network overhead you introduce and the more machines you need. Running the WhatsApp way with less, higher performance servers simply scales better. Just from the hardware improvements since 2013 there was no reason for WhatsApp to change their architecture as they grew.
And if you think rolling out a new protocol while maintaining backwards compatibility is hard and somehow adding more people will help, I have a team of engineers from Accenture to sell you. I did this straight out of university, to thousands of remote devices, over 2G networks, with many of the devices being offline for months in between connections. You just need a solid architecture, competent people and (I can't stress this enough) excellent testing, both automated and manual. And the team that did this was 6 engineers, and this wasn't their only responsibility.
Furthermore, you would need to supply evidence that hate speech is more prevalent instead of merely fearmongering that it is allowing such.
That's entirely possible. I'm certain that big brands know better than me.
> It would at worst devalue the ad space for being poorly targeted.
Isn't this kinda synonymous with what I was claiming? Or are you saying that big ad spenders would come back but only if Twitter lowered its pricing? It's pretty clear that Twitter will do the latter, so we'll see about the impact.
> Furthermore, you would need to supply evidence that hate speech is more prevalent instead of merely fearmongering that it is allowing such.
Did I claim that?
Yes, that. Perhaps with stabilized trust they could lift prices back up.
> Did I claim that?
I think I addressed your 'if' as a 'since'; my mistake.
1 Toyota Motor Corp 10,495,548 (same) +11.8%
2 Volkswagen Group 8,610,100 (same) -5.5%
3 Renault Nissan Mitsubishi Alliance 7,680,014 (same) -1.3%
4 Hyundai Motor Group 6,667,085 +1 +5.0%
5 Stellantis 6,583,269 +1 +5.2%
6 General Motors 6,291,000 -2 -7.9%
7 Honda 4,121,000 (same) -6.5%
8 Ford Motor Company 3,942,000 (same) -5.9%
9 Suzuki 2,763,000 +1 12.9%
10 BMW 2,521,514 +1 +8.5%
Notice who's not in that list?
Now let's look at market capitalization[2]:
1 TeslaTSLA $568.87 B
2 ToyotaTM $202.86 B
3 PorscheP911.DE $101.44 B
4 BYD002594.SZ $86.39 B
5 VolkswagenVOW3.DE $84.30 B
6 Mercedes-BenzMBG.DE $69.28 B
7 General MotorsGM $57.48 B
8 BMWBMW.DE $57.39 B
9 FordF $56.60 B
10 StellantisSTLA $48.87 B
There is no possible way Tesla is worth more then double what Toyota is, while shipping about 1/10th of the vehicles. The Price-Earnings ratio is 56, vs Toyota's 9.
By every possible metric, it is vastly overvalued compared to it's profitability, and there's no reason on the horizon to think it will suddenly catch up since all those automakers are moving directly into it's space.
[1] https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/who-won-the-automotive...
[2] https://companiesmarketcap.com/automakers/largest-automakers...
If you think Toyota's stock (or bonds etc) will increase in market price relative to Tesla, for a fee financial markets will let you bet on that conviction and make money, if you are right.
With that said, there are differences between internal systems and something like Twitter on the public internet. I assume that Twitter is a system under constant attack. What happens when the next log4shell level vulnerability comes out?
The car analogy is amusing, but how much does it really hold up? Have we ever seen another major social media company drop this much of its staff in one go? I certainly can’t think of an example. I think we’re in somewhat uncharted waters here.
A driverless car won’t last long, we know that for a fact. I think it remains to be seen how long a bloatless twitter can last. I’m personally optimistic.
It's also really hard to define 'last' though. Does 'last' mean just for up-time? Does it mean up-time without a major security incident while maintaining the same DAU? Does it mean business as usual on all fronts except number of employees? We know that Twitter already had some security issues with their God Mode admin panel.
I really wonder, for example, whether no angry ex-employees still have access to critical systems or data. This is usually pretty well regulated in large organizations like twitter, but since they've lost the majority of their staff, who knows when the people looking after that left?
I'm not convinced Twitter had a ton of bloat. (Most of the teams actually involved don't seem to think so). Just because Elon can't understand something, doesn't make that thing "bloat".
Twitter definitely had a few weird features that could be cut (the audio podcasting thing, for example). But calling most of Twitter microservices "bloat" is about as dumb as calling a cars Seatbelt and Airbag and Crumple Zones and that spare tire in the trunk "bloat" -- it's only "bloat" if you assume all people will always be perfect and no one will ever make a mistake anywhere, and nothing bad will ever happen.
Company soft killed the product, everybody left, they didn't hire anyone to replace. We went from 20 engs to 3. Worst codebase ever made by ex FANGs hotshots who thought they understood something about system architecture. Very "clever" and complicated. Data consistency issues happening everyday, likely due to misuse of messagging queues. Chargebacks being ignored and mailed in physical letters every month. A couple of millions going through the platform every year.
My task was to run a team of mostly juniors maintaining and adding features to that mess.
I had no clue what that codebase was doing. We just left things as they were, fixing fires as they came. Nothing too bad happened. Slowly built a leaner replacement for some components. We simplified things over time and we even rebuilt some of the knowledge of the old platform, which helped with the daily outages.
The issues started happening not as often. Eventually. I moved on from that company, removing again a big chunk of knowledge. Over time I've heard tales of other people coming in and rebuilding that knowledge, over and over.
The platform is still standing.
It's a tricky one, because on one hand it increase my trust that their system was built robustly, but at the same time the passage of time would increase the chance of unseen/unaddressed "wear an tear" (bot figurative and literal) that might be going unaddressed, or under-addressed. But we have no view into that.
We won't really know until they suffer a major problem whether or not they have enough staff yet to keep sufficient maintenance going that such an event doesn't cascade into something much worse and/or whether or not they will be able to recover from it in a reasonable amount of time.
Horrible systems can survive, but often they survive through sheer luck.
I think it's hard to just use time as a measure. If there are no security issues and they add no features, then things should run fine. Which, ironically points to how solid the team was that was fired.
Of course if Twitter not only limps along, but thrives in this new setup then I'll definitely change my opinion. Being in the US, this might end up the case while Twitter for the rest of the world falls apart.
Keep in mind, that I think Twitter was bloated and needed a big shakeup. Randomly dumping people and those who tried to correct me is not the heuristic I would have used.
With that said, Twitter still has 2 huge problems. No vision and saddled with an enormous amount of debt. Right now, Musk is taking the PE approach to cut and milk what's there. The problem is, there isn't much to milk.
This is an excellently apt analogy, in light of Twitter's new owner.
Unless the company that creates it is owned by Elon ;)
Because they work for companies where the product would fail within days of them being fired themselves.
Of course it could go either way but the jury is currently out. It’s entirely possible that severe company-impairing technical breakdowns are already in progress and unrecoverable.
Or maybe not.
On the other hand. As an engineer, we tend to attach way too much self importance to our roles. Like if we're not there entering the "numbers" 4 6 15 16 24 32 every 108 minutes, the entire business is going to crumble. So... this is one I'm going to watch with a keen eye.
The truth in retrospect is that it was my fault (and my upper leadership's) that I wasn't replaceable. I created a knowledge silo around myself since I wanted to move fast and figured I could prevent the team from being bogged down in complexity if I just handled it myself and while that worked in regards to delivering out-sized results for the available bandwidth, it also was a risk that materialized as described above. So while I do believe that everyone should be replaceable and it's their responsibility to be, it's not always the case and products can live and die by it.
I worked at a company where everything hinged solely on one guy working from another country. When he left, loss of institutional knowledge took about three days to show real effects as things also came down crashing.
I worked hard to make _myself_ replaceable for when I left, it was a pretty good exercise, but me having that degree of freedom was symptomatic of the problems of the company.
That said you can replace people and build back that institutional knowledge -- both loss and gain take significant amount of time.
For the type of jobs at hand here, One of the things I learned is that nobody is essential. Even that person you think is essential.
Never I have encountered an engineer that thought that.
> Never I have encountered an engineer that thought that.
there are people all up and down this page saying effectively just that. well i guess i'm assuming most of these people are engineers in the software sense of the word.
Ok. So where are they? SpaceX obviously didn't copy a working system, as it took many failures for SpaceX's reusable rockets to work.
> Are you claiming SpaceX doesn't use COPV's, or that don't benefit from prior COPV research?
I was very clear on what SpaceX's success was. Has NASA ever re-used a booster?
> Can you elaborate on what you think SpaceX's key advantages are?
I was very clear on that, too. They provide a cheap way into space, something that NASA has utterly failed on (and every other government, too).
I meant what advantages do they have to facilitate that. You gave me the outcome but haven’t shown any understanding of the why. When somebody asks what makes Tom Brady special, saying “because he wins more” isn’t really saying much and doesn’t take show you know much about football.
I ask because I suspect you will just give some rote public vs. private answer but that’s only a superficial reason. There are underlying systemic reasons, but you need to remove yourself of that false dichotomy first to get there.
FWIW, I’m not a big fan of NASA. I think they are largely a broken culture and a shell of what they were in the 1960s.
I've said it over and over. The profit motive.
> (2) No effect on intellectual property law
> Nothing in this section shall be construed to limit or expand any law pertaining to intellectual property.
If section 230 from the CDA of 1996 provided immunity from copyright claims, there would be no reason to include procedural requirements for processing claims in the DMCA of 1998.
Many jurisdictions take an even harsher line when it comes to being complicit in intellectual property abuse. We saw this famously with The Pirate Bay, Napster etc.
Okay, so two booleans, and checks of those booleans in a couple of algorithms.
This still isn't a huge change, it's not completely new functionality. Once again, not saying it's small, but it definitely isn't huge.
Plus I really don’t think you can compare B2B payments for premium API access to end user payments. Not least because they aren’t going to be going the same route: a huge number of them will be via Apple or Google in-app purchasing. Ask anyone who works with those systems, it isn’t a quick plug and play job.
In general though, a new subscription tier, feed algorithm changes, UI changes… if these aren’t, what is a big change in your book?
It seems self-evident that the bot was considered low priority, since it isn’t working anymore. But nobody is disputing that: they’re saying that the fact that it is low priority does not bode well.
If it was a prerequisite to land $100M ARR from all the media properties’ marketing budgets to advertise the multi-billion dollar pipelines of the movie and entertainment industry, that lil’ bot was the gate to $11,415 per hour of revenue at risk if its uptime failed to sufficiently please the attorneys and auditors from those customers.
And that's a very progressive sensibility towards corporations, and precisely why they actually like them (what's more appealing to a progressive other than a huge centrally-planned organization run by credentialed experts) despite claiming otherwise.
And corporations are not generally progressive in outlook either, there are too many values higher up on ladder of concerns.
Advertisers are one subset that bring a rough approximation of democratic to their decisions, knowing that each person in the market they hope to reach will be deploying something like a vote with their dollars. As with any democratic approximation, it's only progressive to the extent that population is, though it's poor compared to other democratic mechanisms.
You can take issue with whether democratic decisions are good decisions, of course, but that's likely to be an unpopular opinion for obvious reasons. And hey, I hear the person currently running twitter recently went so far as to say vox populi vox dei. Was his expertise in running corporations part of what you meant to scare quote, or is your challenge to expertise, shall we say, selective?
While most aren't self-conscious enough to realize it now, they still love corporations as evidenced by how they zealously defend them when they serve progressive ambitions and power.
https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691169590/il...
That's a single copy of all tweets. Not fanning out to up to 100 million inboxes. Completely different problems.
You keep citing raw hardware speeds of a single machine, yet we're talking about the feasibility of a distributed system being able to sustain random bursts of write amplification factor of 100 million across a decentralized database, with ideally exactly-once write semantics even if a failure occurs mid-way -- and that's all in addition to whatever the normal baseline write activity of all "normal" users with more reasonable follower counts. Again, completely different problems.
> I don't think so. Not with tweets.
So in your design, if the singular data center that maintains all users' inboxes goes offline for a long period of time, the entire product just goes down. And you think that's acceptable for a business valued in the tens of billions of dollars?
You seem absolutely convinced that a massive social network can be run on a shoestring budget with tiny staff, and no amount of evidence from someone like me (who actually worked on this stuff in depth, and posts with my real name, and expertise in profile) will convince you otherwise, so I suppose I should just stop replying to you.
I think my assumptions are just a lot more relaxed than yours. This isn't a trading platform I don't see why you need exactly-once write semantics.
> Not fanning out to up to 100 million inboxes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_...
There are only 6 users with 100m+ followers and they avg a lot less than a daily tweet. @BBCWorld is #50 and it drops to 38m accounts. #1000 has 2 million followers.
> And you think that's acceptable for a business valued in the tens of billions of dollars?
Elon by his own admission grossly overpaid for it. Twitter has hardly ever eeked out a profit, it is not worth tens of billions of dollars. Nothing much would happen if it went down for a bit except maybe bored journalists would report on it thus, as ever, driving even more users to the website. But that is neither here nor there.
More to the point: if Elon and Obama and Bibster tweeted in the same minute (what are the odds) you would, gasp, have to stagger the fan out of the updates. That's alright too, for Twitter. It isn't really actually real time.
Those follower counts are also grossly inflated and as you understand yourself only a small fraction of them are online using the app at the same time as the person is tweeting. By the time they do check they might never even see the tweet.
To the people offline you don't need to fan out in a timely manner.
In short I believe the write amplification is much closer to 1 million than 100 million even with the pathological cases. And beefy enough hardware can handle those peaks.
Here's another way to think about it: Elon has 118m followers and just posted twitter has 260m daily average users. He is a bit like Tom from MySpace, half the users on the website are subscribed to his updates (not exactly really but for simplicity).
I think it is perfectly alright if it takes a full minute until all those users see his latest meme. It is very unlikely that even a quarter of all his followers are using the app during that exact minute, so we're talking 30m writes in 60 seconds. Big whoop.
> You seem absolutely convinced that a massive social network can be run on a shoestring budget with tiny staff
I would bet a budget of say <$1 billion/year and 100 engineers for the core functionality as is.
> no amount of evidence from someone like me (who actually worked on this stuff in depth, and posts with my real name, and expertise in profile) will convince you otherwise
Neither one of us presented any evidence, just opinions as outsiders, as part of an informal conversation. An appeal to authority isn't an impressive argument, I am also from this industry and with similar experience.
There is no need to take things personally. I think we just have a very different estimation of just how much activity twitter sees at peak and how strict the requirements are.
World leaders use Twitter. It's a major international one-to-many communication platform. If tweets are lost or duplicated, it makes the platform look unreliable (because it literally would be) and as well as potentially making the tweeter look incompetent for posting twice. World leaders don't like to look incompetent, that can cause really bad things to happen...
> @BBCWorld is #50 and it drops to 38m accounts. #1000 has 2 million followers.
Even a write amplification factor of 100,000 is extremely problematic for the fully-materialized inbox model. A lot of prominent twitter users have followings larger than that.
> To the people offline you don't need to fan out in a timely manner.
So now you're adding additional systems on top, in order to scale. That's good, I guess you're starting to see that the problem is more complex than just spraying out every tweet to every follower's inbox. Now consider that when you actually build and scale a system like this, you'll need to keep doing that in a bunch of different areas, and the complexity keeps snowballing.
> And beefy enough hardware can handle those peaks.
There's no way to fit every users' fully-materialized inbox feed on one machine, so we're definitely talking about a large distributed storage tier / database here. Will you use "beefy" hardware for every single shard of your inbox storage tier?
> It is very unlikely that even a quarter of all his followers are using the app during that exact minute, so we're talking 30m writes in 60 seconds. Big whoop.
Once again, this really isn't like doing 30m write ops on a single box. It's queueing the writes via RPCs across a huge storage tier, while also needing some way to handle timeouts, retries, failovers on either side of the operation. All while the "normal" background level of thousands of tweets per second is happening from everyone else.
> An appeal to authority isn't an impressive argument, I am also from this industry and with similar experience. > There is no need to take things personally.
I've literally built a reverse-chronological social network activity feed implementation, which successfully scaled to over 110 million posts/day. (For sake of comparison, Twitter was around 500 million tweets/day at that time, so this was def smaller than Twitter, but still quite large.) It did not use an inbox model. Took many months of my life, some of the most rigorous work I've ever done. My teammates and I evaluated several alternative designs, including fully-materialized inbox, running all the numbers in depth and building several prototypes. The takeaway was that a naive fully-materialized inbox would be completely and ludicrously infeasible in terms of necessary hardware footprint.
Separately, I've also spent years working on database infrastructure at extreme scale, including one of the largest relational database footprints on earth. I have a very good sense of what this requires. Yes, I'm posting "opinions", but they are based on many years of direct personal expertise.
Scaling a social network involves a massive number of challenging problems. Faster hardware doesn't magically make these problems go away. And while I haven't worked at Twitter, up until this month I knew four infra/backend engineers working there, and they're some of the best engineers I've ever known in my 17 year career.
I'm taking your comments personally because your comments are offensive. You're blindly saying I need to "refresh [my] assumptions" about a topic I'm literally an expert in. You're claiming Twitter could use some completely asinine overly-simplistic feed model, as if no one else ever thought of that, which would strongly imply every infra engineer at Twitter must be an idiot. In another subthread on this page, you wrote "The job cuts are clearly justified because of the extremely toxic work culture / cult" and it is necessary to "replace every single person who worked there and the entire tech stack". Seriously, WTF? These are hard-working humans with lives and families, they don't deserve this shit from their employer, and certainly not from offensive pseudonymous randos who have no idea what they're talking about. Have some empathy.
Your choice of wording suggests that you find the phrase or concept offensive, which would be understandable. But attacking the phrase as a talking point is shallow.
dont try and be sherlock holmes...
also please do not concern yourself with my feelings. We do not know each other.
> But attacking the phrase as a talking point is shallow.
The performative language of culture war vocabularies is interesting to point out, specially when talking points get virality quicker and quicker.
> the orthodoxy of the week.
funny wordchoice when being questioned about using the phrase du jour.
If you don't mind me asking what are this parallels between children care and big tech companies that have appeared over the years?
what circles are those? I cannot seem to find any references to the term beyond this year.
> for large tech companies it has seen a resurgence.
it seems more like a bad attempt at insulting people who are trying to make work less shit. i will save my opinion at whether those attempts are more or less useful, but seems entirely another dumb culture war
They already had billing integration, even if you're accessing it via a new route, and they already had a boolean on your account.
Like I said, not small, but not exactly huge either.
Suddenly that simple change had the potential for catastrophic consequences.
I'll try to illustrate a more nuanced perspective. It's no secret that NASA levies a lot of tough requirements. For example, contractors must have a robust pressure systems program. This includes managing/certifying systems all the way down do small air compressors in a vehicle maintenance shop. Same goes for software quality and a million other aspects of spaceflight. Contractors hate these types of requirements because they're expensive. Many within NASA hate them, too. Certainly some of this is bureaucratic overreach, but a lot of it is also good, sound engineering practice. There are mechanisms to waive these requirements, but few people want to openly do so for a variety of reasons. I could go deeper into the why but it's a bit of a digression.
So what does this have to do with SpaceX? CCP, IMO, is a clever work-around to avoid accountability to these requirements. NASA, rather than buying a product, is buying a service. So even though NASA expects them to meet those same requirements, there's very little oversight to force them to do so. Some people have raised flags about these issues but are essentially told to stand down because they don't want to tell the contractors how to provide the service. It also gives NASA a smokescreen to get what they want (faster, cheaper production) while avoiding accountability when things go wrong (they can always point to the requirements they claimed they wanted, but didn't provide the oversight to ensure). NASA knows those requirements rapidly increase costs and on one hand they don't want them, but on the other they want plausible deniability if something goes wrong. Minimizing requirements can streamline the process. The fact that they manage way less requirements is why SpaceX can have a single 23 year-old managing a program that takes a team at NASA. In other respects, it turns a blind eye to the very requirements that manage risk.
E.g., Falcon 9 had supplier quality issues that lost a rocket [1]. Most who work with flight hardware would be surprised to learn SpaceX wasn't applying industry-standard supplier quality checks on critical flight material. Once a mishap happens, NASA gets to swoop in and investigate. And the result is SpaceX now has multiple reliability layers to mitigate that risk. It's not that it was some unknown risk, it's just that they weren't managing it properly. To the uninitiated it looks like they were running a tight, streamlined ship but in practice it was being played a little too fast and loose. Boeing did the same with Starliner but had a bad roll of the dice. The real question is how many times can this happen before SpaceX starts to look like their bloated competitors? NASA could do the same by just peeling back requirements and upping the risk.
Starliner also had it's own host of quality issues as part of CCP. People at NASA were concerned, but their hands were essentially tied until there was a smoking gun in the form of a botched demo that risked crashing into ISS. Again, the "profit motive" at work can sometimes mean more risk than intended.
As a different example of risk, SpaceX can create an assembly line of manufacturing to reduce financial risk. NASA can't because they they are also forced to reduce political risk by spreading programs all around the country. It's not that NASA is so incompetent that they can't figure it out, it's that they are managing a different set of risks. NASA manages the risk that ensures funding for SpaceX while SpaceX manages the financial risk of manufacturing. It's a symbiotic relationship, but one that can be misconstrued by the ignorant as some public/private dichotomy.
Yet another example of risk: Lots of people want to point to SpaceX rapid iteration as a strong point. It is, but people also need to understand that rapid iteration is also at odds with reliability. SpaceX may just quickly change a design (see their COPV mishap) but it's up to NASA to figure out the true failure mechanisms on their own dime. This rapid iteration is also why Tesla's quality measures are usually quite bad. They can't stabilize a design or supply chain long enough to generate high quality.
Suffice to say, there's lots of good and bad tradeoffs of the public/private dynamic, but just saying "it's the profit motive" explains none of them.
[1] https://parabolicarc.com/2016/06/28/nasa-investigation-space...
I call these sort of folks (very) smart juniors. Probably can whip leetcode or whiteboard tests like few others (after some preparation). Then you let them roam wild on your product, because they're of course experts. Then some period passes, and/or they leave, and you can only cry. Complex hard-to-grok approaches to simple problems that have tons of caveats/edge cases, no documentation of work done and why it was done as it was, because they are oh-so-cool and such lowly tasks are for peasants.
Either they have no clue how long term sustainable company looks like or they don't care, in any case not a good fit.
These days I go in opposite direction as probably most here - FAANG type of company (or cargo-culted startup) is a big fat warning sign when hiring. Unless I would be working at some wannabe another FAANG startup, which I am not, I would sure as hell make sure the person can actually deliver long term improvements for everybody and not just upp their CV with another bleeding edge technology and move, leaving more damage than added value and making everything worse.
https://daedtech.com/how-developers-stop-learning-rise-of-th...
This can be something as silly as fan groups of a certain tv show, or as dangerous as propaganda from a foreign nation.
"rigorous certifications" - just a degree... not so rigorous
What happens if someone like Bytedance decides to launch a Twitter clone that does everything better?
Meta takes a lot of criticism for being Meta but you have to hand it to them, they've copied every other innovative social media feature that has shown up in competitors' products.
Does Twitter have enough staff to launch a major new feature?
The problem is that Twitter is now saddled with debt. It probably can't make investments in new products, and we can speculate whether it has the necessary headcount in the sales staff needed to maintain advertiser relationships that pay 90% of its revenue. [1, 2] Enterprise clients usually expect a dedicated CSM relationship.
That's exactly what happened to Toys R Us, which slid into liquidation due to the debt saddled on it by its private equity firm rather than a fundamental issue with its business.
In 2021, Twitter had a net loss of $221.4 million, and in 2020 they lost over $1 billion. Revenue was around $5 billion in 2021, about 90% from advertisers. [1]
The company (not Elon) is now loaded with $13 billion in debt. [2]
> Last year, Twitter’s interest expense was about $50 million. With the new debt taken on in the deal, that will now balloon to about $1 billion a year. Yet the company’s operations last year generated about $630 million in cash flow to meet its financial obligations. > > That means that Twitter is generating less money per year than what it owes its lenders. The company also does not appear to have a lot of extra cash on hand. While it had about $6 billion in cash before Mr. Musk’s buyout, a large portion of that probably went into the cost of closing the acquisition. > > That gives Mr. Musk little wiggle room, Mr. Pascarella said. “They are essentially going to take all the financial resources of the company and just pour it into servicing the debt,” he said.
I personally don't see how Twitter gets out of this without bankruptcy. I think Twitter can go the next 5 years without an infrastructure outage and still likely ends up bankrupt.
[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-elon-musks-twitter-faces-mo...
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/30/technology/elon-musk-twit...
Take a look at Twitter's Income Statement from 2021: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TWTR/financials/
I think the income statement shows that it would be difficult for Twitter to find $2-3 billion of expenses to cut and still remain a competitive, functional company. You're talking about cutting total expenses by over 50%, including expenses that are not salary.
2021 total expenses of $4.8 billion on a revenue of $5 billion. $1.8 billion cost of revenue, $3 billion operating expense. Out of the operating expense, $1.175 billion is in Selling & Marketing Expense. $1.25 billion in R&D.
Let's say Twitter cuts R&D to $0, that's a $1.25 billion savings. How long can a social media company remain competitive putting $0 into R&D? Are there any examples of any software-adjacent company surviving that spends $0 on R&D?
If they cut SG&A, that will impact revenue negatively. Activities like marketing and sales have an ROI. You spend money to make money. Twitter was spending $600 million a year on SG&A in 2014 when they had less than half their current level of daily active users (DAUs). Twitter has a product, its daily active users. If they can't sell that product to its customer (advertisers) because it doesn't have enough sales staff to physically make the required phone calls (yes, they do that sort of thing with large advertisers), they risk entering the death spiral.
Cost of Revenue: I don't think this line item can be cut beyond a certain level. This is the direct cost of delivering the product. Anything that isn't employee salary can't be cut very easily. Twitter can't turn off servers and sell off data centers without impacting the product.
Twitter had more than 7,500 employees in 2021.
If they cut 80% of staff, that's 5,000 employees gone (and don't forget that those cut employees will still count as 1/4 of an employee for the next year due to the severance payment).
If each employee represents $300,000 in total expense (a very generous estimate), that's only $1.5 billion in savings, and for the first year the savings is only $825 million due to the severance payments.
Okay, maybe Twitter can raise revenue with Twitter Blue. They'll need to pick up a smidge over 15 million paid Verified users in order to cover the $1 billion interest expense. Twitter currently has 400,000 Verified users, ~240 million DAUs, so they need 6.25% of their global user base to purchase a subscription at $8/month. Out of Twitter's DAUs, you'll need to omit most users from countries that won't generally pay $8/month, like India, Brazil, and Indonesia. [3]
For reference, Spotify costs $1.46/month in India.
We could make a rough guess at this by assuming that the 155 million people in the US, Japan, and UK will pay $8/month for Twitter Blue, so you'd need close to 10% of the affluent user base paying for Twitter Blue.
For a benchmark, Discord makes almost all of its revenue from Nitro subscribers. In 2020 it had 14 million DAUs, with $130 million in annual revenue, which means with the $99/annual fee Discord had 1.3 million paid subscribers. In other words, about 10% of Discord users are paid subscribers. [1]
If Twitter can get the same subscriber rate with Blue, it'll reach $1 billion they need to pay off their loan interest, assuming Twitter Blue incurs no additional cost.
The problem is, it can't do that without that pesky R&D that we were talking about earlier. Discord is built around the concept that Nitro offers tangible benefits to paid membership. What features can Twitter build with a skeleton crew that will convince 10% of their users to pay for the service? Twitter Blue currently represents very basic functionality. [4]
I haven't even talked about the fact that I'm just talking interest payments for the debt, and the fact that Twitter wasn't profitable to begin with!
[1] https://www.businessofapps.com/data/discord-statistics/
[2] https://www.businessofapps.com/data/twitter-statistics/
[3] https://www.statista.com/statistics/242606/number-of-active-...
[4] https://help.twitter.com/en/using-twitter/twitter-blue-featu...
My senior PM, who has experience in several big companies, and was well aware of our team stll took a couple weeks to get up to speed with how everything worked etc.
I don't think her onboarding day counts to call Google an adult day care. And seeing things like free lunch and a treadmill desks are just tools companies like google use to keep you longer in the office and maximise your time not things to take care of you. Its more work, but mango flavoured.
Work is work, but the same way we think of weekends as normal, or 8 hours as a normal amount of time we could think about 4 days, or having a gym next to our work as work. Being sad at work isn't a feature in my opinion
Also note that I never personally said Google is adult day care, I was simply pointing to a culprit in the trend.
perhaps we jsut have different definitions of adult day care. But that girl had a coffee and some snacks in the office. Which seems entirely reasonable. Being able to work from the rooftop might be a bit "fancier" but tbh I have seen dudes take work calls in rooftop bars for years and no one calls Morgan Stanley an adult day care.
I thought the adult day care was more related companies having talking sticks and mental health days. Which sure some do, and I can find it silly sometimes, but who knows how dysfunctional that team was and whether that works for them. I am sure if I explained to my parents what Agile is, they would also laugh in my face. Our work can look silly to others but work for us.
She didnt show any of her work but i dont think a video of her adjusting roadmaps and having a call with the stake holder of the API team their deadline is blocked by would really make for good instagram content.
I have a friend who was a mechanic, and he used to always do a drive around the block when a hard job (like an engine change) was done to make sure it was all alright. He would tell you about driving a nice car etc, but I didnt just imagine he didn't work the rest of the day, that was just the part he shared. Same reasoning with that PM. (Funny that both of them were PM thought).
idk the whole "adult day care" seems needlessly antagonistic for how people make work be less garbage. Specially holding against them things like free food which are "perks" only offered to keep people working longer
2. I should have looked at your comment history before my first response. I really would like to assume good intent. I don't think I'm going to find it.
When a manager comes on here and says "these workers think they're important but they're just shuffling numbers around" that deserves to be called out.
I've told this example before, but my close friend and roommate did a year at Twitter in 2019. He was tasked with implementing versions of simple, relaxing JS games like Tetris which would be used by Twitter's moderation staff when they felt they had accumulated too much stress and needed a break. He was making $300k USD to copy an open-source version of Tetris to be played by paid staff! This was actually one of his more engaging projects, most days he said that he wrote 0 code at all. He got great reviews and was being encouraged by his manager to pursue the senior track; from what I could observe from the outside, there was a complete misalignment of goals at pretty much all levels.
Perhaps we disagree which is totally fine, but I think this type of allocation of eng resources absolutely counts as "bloat". You may see that work as comparable to a seatbelt or crumple zone, but I personally see it as more comparable to all the other expensive, useless nonsense which plagues modern cars.
(1) = https://twitter.com/rahaeli/status/1594724749954863105?s=20&...
1) Twitter could easily live without 10-30% staff and there was some bloat, positions to be cut
2) Believing that 90% of organization does nothing useful is insane.
Oh my god, this is incredible. Thank you for this story.
Now overall I wouldn't say this is unusual in tech. I know plenty of people at other major tech companies, including other FAANGs, that say the exact same thing. But just because its appears to be a industry wide issue does not make it okay. It seems to me like that this would signify bloat. You only have enough work for your developers to be working half time.
We aren't even getting into the whole rest and vest. That has been discussed here many times: https://www.google.com/search?q=rest+and+vesters+paid+for+no...
No one is asking them to write code 40 hours a week. That is not realistic in coding. Most developers' jobs include a lot more than coding. They are saying they spend 15-20 hour a week on all job related work. Whether that is coding, code review, engineering, testing, research, documentation, meetings ect.
This made me laugh. Twitter Blue will have to be great for people to pay. Out of all your numbers, I wonder how many of those 155M users in the US actually post anything that would find value in Blue? My guess is that we're seeing Pareto in action where 80% of the Twitter content comes from 20% of the users.
I heard an interesting take today from someone in the social space. Basically as soon as they heard the price paid for Twitter, they knew it was over. It's just too much debt to both get out from under and move the company in the right direction.
I've started to come around that maybe it is that simple. Musk saw the debt payment and just cut the most easily cuttable expense in the short term - people. Bankruptcy seems inevitable.
The leaked company communications are damning. Here's your brand new owner, richest guy in the world, implying the company might not survive another year or two, for a company that's been public, mature, and stable for years. It's completely insane.
Like I alluded to my comment, Discord's revenue story is essentially a best-case scenario type of benchmark. It's very unlikely that Twitter or anyone else in the social media space can replicate Discord's paid user share. Discord has been designing their product around a specific niche and optimizing for non-advertising revenue since inception. Twitter is designed for advertisers. It was never intended to be a paid product. They'll be lucky if 1% of their users bite.
If you buy the narrative that 80% of employees were bloat and you can cut them without impacting top line, then it will work. If you think he's gutted essentially activities that will sink the ship, then it won't
A friend of mine tried to tell me that Elon had some type of new computing technology that would let them turn off most of their servers because they could fit all of the tweets in less space.
He blocked me after I told him he had confused Elon Musk with gzip.
But's not. Twitters product is ad inventory and their ad placement platform, and the engine driving engagement that boosts their ad inventory by reordering the timeline to keep people scrolling. Those are the hard parts.
"Just" delivering and storing tweets is easy. If you ignore the nasty business of the moderation. And most people have never even visited analytics.twitter.com and seen how much data is available to them about their own tweets, much less looked at ads.twitter.com and seen how precisely they can be targeted, and the precision Twitter offers in what kind of things you can pay for (engagement, follows, media views, clicks). And they've certainly not tried running ad campaigns in those categories, and seen how good Twitter are at showing your ads mostly to people doing what you're paying for.
Musk's actions makes me wonder how well he understood the complexity of Twitter too. Surely he must have looked at those other aspects of Twitter before he made his bid.
Please tell us in detail about the Twitter stack.
Because I always find it fascinating how people think they can estimate the effort to maintain it whilst having next to no understanding what so ever of the tech stack.
1. A single person can run a mastodon instance in their spare time. Spinning up some containers for the app, a background worker and a database is quite simple.
2. Modern devops tooling makes it fairly trivial to spin up 10k instances of a container instead of 1, by just altering a number in a k8s manifest somewhere.
3. Ergo, a single person equipped with modern tooling (and sufficient funding) could spin up any number of mastodon instances.
4. Twitter is just a big mastodon instance.
5. Now that keeping everything up is sorted, add another 99 devs for feature development and you are done.
Now this is obviously faulty logic because points 3 and 4 are very false, but they look reasonable enough at first glance.
15 database admins
10 linux sys admins
5 kubernetes specialists
10 windows tech support
25 front end developers
15 back end developers w/ Scala
10 machine learning experts
Whether that makeup could or couldn't do it is a different question, or whether it would be a different mix; all of that is up for debate, but the 1/99 ratio is just one very specific, extreme, and laughable mix for anyone who has supported a system of any real size.
Yes, using open source code built and maintained by 732 contributors: https://github.com/mastodon/mastodon/graphs/contributors
These can make for a massive hairball of complexity that can swell the number of people needed to support it.
This reminds me of a talk I once saw by a Netflix SRE, who showed a crazy convoluted mess of a diagram with thousands of crisscrossing lines going everywhere, and him screaming "No one understands Netflix!!!"
Source: Wikipedia pages for both
It was also pathetically unprofitable, and had serious problems with inappropiate child photos, gore etc.
Some of those problems require man power, there is no 10 man team who are very good at devops who can solve that.
THEY could probably do it with 100 people, YOU cannot.
100 people is most likely within the ballpark for a group of people whose sole purpose is to write and maintain twitter's tech stack. Unfortunately, that is not NEARLY the sole purpose of most people in businesses and that adds all kinds of productivity hits.
What happens is that people like yourself become convinced that's the only way to operate.
Likewise, bringing in Ad money would be a few more hundreds, because you need to chase leads in all countries.
Getting the Ads to work? That's tech and I'd be surprised if it was less than 100 people, too.
I subpoena telcos all the time. My sense is that the number is closer to 2 to 3 dozen.
Maybe the user facing site, but that's just the tip of the iceberg.
There are plenty of internal/backend/restricted systems to support and/or monetize this part.
And that's not counting the huge number of support people & moderators needed.
Making it globally available and legally compliant, that's where the next few thousand folks come in.
The people shouting loudly about how Twitter must have been so bloated are really just shouting their obvious inexperience working at global scales or their localized ambitions.
Could there be too many employees at Twitter? Sure. Most companies have dead weight. The number who were "extra" is probably not 9/10ths the employees though.
This is because you don't see the complexity. What you see as a Twitter user is a fraction of what's actually there.
You have to build a platform for ads. Not just serving ads, but allowing advertisers to prepare their collateral, preview them, get their results, and be billed. So that's an entire content and invoicing platform separate from your main feed.
And since your platform is all user generated content, you've got to build a moderation pipeline. A place for users to make reports, but also an interface for your content moderators to view content and make decisions. Oh, and while you're there you'd better build a portal for law enforcement to make data requests, along with your DMCA takedowns. Oh yeah, DMCA - that's another whole thing you've got to worry about.
Then the EU comes along and needs you to build something to support your GDPR obligations. Then India wants something similar, but only for its citizens. Your users also want verification, so better build that platform for securely verifying accounts and awarding checkmarks.
It snowballs. Was Twitter's engineering group bloated? Probably. Most large companies are. Could you run the whole Twitter tech stack as it exists today with a hundred people? Absolutely not.
It takes an army of engineers to build a resilient architecture at Twitter's scale.
And why are we even talking about "keeping the lights on"? Elon is claiming he's going to build a better video platform than YouTube, complete with better tools and for creators, for crying out loud.
"20 with cloud, 40 without. So much overlap between iOS, Android, and the web, three people can do all three. More for the backend." https://twitter.com/realGeorgeHotz/status/159371372367535718...
>Their moderation
Above I assumed their moderation team was probably larger than their engineering team, and mostly contractors. Thus I kept my estimate to the size of their engineering team.
It is so incomparable in scope I don't know why people bring it up.
They are entirely different technological challenges.
The point I’m trying to make is that it takes some effort (beyond just the plumbing) to create an experience that folks actually want to use on an ongoing basis
And a website is easy. You could do it with 1 person.
But Elon is such a machine, he could keep it running by himself.
Separately, some commenters here are flatly delusional about the effort to ship a site, android and ios apps, internal mod tools, help docs, support, and legal docs in 34 supported languages. Not to mention obeying laws in all the countries that implies.
Or image and video hosting! With recoding of videos, resizing of images, and the management of what is surely petabytes of images and videos with very high reliability! That is not a 1, 2, or 3 person job to do well.
Anyone who has used Twitter, have you seen any evidence they do this beyond extremely basic geographical targeting.
Like people keep listing off all this stuff when we’ve all used the site and can see if it does have a team working on it then they’re not doing it to the levels of their competitors.
Creating a husk of an app that looks vaguely like Twitter and supports hundreds of users is a weekend project for anyone with a modicum of talent; building a platform that supports billions of users and is monetized well enough to support itself is an entirely different beast.
1. The employer pays for your time, not your expertise or output.
It'd only be stealing from the company if the company cares about hours worked over output. If we explore this concept in a theoretical sense it's clear that it doesn't hold up.
You have two candidates One candidate has 20+ years of experience doing the exact thing you want them doing. This candidate says they'll work for you for $100k/yr, and they'll work 10 hours a week, complete all the relevant tasks, and very very rarely cause catastrophic errors or user-impacting bugs.
The other candidate is fresh out of school and says they'll work 50 hours a week. They'll complete the same amount of work as the first candidate, but they'll write more bugs, there will be more planning mistakes causing feature delays, and there's a reasonable chance of catastrophic failure due to debugging-in-prod shenanigans. They are also asking for $100k/yr.
Which candidate is better? Under the assumption that employers pay for _time_, the second candidate is better, but I'd argue most companies should prefer the first candidate.
2. More hours worked produces more or higher quality output.
There's a reasonable amount of research and practical anecdotes that disputes this recently (see companies that have gone to 32-hour 4-day workweeks with no reduction in productivity). Enough that at least, this point is seriously in doubt.
3. Twitter maybe pays a senior engineer $400k/yr under the expectation of their output for 40 hours, and if they get less it wasn't a fair deal.
This is a reasonable take, but Twitter (like most for-profit companies) theoretically has a performance evaluation system, managers, deadlines, etc. They're paying an engineer some amount of money for some amount of output. If that engineer produces that amount of output, Twitter is happy, the engineer is happy, there's no issue. If the engineer working 20 hours or less per week caused them to not meet their goals, then Twitter has the right to fire that employee. They don't, so that implies that they're happy with the arrangement.
4. The employee's salary is equal to their expected output/profit
If the Labor Theory of Value is correct, then companies derive their profits almost exclusively from the labor of their employees.
In order for an employee to "steal" from a company by under-producing work, they would have to earn more in salary + benefits than they earn the company from their work.
This is necessarily not the case (on average) in a for-profit company, because if the company makes a profit and uses those profits to grow or to issue dividends to shareholders, they have earned "_surplus value_" from the employees' labor (on average).
---
In any case, it's not necessarily true that you're wrong, but your comment was fairly dismissive and confrontational. There are a _lot_ of cultural and individual assumptions baked into how we exchange salary/wages for labor, and it's worth examining those before firing off moral judgments at one another for not working hard enough or working too much or whatever.
1. In the US at least we know a majority of the workers are hourly. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/johncaplan/2021/03/12/americas-...) So I would absolutely argue those people are paid for their time. I understand the scenario you laid out, but in a big corporation I do not think they would look at it like you are. They would simple look at who is costing the most. Both are costing 100k/yr so compare their output. Anytime their are massive layoffs, lots of important people are let go. This is because often times the people doing the firing, do not know the employees. They are simply lines on a spreadsheet to them. So in your situation above after a mass firing often times the candidate fresh out of school will be the one left.
2. I personally completely agree with you here. From my experience there is absolutely a burn out point. However major corporations do not see it this way at all. They absolutely believe throwing hours at problems brings about solutions. It doesn't matter to them if its making existing employees work 4 extra hours a day or hiring a new employee. It matters which is cheaper in the end. If the position is salaried its cheaper to have existing employees work more. Look at what musk is asking at twitter. If it is hourly, often times its easier to part ways with the burned out workers and hiring new ones. Look at amazons turn over rates.
3. I agree that Twitter gets to decide the expected compensation for work. But musk now owns twitter. He gets to decided what twitter does and doesn't expect from its employees. He made it clear he is very unhappy with how the arrangement was, and what he expects in the future.
4. I would disagree with you here. An employee can steal from a company many ways. For example, an employee could steal the source code from some twitter service that is considered a company secret. In this case, Twitter is paying an employee x amount for y work. Musk has decided what y work is. If an employee decides to not fulfill y work, and still take there whole pay, how is that not a form of stealing? If they're hourly employees they call it timesheet fraud. The idea that an employee can only steal if the are paid more than they bring in is pretty interesting but I think we would be hard pressed to find a single major corporation that views it that way. I think close to 100% of them would go after an employee spending 50% of their time working on non work related tasks.
A vast majority of the assumptions are based on them being the norm in corporate America which twitter is apart of.
We're talking about IT employees. Unless someone was a contractor, most IT employees (white collar workers in general) are exempt, and not tracked or paid hourly.
https://twitter.com/settings/your_twitter_data/twitter_inter...
>> "These are some of the interests matched to you based on your profile, activity, and the Topics you follow. These are used to personalize your experience across Twitter, including the ads you see. You can adjust your interests if something doesn’t look right. Any changes you make may take a little while to go into effect."
They're not good at identifying interests and making them targetable, but they try.
SpaceX is an interesting result, but it is starting to look more like a fluke than what we'd expect from him. Perhaps rocket scientists "get him" and understand the stakes better, after all, if you screw up a rocket you could die in the aftermath.
Tesla is certainly similar stakes -- except one mistake can kill every passenger on the road instead of your fellow employees. Twitter is basically 0-stakes, and is unlikely to take itself that seriously. If they screw up, maybe a bad government won't get overthrown somewhere, or trolls will take over the internet. But mostly, people will survive -- or rather, the outcomes are far more abstract.
He doesn't seem like a good fit for this kind of environment.
Mainly the project manager.
> What about user testing and customer development?
Testing could be done by everyone, mainly the project manager, although you could perhaps add a tester to the team. Don't know what customer development is.
> By “graphic design”, do you mean User Interface design? If so, who is responsible for the user experience beyond just UI?
Yes, UI design. The graphic designer would be primarily responsible for UX, but also the project manager and developers.
This is based on my experience with mobile app development. Right now, it's a fairly complex product, users often say that it's much better for many use cases than the alternative by Google, which I guess may be developed by a 10x larger team.
Rode map is just: keep it working, or whatever EM twitted about hour ago :)
But I agree it's way to optimistic number. You need at least a few for each platform, just because of bus factor, you also need people to keep in touch with Apple/Google reps etc., making sure bills are paid etc.
I imagine it will mostly be just minor tweaks and no major features, you can easily do both mobile targets by cca 10 people, not working crazy hours. There are plenty of successful apps with smaller teams, that make it work.
Eh, tossing the direct comparison to Twitter out here because they seem to have gone too far the other way, this is much like saying "I can make 1,000,000 screws a day, so assembling at least 100 cars a day should be easy".
I am not saying that writing twitter like app is easy, but writing it and keeping it running are two different things.
If you are not adding new features, you are just mostly keeping up with Android/Apple platforms, which can be annoying, but not that difficult.
> also need people to keep in touch with Apple/Google reps etc.
You certainly don't need people specifically for this task.
I mean, a mediocre complexity app doesn't need more than one developer for a "slow improvement mode".
How many bug reports do you think the Twitter site and apps get each day? How many employees do you think it takes just to triage them?
And moderation requieres humans but also a big tech team regarding bots, known offenders, etc.
it's not exclusively a tech problem but in a tech company tons of those responsabilities will be handled, addressed and solved by product and tech teams. And on 10 people, no matter how smart, they got no chance
I have no reason to distrust her and can't see any reason for her to lie about it.
0: https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-says-child-sexual-... 1: https://twitter.com/elizableu/status/1595109108608544768
You still have to read them to work out that user X saying they can't log in is the same as user Y saying authentication is failing at A stage, issue is present on B and C platforms version D.E
Further the issue of 'site using the wrong font' is not equally as important as 'site is exposing private user data'. And you're likely to get many people reporting the former, and maybe only one reporting the latter, so a sample isn't likely to catch the really important stuff.
Internal sources only, but topics like regionalization, localization, bespoke caching implementations, hardware-level optimizations, content moderation, policy adherence (e.g. GDPR, CCPA), long-term monetization (especially if supporting advertisers as a direct customer), 3P support, public APIs, documentation, SRE (a fledgling product doesn't need 5 9s), analytics (internal and for advertisers and 3P partners) and for the most part, security, are non-exhaustive examples of things you can mostly ignore when your product supports 10M users that are unavoidable when your product supports half of the US, a good chunk of the rest of the world, and other large businesses that consume you at large business scale.
So increasing your user base by one order of magnitude requires increasing the number of employees by more than two orders of magnitude? Rate of employee acquisition should probably never outpace rate of user acquisition, so I think that's a pretty clear sign that something was off.
As for sales staff being good at selling themselves, agreed, so maybe Musk's ruthless firing spree will end up as a good thing. Maybe.
I'd definitely like to hear more about the scale differences. So far at best, you've accounted for one order of magnitude. How do you explain the second?
So twitter can afford to deliver those tweets with higher maximum latency than WhatsApp.
And it's scaling when you need to keep low latencies, that really kills you, at least in my experience.
Twitter’s latency stems from calculating what tweets should show on a given request. Even if you try to show tweets from 1 minute ago, it’s hard to cache that stuff using traditional systems because of the fan out. If an account with 50 million followers tweets, you need to update 50 million timelines. How do you do that quickly?
And you would have to define maximum latency, is it seconds, minutes, hours? because you can’t have the timelines be inconsistent for too long as that leads to some people getting news faster than others.
now you have to deliver them, exactly one time, to each recipient or groups of recipients, through different network topologies, with different challenges and vastly different bandwidth and latency guarantees, in exact order, while also keeping track of who is online e who's not, and distributing that information in real time, only to the edge nodes that should know about it, all of that fully E2E encrypted but stored (indefinitely?) in case the recipient is currently offline and unless that recipient blocked the sender.
let's agree that both companies solve hard problems and that it's not the technical difficulties that make the two companies sizes so different.
ok, so this must be the hardest problem in the World, given that
- WhatsApp had 55 employees at the time of acquisition
- Twitter had 7,500 full-time employees at the end of October
But still, you can't compare apples to oranges.
right, because WhatsApp is a small company that makes very little money and has virtually no users and it mostly does not work nor scale...
We could all write that in a single weekend, if only we had no family to spend time with.
It's interesting how the prospective shifts when people are told "yeah, that's impressive per se, not very impressive compared to what the others are doing"
It's like discounting Sputnik 1 because the Russians did not employ an army of people selling ads, but just the people necessary to launch a satellite in orbit, which is actually the real achievement.
Anyway, from the news: Nearly 1200 software engineers left Twitter last week
Suddenly the Twitter engineering team sounds not so capable, which clearly is not the truth, the truth is that if you have hundreds of managers, you'll end up with hundreds of small teams competing to boost the ego of the manager, usually wasting thousands of man hours on miniscule returns (if not losses) while those power point slides will help someone else to get promoted for the new project that nobody uses.
Been there, done that, I don't know why a demographic so well versed in the dichotomies of the tech industry such us the users of HN is so baffled by the claim that 2,000 engineers for a single company that does what Twitter does is a complete waste of human potential.
Elon Musk is a person I would never work for and I think he's not even a good entrepreneur, but one thing he does right: he calls the shots and then executes them.
He said he would fire people and he did, many helped him by leaving on their own, which left Musk with the responsibility of proving he was right.
If Twitter will still be up and running in a year time, we can be sure that there were 1,200 engineer too many working there.
because, honestly, who really believes that the "influencers" will actually leave for the fediverse, where they'll have to work hard and compete with mere mortals, while they could keep cashing from advertisers to promote shit to their already established audience?
nobody believes that.
Also because the fact that Twitter will sell less ads in the next future doesn't mean that advertisers won't spend that money on Twitter, they will simply not pay Twitter, but the Twitter users. For them it's exactly the same thing, for Twitter celebrities it's a giant opportunity.
No, that just results in those businesses and brands leaving you, unless you can provide them a LARGE revenue stream that is impossible to get anywhere. A large brand will absolutely give up a little money just to spite you and your company for not treating them like god.
Obviously it's "top priority"! Is there any other acceptable answer? This answer means nothing except that he saw the question.
The reason for distrust is that the Q people have been insisting that Trump was secretly engaged in an enormous battle with pedophile rings, and using the typical, constant, and normal arrests of pedophile rings as proof. Now, another claim of a right-wing hero bravely picking up the sword and vanquishing the forces of evil, but again, no evidence! No proof at all. We just have to take her word for it, eh?
Of course, she can't give out the hashtags and allow independent verification, yet somehow hordes of pedophiles already know these hashtags? (How are they publishing those to each other, and if they have such a channel, why aren't they using that instead of Twitter?) So who is she keeping the hashtags from then?
So I remain super skeptical.
the answer means nothing, yes, the supposed good action that triggered the question is the important thing. The only relevant part of the article is them claiming to have verified it, so it's Business Insider's word added to hers.
I'm not even going to touch the conspiracy theory madness, it's irrelevant, and the person in question has zero signs of being afflicted by it, her entire existence in the platform seem to have been focused on actually working against the issue.
Its also been pretty widely publicized twitter's issue with CP[0][1][2][3], and given how hastags are the way you find things in the platform it's natural that's the way they'd do it.
> Of course, she can't give out the hashtags and allow independent verification, yet somehow hordes of pedophiles already know these hashtags?
She is giving it out to journalists and apparently they are confirming it, it's not a tragedy that someone does not want to amplify possible child abuse, actually teaching even more pedophiles how to find it.
> How are they publishing those to each other, and if they have such a channel, why aren't they using that instead of Twitter?
Twitter is protected by its sheer scale, is huge making detection harder than dedicated sites, and is far far more stable, safe and accessible than some darknet website they'd have to run themselves on average.
> So who is she keeping the hashtags from then?
From the general public to not further humilliate the victims, from other pedophiles because its not some hivemind, the list goes on.
Not everything is about Trump, and you're falling for the same level of conspiracy if behind all this out of all this you see pizzagate Qanon.
[0]: https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-brands-blast-tw... [1]:https://nypost.com/2021/01/21/twitter-sued-for-allegedly-ref... [2]:https://www.theverge.com/23327809/twitter-onlyfans-child-sex... [3]:https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/child-sex-abuser-twitter
For me, such a story is totally meaningless. It conveys no information about reality either way. The chances of truth or falsehood are exactly equal.
We have different epistemologies.
> from other pedophiles because its not some hivemind
Did you think critically about this? If so, for how long?
How are the pedophiles teaching the sooper-seekrit hashtags to each other? Is in the manual "So You've Decided to Become a Pedophile" that they send to new members of the vast conspiracy?
The problem with these conspiracy theories is that any inspection of how they might actually operate, day to day in the real world, is always neglected and handwaved away.
The whole point of a hashtag is that they spread virally, or are obvious terms. The very idea of a secret hashtag is an oxymoron.
Is there a reason to integrating ads into WhatsApp would require more than another 50 people? Twitter ads are certainly do not appear very complicated. The most complicated thing about Twitter is scale, which is why the comparison is made with WhatsApp.
> recommendations,
Does Twitter have recommendations? From what I understand, the front page was actively curated - that is, a human chose stories to put there. I guess you could count the god-awful default feed ordering as "recommendations", but there is nothing advanced about it.
> bots
If WhatsApp doesn't have bots, it's the only social media/chat app I've ever heard of that doesn't. What is needed for this other an an API?
> had to provide tooling for governments, regulators, content moderators etc.
I'm sure at least some of this exists for WhatsApp. Nevertheless, how many additional employees does this have take?
I am not sure why there is so pushback against the idea most companies are overstaffed. For the most part, yes, everyone has "work" to do. But most of the work is fundamentally unproductive. It's this way throughout the economy, but a few tech companies probably do represent extreme cases. I think the best argument for their case is that most of them are very profitable anyway (not Twitter, somehow), and they might as well throw money at thousands of people to do stuff in case one of them accidentally does something that ends up being wildly profitable. I am fairly neutral on the whole thing; I strongly dislike Elon, but I also think Twitter was horrifically mismanaged. While I doubt Twitter will come out better than it is, the idea that firing most of such a large organization would necessarily result in the immediate collapse of a mature product does not say much about the people that were fired.
I'm more sympathetic to the idea that it would get even worse over time, but I don't think there's anything necessary about this. You could focus on resolving longstanding issues while pausing most new work and probably come out perfectly fine.
You see a couple of ads mixed in your feed; behind that there's a big machine selling that space to advertisers and mixing it into the timeline of every user based on whatever profile Twitter has created for you. Then the advertisers want to know how their ads are doing, or they'll stop buying them…and you'll probably need to have salespeople to get them to put money into your ad system in the first place.
> I guess you could count the god-awful default feed ordering as "recommendations", but there is nothing advanced about it.
Just because you don't like the ordering doesn't mean it's not advanced.
> I am not sure why there is so pushback against the idea most companies are overstaffed.
Twitter could be overstaffed. In fact it probably was overstaffed. But it's not overstaffed in the tune of of "it should be 10 people working out of a garage".
This is not crazily complex, bleeding-edge tech. This is something fairly well-understood and at any rate done by a lot of teams in a lot of places. (Twitter's ad profiling also seems awful. Maybe I am hard to pin down.) Probably the most complicated part is coming up with data to make advertisers think their campaign is working. (I am extremely skeptical most ad spend is actually worthwhile.)
> Twitter could be overstaffed. In fact it probably was overstaffed. But it's not overstaffed in the tune of of "it should be 10 people working out of a garage".
I agree 10 is too low for anything but bare-bones keep-the-lights-on-this-month maintenance, but it seems likely you could have a great and functional Twitter run by ~200 employees. I've seen more done with less.
>provide tooling for governments
What tooling do they provide for governments?
so you mean that 50 people could run Twitter, if only they removed the bloat and focused on their core business?
> or had to provide tooling for governments, regulators,
nobody did back in 2014.
Since then WhatsApp has grown a lot, doubling its size to around a hundred employees.
This right here is why you can discount most replies on HN right off the bat. The "I can make software X in a day" posts are 99% bullshit because the posters making them have idea what business reality look like. If their program gained any popularity they'd be in a panic the first time the FBI dumped a warrant in their lap and their full stack developer is now spending a week with the lawyer trying to figure out how to untangle their data while the customers that paid for ads are yelling the metrics API went down 2 days ago.
No, they had 30M:
https://www.vox.com/2017/4/9/15235940/facebook-instagram-acq...
IG 13 employees at 30m users. Couldn't find # of servers.
FB had 10k servers in 2008 and 100m users, 850 employees.
I believe Doubleclick had ~500-1000 servers for ~10b daily impressions in mid-2000s.
Those numbers are all on circa 2010 hardware, so.. divide by a decade of performance doubling every 2 years (conservatively), or ~5x fewer servers in 2020.
The government takedown stuff, from personal experience, is tiny on the systems side; much more about moderators and expensive legal staffing.
These are very rough estimates, but I've heard 250k servers for Twitter.. that's much more on par with Goog/Amzn/Msft serving clouds at ~1m+ machines. That's a mystery to me.
What's their core business? Losing money on a platform where people can post racist comments?
Or do they have to earn money without getting sued for being used to spread CSAM and being a platform for harassment?
Because the first is very easy with 50 people. Elon can keep sinking money into it and never earn a dime (see Truth Social, they seem to be doing well!). The last is a lot more complicated and requires an ad platform, ad sales, content moderation, documentation writers, support agents, management, scrum masters, SREs, purchasing, et cetera.
IT people are really good at ignoring everything but the tech stack. Like tech is the only thing needed to run a profitable business. (It is... But not to run a 40B valued profitable business... And Twitter wasn't even profitable at all.)
they've been running the same exact business for years now, if what you say it's true, maybe the answer is yes?
I never heard of Twitter making profit, so maybe their core business was "Losing money on a platform where people can post racist comments"
There was abundance of both, AFAIK, long before Musk
Remember when Dorsey tweeted nazi propaganda and then said his account was compromised? (which if true it means at Twitter they don't know what they are doing, if false, well...)
Remember when journalists wrote articles titled "Twitter is a Nazi haven for the same reason its CEO claims no bias" because Dorsey never actually distanced himself from the worst of the worst the platform hosted? Fearing he would be labeled as "too liberal"?
Remember when he started spamming crypto-bro propaganda?
Remember when a spy from Suadi crown worked at Twitter helping to uncover activists using the so called "free" platform and after he was discovered and reported to authorities, Saudi prince Alwaleed bin Talal bought 4.61% of Twitter shares?
Did the situation got better with more and more employees or it just revolved around banning prominent accounts? (not that I necessarily disagree with the reasons behind it, but if that is the best solution they've found, after years of fine tuning, they could have done it before with much less people involved)
> Or do they have to earn money without getting sued for being used to spread CSAM and being a platform for harassment?
it's easily provable that the 7,500 employees did not improve things on that front.
> IT people are really good at ignoring everything but the tech stack
that's a really odd proposition.
Looks to me that Twitter was in bad shape already, despite thousands of non tech employees, Facebook it's in no good shape either, despite tens of thousands of them, basically the only thing still working as intended in those companies is the tech stack.
I guess the real question you're asking is "why non IT people are so bad at doing their job"?
Not my opinion though, I never said IT over other departments, I simply said nobody is able to explain what makes WhatsApp so special that a hundred people can run it while Twitter requires 75 times that and still doesn't work as well.
There are very few teams doing advertising at the scale of Twitter, saying "done by a lot of teams in a lot of places" is accurate just like "programming is done at a lot of places so why is programming hard".
That doesn’t mean your AI system performs better than a simpler one. Or that the system is useful in the first place (recommendations.) I’m not saying they were sitting around twiddling their thumbs. I’m saying the vast majority of Twitter staff were not actually improving the Twitter product noticeably to users. They were doing highly complex, cutting-edge engineering that was make-work.
If Twitter tech was so advanced, why were they losing so much money?
Advertising is a hard problem that not many companies have solved at the scale of Twitter, that is what I am trying to get at. There are not too many social media networks out there which have hundreds of millions of users and billions of data points, and it's very misleading to say that work done in such a scenario is "something fairly well-understood and at any rate done by a lot of teams in a lot of places", when literally they're the only ones with Twitter type data outside of a couple of other Chinese social networks.
looks like actual numbers don't agree with you
(hint: for TikTok it's Douyin + TikTok)
Yes, this is my point. All this incredible AI engineering did not actually make Twitter a better product. They could have just as well not spent the money. The work was ultimately futile for Twitter, even though it might have advanced our understanding of AI and have incredibly practical applications elsewhere. Conventional measures worked fine.
The claim was very few companies do what Twitter does at that scale, truth is Twitter is not a big fish in that space.
Since you are at it, do GDP of countries where they operate too.
I reckon a $ million in ad revenues in India is harder to come by that the same amount in USA.