Ask HN: Has anyone noticed Redfin altering past house price estimates?

9 points by HoppedUpMenace 3 years ago | 9 comments

I've noticed, at least with regards to my home, that the price estimates for early this year were much higher than they are today. For example, one might had looked at the price history and saw their house had increased $100k in value from the time of purchase up until Jan/Feb of this year, whereas looking at the estimates today, that same time period now shows only a $20k gain.

So if lets say 2020, house bought at $300k, was estimated at $400k by Redfin in early 2022. Today, Redfin now says the price estimate for the same home in early 2022 was actually $320k, not $400k as actually shown earlier in the year.

I know price estimates are just that but I'm curious to know if anyone else has noticed or what you might think of something like this being altered after the fact?

ekux44 3 years ago |

This algorithm change has resulted in dramatically lower estimates for my area.

Previously I assumed Redfin's estimates were trustworthy trailing averages. Now I realize they are very opinionated or perhaps even trying to shift buyer/seller expectations in a particular direction. I wonder what the success metrics are for their algorithm?

stevenhubertron 3 years ago |

I just checked on 2 homes and yes they made changes to the estimate. I can prove this because I scrape their site and store the data for display in Home Assistant.

europeanguy 3 years ago | |

I think everyone here would love to learn more. And I don't mean "make your data a queriable database". I mean just write a couple of SQL queries the result of which illustrate your claim, and share it here on HN.

zaphirplane 3 years ago | | |

It’s 2 houses, there is zero need for over complicated proofs

listenallyall 3 years ago |

Redfin, and everyone involved in selling houses, has an incentive to NOT portray the current housing market as one in free-fall, but one that is relatively stable, perhaps down a few percent, but no more. (I'm not claiming it is in free fall, but a $400k estimate in Feb to $310 today would imply that, while $320 then, $310 now does not)

What is the difference between the (displayed) past peak estimate and the current estimate?

jesuscript 3 years ago | |

These people are ruthless. Housing prices are not halted, they are quietly adding value to the sale price, but just not reflecting it due to interest rates. When the rates drop, it won’t tick up from the current price. It will rocket up because they are still adding value for lost time. I mean to say, just because something is sitting at 700k today, it won’t tick up from that number when rates drop. It will tick up from 900k or something like that because they didn’t count this past year as a lost year. They are an impossible industry.

I honestly hope this recession lasts awhile because that’s when the sellers will feel the burn of multi year mortgages and compromise. We really can’t be off to the races in 2024, it would be too soon.

If you can weather the monthly payment on these high interest rates, then now is probably your best chance at buying something because they will be the lowest ticket prices you’ll get. Even a hint of rate drops will send these blood suckers into a price inflation frenzy.

afinlayson 3 years ago |

Yup saw it on my house. Repriced by over 10% over last year.

endisneigh 3 years ago |

I’ve noticed this, Redfin estimates are useless.