Why is there such a resistance to the idea that there might be differences in what groups of people are interested in at any given time? Not an issue of genetics or competence, but a complicated web of social influences that make people less likely to be interested in one path or the other?

If there are truly unjust and discriminatory barriers, then by all means let's remove them. But if we succeed, and it doesn't change the numbers much, does it matter?

If certain groups really think it's a problem then let them do the work of encouraging their group members (alert, this feels condescending - who says they'll even self-identify with that group) to get into tech.

It's certainly not my fault. I'm a cheerleader for tech careers. The more, the merrier. But if you're not into it, then you're not into it. There's a lot of things I'm not into, either. Whose fault is that? And why should it matter?

Eg: You can make an argument for or against a mixture of two things in differing ratios, but the moment you use the words "balanced" and "unbalanced" to represent the two states, the it is harder to argue for the "unbalanced" side. Likewise for "core" vs "surface" (de Bono's example) Who would want to argue against balance, 'core', or in this case, "diversity"?(What are you, some kind of bigot?).

"Diversity" is automatically assumed to be a positive, before the argument on whether it is desirable begins, and there isn't a value neutral or value positive word that is its opposite.

Specifically in this post, there are plenty of value laden words - 'diversity', 'meritocracy' etc put together to slant in a particular direction. Not much solid argument or content there - the power of the argument comes instead from the values attached to the specific words used, which makes it a bit iffy - Martin is a gifted writer and clear thinker - this just isn't one of his better efforts.

[Due Disclosure: I know Martin from my days at ThoughtWorks. I respect him immensely and think he is a very impressive person, who has given me a lot of very useful advice on many occasions.]

Also I disagree with this line from the article: "A diversity imbalance suggest that there are many women, who would have good careers as programmers, who are not getting the opportunity to do so." If women are denied opportunities as programmers there will be an imbalance. An imbalance can be caused by any number of other factors.

As an aside, my boss at the moment is a woman, and a few years ago she had to staff up significantly and hired several young women at the junior level. The interesting thing is that her team hasn't really changed because of "the diversity" since it turns out that women who like programming act pretty much like the men who like programming: they're kind of socially awkward, have sometimes unreasonable expectations that the world will be a meritocracy, make a fetish out of liking cartoons and movies that most people don't, and so on.

One point of view I hear fairly regularly is that these diversity imbalances are natural - because men don't have the aptitude or inclination for child care. The big flaw here is a simple one of evidence. There are (roughly) 50% men in the world, so we should expect the ratio for men in child care to be 50% - unless there's real evidence that some other ratio is natural.

This waste hurts our society, too. We need more and better child care to nurture and support the next generation. By not bringing enough men into the profession, we are handicapping ourselves. How can we say we are hiring the best people when we ignore significant chunks of our population?

And people wonder why the ladies don't want to hang out with you kids all day. Could it be that ladies are smart enough to figure out when and where they are unwelcome? UNPOSSIBLE

signed, a lady who is interested in programming

In software development, we seem to be beset by an astonishing array of incompetence. The bar is so low that nobody should argue that any particular sub-group of the population would, by nature, be worse.

However, I am always intrigued that when people talk about "diversity", they always look to balance the high end of the spectrum, and never the low end.

For example:

Between 2003 and 2008, over 39 out of every 40 deaths in (US) military operations in Iraq were men. Where's the outcry about gender imbalance?

Who is in prison, the world over as criminals or political prisoners? The vast majority are men. Where's the outcry about gender imbalance?

In the US, most homeless people are men. Where's the outcry about gender imbalance?

Over 90% of people killed while performing their job are men. Where's the outcry about gender imbalance?

Men on average die three of four years younger than women. Where's all the research into finding out why?

Why on the news, when reporting exam results, is it a triumph that girls have outperformed boys for the last several years?

I read an article once that said that two industries showing the greatest gender imbalance were "programming" and janitoring. The article then went on to talk about systematic gender discrimination in the software field (yes... "geeks" and "nerds" came into it a lot). But why did the article make no more mention of the need to get more women into janitoring?

The latter in particular gives lots of detail, not just in describing the situation (the imbalance isn't the same everywhere, in every company or in every job description) but also in in explaining how (historically) and why (causally) the situation became what it is today.

True. But are underrepresented groups being actively denied access as was the case in the example above? Apple and oranges. Not saying there isn't a problem, just saying it's a different problem. I think in this case more passive cultural than active cultural problem.

There are imbalances everywhere. Line cooks. Where are the women line cooks? Photography. Where are the women in professional photography -how many women street photographers do we know, other than Vivian Maier? Where are the straight people in fashion? I think, at least in some cases, there is self selection going on. Different airports have different pluralities of ethnicities doing lots of the service work. SFO is different from JFK is different from BOS, in that regard.

Instead I prefer to take constructive action to change this, without worrying if (1) it is natural or unnatural or (2) it would be better. I accept that the current state is unnatural and a more balanced population would be better.

If you agree, please post replies here with what you think can/should be done (or what you are already doing). If you disagree, please reply to one of the other threads.

Let's pick some other topics. What's the percentage of men vs women that knit as a hobby? Crochet? Cross Stitch? Scrapbook? Ok, those are hobbies. But I'll bet if you asked most programmers, at least the good ones, they got started programming as a hobby and that happened to end up leading to a career.

How about nurses? In the USA is 93% women. 7% men (or was 14 years ago, not sure about today)

Are you going to argue that 50% of the participants of all those things should be men and that something is wrong because they are not at 50%?

I 100% want to see more women programmers but I'm at a loss on how to get more women interested in being a programmer. Should we try to do more? Of course! But there's a part of me that feels it's like saying "I wish more people didn't like pop music". I can wish all I want but if the biggest problem is culture it's going to take some serious concentrated effort to change. I'm talking like every 5th Hollywood movie and every 4th TV show needs to start showing women as programmers and in positive light the same way in the 70s they all started making anti-discrimination stories and girls can do anything stories. It's going to take women's magazines running articles on how awesome programming every month for years. It's not enough just to say women can do anything. If you want to change culture it's going to take a lot more than just a few words on a blog or a few more male geeks being aware of things they do that drive women off.

The stereotype of the white pasty male computer nerd is vanishing. With it is the pressure for those who don't fit that stereotype to choose a different field (Fowler mentioned this). I feel like this lack of diversity was almost purely societal and as society changes this will.

You are already seeing the enrollment of women at universities increase from its post-bubble years. It will probably keep going up. I don't think it will ever be on par, but it will get closer.

Sorry, but that is just bullshit. Everybody who is in IT and has talked to a bunch of women in his life has collected some evidence on this. When would Fowler accept it as evidence? If you have asked 100 women, or one million, or one billion, if they are inclined to go into IT? What do you suppose would be the result if we asked everybody on HN "what percentage of women you know have an inclination to go into IT"? I think there would be thousands of samples with a fairly obvious result.

Why there is little inclination is another question, but the logic Fowler employs here is simply bullshit. It matters because I don't think he'll be able to sway people's opinions if he simply dismisses the evidence they personally collected for themselves. Who are people supposed to trust, if they can't even trust themselves? Also, if he deals with evidence like that, I can not trust his argumentation because it seems as if he only wants to see or accept "evidence" that supports his viewpoint.

here are (roughly) 50% women in the world, so we should expect the ratio for women in computing to be 50% - unless there's real evidence that some other ratio is natural.[2] So far there's no such evidence.

But, er, doesn't the observation that the actual ratio is different evidence constitute "evidence"? Aside from direct observation, what other definition of "evidence" would you use? Or are you assuming that because one ratio exists in one set (the general population of humans) it must exist in any subset? This would require that the subset have no defining characteristics, which effectively prevents it from being a subset. (A bit loose with my language, but you get the gist)

Then his sheer audaciousness when he calls observation of the data circular logic! If I there are 20% blue trees in the world, and I see a lot with 40% blue trees, is it not natural to conclude there is some agency at work here? The question becomes one of intelligent design -- was there a external intelligent agent causing the blue tree delta? With complex systems, this is as much a religious question as anything else. We simply don't know. Very intelligent people could creatively speculate on all sorts of prime movers, natural or not.

Men have spent centuries using this kind of argument to deny women equal rights in all sorts of fields. Over the last century we've seen tons of evidence that this isn't true elsewhere, so why should it be true in software? As far as I'm concerned this shoddy history should make us doubly wary of the any suggestion that a diversity imbalance is natural.

I'm really not sure what to do with this. Is he arguing that since a certain type of rhetoric has been used to ill purpose in the past that it should be looked upon extra critically now? If so, how would I go about picking and choosing which methods of reasoning might be better or worse to use? It seems to me that he's arguing that based on some conclusion to the argument (there might be a natural difference) that we should hold the methods of reasoning suspect. But if we got a different conclusion using the same methods, that would be okay? This is like a generic ad hominem -- don't trust that reasoning because it's been faulty in the past! Well sure, all kinds of ways of reasoning have been faulty in the past. This has nothing to do with anything.

That is, given we have a unnatural imbalance, is it a problem that's sufficiently serious to spend energy on fixing it?

But he hasn't shown an unnatural imbalance at all, he's just made broad statements about how he feels about certain kinds of tools being used in the discussion.

Lack of diversity is itself a problem. Different people think differently, and consequently come up with different ways to solve problems. If you have a bunch of people with the same background, they miss lots of ideas - leading to inefficiencies and lack of innovation. A diverse group is usually more effective.

See here I completely agree with him -- a lack of various backgrounds, opinions, and personalities hurts small groups. But he seems to be saying that these good qualities -- opinions, backgrounds, personalities -- are inherently part of being a female, being a Norwegian, or of being black. So it's okay for him to say that in general being Norwegian is cause to make you so different you have value as a team member, at the same time he's saying that there are no natural differences to account for the difference in observed ratios? Huh? Who is using circular logic again?

Fowler seems like a nice guy, and I'm sure he likes puppies and ice cream and all of that, but this is tripe. I am a firm believer in having as much possible diversity as possible in my teams as long as we can hold the group together. So count me in as being a huge proponent of diversity.

But diveristy is all about things that you can't see -- not bullshit like your skin color, how tall you are, or your gender. Lots of teams fail because nobody on the team had good empathy skills. Nobody fails because there wasn't a person on there wearing glasses. Don't confuse the true greatness of diversity with some kind of flavor-of-the-week political bullshit.

Here it is: nobody knows. It's a complex system full of individuals all acting in their best interests, not something you can perform a logical proof on. The variables and systems involved are legion. If you would like to discuss the story of just one person, we could do that with some clarity. But if you start waving your hands around and claiming you already know the answer -- whether you want it to be a natural ratio or whether you see prejudice in the world -- we're not going to get very far. I can assure you that whatever happening is natural, but by "natural" I mean it might be that the society at large has major problems that need to be fixed. Or maybe not. Beats me. This is a topic for moral discussion, not logical discussion, and bringing these kinds of logic tools to the table only makes things worse, not better.

Must be in angry-old-guy mode again today. Sorry about that. I'm just really disappointed that Fowler couldn't see the errors of his own thinking and then presumes to lecture us about it. Man I find that really annoying.

But what kind of diversity will have the greatest effect? I posit that there are far greater kinds of diversity that will have a bigger impact than gender: language, culture, education.

I would also be interested in studies in why girls aren't as interested in science and computing as boys. When I started no one around me knew what a computer was. I'm kind of puzzled why I was interested at the age of 11. I was also discouraged from doing it at school, but it didn't stop me.

I take issue with te while geek thing. It may be true of some devs, but most I know don't fit into that stereotype, they have a wide range of other interests. I wish people would drop it.

Although female programmers are rare now, that wasn't the case in the 70's. That shift is another argument against the natural balance hypothesis.

I am too young to know, but is this the experience of others as well?

Again, this is based purely on anecdotal experience, but I wonder if women programmers tend to concentrate into particular industries (for whatever reason). My wife was a programmer at a contractor for a large government agency, and it struck me that there was a higher concentration of women there than in other industries or in the start-up scene.

If this is generally the case, I am not sure to what extent this would support any given hypothesis.

We could potentially take the Avatar/Dances With Wolves approach. A really awesome superstar male programmer could start dressing in drag and lead female programmers to victory. Or at least 50% representation.

As such I say there should be as many good women programmers to good male programmers as there are good women writers.

What can be done. I think that's difficult. It has to be something pervasive, insidious in the culture. Via TV, internet, radio, entertainment, education, propagated by not only peers but all via all media. Everywhere. There needs to cease the archetyping of human roles. Something on that scale could happen, but it would take a generation or two. Kind of like the deprogramming of National socialism in Germany, or deprogramming of Religion in (soviet) Russia. 100% success isn't necessary, just enough to overcome the momentum or steady state.

Very vast, very pervasive with both incentives and punishment. Piecemeal I don't think would result in fast enough turn-around in attitude.

To me the problem is cultural. It's not men or women, it's the whole body of the culture which results in the skewed numbers.

What kind of constructive action am I advocating? Nothing less than to continue the argument, in the most charitable and reasonable spirit we can attain. We are arguing about the most important of things: our moral aim. That is, "what is it we ought to do?" Should we promote diversity in computing? Tied up with this question of aims is the question of facts, namely: "Does promoting the politically correct notion of diversity mean the same as promoting the kind of diversity which will make computing as a profession more capable at achieving its ends?" Certainly, if there is a kind of diversity that brings the profession of computing closer to its ends (whatever those may be, and that too is in question) then I imagine that promoting such diversity is considered wise by all here.

What is primarily in debate is whether or not politically correct diversity (diversity of gender and race, primarily) is the same as effective diversity. If, like you seem to think, both kinds of diversity are the same, then doing what you suggest is in fact constructive. However, if politically correct diversity is orthogonal or (Ada Lovelace forbid) contrary to effective diversity, then your actions will be at best ineffective and at worst destructive. The whole point of this argument is that we want our profession to do what is constructive, and recognize that we need to sort out as a profession what in fact is constructive.

Hacker News is a great place to have this kind of discussion since a) you have willing and able participants, and b) the clear tree structure of posts helps considerably since well-formed arguments all tend to take such a structure. There are other sites for discussing what "can/should be done (or what you are already doing)" for a particular agenda.

The attitude you give off in your post is one of "deeds, not words", which in my experience is equivalent to an attitude of "words, not thoughts". You are dealing with a crowd which is perhaps best known acting upon those beliefs of which they have been rationally convinced. Do you not agree that it is better for people to hold and act upon beliefs of which they have been convinced by means of reason? If so, why then do you speak so glibly of "tak[ing] apart the logic, rhetoric, and nitpick[ing] every word" which is nothing less then the process of analytic reasoning? If not, why are you here?

P.S. Note that I have not actually taken a stance on the issue in question in this post.

For instance, there is plenty of evidence women are less likely to be very good (or very bad) at math: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/321/5888/494.summary http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21038941

There is also evidence women are more risk averse, making them less likely to work in startups: http://www.pnas.org/content/106/36/15268.full

There is evidence women avoid computing specifically because they are intolerant of geeks: http://web.archive.org/web/20100106021904/http://scicom.ucsc... (The original article was taken down)

This report also pushes the intolerance hypothesis, as well as women being less dedicated, being fearful of text interfaces, and preferring more collectivist environments: http://web.archive.org/web/20091007234852/http://opensource.... (Please go read the report before criticizing me for citing it. It's written by a woman who is allegedly a feminist.)

It's safe to say that none of this is ironclad proof that the only cause of women not being present in computing is natural causes. But the author's claims that "there's no such evidence" is utterly wrong. There is evidence, he just ignores it.

Lastly, the author completely ignores the fact that computing is very diverse. We have whites, all different types of asians, israelis and a smattering of euros (and of all sexual orientations). Our diversity may not be statistically identical to the general US population, but it's nonsensical to claim a lack of diversity in computing.

but fowler is using "natural" in a sense more like "unbiased by historical accident" or "what we would get if a bunch of people were suddenly created out of nothing and formed a society from zero".

so there's nothing new here. grumpy, indignant old men (self aware or not) believe the status quo (which only incidentally favours them) to be natural. people like fowler do not.

[edit: i've removed fowler's superlatives to be less unpleasant (sorry - in my defense i have been configuring maven all day...); the grumpy old man characterisation is from the parent post]

All rhetoric should be looked at critically, and there's nothing wrong with being extra critical of rhetoric that's historically dubious.

What's your initial response to the phrase "separate but equal"?

Do you think having more women in our profession would actually be a bad thing?

Fowler's point is that lopsided ratios existed many times in the past, and people argued that they were natural, but they turned out not to be, as was proven when the barriers were torn down and the ratios equalized. So in that sense, he's arguing that ratio observations do not count as "evidence" in this context.

However, what he's overlooking is the fact that in most cases, those imbalanced ratios in the past were buttressed by direct barriers to entry - women and minorities were usually actively excluded, and then when the active discrimination stopped, things started to equalize, often very rapidly (the "Jackie Robinson" effect).

We have seen this happen in most fields (tech has just about the worst gender imbalance in any field apart from nursing). And now we're at a point where explicit barriers to entry are all but absent. So as time goes on, the observation that the ratios are not approaching 1:1 in tech suggests more and more strongly that there's something else going on, and that the methods used to create parity in other fields (fighting -isms, mainly) are not addressing the root cause of inequality in tech.

That's not to say that this is evidence that there's not some other sort of more subtle discrimination going on; that's certainly possible, and I'm open to evidence that something in tech is somehow worse than in other fields (I've never seen any numbers to suggest this, and when looking at data like salary gaps, tech appears to be more equal than most fields). But it does mean that we should be wary about drawing the same causal conclusions that we drew 60 years ago when the situation was very different...

No. That tells you there's a difference, but absolutely nothing about the causes. You may not know of an artificial causal effect that inhibits greater participation in software by women, but not knowing about it doesn't mean that it doesn't exist (unless you have falsified all available hypotheses, naturally).

It genuinely weirds me out how many white males in tech see no conflict or even feel a shiver of historical echoes when they argue the premise that they (white men) are intrinsically genetically gifted in ways which other groups are not, and that is why they are superior (at technology). Every other time it has ever been argued, it has been false.

Unless the argument was that white men are better at the combination of having penises, privilege, and low amounts of melanin --- we have that hat trick down.

Yet, somehow I manage to keep the perspective that technology isn't populated by sexist assholes - sure the ones that are there stand out and make up a lot of the things that come to mind when I'm stressed. But really it's a small percentage [even though that small percentage can really get to you].

Try to keep the same perspective about women, the vast majority of us aren't "bitches".

For women not to be represented in the population that practices software engineering indicates some intrinsic flaw or inability with them --

but for one that is nice there is at least a hundred shallow bitches around

-- But for you to fail to achieve representation in the population which can acquire a mate or find a willing sex partner is ALSO a flaw with women!

Brilliant! Heads: you win; tails: women lose.

I either gravitate toward women who tend to respond to my advances negatively or have some behavior that puts women off. Therefore, I'm sexist and consider most if not all women inferior to men in ways including ability in math, engineering. Because I can't get them to sleep with me.

...What??

Go talk it out, either with a friend or a therapist. The longer you wait, the harder it will be.