Ask HN: Are we moving towards WWIII?

5 points by _mh56 3 years ago | 12 comments

This isn't a doom post or prediction. Just curious as to what possibilities are in this scenario.

There is a deadlock in geopolitics. China is making dams on River Ganges and Bhramputra. These dams will be completed by 2028. This means less water downstream for India. For a nation of 1.5 billion with mostly agriculture based population, this would be a death knell. China also needs this water to support its industrial activities.

So, why would India not go to war with China?

An India-China War would definitely result in WW3.

Edit: If US concedes India, they stop being the world leader and instead China will take its place. This means US + Europe will side with India which means Russia will side with China. Hence, the world war.

aww_dang 3 years ago |

As a disclaimer, this is all wild speculation.

India would be pushed to choose sides if a larger conflict emerged. I don't see the larger conflict starting over the Himalayan border. Rather the larger conflict could cause this long running dispute to erupt.

Water rights are just one part of the issue. I expect that a larger conflict would emerge if the CCP became more active with Russia militarily. Also expecting the Taiwan issue to flare up first. Perhaps this might be buoyed by domestic issues in China, where the party seeks to boost nationalist sentiment by focusing on external enemies.

Global trade and currency wars are a more pressing issue. An Iranian conflict might be one answer to the Saudis accommodating the CCP. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the straits of Hormuz. This in turn would cause the Iranian/Saudi rivalry to further erupt. Provoking a conflict there would fit the pattern of creating an contiguous block of anti-western powers.

With a clear set of enemies defined, the military industrialists and banking cartels have their work cut out for them. Treasuries owned by the CCP can be reneged upon. Unlimited spending is once again rationalized. The victors would be able to impose their currency system upon the world. Unsustainable debt would be reorganized.

>“When goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will”

https://fee.org/resources/if-goods-dont-cross-borders/

ninethirty 3 years ago |

WW3 will likely start over China invading Taiwan or NK invading South Korea, triggering defense pacts in approx 2027.

Rury 3 years ago |

I'm not sure why it would necessarily be WW3? Why not just a war between India/China? Not every war is a world war...

But yes, expect there to be wars in the future. There's a war going on somewhere pretty much at any given time.

ggm 3 years ago |

Why would an India China war result in wwIII when they have already traded blows for many decades without it causing wwIII?

What treaty obligations bring other parties to bear arms?

_mh56 3 years ago | |

Because if your allies get attacked, you come for help. That's what being allies means. If US doesn't participate in history's biggest war, they'll cease to be a world power. And US will never side with China.

ggm 3 years ago | | |

India isn't an ally of the US as far as I know, it's a leader of the non aligned nations in the UN and accused of sanctions busting for cheap oil from Russia. It's not a member of any of the NATO class treaty bodies, and it actively purchases arms from the FSU, and repudiated the non proliferation treaty.

Rury 3 years ago | | |

That's not quite how things work. You may call for your allies to help, but they may decide that they don't want to help you out, or only agree to help you out in indirect ways.

ofalkaed 3 years ago | | |

If that were true than every war would develop into a world war.

Someone 3 years ago |

> So, why would India not go to war with China?

Because they would be worse off than when they would not go to war.

Or do you expect them to win concessions from China in such a war?