Ask HN: Any good resources or people to follow to stay informed on recession? I really want to be smart about it financially and wondering if people have any resources that aren't people yelling at you like Jim Cramer |
Ask HN: Any good resources or people to follow to stay informed on recession? I really want to be smart about it financially and wondering if people have any resources that aren't people yelling at you like Jim Cramer |
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/how-it-st...
His work is good but everyone else writes crap on the site.
https://wolfstreet.com/ Can be a decent read
https://stocksandjocks.net/ Decent daily podcast
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusion...
but once ChatGPT came out people forgot about NFTs, the "Metaverse" and such.
FAANG employees are hurting (because FAANG has FAANG problems) but it seems most normal employers are struggling to hire, it is not so clear we are in a recession yet.
Inflation is still here and the Fed is talking about raising interest rates and if they do it enough there will be a recession, or at least we think so. An obvious investment choice is
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/
for money you might want in the next few years, you have a juicy interest rate but it will go up if inflation goes up. I bought a lot of I bonds at the 2000 bubble peak and they did really well even though inflation was under control. Investing in the similar TIPS product as part of a hedge fund made Ray Dialio of Bridgewater a household name.
It is strange how the stock market has done well. People mostly quit trading crypto so the prices have not dropped despite the loss of interest. I am loathe to make any predictions about either.
I think VC firms are pulling back, particularly from money losing boondoggles like Uber. I do see a lot of people are in stealth mode and self-funded, some will bootstrap, others will have great pitches for funding.
The AI goldrush is real but don't be one the lazy people who gets ChatGPT to write their pitch deck. The same technology behind ChatGPT can be reconfigured for other purposes, this page
https://huggingface.co/docs/transformers/quicktour
lists 13 different uses of transformer models, really understanding what you can do with the tools from that site can change your life. Most importantly, Facebook and Google won't be able to fully take advantage of this technology for reasons mentioned in this post and elaborated in my comment
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35069965
basically they need to train a model that pleases everybody which is organizationally and politically intractable, but transformers put the power to train a model that pleases you in the palm of your hand.