Ask HN: What will be future software job market be like in 10 years cuz of AI?

9 points by blameitonme 3 years ago | 12 comments

I am a undergrad and although I try to convince myself that the dystopian AI future isnt a reality and AI is just a tool, I also feel like will I get to use this tool? or will I be jobless and someone else will be using AI to replace 1000 people at once.

Today after seeing GPT 4 results in common exams/tests my worry doubled, as these AI capabilities will keep increasing and although I am not talking about an all knowing AI overlord level dystopia, will I be replaced along with 1000 other because someone is using AI?

swatcoder 3 years ago |

Over the last 10-15 years, competition among cash rich FAANG companies soaked up every person who could learn to write a for loop and read an API document and drove (American) software engineer compensation into the range of doctors and lawyers.

That’s not sustainable. There’s not enough useful engineering work to go around, and certainly not for that value. It just happened that money was cheap for a long while and those firms were using some of theirs to make sure nobody else had access to good talent.

Between money getting more expensive and LLM’s readily eating up the “for loops and API docs” class of work, the reckoning seems to be coming.

There will still be plenty of tech industry and software engineering work for talented, interested people and it will still probably pay a decent middle+ class salary. If that suits you, stick with it. That’s what a lot of us have already been a part of for decades. It’s not bad work. We’ll probably be using AI tools as part of it moving forward and working on some pretty cool projects because of that.

But if you struggle with the field and were hoping for an easy $$$$ lifestyle, you might want to look at a different career options. The landscape won’t be like you saw when you were in high school.

tkiolp4 3 years ago | |

While what you said rings true, one thing you are forgetting is that demand for people who work in tech is only going up. This is worldwide.

blameitonme 3 years ago | |

but at the same time, we can say the same about doctors (or even lawyers?) AI is just getting better at predicting things in general, be it an answer to technical question or predicting a disease, so which field is safe from AI? anything involving physical work can be optimized to outperform humans if economic incentives support it, and mentally we won't be able to combat AI say after 20 years, so what then?

Which field are safe from AI overtake? now obviously AI wont take all doctors' jobs, but it'll reduce the value that a singular doctor provides today and that's my concern, we humans are all are getting devalued, is AI field itself safe or will they replace themselves first?

ipaddr 3 years ago | | |

Demand for medicine is increasing this will probably make the lives of gp better and free them to do more enjoyable tasks. The law and medicine are closed fields with limited spaces on purpose so I expect them to be least affected.

Whatever job sounds great in a movie avoid, find something with a moat for entry that's what successful startups do.

abhayhegde 3 years ago | | |

I'm not convinced that scientists (researchers working on basic science domains) will not be so easy to replace. The typical work would involve an element of genius-ness that is foreign to an AI. Not saying one could never be replaced, just that it's not as straightforward.

dougmwne 3 years ago |

These tools cannot act on their own and still need professionals to be responsible for their application. If the promise of LLMs comes true, there will be much new work created in tuning models and integrating them into every worker’s job in the unique context of every company. It will likely take decades for companies to fully adapt to the potential, just like it took decades to adapt to the personal computer.

Study up, work hard and keep at it. Don’t dispair, be hopeful. And once you get a job and make some money, put some of each paycheck into the S&P 500 as a hedge that Labor will become worth much less than Capital for awhile.

blameitonme 3 years ago | |

yeah working hard right now, and will try to maximize my next 5-10 years as they might very will decide most of my days after that

mickmack_ 3 years ago |

Unfortunate reality is that software devs will go the way of the blacksmith sooner rather than later. If there is anything after this I would not even dare to question. There is always fridge repair!

blameitonme 3 years ago | |

are you saying this sarcastically or do you mean it?

morph123 3 years ago | | |

Of course I do. Once you have an entity that is 100x cheaper and better why use a human? Is GPT-4 the one to do it? Probably not, but there is GPT-5,6,7,8...

I think in general large software organizations that do not act as a platform for AI will surely die, they will no longer provide anything of value.

Only way to be sure that you can have a job for now is to be a tradesman, I reckon you got at least a decade longer in that gig. After that it is game over obviously.

GoldenMonkey 3 years ago |

Get into physical engineering. That's not going to be taken over by AI anytime soon.