Intel is expected to post its biggest loss on record(marketwatch.com) |
Intel is expected to post its biggest loss on record(marketwatch.com) |
Seems like TSMC's days are number, so... is the entire western world just gonna accept a Samsung Foundry monopoly? Feels like Intel is Too Big to Fail (even if they keep falling behind their own timetables).
Also it feels like a make-or-break moment for a lot of things like Gaudi, Xe, and the chiplet focus.
They aren't the new IBM/Oracle yet, but they need a bet that doesn't depend on their manufacturing capabilities.
The only refresh I heard of is the Raptor Lake CPU refresh which will be Intel’s 14th gen CPUs - which might enable some features like the Digital Linear Voltage Regulator (DLVR) that were disabled due to bugs in the 13th gen CPUs; DLVR could potentially significantly reduce power draw.
And if Pat is out, I won’t invest in Intel at all.
But even if Taiwan isn't invaded, TSMC could still be compromised. For instance, they could suffer from a severe peacetime cyberattack, physical sabotage, a blockade of the island, or even get damaged in a failed invasion attempt or a brief exchange of fire. They are a high profile target.
On the CPU front though, it seems they're continuing to lag. I suspect they may have over-invested into GPU's when mining was booming, and the risk isn't paying off.
They'll be back, but I don't see them being a major competitor for many more years outside of commodity and Enterprise business. Which, as a company, is a great place to be. But I really don't care.
- what was aimed for
vs
- how it's going
Not that big or leading edge, but plenty big enough to tout.
That is what mainstream / Apple centric media wants to tell / sell that story.
And my understanding is that AMD is currently much better when you have a low power budget: https://images.anandtech.com/graphs/graph17641/130507.png https://www.anandtech.com/show/17641/lighter-touch-cpu-power... (I know those are the desktop versions and that's all AMD has, but by the time you're looking at cooling 50-150 watts the socket isn't very important.) (Also Intel claims their lowest-wattage 8+16 core, by a huge margin, is a desktop model.)
China can't just knock over Taiwan because Taiwan is essentially the US. They're trained, supplied and fully backed by a much larger nuclear power.
Chinese military cannot go up against the US, and Xi knows it would be sure destruction.
The US will lose, especially if China times it to coincide with the war with Russia, and North Korea invading the South.
I wish countries in macro level geopolitics did not behave like prepubescent boys trying to share the same toy
Taiwan and China are nowhere near the Ukrainian situation.
Also TSMC is planning to open outside Taiwan soon.
This is true, but most of their capacity is in Taiwan, and will remain in Taiwan for some time.
This isn't like Ukraine where there was an implicit agreement that nobody will send actual troops into Ukraine to fight its war. If Taiwan is invaded, the US will send its own troops. And if the US is involved, the EU is likely involved too. China is big but not enough to challenge the US militarily. Not yet.
It would take an absolute madman to make China go to war just for Taiwan.
And, if you've got a big army (and navy), just sitting around doing nothing.... what are you going to do with it? The army themselves must be itching for a fight, just to justify their existence. Maybe that's why they're trying to hot things up in Bhutan.
There’s a cottage industry of war hawks who sell various narratives about China to rile up the mostly republican base.
My favorite is Gordon Chang, who a few years ago was predicting that the Chinese communist party and state was going to collapse and start some sort of war. Now the Chinese are beating the USA in space and are about to invade Taiwan.
It’s all stupid. Semiconductors are a high risk capital intensive business. Just like Verizon bet and lost on mmWave 5G and is getting its butt kicked by TMobile, Intel bet on 450mm wafers and lost.
Strategically, they’re in a recoverable position. TSMC is at capacity and needs to invest billions and execute to maintain their lead. Cloud is challenging their margins, but their relationship with Microsoft gives them leverage.
Russia is a declining petrostate. China is the world’s factory. Antagonizing their biggest trading partners won’t be a winning strategy for many years, if ever.
My favorite is Andrew Left, who shouted the alarm on EverGrande in 2016 and then was fined for it in Hong along because he obviously didn’t understand the Chinese market.
> Now the Chinese are beating the USA in space and are about to invade Taiwan.
China isn’t beating the USA in space by even the most pro Chinese nationalist measurements.
???
Many countries were more than willing to be involved and didn't need any dragging at all, e.g. the Baltics, Poland and the UK who are by now sick of all the poisonings on their territory the KGB has been blatantly carrying out over the years.
Ask the average Joe if they want WWIII, because imperialist powers can't keep their hands in their pockets.
Probably?! Probably...??
I don't think even the average propaganda punch drunk Igor on the street believes this tired old excuse for the invasion of Ukraine any more.
>Ask the average Joe if they want WWIII, because imperialist powers can't keep their hands in their pockets.
Actually, we should turn that around and ask the average Russian on the street, since it's their country being imperialist, and their mobics dying in a foreign land. Ask them why they voted for it.
The only thing keeping Russia in check in eastern Europe in anyway, shape or form is NATO.
NATO expansion stops Russian aggression not the other way around, but I know the forever belied Russia must always be a victim of some nefarious plot from the entire world.
The only way to stop Russias numerous wars in Eastern Europe and there dangerous escalation is to have them dealt a decisive defeat in Ukraine.
Ukraine was clearly in the sphere of influence of Russia. Why was the US flirting with it ? Do you see Russia openly courting Mexico ? No.
Im neither American or paid to be here, I just don't like imperialist wars of conquest regardless of who starts them.
> Ukraine was clearly in the sphere of influence of Russia.
If by that you mean previously forcibly occupied by the USSR and therefore Russia sure.
> Why was the US flirting with it ? Do you see Russia openly courting Mexico ? No.
Russia is free to court whomever they want, no one would really care, things have changed in the past 50-60 years seemingly everywhere but Russia,
It's very revisionist to act like the prevailing wisdom was that a full invasion was coming. Please cite your assessment or prediction about the upcoming Russian invasion at least a month before it happened, since it was so clear.
For example: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527
Otherwise, you have no geopolitical cred
You can be pedantic about Nostradamus like predictions. But if you were surprised that Russia invaded Ukraine, your threshold for surprise is low. After all, they annexed a big part of the country a few years ago.
> But if you were surprised that Russia [China] invaded Ukraine [Taiwan], your threshold for surprise is low.
After all, they claim it's their territory, won't disavow claiming it through force, dissuade other countries from even visiting it, regularly perform military drills around it, and annexed Tibet while people today were still alive.
