Ask HN: Covid Severity Decrease Expected?

2 points by onos 2 years ago | 2 comments

My understanding is that covid became / evolved to be less severe over time and is now comparable to typical colds or the flue in terms of risk of death. Q: is this what one should expect from most viruses over time, or did we just get lucky?

anovikov 2 years ago |

My understanding is that it happened at random, because the virus does not naturally optimise for severity, but for the spread rate. Which isn't too (or at all) linked with severity so as with each subsequent strain, spread rate always increased, severity of symptoms more of randomly changed. Because it's more likely for them to become lighter rather than more severe (there aren't too many "cracks" in our natural immune system to exploit, or we'd be extinct long ago, so a random change is more likely to be less than more severe), this is what mostly happened, with the exception of Delta strain.

gus_massa 2 years ago | |

Also, less severe version can fly under the radar. With a very severe version people may decide a new lockdown and try to isolate it, with a mild variant people will just ignore it or put a few safety posters.

And now almost everybody has the vaccine, boosters and got infected by omicron and perhaps also other variants, so there is a lot of partial immunity.