2023 Nobel Prize in economics awarded to Claudia Goldin(nobelprize.org) |
2023 Nobel Prize in economics awarded to Claudia Goldin(nobelprize.org) |
[0] https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/05/11/did-blind-...
This didn’t happen to me, but these university press releases then get picked up by science journalists who, maybe with an additional interview, build off it for their own article and hype up the work and narrative even more. It’s like a game of hype telephone.
Claudia Goldin and Cecilia Rouse:
> Although some of our estimates have large standard errors and there is one persistent effect in the opposite direction, the weight of the evidence suggests that the blind audition procedure fostered impartiality in hiring and increased the proportion women in symphony orchestras.
> …
> The weight of the evidence, however, is what we find most persuasive and what we have emphasized. The point estimates, moreover, are almost all economically significant.
Andrew Gelman:
> This is not very impressive at all. Some fine words but the punchline seems to be that the data are too noisy to form any strong conclusions. And the bit about the point estimates being “economically significant”—that doesn’t mean anything at all. That’s just what you get when you have a small sample and noisy data, you get noisy estimates so you can get big numbers.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Econ...
To be fair I would definitely consider Goldin’s work the kind of work that improves society and hence that Nobel would want awarded.
> However, Goldin has shown that the bulk of this earnings difference is now between [sic] and women in the same occupation, and that it largely arises with the birth of the first child.
Interesting situation developing if the main effort is in educating women who then leave the workforce. I assume one of these is going to have to give - presumably who takes primary caregiver responsbilities.
Ironic/refreshing/funny to see that "men" are literally absent from the narrative here. How do I make a PR to correct a mistake in their copy?
Seems fairly intuitive, no?
A corollary to this is that Homer's choice of job was dictated by the needs of his family. For many today, the big raise must appear before any decision to have kids. Work now dictates family.
There seems to be good reasons for not separating an extremely young child from their mother.
"the impact on earnings for the birth mother is [almost identical in both family types](https://www.ifau.se/globalassets/pdf/se/2016/wp2016-08-does-...). Meanwhile, the nonbirth mothers in the lesbian couples show a similar earnings pattern to fathers in the heterosexual ones"
This heavily incentivises mothers to return to the workforce, and couples to plan around this. It is also generous enough to be a real boon to young parents.
you can't award the nobel posthumously. in other words, once someone dies, they take their life's work with them to the grave without any further formal recognition. so older folks are prioritized because everyone knows that the younger folks still have long lives ahead of them, and their time to shine will come.
also, the reason why nobel laureates in economics tend to be older than the other sciences is because of the lag time of proving important contributions.
in the basic sciences, new discoveries can be overnight. of course, incremental progress takes decades as well, but the culmination --- the breaking point of a new discovery --- can be instantaneous.
in economics, which is better categorized as speculation of rational and irrational human decision-making, it may take decades to prove a theorem (especially in macro). there is no "overnight success". you can say the most absurd or correct claim such as "new neoclassical synthesis is the best monetary framework!" but even if it were true, it doesn't matter unless there is substantial evidence. and that usually takes decades because of long-term business cycles and novel, unprecedented crises.
the consequence of this lag time between when the seminal paper is published and when there is consensus in the field is massive.
example:
paul romer won the econ nobel in 2018. but the paper he wrote that earned him the nobel was actually his PhD thesis from all the way back in 1983, when he 29. he hypothesized that one of the most important contributions to long-term economic growth was ideas, and how it is free to distribute and re-use innovative ideas.
even if his hypothesis were true in 1983, it wouldn't matter unless there was substantial evidence of it. and you can be sure that the rapid growth many developing countries experienced post-1980s and onwards helped to support his claim.
It makes sense in economics. You need time to be proven right. Physicists and chemists can produce a bunch of equations that we can plug in and get the results, or perform an experiment to demonstrate. Social science can only be proven retrospectively.
(Not trying to start a political debate or flamewar here - I was raised with these narratives, so it's an interesting graph to me)
But fast forward on some decades, and housewives working strictly in the home doing domestic labor of rearing and feeding the family and managing the household doesn't count as economic labor because none of the results of that labor are actually being sold on the market. Yes, it's enabling the husband to be more economically productive by not having to worry about that stuff, but that's a second-order effect.
As those “side gigs” moved to factory production (for cloth production that happened very early), I wouldn’t be surprised if families stopped participating due to it not being economically feasible.
> researchers who are awarded the most prestige and airtime are sympathetic if not outright fanatics of the prevailing order.
The most well-known Economists living, to the public, lean anywhere between left and far left. Stiglitz, Varoufakis, Piketty, Krugman. So that's horseshit. I also couldn't think of one who's "fanatic" of the prevailing order at all, they all have criticisms of the government; unless "prevailing order" for you translates to Liberal democracy.
We could also talk about Banerjee and Sachs, but again, both couch their analyses in metrics that pre-suppose the supremacy of, and justify, the ways "value" are considered and what constitutes "progress" in popular discourse.
A Liberal and Keynesian. I'd say firmly on the left side of the spectrum, this is only contested by the more zealous Twitter leftists who'd frame the lot of them as right-wing/neo-liberals.
> I think you live in a bubble if you think Varoufakis and his ideas are well-known to the public.
None of their ideas are well-known to the public, just their political affiliation. Granted Varoufakis, it having been years since the Greek crisis, is receiving less attention now.
> We could also talk about Banerjee and Sachs,
I can already hear the collective "who?"
On the right I guess Sowell is still alive, over 90 years old.