Maybe the next Einstein is currently being asked to at least wiggle their mouse every 30 seconds to pretend they are busy on corporate spreadsheets, spend at least four hours in meetings each day, and aren't even allowed pencils and papers to sketch on at their desk because it is a PII or other corporate secrets exfiltration risk. Good luck to them stringing together a coherent thought, much less a working theory to revolutionize physics.

Odd choice for the article to focus on Einstein when this is definitely the case in physics. The lowest hanging fruit has been picked, and reaching the higher branches requires facilities with large collaborations to support them. There are still important ideas coming from individuals, but for comparison the discovery of the photoelectric effect or Rutherford scattering or electromagnetic induction are all things that can be worked out by a single person with a tabletop setup.

It used to be possible for a single person to have all of Physics in their head. Now the amount of information is so large that it's just physically impossible. Physics isn't being created, but uncovered.

The author has a recency bias. I think the real burst of genius was from 800BC to 300BC.

During that time you had Homer, Archimedes, Pythagorus, Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, the Buddha, Confucius, Zeno of Citium. You had the Odyssey, the Hebrew Bible, and the Bhagavad Gita. Judaism, Confucianism, Hinduism, Buddhism, Stoicism all have their foundational writings/teachings written down during this time.

Way more people have read and studied and learned from Homer than from Tolstoy. Aristotle is way more influential than William James.

Or maybe, different historical periods produce different types of genius, and many times it is apparent only looking backwards in time who the geniuses were and what was their true impact.

If you were born in Oppenheimer's era you gained a huge advantage of parents wealthy enough to pay for undergrad school (perhaps a paltry 5%) AND graduate school (perhaps 0.01%) so the gulf in education and knowledge between these wealthy educrats and the average man on the street was far more enormous, and these educrats had a much bigger inside track to discovery ...

So to summarize, a genius is measured by their intellectual height above the AVERAGE person and the average has increased a lot. At the same time, standardized education is killing diversity and creativity...

I think the influence of Max Talmud on Albert Einstein is overstated here. It seems that Einstein pushed himself rather than getting pushed by Talmud. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Einstein "Einstein excelled at physics and mathematics from an early age, and soon acquired the mathematical expertise normally only found in a child several years his senior. He began teaching himself algebra, calculus and Euclidean geometry when he was twelve; he made such rapid progress that he discovered an original proof of the Pythagorean theorem before his thirteenth birthday. A family tutor, Max Talmud, said that only a short time after he had given the twelve year old Einstein a geometry textbook, the boy "had worked through the whole book. He thereupon devoted himself to higher mathematics ... Soon the flight of his mathematical genius was so high I could not follow."

I read somewhere that Stradivarius aren't better than modern violins in double blind studies, so this 'point' does a disservice to the author and shows that it's quite difficult to differentiate between 'it was better before' and real 'retrogress'..

On other hand this likely leads to lot less waste and as society we are already tight on money as things get more expensive. So we cannot just waste it to any random idea or apparent crank... Or pseudoscience...

I'm autistic, and of the scary smart variety. In my life, I've only met a handful of people who are smarter than I am. Not a brag, just a fact. After all, someone has to be on the far edge of the bell curve.

I know that I could have done incredible things if my life had gone differently. I spend most of my free time thinking about quantum physics and cosmology and the nature of reality. These things make sense to me on a very deep level. I don't think I'd produce a breakthrough on the scale of relativity, but I know I have something to contribute.

I say could have because life has not been kind to me. I grew up poor in a poor small town. School was hard, to put it lightly. The US education system is/was a one size fits all thing, and you suffer the consequences if you don't fit. I was there to learn, but I couldn't get material fast enough. If I tried to get ahead, I was beaten back down. No one ever tried to actually help or understand me. No one, not even my parents.

I couldn't get through college for similar reasons. I tried three times but I could never get any value out of it, it was just a waste of my time.

Because I grew up poor and I don't have a degree, I did not have many opportunities. Until very recently, my life has simply been grinding away at whatever meaningless job kept me from starving.

Being beaten down by the system over and over, and being a wage slave does not leave much time or motivation for independent study. The notion of even having enough free time to work out something like relativity has been an absurd fantasy my whole life.

All in all, life has been lonely and traumatizing. The isolation of not having an intellectual peer is really profound, and it's taboo to even talk about. The moment you say you're smarter than the average bear, people come crawling out of the woodwork to tell you how wrong you are. I've heard many anecdotes from people like me who have hidden their true talent their entire life. I wanted so desperately to fit in, to find a peer group, to not be so utterly alone. I hid my talents even from myself. I built walls so high that even decades later I still don't know what I'm really capable of. I've never explored the full extent of my abilities.

I'm no Einstein, but if someone like me has been so thoroughly stymied by life and society, I have no trouble imagining an Einstein or a Hawking being crushed into the dirt.

Sometimes I get really sad thinking about what could have been and where it all went wrong. I grieve for the person I could have been. I wasted decades of my life and have nothing but scars and burnt bridges to show for it. I try not to go down that particular mental path too often.

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The other side of this coin is the nature of scientific development these days. We've pushed knowledge so much farther than most people realize. It now takes teams of people and ludicrous amounts of resources to pursue a breakthrough. Probably most of our modern day geniuses are quietly toiling away on developments that the public won't ever realize or appreciate.

We're on an exponential curve of scientific and technologic advancement. We're making all kinds of breakthroughs all the time. But there probably isn't a breakthrough to be made on the reality shattering scale of general relativity. At least not one that a single person can come up with in their spare time.

There's lots of reasons we don't have a modern Einstein. Geniuses absolutely do still exist, but they're either denied the opportunity to contribute or their contributions are just one of many in their field. Within the scientific community, many of these people are known and appropriately appreciated, but there's nothing sensational enough to capture the attention of the media and the public.

I'd say it's mostly social reasons, but also we've pushed the boundary of knowledge so far that it's just harder to punch through than it was a century ago. I guarantee geniuses at or beyond the level of Einstein are still being born today, but no one cares to recognize them the same way.

> entirety of knowledge and that didn’t trigger a golden age

Assumes facts not in evidence!

I think that we are so inundated in amazing things and have so much access to amazing things that instead we're just forgetting how to be amazed!

The metrics given in the article aren't convincing. So the number of "geniuses" per capata is down. So? The absolute numbers of people are way up! And what it takes to be "accomplished" has accordingly increased.

I'm just a random guy and tooting around with recreational mathematics I've from time to time made a discovery I found that I thought was really interesting only to find on further research it WAS an interesting discovery ... in the 1940s by some big name (or in the 1800s by Gauss). This is only possible-- for me-- because I'm standing on the shoulders of many greats and I have tremendous tools available to me that didn't exist even decades ago.

To me that sounds like the renaissance the that the author presumes doesn't exist!

Now this stuff isn't usually resulting in published work-- but that's because it's already published (and well enough available that I know it's published). The bar is higher now.

So it's a darn good thing that we have all these advances because they're whats needed to continue making progress and accelerating, even if it doesn't look that impressive when divided by our exponential population growth. With so much amazing happening people are off doing stuff that isn't captured by the metrics. Some of that stuff could be amazing in it's own light too, but in ways our historical perspective doesn't capture and appreciate.

As far as singular genius goes: As we all become better, due to better tools and better access to knowledge, it makes sense that our accomplishments will become more compressed against the ceiling of what's possible given our current technology. Moreover, we work on more things today that are of a scope greater than any single human-- and this work depends on the collective effort of large teams.

These change likely decrease the importance and visibility of singular genius.

Even if we accept that it's less common now, due to rarity singular genius is difficult to rigorously study and probably impossible study so ethically: Maybe it's down because incest is less common or because child abuse is less common! There are a lot of things which have changed in recent errors which we would not reverse for the sake of more outstanding geniuses.

Instead of looking back and lamenting the that the concentration of singular genius seems to have decreased there is probably so much more to gain from growing into all the new possibilities that have opened to us recently, many of which we've only barely begun to comprehend.

(and, if it isn't clear-- I didn't actually stop reading at the beginning ;) )

https://sabr.org/journal/article/can-stephen-jay-goulds-theo...

>Gould then supposes that the decline in batting average peak (the .400 hitter, the outlier) is due to decreased variation in the population of hitters. In other words, as the skills of both hitters and pitchers improved, and as the pool of talented players to choose from increased, the variation in talent (the difference between the best to the worst batting averages) should decrease. Therefore, players in Major League Baseball in more recent period are arguably reaching the “wall” of human performance. Gould’s analysis of the data supports this idea, as the standard deviation of league-wide batting averages has decreased steadily since the early 20th century.

As the late, great Frank Zappa once said: "If you want to get laid, go to college. If you want an education, go to the library."

Other assumed facts:

1) we ever started "making Einsteins" in the first place

2) Assuming (1), we actually stopped

Lots of other things are possible:

- there are people of incredible genius out there making profound discoveries the author is unaware of

- there are people of incredible genius out there making profound discoveries the impact of which has yet to be generally felt or appreciated

- So much is being published now and some fields are so niche and complex that it takes time for the community to process and undestand work that is done

- People are empowered by better tools etc to tackle bigger things which take longer and require more collaboration (eg the langlands project)

- geniuses aren't made at all, but instead just come along every now and again at random. You can't extrapolate from a stochastic process involving very rare events and make any kind of determination whatsoever about trends without having that determination basically just reflect your assumptions.