For me biggest moat, mystery. What I mean, AI industry now gathering low hanging fruits, which are not bad but cannot be good enough for economical sustainability of whole AI ecosystem.
What will really be gamechanger, some Big thing, which will be sold to large share of population, like personal computers, smartphones, automobiles.
What problem of niches of low hanging fruits, they effectively prohibit scale, so if nearest time we will not see something Big, it will become something like
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_crash_of_1983
If you will look at figures, you will see, after crash of 1983, video gaming revenue returned to 1979 level in 1989. So if we will got similar AI crash just now, market will revive in about 2030.
Also possible scenario of recession, but ONLY if find way to somehow feed debts from huge R&D spending without appropriate returns.
In 1983 US gaming production collapsed, and shifted to Japan. That time I was too young to fear Japanese (so I don't know this feeling), but now I feel serious fear that AI production could shift to totalitarian China.
Yes, I now see, US and EU governments express concerns about totalitarian China AI dominance scenario, and considering huge state support for internal AI production, but for me, this is also evil, and this will have huge consequences in future.
So, my forecast, exist possibility, something Big will be found before AI startups become impossible feed debt, otherwise, US/EU states will enter game and will regulate things and all effectively become state program, so market will effectively disappear.
Also possible effects, crash of GPUs, etc, because they depend on big sales, which are now feed by debt.
Low hanging fruits will stay in niches, but this is is very boring, and will still be possibility of Big thing appearing, which will gather all niches.