Ask HN: Is the job market is bad as everyone claims it is? I'm looking for a change from my current position and I was just wondering if now is a good time or if it might benefit me to stay for a while. I only have 2 YOE, but the way people are talking about it makes it sound pretty brutal. |
Things seem pretty bad right now. It seems like 2023 created fewer new tech jobs. But mostly it is a gut feeling based on anecdotes and news stories w/o hard numbers.
My daughter's data engineering team in finance was reduced from five to two, and they are not giving raises that match inflation. She is almost singlehandedly responsible for servicing million-dollar accounts. It's not like there isn't money.
There is also a lot of hiring of remote people outside the US. The companies figured out how to do remote work during Covid, and they are using it to reduce costs.
Things will probably improve in the next year, but it will be rough for a while.
There are definitely many tech workers out there struggling to find gainful employment based on their current skill set and/or local conditions. There seems to be enough of them that things are not looking particularly rosy at the moment.
Its a nightmare for generalists, newbies, web devs, front end, run of the mill cloud and sysadmin.
Literally worst in history possibly.
Anything that can be easily outsourced to an Indian or Latam candidate
If you have a security clearance that cant be outsourced or use pytorch everyday youre prob fine.
If youre a specialist on some field its never been better. I think ML people are getting 1M comp at OpenAI.
What kind of tech person are you?
I think people are comparing the current market to previous boomtimes which we all knew couldn't last.
To be fair it probably depends on definition of how many years are "past few" years.
Beyond the raw numbers of layoffs, there's clearly a great number of other companies currently have hiring freezes on.
There's simply little to no job postings on right now. Of course it's the worst time of year for listings, and things usually improve in Spring, but it's hard to be optimistic.
Hence depending on general economic situation (and of course specific industry/company). And just like you might be getting sweet offers to change your insurance/ISP/etc, recruiters/head-hunters might be encouraged to hit their KPIs a bit higher the closer to end of quarter/half-year/new years it is.
Also bigger companies might reorg (both teams/people and change plans/KPIs which is usually known as pivot) around new years - for those same reasons.
With all of that - January/February is usually "Let's see how the latest course of course adjustment is going to play out".
Half of January is Xmas/NY hangover. Things just slow to startup again.
Additionally I would say you can't build an economy on advertising alone. I over the past 20 years too much time and money has been invested in advertising which doesn't really make anything. I suspect many businesses purchasing online advertising are basically getting ripped off. A decade ago when search worked effectively you could find the product or service you wanted with a simple Google search. Now you get served a bunch of semi relevant or irrelevant ads cloaked as search results. So there is a big disruption opportunity for someone who can re-invent search to connect people to what they actually want. I can imagine a search or directory device that connects people and businesses to manufacturers, marketers and service providers...both sides could pay for use directly connecting the revenues of the directory operator to its performance. Even today I know in the manufacturing and engineering space I would rather look at McMaster-Carr or Grainger catalogue than Google Spam or look at the website of a still going business I know from 15-20 years ago that doesn't even show up in search results today.
It was not until several years ago that software developers in Europe finally reached the mythical 100K per year compensation range, that's been common in USA for more than a decade before that.
And that's in rather expensive Western Europe (e.g. €1500+ per month for one kid/toddler daycare), and not "cheaper" Southern/Eastern Europe.
So I think it sucks to be relatively junior right now.
To me its sad as I think how well you onboard other team members is one huge differentiator in your dev culture, and points at a healthy team that can readily share knowledge. How its setup now may work for short term problems, but also creates a lot of "bus factors" where crucial functionality depends on 1-2 skilled people.
I also see a bit of getting rid of middle management / product management type layers lately. A sense of wanting to streamline / eliminate alleged "bureaucracy"
What I've seen/heard - is that companies are not hiring (have fewer if any open positions for) seniors.
And in my experience companies focusing on short term (so basically next quarterly earnings call), was always a thing - just that sometimes it was more and sometimes less extreme.
It doesn't help that Google fires several companies worth of people sometimes, and they flood the market, and most of them are good at being hired.
As always, the best thing you can do is be the best engineer you can be. Companies are still hiring, and while supply outstrips demand more than usual, you should always try to be the best unit of supply you can be.
Not deciding based on feelings or opinions or votes, or on chasing opportunities or shirking danger, etc. Practice daily in small decisions, and the big ones will come more easily.
Or say your child?
* Big investors almost never invest the year leading into a general election. They already spent all that money on bribes and lobbying.
* So much of the US had already outsourced a great part of their manufacturing.
* Much of that manufacturing went to china. (be sure the check the news that china is making in the US today)
* We are more politically divided than ever before (I don't think this is mutually exclusive to the US)
* We are experiencing (in the US) the largest cost burdens ever seen for renters source: https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/reports/fil...
* There have been many reports of large lay offs in not just the tech sectors.
* Most of our current employment numbers are politically motivated lies or exaggerations
* AI has pushed a 6% increase requirement on development productivity
* There are vastly more boot camps and junior and mid level developers available in the market.
* Remote work make the market global when it was still very local for many.
I feel like there are many more bullet points to add.
It's possible my interview and other skills have declined, but after being rejected only once in the first 25 years of my career (when I was fresh out of school and terrible at interviewing), I've now been rejected from a half dozen jobs where I got to the panel interview. This included one where they said they planned to make an offer but ended up going with a different candidate. Another where it felt like a perfect match but then they never even got back to me. Another where I bombed a dynamic programming problem that leetcode puts at its most difficult rating. YMMV but I think it's tough out there.
Jobs are in short supply, applicants are numerous. Most interviews are also with managers 10 years younger than I am which may be a compounding factor. That's not an issue for me, but I think it's easier for them to hire someone of a similar age.
I guess its back to good ol' keyword stuff the resume again. jfc
But, it's a bad market, especially for junior.
commenters are wrong and I know no one who were not able to find a job.
Current rates - is another question. They are not that high.
long story short: if you’re a good specialist, you will be good.
What is the unemployment level in your particular skill set or desired profession?
Smart and ambitious people, always have their resume up to date, and are looking. Although this is good advise I do not follow it as I am always delusional and think my current job is the best and no need to look.
My biggest regret looking back, was not changing jobs early when I first started. With 2 years in, I would recommend you look, but be selective.
Remember, you are, from an employer perspective, significantly better if you currently have a job, as opposed to unemployed. So be wary of possible layoffs.
For IT people in the USA you can look at this site: https://www.statista.com/statistics/199995/rates-of-jobless-...
I assume most people who believe it is brutal out there are looking for a job and were laid off. Being laid off is EXTREMELY PAINFUL. We were never taught how to handle it. For most people, myself twice, it was a horrible surprise.
In some of the downturns that unlikely capacity keeps getting new jobs simply by having been the excess capacity at the right places.
I think we are we are deeper into a downturn where almost everyone is seriously trying to filter to capable in the near term and that is extremely hard given that you almost always need actual time at an organization so a measure of useful on day one filters everyone but returning employees.
Then - and only then - does Europe miraculously become interesting. Who knew?
Because that would keep you safe from outsourcing.