1. Western support has become anemic, Ukraine is rationing ammo
2. Russia spent a lot of equipment and casualties to take Avdiivka
3. Navalny's death is likely to be counterproductive to Putin's aims. It appears to be renewing the effort to pass funding in the US & EU
4. Drones are the new way of war, there is a tech race going on. Better than artillery, probably makes current air defense systems obsolete.
5. Taking ground will become increasingly difficult, being a porcupine is much easier with mines and drones.
6. Russia is seeing increased support from the Axis of Authoritarians (China, NKorea, Iran) This has a direct impact in Putin's ability to fire drones and missiles.
7. The Russian Navy and Air Force have had a rather poor showing. Ukraine is making successful strikes deep in Russia. The war is not just on the ground.
8. Winners in large wars are defined more by their economics, production, and logistic capabilities