Think of living like applying a Kalman filter (or being a chemotaxing bacterium?): when you are sure of your path, it is good to commit (the benefit of the straight and narrow is positive, the foregone opportunities near zero), when you are unsure of your path, it is good to keep options open (options are future-you insurance, yes they cost a little to keep but can really come in handy).

On that note I'd advise that school keeps your options open much better than work; the latter usually only offers easy pivots within a discipline, but the former allows painless near-complete pivoting.

(life is much more like playing cards than playing chess: you always get new cards, and you always have to discard cards; you can't just minmax it to 8 plies...)

Don't make your decision in a vacuum; make a short list and visit schools, or at least talk to profs and students. I think you're overthinking now, and if you just talk to several people at several institutions, you'll probably find yourself with a gut ranking.

Think of it as "finding Jacob-institution fit"