We’re getting sued for the homes we built that have unreachable floors and outdoor facing windows placed inscrutably on load bearing interior walls but I feel really good about our legal defense
Debbuging, for example, is harder than programming. And the difficulty is related to the 'amount of code' you are debbuging.
This means it is pretty easy to verify the Copilot's output when he just spits out a couple of lines at a time. But you will have a pretty bad time when you ask ChatGPT for a complete service. Things will not work out and the time you take to fix it will be greater than what you saved in the first place.
That sounds like a nightmare, not an improvement. Really, think about it. It's the same shit as "self driving" cars that need continuous human monitoring. You're taking an relatively engaging task and replacing it with a mind-numbing slog that humans are particularly bad at.
Not to mention the skill of being able to "check work" usually flows from deep experience of "doing work."
> It's way faster to check if a Sudoku puzzle is correct than it is to solve the Sudoku puzzle.
Yeah, and which of those tasks do humans choose to do? I don't see many "100 Solved Sudoku Puzzles To Check" books in the bookstore.
That does not map to instantiating a construction plan from scratch.
"Oh, yeah, that was a fuckup but the AI did it, not me! What, I was supposed to catch it? Well, I blame the AI!"
This seems oddly specific, has this already happened in real life?
The article specifically mentions agriculture, where machine vision has barely been deployed, and the company that is making the automatic pest / weed killer using lasers and MV is still in a "trial".
A case of: When AI is your hammer, everything starts to look like a nail.
Sure, but before half the world decided that "AGI" meant what I always called "ASI", the "G" meant "General", as in it's a general-use tool, so the hammer/nail analogy isn't anything like as apt as when "AI" meant "plays chess and nothing else".
Meanwhile image recognition is already being used to identify weeds to avoid spraying on the entire crop. Combines are somewhat self driving.
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We've had lots and lots of economic growth... but at what cost?
Youtubers who grow their own farm can only do it because it's their full time job. Or all their time is spent on the farm. Growing food is not easy, and would cost way more home grown.
Not something to romanticise. Nor would going out to the woods help, the carbon footprint would be so much higher than being able to have a expensive house with mega efficient everything.
Can't wait to never be able to contact a company again because they want me to talk to their ai shitbot that's designed to trick me into going away and not bothering them.
Don't use it.
>I want to build my own house, grow my own food, make my own shoes.
AI is not stopping you from doing these things.
Show me actual results today, not tomorrow's promises. At least TFA cites some results.
But I have a hard time extrapolating that out further. I suppose I'm not cut out for thought leadership. :)
I installed the new Ubuntu LTS and was trying to install a cargo package and was running into issue. Google/Bing search took me on a tangent. I put in the error in ChatGPT 3.5, got exact apt install to solve the issue and it worked when tried.
A million of these a day is going to have one heck of an effect on the planet.
I am not saying AI fixes the search but the Search Results are hit and miss any way. The real low hanging fruit are the domains, where the existing system is hit and miss.
The AI long case is, that People are also glorified LLMs/Pattern-matching machines. People who can make Computers sing will make AI sing (most likely). For most domains, AI elevates their 'base line' from the existing floor.
landline -> desktop -> mobile is a progression of technologies ?
Maybe "AI" might be able to transform technology, but if thats the demonstration of an example, I don't think the progression works how they think it does.
The implicit assumption seems to be the latter technologies in the list are strictly superior to the former, which is completely false. The article says this:
> Technological leapfrogging occurs when an industry or market (usually an outmoded industry or emerging market) skips a step along the technology transformation chain.
> Instead of learning to use a personal computer and then a mobile phone, you skip right to mobile. In many emerging markets, mobile is the dominant computing paradigm.
That kind of leapfrogging actually seems like a massive handicap. Mobile phones have severe limitations compared to PCs as devices for productive work.
Push button legal contracts, great, we have those already, they are called templates. The problem is not the contract, its the litigation that follows the contract.
> Generative AI is an instantaneous push-button solution. It generates a legal brief or construction plan from scratch. Interacting with software is like chatting to a friend. You don’t have to re-learn your whole process – you simply remove tedious tasks from your to-do list.
Ok ok ok, but thats a could. I mean I can ask a chatbot to make a contract for me, but is it legal, does it have a back door in it that allows something stupid to happen?
Same with Visas, the hard part isn't the form filling, its getting past the burdens of proof.
Where Legal chatbots might be useful, some day, is flagging for odd clauses.
_eventually_ I can see that "AI" will help automate a bunch of legal stuff, but its out of reach of current LLMs, as their inference of implications from text is sketchy at best. Moreover, new laws/contracting terms have less training data, which tends to bias the output in the wrong direction.
Thank you for capturing the state so eloquently. I've asked Bard about how to dilute hydrogen peroxide from 10% (do not touch) to 3% (medical) while producing a specific quantity of the dilute... Results were harmful.
Negligence and duty don’t change and the implementing human (the person checking for mistakes) will be just as liable as the human implementing someone else’s work today.
But true… it is unlikely the AI firms or the suits that force it into every nook and cranny they can will ever be held accountable for the mistakes it will inevitably make. Not without a couple catastrophes first.
This still increases your productivity dramatically, and shift you into the role of editor rather than writer.
The master engineer isn't the one who does all the hours and hours of nitty gritty design work. She just does review and makes adjustments as needed.
The junior engineers would be the ones reviewing the outputs. The senior engineer would be the one reviewing what is still constructively the junior engineer’s work.
Precisely, but you need far fewer of these people, which is why this is being so heavily pushed.
> Precisely, but you need far fewer of these people, which is why this is being so heavily pushed.
That sounds like extremely specious reasoning to me, probably due to working backward from technology to application in order to hype the former.
Firstly, is it's anyone experience that it's easier to understand an unreliable system that was barfed out of some unreliable process (doesn't have to be an LLM, could be a bad offshore team), than it is to try to build it right from the start? It's still garbage out. It's like abusing the QA process by saying quality is only their job, then carelessly pumping out crap work and expecting them to catch all the mistakes.
Secondly, where are these "fewer" skilled people supposed to come from? The technology, if embraced this way, will have the effect of cutting off the the skils pipeline. That would work in the short/medium term, but in a generation when you start to see lots of retirements, you'll hit a skills dead end.
When have corporations ever cared about the next generation, let alone anything beyond the current quarter?
Let's engage with reality a moment: A country like Kenya "leapfrogged" credit cards because they failed to implement them on a useful timeline compared to other countries. Leapfrogging by falling behind isn't the great example the article wants it to be.
"We believe that the same way mobile payments leapfrogged credit cards in some markets, and mobile phones leapfrogged desktop computers in developing economies, AI too will (at least initially) leapfrog more legacy technologies that don’t have a “good enough” palliative (I mean alternative) in place."
>Leapfrogging by falling behind isn't the great example the article wants it to be.
It doesn't really matter if you end up with a better solution anyway, it's really the point of the article.
Think mobile payments. South East Asia has mobile payments with 0% additional fees. Meanwhile the West is shackled to cards, adding 2-3% for what? Yet stuck with cards for a while due to not starting with mobile.
If that's the case, how to the mobile payments companies make money?
> Meanwhile the West is shackled to cards, adding 2-3% for what? Yet stuck with cards for a while due to not starting with mobile.
IIRC, the 2-3% fees aren't due to technology, they're due to regulation and legal agreements. And it's mostly a spat between the merchants and banks, because most cards (in the US, at least) have "rewards" that remit a portion of those fees to the card user (e.g. all my cards pay me at least 1% cash back, and more in certain circumstances depending on the card).
I always have to remind myself that the motivations of the people involved in the tech industry today differ substantially from those from before the .com boom.
For many, "tech" doesn't actually mean the technology and its engineering applications. It's entirely the business and investment world and spin-land built as a huge shell around it. It doesn't matter if it "fails" from an engineering POV if a significant % of shareholders can grow a portfolio.
And I have met a lot of Amish people, they seem pretty content. They build furniture and barns. Drive horse carriages.
This is just my vision of an "ideal" life and more importantly an ideal _society_ - it's not as though I'm actively trying to move out to the woods or become Amish.
I just wish for less endless technological advancement and more self-sufficiency.