Electric Cars Are Suddenly Becoming Affordable(nytimes.com) |
Electric Cars Are Suddenly Becoming Affordable(nytimes.com) |
Used EVs have been affordable for years. In fact, cars like the Nissan Leaf have depreciated so quickly that they’re a downright bargain (as long as your use case lines up with the limited range).
This isn't true of newer Leafs. You can easily find a decent used one closer to $20K.
The supercharger experience is actually quite pleasant, and I expect it'll get even better with time as businesses realize that having a constant stream of customers with 30m to kill is a lucrative market.
Also, the number of level 2 chargers is massive. Download PlugShare and look around. And Superchargers and Electrify America chargers are common. It's really not hard any more.
Let's remember that the median income in the US is $37,585. Half of people make less. Don't spend more than you make in a year on a new vehicle.
Chinese EVs are dumping because China's economy is collapsing, forcing them to dump prices because there's not enough Chinese demand.
China is now exporting all of their excess inventory to Europe and beginning to make plans to export all this inventory to the USA. And USA is rejecting it.
China has overbuilt their EV market, and continues to over-invest and builld too many EVs. USA is already pissed off at this turn of events, and European politics are beginning to grow more protective as they are also seeing this ridiculous amount of inventories come over to their countries.
China bet too much on exports and has begun to piss off everyone else.
Global light vehicle market is almost 90 million units/pa. Ship every unit you can to every market that will accept those units (Tesla does this today, recalibrating exports as demand and incentives change; China built units are currently being offloaded in Canada due to demand sag). Of course you're going to have less sophisticated economies (who did not prioritize rapid investment in building EV manufacturing capacity up) upset you made prudent supply chain and manufacturing investments while they allowed their domestic concerns focus instead on profits (see: near term historical developed automaker share buyback volumes). If the US and Europe close their markets to Chinese EVs, Chinese EVs will consume any overseas TAM US and Europe automakers had a chance at (Mexico, Central and South America, parts of Asia and Africa, etc).
Global factory to the world being the factory to the world and the unsophisticated are all surprised pikachu. US economy is only ~18M units/pa, Europe ~10.5M units/pa, the rest of the world (~60M units/pa) is for the taking under strong trade protectionism regimes. This ignores the potential global TAM increase due to lower cost EVs inducing previously unaccounted for demand.
Granted, they're 10+ year old cars and can only go ~50 miles on a charge (originally 80 miles but the battery degrades). But if you want a cheap car and live in a city or a close suburb, especially if you can charge your car at work, it's a doable option. These fully electric cars require less maintenance so they actually are cheap to run.
Average new vehicle price is $48k, but that's of course skewed by very high priced vehicles like pickups.
My I-PACE cost me over $80k when it was a one-of-a-kind vehicle, an EV from a mature car manufacturer with a luxury interior, sporty performance, hatchback, AWD, and heat pump. It won the 2019 World Car of the Year award (https://www.worldcarawards.com/web/2019_results.asp). It can easily make it the 150 miles from Seattle to Yakima over the PNW Cascade mountain pass in driving snow without needing to stop to charge. It was a bit of a stretch for me to spend that much on a car, but to me it was -- and still is -- a great car.
It wasn't too long before some other EVs with similar characteristics entered the marketplace, and at lower prices. Probably the biggest differences include slightly more splashy range on the spec sheet, although I would argue Jaguar is being more conservative than they really need to be with their advertised specs, and a faster charge rate. In other words, the newer EVs can get from point A to point B with less time spent at the rapid chargers.
Therefore my I-PACE's auction value is almost down to $20k, in spite of being low mileage and in excellent condition. I still get as much range out of it as I did the day I bought it. There are a few reasons for the precipitous price drop, but I suspect the overriding one is that nobody wants an EV that charges at 80kW.
Personally I use my gas car when doing road trips that would otherwise require a rapid charging stop, and I exclusively charge the I-PACE overnight in my garage. So I guess it's still worth a heck of a lot more than $20k to me, which is why I don't think I'll part ways with it until something really expensive breaks on it.
Meanwhile those who have EVs that don't use Tesla's supercharger network are stuck with the likes of Electrify America when they're road tripping. In that case I'm not sure your overall experience is going to be all that better whether your car is capable of pulling 80kW or 150kW at 35% SoC. I imagine people in 6-figure Taycans capable of pulling 270kW sitting in the same line as the $15k used Bolts capable of pulling 50kW for one of only 2 functioning chargers at an Electrify America site in a rural Walmart parking lot to open up, and then the charger ends up only being able to put out 100kW if you're lucky. The charging capabilities of your EV don't mean much if you can't take advantage of them.
Maybe the "unwashed masses" are starting to hear about the horror show that non-Tesla charging networks are as non-enthusiasts are suckered into buying one off the lot without the dealership being completely forthright with them about the true state of things, and that's being reflected in the relative price of used EVs.
Reminder that your taxes pay for the subsidies that make the prices on EVs even anywhere near that "affordable" range.
Did we read the same article? NYTimes is claiming that "$20k" (or rather, $20k after up to $7500 in federal rebates) is affordable.
Which, it kind of is? That's a brand new fully electric for like $400/month.
And we're seeing it in the used market as well. (2019/2020 Chevy Bolts are now going for like $15k or ~$350/month which puts them well into affordability for people around a $40k/yr income.
The federal reserve's calculation of household income is probably more useful at $74k: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
And I have never paid more than $5k for a car personally, but the average new car in America is ~$47k so $40k is not actually out of alignment with what most people are buying.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a43611570/average-new-car-...
You are correct that people shouldn't spend so much on new cars, but the status quo is that they are. Reporting on prices isn't a bubble as much as just a statement of what's going on.
With that said, the Tesla Y and 3 are the best selling cars in the US.
Please check your 5 year old info before posting.
> Recently, Mr. Lawrence said, customers have been snapping up used Teslas for a little over $20,000, after applying a $4,000 federal tax credit.
...
> Carmakers including Tesla, Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, the owner of Jeep, have announced plans for electric vehicles that would sell new for as little as $25,000.
Whoever buys it when I sell it later this year will get an amazing car.
China obviously has policies that benefit exports. But I think they're going to far with this EV thing, and they might be realizing that they've gone too far with their policies... But too late. Their industry and internal politics are designed to reward this overproduction.
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The real issue is internal Chinese demand has dropped off a cliff since COVID-19 and Evergrande issues combined in a terrible storm the past few years. Chinas internal economy has never recovered so they only have Exports now to rely on.
But now they're hammering exports to the point of causing geopolitical issues.
China does not want to be so reliant on foreign markets either. They're a proud nation that wants to stand by itself. But they have nothing but exports holding them up right now.
1. to have stabilized supply and prices
2. be the first to ramp up the production of new tech and reap benefits of scale
3. to complain about taxes used as above :)
if i had to drive more, an hour on a 240v L2 charger would cover it.
there's a HUGE amount of fear-uncertainty-doubt in the news which looks conspicuously like propaganda, and one can guess where it originates. it sure doesn't originate in those of us nerds who are 10 years into pure electric, and absolutely not for those with 240v at home.
btw in just shy of 80,000 miles, the maintenance costs on the first ev was all of about 200 dollars, and that's a bmw. had to buy tires too, so not counting that, since everyone buys tires.
> Central and South America, parts of Asia
Brazil is all into Ethanol and is the largest economy of South America IIRC. India is highly protectionist, so good luck selling things there.
Once we knock out the obvious contenders, its not very clear who will buy this massive pile of Chinese EVs. Africa? They barely have electric infrastructure. Who will build all the power-plants so that EVs become feasible there? Especially if we assume the richer parts of Africa (ex: Egypt and South Africa) moving with Britain like they tend to do.
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Tesla has already a growing inventory problem, in part due to Gigafactory Shanghai directly competing with Chinese vehicles like BYD. Tesla has been forced to collapse the prices of its entire lineup in China/Europe, while NA demand is also falling due to overproduction.
I dunno, its not very clear that China overproducing EVs is a good move. There's a lot of risks here.
https://electrek.co/2024/06/03/global-pledge-triple-renewabl...
https://www.iea.org/reports/cop28-tripling-renewable-capacit...
China, probably. It's kinda their thing:
Of course, it appears somewhat controversial how successful these projects have been.