Controversial opinion but the problem with Gen AI is that we conflate intelligence with competence and expertise. This is a common ailment of the exceptionally intelligent.

There is an over indexing on mental capacity, and an underappreciation for grinding and actual, erm, hard work and understanding…

I see this a lot with learning a foreign language. Intelligent people assume it will be simple for them, because they are intelligent. Spoiler, actually less intelligent folk tend to have less ego, ergo they progress much faster (personal experience, not gospel).

I don’t really care about AGI. I care about how good you are at your job. And the fact of the matter is, Gen AI isn’t that good at all.

Generative AI is misunderstood as a sentient tool that is highly intelligent and thus capable of expert output. Truth is, Generative AI is capable of performing enormous amounts of work to an intermediate level.

Given the speed of the output, we forgive Generative AI for errors and inaccuracies that we wouldn’t begin to tolerate in any walk of life, i.e. from absolutely anybody who actually knew what they were doing. "Sorry sir, it wasn't the correct arm I amputated, but it was still an arm!"

Is AGI really imminent? Probably, but only to a specific and flawed definition. There is an important distinction. Intelligence is not a synonym or equal to competence. We are conflating intelligence with expertise and competence. This is a common problem in hyper-intelligent people.

These algorithms may well reach superhuman levels of intelligence. Does it matter? Regards actual expertise and output, they are mediocre at best.

To a beginner in any field, intermediate is impressive. Unparalleled speed alongside something that resembles (but is not equal to) competence has the effect that those who are starting in any field are in awe of this tool. They are the confident graduate, unknowingly ruining the professional competence of your business.

Full blog post about why I think GenAI is cracking nuts with a sledgehammer